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Old November 23rd, 2015, 09:13 PM   #10341
chornedsnorkack
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Originally Posted by Grunnen View Post
Interesting. That's really a quick growth. But I suppose there has also been a lot of 'room upwards'. In a small country like the Netherlands there are already about 2750 train pairs per day, and in India even more than 6000.
Yes. Thatīs the problem with Chinese rail.
July 2014 - 1117 pairs
January 2016 - 1161,5 pairs
India - over 6000 pairs.
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Old November 23rd, 2015, 11:17 PM   #10342
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I'm a bit lost... What exactly is a train pair? Is that just number of services in both directions or is it related to actual train sets?
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Old November 24th, 2015, 03:45 AM   #10343
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Originally Posted by Grunnen View Post
Interesting. That's really a quick growth. But I suppose there has also been a lot of 'room upwards'. In a small country like the Netherlands there are already about 2750 train pairs per day, and in India even more than 6000.
That's comparing apples to oranges. Chinese cities have far more extensive subway systems and people don't commute far and hence won't be likely to use regional trains, which drives a lot of the European figures.

China's slow trains are typically for cheap intercity travel for the migrants and lower classes. This is also why despite significant growth in CRH lines and services, the traditional slow trains cannot be axed too much for fear of upsetting the rural poor.
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Old November 24th, 2015, 08:17 AM   #10344
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grunnen View Post
Interesting. That's really a quick growth. But I suppose there has also been a lot of 'room upwards'. In a small country like the Netherlands there are already about 2750 train pairs per day, and in India even more than 6000.
in China,1 pair train maybe means this train will run more than 3000km
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Old November 24th, 2015, 09:26 AM   #10345
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
That's comparing apples to oranges. Chinese cities have far more extensive subway systems
No, they donīt.
Netherlands has 17 million people on 41 500 square km.
And 2 cities with subway systems: Rotterdam and Amsterdam.
Hebei has 73 million people on 188 000 square km.
And no cities with metro systems!
In proportion, not only Shijiazhuang, but most prefecture level cities of Hebei should have metro systems. None of them do.
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
and people don't commute far and hence won't be likely to use regional trains, which drives a lot of the European figures.

China's slow trains are typically for cheap intercity travel for the migrants and lower classes. This is also why despite significant growth in CRH lines and services, the traditional slow trains cannot be axed too much for fear of upsetting the rural poor.
But the problem is, they arenīt "axed too much" implying they ARE axed some. They certainly are badly neglected, rather than significantly expanded and improved.
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Old November 24th, 2015, 10:12 AM   #10346
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
No, they donīt.
Netherlands has 17 million people on 41 500 square km.
And 2 cities with subway systems: Rotterdam and Amsterdam.
Hebei has 73 million people on 188 000 square km.
And no cities with metro systems!
In proportion, not only Shijiazhuang, but most prefecture level cities of Hebei should have metro systems. None of them do.

But the problem is, they arenīt "axed too much" implying they ARE axed some. They certainly are badly neglected, rather than significantly expanded and improved.
They are building a subway system in Shijiazhuang right now, with the first line opening in a few years. Across the country, there is a subway building spree happening and we see coverage significantly increase in the larger cities such as Beijing and Shanghai.

Are you implying the people of Hebei live, travel, and work like a high-income country eg. the Netherlands? Why aren't you looking at a national level when comparing the Netherlands against Hebei, a province which represents < 10% of the national population? Are you also saying transport patterns are comparable between these 2 entities?

I don't think China's slow railways are badly neglected or even unsafe. We don't have the frequency and types of accidents that India experiences. Perhaps you can provide some statistics to back yourself up?
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Old November 24th, 2015, 11:22 AM   #10347
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Are you implying the people of Hebei live, travel, and work like a high-income country eg. the Netherlands? Why aren't you looking at a national level when comparing the Netherlands against Hebei, a province which represents < 10% of the national population?
Um, because China us much bigger in area.
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Are you also saying transport patterns are comparable between these 2 entities?

I don't think China's slow railways are badly neglected or even unsafe. We don't have the frequency and types of accidents that India experiences. Perhaps you can provide some statistics to back yourself up?
That statistic we just quoted above.
China has under 1200 train pairs on slow railways. India has (slightly) smaller poulation, much lower income, and only slow railways, yet over 6000 train pairs.
Chinaīs slow railways may be safe, but they are obviously badly neglected because they are failing to provide service they could and should be providing.
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Old November 24th, 2015, 11:43 AM   #10348
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Maybe I was mistaken. I thought China has been developing its high speed trains for years now, why wouldn't they just use our own technology?
All Chinese HSR is derived from German, French, Spanish, Italian and Japanese tech sharing agreements. This is neither speculation, nor opinion. The only indigenous from the start trainset was scrapped and then sharing agreements began.

Slight modifications are made to all of the train designs, just enough to warrant a patent, and then it is claimed as Made in China.

Those newly imported trainsets will be 'improved' upon soon enough.
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Old November 24th, 2015, 11:53 AM   #10349
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Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Um, because China us much bigger in area.

That statistic we just quoted above.
China has under 1200 train pairs on slow railways. India has (slightly) smaller poulation, much lower income, and only slow railways, yet over 6000 train pairs.
Chinaīs slow railways may be safe, but they are obviously badly neglected because they are failing to provide service they could and should be providing.
Once again, you are myopically chopping up land areas at random to make comparisons that make little sense.

You also need to consider why India needs so much rail service, albeit at a loss because they can't get pricing right, and prone to accidents. Your superficial "analysis" fails to take into consideration several blaring points :

1. Indian cities have very small subway systems relative to their size and passengers rely on rail transport to get around.
2. China has a far better highway network compared to India, so buses can effectively compete with cheap / slow rail.
3. In general, China has far better transport infrastructure than India, so the fact that India may run more train pairs than China is not indicative of which one is better. It just shows India relies on trains more than China.
4. Suburban rail in Mumbai, which is used by commuters, is operated by Indian Railways, while Chinese subway networks are not part of the national intercity train system (eg. K, Z, C, D, G trains). So you can't compare train schedules directly between the 2.
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Old November 24th, 2015, 08:05 PM   #10350
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in China,1 pair train maybe means this train will run more than 3000km
Hmm that's true.
This summer I was in Taiyuan and we did a day trip to Pingyao. It's only 1,5 hours by train and there are more than 10 trains per day - but almost all of those trains are trains with sleeper cars running over long distances. If you'd cut up those services in smaller regional shuttle trains, the number of train pairs would increase a lot.
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Old November 24th, 2015, 08:53 PM   #10351
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Once again, you are myopically chopping up land areas at random to make comparisons that make little sense.
No, making a lot of sense.
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
2. China has a far better highway network compared to India, so buses can effectively compete with cheap / slow rail.
And China does not have good enough rail network that it could effectively compete with buses.
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
3. In general, China has far better transport infrastructure than India, so the fact that India may run more train pairs than China is not indicative of which one is better. It just shows India relies on trains more than China.
But China does not have good enough train infrastructure that people could rely on trains.
Pingyao is a good example.
Pingyao-Beijing by slow train is at least 676 km, takes at least 8:41 (K610) and costs at least 93 yuan hard seat.
Pingyao Ancient Town-Beijing West by CRH is 606 km. By D train it takes 4:13 or 4:23, and costs 183 yuan second class. By G train it takes 3:51 and costs 225 yuan 5 jiao second class.
There may be a lot of migrants from Pingyao who work in Beijing, but even for successful businessmen the 4 hour trip one way is unattractive.
But look at Pingyao-Taiyuan.
Pingyao-Taiyuan by slow train is 108 km.
Trip times by slow trains are from 1:31 to 1:54. Hard seat cost is 14 yuan 5 jiao or 16 yuan 5 jiao.
By high speed train, Pingyao Ancient Town to Taiyuan South is 93 km. Trip time is 33 to 47 minutes. Second class seat costs 28 yuan 5 jiao.
Do poor migrants from Pingyao to Taiyuan find the 16 yuan one way ride cheap enough to ride each week? Every day?

Even if people who leave Pingyao and find work in Taiyuan already rather than in Beijing are fewer in number than those who go all the way to Beijing, Shanghai or Shenzhen, they can afford the time and money to go home far more often. They should therefore be much more numerous as train passengers.
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Old November 25th, 2015, 03:58 AM   #10352
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Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
No, making a lot of sense.

And China does not have good enough rail network that it could effectively compete with buses.

But China does not have good enough train infrastructure that people could rely on trains.
Pingyao is a good example.
Pingyao-Beijing by slow train is at least 676 km, takes at least 8:41 (K610) and costs at least 93 yuan hard seat.
Pingyao Ancient Town-Beijing West by CRH is 606 km. By D train it takes 4:13 or 4:23, and costs 183 yuan second class. By G train it takes 3:51 and costs 225 yuan 5 jiao second class.
There may be a lot of migrants from Pingyao who work in Beijing, but even for successful businessmen the 4 hour trip one way is unattractive.
But look at Pingyao-Taiyuan.
Pingyao-Taiyuan by slow train is 108 km.
Trip times by slow trains are from 1:31 to 1:54. Hard seat cost is 14 yuan 5 jiao or 16 yuan 5 jiao.
By high speed train, Pingyao Ancient Town to Taiyuan South is 93 km. Trip time is 33 to 47 minutes. Second class seat costs 28 yuan 5 jiao.
Do poor migrants from Pingyao to Taiyuan find the 16 yuan one way ride cheap enough to ride each week? Every day?

Even if people who leave Pingyao and find work in Taiyuan already rather than in Beijing are fewer in number than those who go all the way to Beijing, Shanghai or Shenzhen, they can afford the time and money to go home far more often. They should therefore be much more numerous as train passengers.
Actually, the CRH network effectively competes against buses on shorter distance trips, such as Zhengzhou - Kaifeng and Zhengzhou - Luoyang, but the 2 go after different clientele. Buses are considerably cheaper so the lower classes can afford them, while CRH is for middle class and above who are willing to pay a premium. The CRH network should be better compared against airplanes. For the middle class and above, they have a good range of choices between cheap buses, not-so-cheap CRH, and delay-prone airplanes.

You forgot to look at demand. Long-distance commutes in China are not common. It is cheaper to rent in the city of work rather than pay for the long-distance train. Do you have figures as to how many commute from Pingyao daily before concluding train service is inadequate?

You still don't understand China's income profile and why CRH was built for long-distance intercity travel and commutes.

Poor migrants get housing by the employer. They don't need to commute. They can save the 32 yuan roundtrip.
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Old November 25th, 2015, 07:32 AM   #10353
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Actually, the CRH network effectively competes against buses on shorter distance trips, such as Zhengzhou - Kaifeng and Zhengzhou - Luoyang, but the 2 go after different clientele. Buses are considerably cheaper so the lower classes can afford them, while CRH is for middle class and above who are willing to pay a premium.
Taking Zhengzhou-Kaifeng.
72 km.
I find that D train second class seats are 18 yuan 5 jiao.
Slow train hard seat most 12 yuan 5 jiao, some 10 yuan 5 jiao.
What do buses cost?
Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
The CRH network should be better compared against airplanes. For the middle class and above, they have a good range of choices between cheap buses, not-so-cheap CRH, and delay-prone airplanes.
And airplanes do not compete for short distances.
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
It is cheaper to rent in the city of work rather than pay for the long-distance train. Do you have figures as to how many commute from Pingyao daily before concluding train service is inadequate?

Poor migrants get housing by the employer. They don't need to commute. They can save the 32 yuan roundtrip.
Asking again. Do employers provide their cheap workers just dormitory rooms, or housing adequate for wife and children (now two allowed for everybody and their dog) and grandparents, and entitlement to put children to public school and give elder parents medical care in the city?

For a worker in Taiyuan with wife, child and parents back in Pingyao... Would they spend these 32 yuan roundtrip just once a year for New Year, and not get laid for 11 months per year? Or would they go home and get laid more often, like each weekend? It would still be just 140 yuan per month.
Going home every night would be 700 yuan per month, but save the cost of renting the room in Taiyuan.
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Old November 25th, 2015, 10:16 AM   #10354
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Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Um, because China us much bigger in area.
That statistic we just quoted above. China has under 1200 train pairs on slow railways. India has (slightly) smaller poulation, much lower income, and only slow railways, yet over 6000 train pairs.
Chinaīs slow railways may be safe, but they are obviously badly neglected because they are failing to provide service they could and should be providing.
You should consider also other means of transport. Civil aviation market in India is about 25% of China's so the share of long distance trains in China is lower on the total demand. Neverthless aviation rise almost in the same pace as in India even the competition from HSR system, which is 0 in India.
You need to see holistic view about all transportation system. Have been in both countries and thats huge difference.
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Old November 25th, 2015, 10:42 AM   #10355
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Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Asking again. Do employers provide their cheap workers just dormitory rooms, or housing adequate for wife and children (now two allowed for everybody and their dog) and grandparents, and entitlement to put children to public school and give elder parents medical care in the city?

For a worker in Taiyuan with wife, child and parents back in Pingyao... Would they spend these 32 yuan roundtrip just once a year for New Year, and not get laid for 11 months per year? Or would they go home and get laid more often, like each weekend? It would still be just 140 yuan per month.
Going home every night would be 700 yuan per month, but save the cost of renting the room in Taiyuan.
You seriously need to visit China and see how people live rather than asking this weird questions.

1. Early visits are for people who travel to the coast (Shenzhen, Shanghai etc rather than just the nearest large city. What important here is time needed to take off, companies in China typically don't off vacations (and if they do, people usually don't use it and exchange it for money instead). So your travel time + time together exceed a weekend or a typical holiday break, you will not go back.

2. Entitlement only work well in the places you're registered. Policies differ. A typical government health plan covers 70% of costs he goes to the hospitals in his city of registration, and 30% in the province of registration and 0% outside of the province. If you're outside of your area, you'll need to pay out of pocket or purchase private health insurance. Both of which costs a pretty penny. So unless you have to, you don't move outside of your area of registration.

3. It cost 450 yuan to rent a one bedroom apartment in Taiyuan.

4. There is a express bus service connecting Pingyao and Taiyuan, every 15 minutes. it costs 25 Yuan, and take only 2 hours.
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Old November 25th, 2015, 05:44 PM   #10356
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Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Taking Zhengzhou-Kaifeng.
72 km.
I find that D train second class seats are 18 yuan 5 jiao.
Slow train hard seat most 12 yuan 5 jiao, some 10 yuan 5 jiao.
What do buses cost?
Why aren't you looking at the new C train that goes from Zhengzhou East? Frequencies seem higher. The bus is only 7 yuan, by the way. So clearly the bus and CRH clientele would be different. The migrants can probably afford an occasional ticket, while the middle class gets a choice.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
And airplanes do not compete for short distances.
As I said before, the CRH network is designed for long-distance intercity travel, with the first key line being Beijing - Shanghai, where they can effectively compete against airplanes. The network is generally not geared towards short distance travel except in very limited cases such as close city-pairs (Beijing - Tianjin), but these are not for the commuter crowd.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Asking again. Do employers provide their cheap workers just dormitory rooms, or housing adequate for wife and children (now two allowed for everybody and their dog) and grandparents, and entitlement to put children to public school and give elder parents medical care in the city?
Migrants don't bring their kids to cities as they don't have hukou so the family doesn't have access to social benefits, including schooling. Employers provide dormitories, and migrants don't earn enough to realistically rent on their own. This won't change even if migrants' wages go up as it doesn't change the social welfare entitlement.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
For a worker in Taiyuan with wife, child and parents back in Pingyao... Would they spend these 32 yuan roundtrip just once a year for New Year, and not get laid for 11 months per year? Or would they go home and get laid more often, like each weekend? It would still be just 140 yuan per month.
Going home every night would be 700 yuan per month, but save the cost of renting the room in Taiyuan.
Sex life is probably the last thing in these people's minds when their families still lack the basic needs back home. Look again at average migrant income figures and it will be silly to pay 140 yuan on transport for sex with a meagre 2290 yuan monthly income. You still don't see how silly such occasional commute is for the migrant class?

Again, migrants get housing so they are not spending anything on rent. Makes no sense for them to go home on the weekend to "save" on housing.
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Old November 25th, 2015, 07:35 PM   #10357
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You seriously need to visit China and see how people live rather than asking this weird questions.

4. There is a express bus service connecting Pingyao and Taiyuan, every 15 minutes. it costs 25 Yuan, and take only 2 hours.
That means that the train is both cheaper and quicker. Being an electric railway line, the train would also be better for the environment.

So then it would actually make quite a lot of sense to have a frequently running regional express train on this relation, rather than those express buses. The infrastructure is basically already there, as is apparently(!) the demand.
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Old November 25th, 2015, 07:50 PM   #10358
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Interesting. That's really a quick growth. But I suppose there has also been a lot of 'room upwards'. In a small country like the Netherlands there are already about 2750 train pairs per day, and in India even more than 6000.
There definitely is. But the numbers can be deceiving sometimes and may not be comparable.

China Railways focuses on medium-long distance transportation. They do offer limited short distance trips but those are almost always intervals on long distance trains. No doubt CR has done a pretty good job in this particular market especially after HSR is introduced. In 2014, CR transported 2.3 billion passengers, only 1/3-1/4 of Indian Railways' 8.4 billion, but the passenger-km of CR is 1160.4 billion, which is the same as IR's 1110.0 billion. CR has long been complaining about its clogged systems, now HSRs finally liberate it. Most of the added CRH trains are still targeted at this market.

That short-medium distance market has been dominated by intercity buses thanks to the expressway boom and rural highway extension. The intercity buses transported 19 billion passengers with 1208 billion passenger-km in 2014 (more passengers but same passenger-km compared to railways). So average mileage per trip per person is about 60km by intercity bus and 500km by train. However, HSRs have successfully grabbed some share from intercity buses, and with more ICLs under consideration, more trains such as CRH6 will be added and this might boost CR's statistics quite a lot too.

Commuting in China normally occurs only within cities. We do see people commute on intercity HSRs but it's limited. The cities are building rapid transport systems like crazy which are completely independent of CR, but they can not build any commuter rails unless CR completely loses its current control on commuter rails. This is not a major target market for CR or CRH in the conceivable future. Although this part of traffic has been growing at an explosive pace, it will not contribute to CR's statistics book.

In short, the number of trains in service will definitely keep increasing rapidly but commuter trains will still remain scarce.
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Old November 25th, 2015, 08:18 PM   #10359
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So then it would actually make quite a lot of sense to have a frequently running regional express train on this relation, rather than those express buses. The infrastructure is basically already there, as is apparently(!) the demand.
It's not possible to add more regional trains on the old line since it is part of a heavily-used long distance line, as it will significantly affect the overall efficiency.

Pingyao is also on Datong-Xi'an HSR. The Taiyuan-Xi'an part began service in July last year and currently there are about 15 pairs of D/G trains connecting Taiyuan and Pingyao daily, so that will meet some of the demand.
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Old November 25th, 2015, 10:23 PM   #10360
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That short-medium distance market has been dominated by intercity buses thanks to the expressway boom and rural highway extension.
How many rural branch railway lines have been built recently?
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Commuting in China normally occurs only within cities. We do see people commute on intercity HSRs but it's limited. The cities are building rapid transport systems like crazy which are completely independent of CR, but they can not build any commuter rails unless CR completely loses its current control on commuter rails. This is not a major target market for CR or CRH in the conceivable future.
Which means that short distance intercity commuter rail is being neglected.
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