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Old September 22nd, 2015, 04:00 PM   #10061
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Old September 23rd, 2015, 03:31 AM   #10062
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Train 6451 travels 2:27 for 109 km, average speed incl. stops 45 km/h.
C trains Beijing-Tianjin nonstop travel 33 minutes for 120 km, average speed 218 km/h.
There is plenty of space for trains with average speed 70 or 100 km/h including stops. And these should be much cheaper than the 218 km/h ones.
How cheap? And how affordable?

With average urban incomes at 4000 RMB a month, I don't see much room for a successful commuter train even if it is priced at 10 RMB a trip (400 RMB a month, or 10% of income).
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Old September 23rd, 2015, 03:37 AM   #10063
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You're looking at averages and you are acting like things are static. Plenty of people earn more, and wages are rising.

The fact that metro lines reach out further and further and are getting more and more crowded shows there is ample demand for commuter rail. If you currently travel 30 km by metro with about 30 stops, you would probably love to travel 30 km with about 5-10 stops. Wouldn't have to be more expensive than the metro ticket, but you would definitely be willing to pay a little extra for the time saved.
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Old September 23rd, 2015, 03:55 AM   #10064
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silly_Walks View Post
You're looking at averages and you are acting like things are static. Plenty of people earn more, and wages are rising.

The fact that metro lines reach out further and further and are getting more and more crowded shows there is ample demand for commuter rail. If you currently travel 30 km by metro with about 30 stops, you would probably love to travel 30 km with about 5-10 stops. Wouldn't have to be more expensive than the metro ticket, but you would definitely be willing to pay a little extra for the time saved.
Urban planning needs to address the typical average working family's concerns. Transport and spatial developments should not be geared towards the ultra-rich, as these people probably drive anyway, so will rely less on transport. They will also be more likely to afford inner city expensive housing so the need for long-distance cheap rail decreases even further.

The average income data is as recent as what is available.

You have failed to address the fact that the average commute distance is actually low (Beijing was the longest at 19km), which may mean the trains are packed because of many short-distance commuters, and not long-distance ones. This is crucial in planning whether long-distance commute lines are required. Based on the average income and average housing cost in China, long-distance commutes are a silly notion and utterly unaffordable to the average worker. Would a long-distance express line makes sense when the average person travels 9.5km one way? A subway line can easily make that distance efficiently with a few stops.
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Old September 23rd, 2015, 04:09 AM   #10065
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Nobody is talking about the ultra rich.

And you're talking about average commute distances. With cities of around 20 million people, there are still a LOT of people ABOVE that average. Do you know how averages work? The average person likes football.... so there's no need for tennis? That's rather strange logic.

In the meantime, commuters are having to move to further and further ring roads (Beijing) to be able to find affordable housing.


But sure, if you want to think China is a static place with only poor people and nobody commutes, and averages are maximums, go ahead
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Old September 23rd, 2015, 04:35 AM   #10066
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silly_Walks View Post
Nobody is talking about the ultra rich.

And you're talking about average commute distances. With cities of around 20 million people, there are still a LOT of people ABOVE that average. Do you know how averages work? The average person likes football.... so there's no need for tennis? That's rather strange logic.

In the meantime, commuters are having to move to further and further ring roads (Beijing) to be able to find affordable housing.


But sure, if you want to think China is a static place with only poor people and nobody commutes, and averages are maximums, go ahead
The study that produced these figures said the average was skewed by some ultra-long-distance commuters. So this gives comfort the true "average" typical commute is far less. I also provided an analysis earlier for Beijing that the 5th ring road is actually not that far from the Guomao CBD and subway coverage is efficient enough.

I don't see any other statistic that gives a better picture of commuting patterns than the average available. Why don't you produce one? We build cities not for the tail end of the distribution, but to benefit the masses (the average).

Incomes have risen in China, but not to the extent that a 10% income given to commuting would make more sense now, especially when the economy has slowed down tremendously of late. Please provide some figures to prove me wrong.
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Old September 23rd, 2015, 05:15 AM   #10067
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Chinese cities are generally compact. Beijing's 5th ring is actually not that far from the CBD, but there is a stigma to living far away, unlike in the West. We don't have inner city decay or middle class flight to suburbia in Asian cities.
European cities are also compact and people generally like the dense urban lifestyle, that doesn't hinder families with higher disposable income to buy a house with a garden in the suburbs. If you can triple or quadruple your living space then most people will reason around having to commute somewhat longer.

I think middle class flight to suburbia will happen once the disposable income does make it viable and as long as the commute is reasonable. But China isn't there yet, maybe in another decade or so.
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Old September 23rd, 2015, 05:44 AM   #10068
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Originally Posted by gincan View Post
I think middle class flight to suburbia will happen once the disposable income does make it viable and as long as the commute is reasonable. But China isn't there yet, maybe in another decade or so.
Exactly, but it's cheaper to build infrastructure now. HKSkyline thinks China is a static place, where only 2 types of people live: the poor living next to the factory, and the ultra-rich.

Time will tell if the Chinese are really such an exotic, alien species as he thinks, to whom global housing patterns do not apply.
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Old September 23rd, 2015, 05:49 AM   #10069
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silly_Walks View Post
Exactly, but it's cheaper to build infrastructure now. HKSkyline thinks China is a static place, where only 2 types of people live: the poor living next to the factory, and the ultra-rich.

Time will tell if the Chinese are really such an exotic, alien species as he thinks, to whom global housing patterns do not apply.
There are plenty of other priorities where valuable infrastructure dollars should go rather than spend it on a line that nobody can afford to use. Intensifying the existing urban subway network is crucial to create redundancy and increased options to alleviate crowding. That is far more important.

We cannot anticipate when suburban flight will happen, and even in the richest cities in the south where economic reforms began (Guangdong), we don't see richer middle-class families move into single family homes far from the city. This is not really an Asian thing. If millions of people start doing that just like what happened in Europe and North America, then we will see an ecological disaster, and building express commuter rail will be even more silly when residents will just drive from their little gardens in the city.

If you followed the Chinese housing market in the past 10 years, you will quickly realize global historical patterns don't apply here. This is driven by a cultural notion of owning your own piece of land, and muddled by the hukou system that applies to a substantial percentage of the urban population. Hence, I'm even brave enough to say whoever tries to apply a London or New York housing practice to Beijing and Shanghai is utterly stupid.
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Old September 23rd, 2015, 07:26 AM   #10070
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Urban planning needs to address the typical average working family's concerns. Transport and spatial developments should not be geared towards the ultra-rich, as these people probably drive anyway, so will rely less on transport.
Ultra-rich are the people who donīt drive because they can afford to hire chauffeurs.
Since transport developments should not be geared towards rich, who can afford to drive, roads ought not to be built.
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Old September 24th, 2015, 02:29 AM   #10071
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gincan View Post
European cities are also compact and people generally like the dense urban lifestyle, that doesn't hinder families with higher disposable income to buy a house with a garden in the suburbs. If you can triple or quadruple your living space then most people will reason around having to commute somewhat longer.

I think middle class flight to suburbia will happen once the disposable income does make it viable and as long as the commute is reasonable. But China isn't there yet, maybe in another decade or so.

That is the thing... China is "there". Instead of commuter rail lines in traditional sense (no grade separation, large distances between stops, very low frequency, long reach from city center), it has been building metro lines (grade separation, smaller distance between stops, high frequency and long reach from city center).

If you guys think, for example Beijing subway needs even longer reach then that is High-speed intercity railways.

If you guys think there should be less stops and faster trains in parallel to existing subway lines, that is simply an express metro line which we may see in the future indeed.
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Old September 24th, 2015, 06:59 AM   #10072
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Originally Posted by foxmulder View Post
That is the thing... China is "there". Instead of commuter rail lines in traditional sense (no grade separation, large distances between stops, very low frequency, long reach from city center), it has been building metro lines (grade separation, smaller distance between stops, high frequency and long reach from city center).
But metro lines are not replacement for commuter lines. Precisely because places at long reach from city centres which do not warrant high frequency and grade separation should still have low frequency rather than no frequency. 1 train per day of Beijing-Yangcun is too low.

About that Yujiapu:
It is near Tianjin Metro Line 9, which exploded.
Length 52,8 km. 19 stops counting termini.
What was the travel time, end to end, of Tianjin Metro Line 9 before it exploded?
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Old September 24th, 2015, 12:37 PM   #10073
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One thing I don't get is if the HSR stations are far from the city, how do you get from the station to the city? Private taxi or bus? Does this not lead to profiteering? Also, doesn't that indirectly reduce the efficiency of the HSR if a lot of time has to be spent commuting after getting down at the station.
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Old September 24th, 2015, 02:04 PM   #10074
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cosmicbliss View Post
One thing I don't get is if the HSR stations are far from the city, how do you get from the station to the city? Private taxi or bus? Does this not lead to profiteering? Also, doesn't that indirectly reduce the efficiency of the HSR if a lot of time has to be spent commuting after getting down at the station.
To my understanding the idea is that HSR stations are/will be connected to metro network if one is available in the city. I'm travelling to Nanning on the newly opened HSR line in a couple of weeks time and the only viable solution to get from the Nanning East to the center is by taxi. Metro line will get there next year.
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Old September 24th, 2015, 04:24 PM   #10075
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Ultra-rich are the people who donīt drive because they can afford to hire chauffeurs.
Since transport developments should not be geared towards rich, who can afford to drive, roads ought not to be built.
Don't forget business traffic and cargo that needs to move on roads as well.


Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
But metro lines are not replacement for commuter lines. Precisely because places at long reach from city centres which do not warrant high frequency and grade separation should still have low frequency rather than no frequency. 1 train per day of Beijing-Yangcun is too low.

About that Yujiapu:
It is near Tianjin Metro Line 9, which exploded.
Length 52,8 km. 19 stops counting termini.
What was the travel time, end to end, of Tianjin Metro Line 9 before it exploded?
It took 50 minutes.
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Old September 24th, 2015, 04:25 PM   #10076
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cosmicbliss View Post
One thing I don't get is if the HSR stations are far from the city, how do you get from the station to the city? Private taxi or bus? Does this not lead to profiteering? Also, doesn't that indirectly reduce the efficiency of the HSR if a lot of time has to be spent commuting after getting down at the station.
For the larger cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, subway connections are available, but they are still a reasonably long ride away but it is nearly impossible to run a new line through densely-built city centres underground. They are trying to do this in Shenzhen and it caused quite some disruption over the past few years.

I personally hated to get to Hongqiao to catch a train, especially since I liked living on the Pudong side. If one was available out of the more urban Shanghai station, I would go for that instead.
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Old September 24th, 2015, 06:04 PM   #10077
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It took 50 minutes.
Wow. Thatīs what I call respectable performance for a commuter rail.
63 km/h average speed with less than 3 km between stops.

For comparison, nonstop C trains Tianjin-Tanggu take 17 minutes, ticket price second class 18 yuan 5 jiao, first class 31 yuan, business class 58 yuan. Yes, it is an option to pay 58 yuan to ride 17 minutes in business class.
C trains Tianjin-Tanggu with 1 stop at Junliangcheng North take 23 minutes, same ticket prices.

What did it cost to ride Tianjin Metro line 9 end to end, Tianjin railway station to Donghai Road station, before it exploded?
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Old September 25th, 2015, 06:31 AM   #10078
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Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Wow. Thatīs what I call respectable performance for a commuter rail.
63 km/h average speed with less than 3 km between stops.

For comparison, nonstop C trains Tianjin-Tanggu take 17 minutes, ticket price second class 18 yuan 5 jiao, first class 31 yuan, business class 58 yuan. Yes, it is an option to pay 58 yuan to ride 17 minutes in business class.
C trains Tianjin-Tanggu with 1 stop at Junliangcheng North take 23 minutes, same ticket prices.

What did it cost to ride Tianjin Metro line 9 end to end, Tianjin railway station to Donghai Road station, before it exploded?
When Binhai was created as a special economic zone for financial reforms, there was no way for Tianjin residents to get there, so Line 9 was built. However, now that there are far more residentials built in Binhai itself, we see Line 9's low frequencies reflect this reality. It is not really a commuter line anymore. The price is not cheap either - 9 RMB (http://www.tjgdjt.com/).

There are very few C trains that make it to Tanggu. Tomorrow and on a weekday, there are only 8 trains, and nothing between 9:30am-3pm. It is not a commuter line. This is not surprising, with a fare of 9-18.5 RMB per trip, which is simply not affordable vs. local incomes. People have lots of choice to live in Binhai these days.
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Old September 25th, 2015, 07:12 AM   #10079
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However, now that there are far more residentials built in Binhai itself, we see Line 9's low frequencies reflect this reality. It is not really a commuter line anymore. The price is not cheap either - 9 RMB (http://www.tjgdjt.com/).
What were the frequencies of line 9 before it exploded?
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Old September 25th, 2015, 10:01 AM   #10080
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What were the frequencies of line 9 before it exploded?
Current schedule shows rush hour frequencies of 4.5-6 minutes while weekends may be up to 10 minutes per train.

Looking at the sparse C train schedule confirms my suspicion that incomes cannot support a faster, more comfortable ride on the CRH alternative yet, and since some of these trains continue to Beijing, it also confirms my suspicion that such long-distance commutes are not popular at all.
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