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Old September 16th, 2015, 10:28 AM   #10021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
So who would be taking these commuter trains? In the West, incomes are high enough to sustain premium services, such as long-distance express rail, and commuters can still save even if they live far and pay more to get around. But as I have already pointed out, long distance commutes are expensive even using the cheap K trains, and are not affordable as a proportion to the average urban income and home rental prices. Perhaps you can give an analysis why my numbers are not relevant.

China is good at building infrastructure in a short period of time. The best focus now is to improve connectivity within the city, where people actually live, rather than build a line to nowhere that will sit deserted and unused for who knows how many years.
I thought I wrote it pretty clearly. Connectivity WITHIN Shanghai or Beijing is NOT adequate BECAUSE existing options are too slow, too crowded and have too many stops. Traveling longer distances is a pain there. Those problems are addressed by commuter rail the like of RER, London Crossrail (and existing commuter rail lines). Parisians don't just take RER to commute to/from suburbs but take it within the city itself if they need to go a longer distance. This is a pretty simple principle which works in any large city. Denying that this is needed in China is just beyond me. It's beyond obvious that such systems are desperately needed ALREADY let alone in 20 years. Metro system the like of Shanghai or Beijing alone cannot cope regardless of how much you expand it as perfectly demonstrated by Beijing AND Shanghai. What's there not to understand?
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Old September 16th, 2015, 10:44 AM   #10022
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
I would even argue 24.5 RMB per way is too expensive for the average commuter. This amounts to 980 RMB a month, almost 25% of the average urban worker's wage (4000 RMB).

The bus costs about 60 RMB, roughly 25% cheaper than the CRH ticket.

From the source I provided earlier (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchin...t_18781005.htm), average rents in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are RMB 42 and RMB 52 per sq m per month respectively. Hence, a modest 50 sq m unit would only cost 2100-2600 RMB a month. So do you save money commuting between the two and paying, in addition, 40% of the monthly rental on transport?

Clearly, the numbers don't add up. It doesn't make sense to make intercity commutes for the average urbanite in China's wealthy cities.
You omitted a crucial specification. Daily commuters, for an intercity distance of 137 km.
A daily commute would be too expensive, yes, 1078 yuan per month by K train, 2640 yuan per month by bus.
But a weekly commute would be 528 yuan per month by bus, 216 yuan per month by K train.
Sounds more feasible?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori
Connectivity WITHIN Shanghai or Beijing is NOT adequate BECAUSE existing options are too slow, too crowded and have too many stops. Traveling longer distances is a pain there. Those problems are addressed by commuter rail the like of RER, London Crossrail (and existing commuter rail lines). Parisians don't just take RER to commute to/from suburbs but take it within the city itself if they need to go a longer distance. This is a pretty simple principle which works in any large city. Denying that this is needed in China is just beyond me. It's beyond obvious that such systems are desperately needed ALREADY l
Agreed. In my city, not a large one:
From the edge of the city to central city, 13 km distance.
By commuter train, electrified, speed limit 70 km/h most of the distance, 8 intermediate stops
20 minutes
Express bus, speed limit 50 km/h (city streets) all the way, 11 intermediate stops
30 minutes
Ordinary bus, same speed limit, 22 intermediate stops
38 minutes.
Same price (covered by city commuter pass).
If your origin and destination are near an existing rail line, rail saves a lot of time.
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Old September 16th, 2015, 04:59 PM   #10023
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
You omitted a crucial specification. Daily commuters, for an intercity distance of 137 km.
A daily commute would be too expensive, yes, 1078 yuan per month by K train, 2640 yuan per month by bus.
But a weekly commute would be 528 yuan per month by bus, 216 yuan per month by K train.
Sounds more feasible?

Agreed. In my city, not a large one:
From the edge of the city to central city, 13 km distance.
By commuter train, electrified, speed limit 70 km/h most of the distance, 8 intermediate stops
20 minutes
Express bus, speed limit 50 km/h (city streets) all the way, 11 intermediate stops
30 minutes
Ordinary bus, same speed limit, 22 intermediate stops
38 minutes.
Same price (covered by city commuter pass).
If your origin and destination are near an existing rail line, rail saves a lot of time.
So you do a weekly commute and pay double the rent. That is logical? You now have to rent a home in both cities. Silly option.
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Old September 16th, 2015, 05:08 PM   #10024
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
I thought I wrote it pretty clearly. Connectivity WITHIN Shanghai or Beijing is NOT adequate BECAUSE existing options are too slow, too crowded and have too many stops. Traveling longer distances is a pain there. Those problems are addressed by commuter rail the like of RER, London Crossrail (and existing commuter rail lines). Parisians don't just take RER to commute to/from suburbs but take it within the city itself if they need to go a longer distance. This is a pretty simple principle which works in any large city. Denying that this is needed in China is just beyond me. It's beyond obvious that such systems are desperately needed ALREADY let alone in 20 years. Metro system the like of Shanghai or Beijing alone cannot cope regardless of how much you expand it as perfectly demonstrated by Beijing AND Shanghai. What's there not to understand?
So you are proposing expensive express lines that get people where they want in 2 stops and yet haven't considered whether they can afford it?

I would expect big city mass transit systems to be crowded during rush hour. At least Chinese cities have the ability to expand their networks to give passengers more options, and backups with redundancy.
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Old September 16th, 2015, 05:20 PM   #10025
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So you do a weekly commute and pay double the rent. That is logical? You now have to rent a home in both cities. Silly option.
In China especially, and in much of the world also, you have to pay double the rent anyway.
Because the migrants cannot get rid of the home they come from. Especially in China, where a lot of them cannot get a hukou and are not allowed to bring along their children and parents, even if they could afford to rent a home for children and parents and the parents wanted to leave their homes in their old age and move to the city with their children and grandchildren.
Where do the Chinese go for New Year? Home. Even if they only go home once a year, somebody is stuck paying the rent for the rest of the year, PLUS the rent for the dormitory in the city where the worker sleeps while at work.
The residence costs are the same - two residences, one in the city for the lone worker, the other at home for the whole family - no matter if the worker commutes once a year or once a week.
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Old September 16th, 2015, 05:47 PM   #10026
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Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
In China especially, and in much of the world also, you have to pay double the rent anyway.
Because the migrants cannot get rid of the home they come from. Especially in China, where a lot of them cannot get a hukou and are not allowed to bring along their children and parents, even if they could afford to rent a home for children and parents and the parents wanted to leave their homes in their old age and move to the city with their children and grandchildren.
Where do the Chinese go for New Year? Home. Even if they only go home once a year, somebody is stuck paying the rent for the rest of the year, PLUS the rent for the dormitory in the city where the worker sleeps while at work.
The residence costs are the same - two residences, one in the city for the lone worker, the other at home for the whole family - no matter if the worker commutes once a year or once a week.
Migrants have land in their home province. They are indigeneous to the area and have local hukou. Rural land is collectively owned in the Chinese system (http://www.economist.com/news/briefi...e-looms-larger). So rural land cannot be freely bought and sold. When they move to the city, they need to pay rent if they live outside, or live on-site in company-provided dormitories. Don't apply your perceptions about Western property rights and land ownership to rural China.

These migrants move hundreds if not thousands of km away to the cities. They won't be making trips home on the weekend. It simply is too far. They save it for Chinese New Year. These migrants are most certainly not Guangzhou hukou residents moving to Shenzhen for work!
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Last edited by hkskyline; September 16th, 2015 at 05:57 PM.
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Old September 16th, 2015, 07:37 PM   #10027
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
So you are proposing expensive express lines that get people where they want in 2 stops and yet haven't considered whether they can afford it?

I would expect big city mass transit systems to be crowded during rush hour. At least Chinese cities have the ability to expand their networks to give passengers more options, and backups with redundancy.
Pricing for slow or express services would typically be the same and distance-based just like elsewhere. So residents would afford it just like they afford the metro today. Only that it would be faster and generally more convenient and efficient. We're not trying to invent a bicycle here. Just pointing out very obvious shortcomings of transit systems which in the case of Beijing, Shanghai and perhaps other cities (certainly so in the future) is inadequacy due to overcrowding and slowness due to enormous size of those cities. For some reason you really don't seem to grasp the concept of express commuter services. Which is a big surprise to me hearing it from somebody who is supposedly interested in urban mass transit.
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Old September 16th, 2015, 08:49 PM   #10028
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
These migrants move hundreds if not thousands of km away to the cities. They won't be making trips home on the weekend. It simply is too far. They save it for Chinese New Year.
Even for them, it would be an improvement if they can start to go home twice a year - not only for New Year, but also for National Day Golden Week.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
These migrants are most certainly not Guangzhou hukou residents moving to Shenzhen for work!
How about Cangzhou natives moving to Tianjin to study and then work? A lot of people come from rural areas and small towns of coastal provinces, a few hundred or a few tens of kilometres from a major city.
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Old September 16th, 2015, 08:53 PM   #10029
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Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
Pricing for slow or express services would typically be the same and distance-based just like elsewhere. So residents would afford it just like they afford the metro today. Only that it would be faster and generally more convenient and efficient. We're not trying to invent a bicycle here. Just pointing out very obvious shortcomings of transit systems which in the case of Beijing, Shanghai and perhaps other cities (certainly so in the future) is inadequacy due to overcrowding and slowness due to enormous size of those cities. For some reason you really don't seem to grasp the concept of express commuter services. Which is a big surprise to me hearing it from somebody who is supposedly interested in urban mass transit.
Rail pricing is not solely based on distance. If you take the CRH network for example, G trains are more expensive than D ones for the same city pairs because they are faster. You can easily look up Suzhou to Shanghai to see the difference, which is quite significant.

Keep in mind, as I have pointed out, average commuting distances are not long in China. 19km for a daily commute in Beijing is actually a fairly short distance, and Beijing had the longest already. I don't understand how express trains can help people move around when people don't live so far out in the first place. The 5th ring road is only 5 subway stops (9 km) from Guomao, one of the CBDs on the 3rd ring.

You need to do the math and understand where and how people live and travel before thinking of the wrong solutions based on what happens to other cities outside China.
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Old September 16th, 2015, 08:56 PM   #10030
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Average commuter distance in Beijing in 1990 probably was 5km. In 1970 it probably was 2 km. Your point is?

It will increase once express rail wil be built. Just as it increased with rapid metro expansion. And it will be priced just like it is in London, Berlin or Munich i.e. shared with other modes of rail transit. CRH services have nothing to do with that because it's not urban commuter rail but a longer distance rail. I dont't understand why you keep mentioning it.

Last edited by Pansori; September 16th, 2015 at 09:01 PM.
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Old September 16th, 2015, 08:58 PM   #10031
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Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Even for them, it would be an improvement if they can start to go home twice a year - not only for New Year, but also for National Day Golden Week.

How about Cangzhou natives moving to Tianjin to study and then work? A lot of people come from rural areas and small towns of coastal provinces, a few hundred or a few tens of kilometres from a major city.
If they can afford to, they would be heading home far more frequently during the other major Chinese festivals. But the reality is their wages are low and they cannot afford the luxury.

If you look at how the Spring Festival rush for the trains works every year, you will quickly realize the short commute migrants are a small minority. Are you saying the Cangzhou - Tianjin group is representative of all migrant commutes across China? Let's see some numbers.

A quick look through research on migrant movements in China points out the interprovincial migrant moved 840km in 2005 : http://www.lse.ac.uk/government/rese...WP_2011_07.pdf
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Old September 16th, 2015, 09:07 PM   #10032
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Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
Average commuter distance in Beijing in 1990 probably was 5km. In 1970 it probably was 2 km. Your point is?

It will increase once express rail wil be built. Just as it increased with rapid metro expansion. And it will be priced just like it is in London, Berlin or Munich i.e. shared with other modes of rail transit. CRH services have nothing to do with that because it's not urban commuter rail but a longer distance rail. I dont't understand why you keep mentioning it.
If the average worker moves 9-10km per direction each day, subways are sufficiently efficient to take them where they need to be. Express trains don't offer marginal time savings and the cost increment would deter users. It is simple economics.

China's urbanization is slowing as the real estate boom ends and we enter a cycle of correction. Cities have been overbuilt and we have seen examples of ghost towns - classic cases of wastage. The demographics are skewed by the migrant populations, which can't afford their home, so building a 6th and 7th ring and beyond is not going to attract them to stay. We see people aren't commuting that far on average, so why should we suddenly build express trains when people don't need it, and won't pay for it, for a city that is unlikely to sprawl out so much more in the near term?

Have you looked at the average housing rental cost and compared it to the proportion of transport costs vs income to understand how people travel within the city?

Have you also studied the hukou system to understand why these migrants won't be able to stay and be a permanent increase to the population?
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Old September 16th, 2015, 09:19 PM   #10033
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
If you look at how the Spring Festival rush for the trains works every year, you will quickly realize the short commute migrants are a small minority.
Do short commute migrants now travel by train, or by bus?
Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Are you saying the Cangzhou - Tianjin group is representative of all migrant commutes across China? Let's see some numbers.

A quick look through research on migrant movements in China points out the interprovincial migrant moved 840km in 2005 : http://www.lse.ac.uk/government/rese...WP_2011_07.pdf
And that same study, page 32 of PDF, 31 of the work, shows that intraprovincial migrants were over twice the number of interprovincial migrants.
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Old September 16th, 2015, 09:28 PM   #10034
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Do short commute migrants now travel by train, or by bus?

And that same study, page 32 of PDF, 31 of the work, shows that intraprovincial migrants were over twice the number of interprovincial migrants.
Page 20 - interprovincial migrants as a % of the floating population has increased from 2000 to 2005 for the key main cities/wealthy areas : Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and marginally in Guangdong.

Page 31 - there were more interprovincial migrants than intraprovincial migrants in the key main cities/wealthy areas in 2005 : Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Guangdong

Don't think you should count the likes of Inner Mongolia as we are talking about the urban infrastructure effects.
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Old September 16th, 2015, 11:08 PM   #10035
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If the average worker moves 9-10km per direction each day, subways are sufficiently efficient to take them where they need to be. Express trains don't offer marginal time savings and the cost increment would deter users. It is simple economics.
How on earth an average worker can move a longer distance when there are no means to do that? Also who measures commute within one city in km anyway? Commutes are measured in time spent to commute not distance. I don't care how many km is to my work as long as I know how long it will take for me to get there. I really fail to see any sense in yor arguments. They don't hold any substance let alone 'economics'.
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Old September 16th, 2015, 11:37 PM   #10036
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China to invest $US 22.4bn in three new lines
http://www.railjournal.com/index.php...ml?channel=540

CHINA's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) gave the go-ahead on September 11 for three new lines in central and southwest China, representing a total investment of Yuan 142.8bn ($US 22.4bn).

The largest of the three projects is the 818km Zhengzhou - Wanzhou high-speed line, which will run via Nanyang, Xingshan, Badong, and Wushan. The line will be designed for 350km/h operation, although the initial maximum speed will be 300km/h, with a design capacity of 60 million passengers per year. The total budget for the project is Yuan 118bn, including Yuan 3.6bn for rolling stock. Construction of the Zhengzhou - Xiangyang section will take four years to complete and the remainder of the line will be completed within six years.

In the southwestern province of Yunnan, the NDRC has approved two new lines totalling more than 300km. The 128.5km Maitreya - Mengzi line has a budget of Yuan 9.2bn, including Yuan 420m for rolling stock and will be designed to carry up to 40 passenger trains per day and 10 million tonnes of freight per year. The line is expected to open within six years.

The 201.8km Dali - Lincang line will be designed to accommodate up to 30 passenger trains per day and 10 million tonnes of freight per year. The total projected investment is Yuan 15.1bn, including Yuan 430m for rolling stock. Construction will take five-and-a-half years to complete. Both lines will be electrified and designed for 160km/h operation.

These two projects are a continuation of China's policy of developing the rail network in Yunnan. Last October the NDRC approved the construction of two new lines which will link the province with Myanmar and Laos.
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Old September 16th, 2015, 11:45 PM   #10037
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Cleaning a HSR carriage in 5 minutes (not a Youtube video, so don't know how to embed)
http://www.china-railway.com.cn/xwdt...831_50445.html
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Old September 17th, 2015, 04:07 AM   #10038
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If subway lines are overcrowded and reach further and further, taking ever longer for people to get from A to B, then it makes perfect sense to supplement those lines with commuter rail lines. Even in China.

I really don't get the discussion here.
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Old September 17th, 2015, 07:22 AM   #10039
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Interesting discussion/debate. I dont have facts to back it up, just opinion, but maybe the transport planners thought that with the extraordiarily rapid development of chinese mega cities -and their density-meant that they would concentrate their invest in super sized metros.

As an example by 2020 shanghai 800km long and beijing 1050km long, are planned to both be longer ( by line length) than the next longest metro, london by a factor of 2. Somewhat equivelent perhaps to Seoul with 331km of metro and 987.5km in total including commuter rail.
Apparently Shanghai even plans to expand their metro to join up with suzhou and wuxis metros in the future O.o

Perhaps they hope to get by in the cities with advances in technology, increasing speed and acceleration of trainsets , control-allowing more trains per hour and investing in mass electric BRT and or LRT systems as well in less dense areas.

On an even larger scale, one megalopolis area of china eg. beijing-tianjin-hebei have plans for 1000km of suburban rail line serving 30-70 km out from beijing centre with 160 kph trainsets and cities 70-150 km apart served by high speed intercity trains. This might be the future the planners envision for the other megalopolis areas like pearl river delta, yangtze river delta etc...
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Old September 17th, 2015, 09:41 AM   #10040
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As an example by 2020 shanghai 800km long and beijing 1050km long, are planned to both be longer ( by line length) than the next longest metro, london by a factor of 2. Somewhat equivelent perhaps to Seoul with 331km of metro and 987.5km in total including commuter rail.
Apparently Shanghai even plans to expand their metro to join up with suzhou and wuxis metros in the future O.o
Railway between Shanghai and Suzhou is there and has been there for over a century. Where are the commuter stations on that line?
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On an even larger scale, one megalopolis area of china eg. beijing-tianjin-hebei have plans for 1000km of suburban rail line serving 30-70 km out from beijing centre with 160 kph trainsets and cities 70-150 km apart served by high speed intercity trains. This might be the future the planners envision for the other megalopolis areas like pearl river delta, yangtze river delta etc...
Where are commuter trains, and commuter stations, between Beijing and Tianjin?
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