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Old July 22nd, 2016, 03:29 AM   #10881
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Parts of Europe is more densely settled than most of USA, but a lot isn´t. Central Europe and Nordic countries have less dense population but significant passenger rail.
All of the Nordic countries have all their population heavily congregated on their southern coast. For central Europe, look at population distribution maps. Almost all of central Europe is 75+ persons / sqkm, whereas only small spots around cities throughout the U.S. have that kind of density. Of course this is not a perfect comparison, but my argument is that all of Europe is a lot more densely populated than almost all of the U.S.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post

But New York-Chicago or New Your-Atlanta are distances nicely comparable to Beijing-Shanghai.
At this risk of going significantly off topic, this is the same problem that HSR has all throughout the U.S.—not enough density and not fast enough.

A New York-Chicago flight is only 2.5 hours and 800 miles. The fastest HSR can really only sustain 150mph including stops, so that's 5:20. 800 miles is where the benefits of HSR start to erode. Ease of city center access and faster boarding is great, but when you have three hours to make up, it becomes far less competitive.

Then there's the issue of density. An NYC-Chicago line can realistically only be threaded through Cleveland and Pittsburgh, which have combined less than 700k people. NYC-Atlanta has a similar problem—you can only go through Charlotte, Greensboro, and Richmond (part of NYC-Atlanta is duplicated by the Northeast Corridor), which has a combined total of 1.2M people.

By comparison, the Beijing-Shanghai line goes through the cities of Tianjin, Jinan, Nanjing, and Suzhou. Tianjin itself has 7M people, which is larger than the Atlanta metro area (5.4M).

Ergo, the U.S. has a lot fewer people that are a lot more spread out than Europe or Asia. Places like the Northeast Corridor and possibly California are the only areas where long HSR lines really make sense, and it's fitting that those corridors are being constructed. There are some other close city pairs where HSR service makes sense, but a true nationwide network would require more HSR than the total amount of HSR in service worldwide, and it'd be a painfully slow way to get around (Miami-NYC in 9 hours vs 3 hour flight, transcontinental in 18 hours vs 5.5 hour flight).
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 10:54 AM   #10882
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I respectfullly suggest that the Greater Tianjin area has more than seven million people.

Otherwise the rest of the argument appears sound.
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 12:07 PM   #10883
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kunming tiger View Post
I respectfullly suggest that the Greater Tianjin area has more than seven million people.
Arguably true.
As of 2010 Census, the total population of Tianjin was 13 millions - on 11 760 square km.
If you count just the 10 districts of:
  1. Heping
  2. Hedong
  3. Hexi
  4. Nankai
  5. Hebei
  6. Hongqiao
  7. Dongli
  8. Xiqing
  9. Jinnan
  10. Beichen
then I do get 7M people.
On 2040 square km area.
But see the implication?
The 6 districts of:
  1. Binhai New Area
  2. Wuqing
  3. Baodi
  4. Ninghe
  5. Jinghai
  6. Jizhou
have 6 million people over 9700 square km.
If the Ji County that was destroyed last month has a population of 800 000 and is 115 km from central Tianjin, what´s the use of Beijing-Shanghai HSR with its lone Tianjin South Station for someone whose origin or destination is in Jizhou District?
Wenchang Subdistrict of Jizhou District has a population of 90 000. A major city. Does Wenchang Subdistrict have railway service to Tianjin? To Beijing, also under 200 km away?
Jizhou District has 25 towns, each of which with over 12 000 people. Yuyang Town, with over 57 000 people, is clearly a major city, too. How many of the 25 towns of Jizhou District have railway stations?
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 01:33 PM   #10884
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
But see the implication?

have 6 million people over 9700 square km.
If the Ji County that was destroyed last month has a population of 800 000 and is 115 km from central Tianjin, what´s the use of Beijing-Shanghai HSR with its lone Tianjin South Station for someone whose origin or destination is in Jizhou District?
Wenchang Subdistrict of Jizhou District has a population of 90 000. A major city. Does Wenchang Subdistrict have railway service to Tianjin? To Beijing, also under 200 km away?
Jizhou District has 25 towns, each of which with over 12 000 people. Yuyang Town, with over 57 000 people, is clearly a major city, too. How many of the 25 towns of Jizhou District have railway stations?
I see your point, but this is only because Tianjin is extremely close to Beijing. What about people in the outer districts who want to go to Shanghai? Wouldn't they have to get to the main Tianjin station first? If Tianjin weren't so close to one side of the line, it'd be true in both directions.
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 02:24 PM   #10885
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SSMEX View Post
I see your point, but this is only because Tianjin is extremely close to Beijing. What about people in the outer districts who want to go to Shanghai? Wouldn't they have to get to the main Tianjin station first? If Tianjin weren't so close to one side of the line, it'd be true in both directions.
First, go how?
Second, go where?
As I pointed out, an "outer district" of Tianjin is each hundreds of thousands of people, with most subdistricts and towns being tens of thousands of people.
Do they have rail connection to "main Tianjin station"?
And Beijing-Shanghai HSR does NOT go to main Tianjin station. It goes to Tianjin South. How many slow speed railway lines go to Tianjin South Station?
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 07:15 PM   #10886
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Why are you comparing US to China and their HSR? In my opinion it would make more sense to compare with France. Also any HSR system in US would necessarily be regional instead of national.

There are so many places in US where HSR would make sense. Just as a semi random example how about Chicago-Madison-Minneapolis line? That's about 400 miles so without trying too hard it would be 3-3.5 h. Driving takes about twice as long. Total population in all three metro areas is ca 13 million. More than enough.
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 08:09 PM   #10887
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunfuns View Post
Why are you comparing US to China and their HSR? In my opinion it would make more sense to compare with France. Also any HSR system in US would necessarily be regional instead of national.
And China?
Consider Guangzhou-Beijing HSR:
Guangzhou South-Changsha - 113 trains daily (109 G, 4 D)
Guangzhou South-Wuhan - 62 trains daily (all G)
Guangzhou South-Zhengzhou - 22 trains daily (all G)
Guangzhou South-Shijiazhuang - 13 trains daily (7 G and 6 D)
Guangzhou South-Beijing - 12 trains daily (5 G and 7 D)
Beijing-Shijiazhuang - 98 trains daily (87 G and 11 D)

The line and system is arguably national - these 5 through trains exist. Or is it regional? Because out of the 113 G trains from Guangzhou, only 22 go to Zhengzhou - most are confined to the region Guangzhou-Wuhan.
19 hours by HSR train Los Angeles-New York? Well, Urumqi-Lanzhou is 11 hours. How long will Urumqi-Beijing or Urumqi-Shanghai be? And when does Lanzhou-Baoji HSR open?

Last edited by chornedsnorkack; July 22nd, 2016 at 08:53 PM.
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 09:41 PM   #10888
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What I wanted to say is that if you apply Chinese criteria for building HSR or even simply new train lines elsewhere then in many countries nothing should ever be built due to there not being enough people. Of course if you have a route which would serve 100 million people you build there first, but if there is not such a place then 2-3 million with 20 trains a day is still sufficient.
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 10:29 PM   #10889
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2 million people?
That´s what Hotan Prefecture has - over area of 250 000 square km.
The capital, Hotan, has 320 000 people over 466 square km.
Kashgar Prefecture has 4 million people, over area of 110 000 square km.
The capital, Kashgar, has 500 000 people over 555 square km.
Kashgar and Hotan combined have about 6 million people over area of 360 000 square km. Both of these numbers are slightly bigger than the country of Finland.

China has newly built a railway between Kashgar and Hotan. How many trains do you think serve that population daily? 20?

2. Number trains 7563 and 7559.

Last edited by chornedsnorkack; July 22nd, 2016 at 10:38 PM.
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 10:47 PM   #10890
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And your point is?

Where I live there are about 60 trains per day between two cities with a total population of about 2 million...
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 11:13 PM   #10891
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Two points:
1) People keep forgetting how big China is. They call "prefecture level cities" just "cities". What they are forgetting is that these prefecture level cities routinely span tens of thousands of square km, and have millions of inhabitants. By European standards, they are the size of a smaller European countries, with capital, countryside and a lot of smaller cities. So, a lot of settlements which Chinese term "towns" actually have tens of thousands of people, and by European standards qualify as midsized cities. Which in Europe, and also Japan, would have rail service.
2) Rail, and rail service, are worth having and building even if the route does not have demand for 60 trains daily, or even 20, but just 2 like Kashgar-Hotan or 4 like Turpan-Kashgar.
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 11:20 PM   #10892
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CHINA | High Speed Rail

Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Two points:

1) People keep forgetting how big China is. They call "prefecture level cities" just "cities". What they are forgetting is that these prefecture level cities routinely span tens of thousands of square km, and have millions of inhabitants. By European standards, they are the size of a smaller European countries, with capital, countryside and a lot of smaller cities. So, a lot of settlements which Chinese term "towns" actually have tens of thousands of people, and by European standards qualify as midsized cities. Which in Europe, and also Japan, would have rail service.

2) Rail, and rail service, are worth having and building even if the route does not have demand for 60 trains daily, or even 20, but just 2 like Kashgar-Hotan or 4 like Turpan-Kashgar.


Hence even more reason to run more trains. Imagine, a country the size of Czech Republic with capital city, smaller cities and towns, yet only 4 trains servicing it connecting it to the rest of world....
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Old July 23rd, 2016, 12:24 PM   #10893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Transhumanista View Post
Returning to the specific topic of HSR:
2015: 19 000 km
2020: 30 000 km - 11 000 km built in 5 years
2025: 38 000 km - 8000 km built in 5 years.

The 11 000 km HSR to be yet opened until 2020 ought to be under construction by now. Are full lists known?
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Old July 24th, 2016, 09:34 AM   #10894
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Hongqiao Train Station, Shanghai by Lengs83, on Flickr
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Old July 31st, 2016, 10:45 AM   #10895
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More details about the plans:
http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/i...ster-plan.html
Some absurdities:
Quote:
Originally Posted by NDRC
rail network should be expanded to serve all cities with a population of more than 2 million,
Quote:
Originally Posted by NDRC
The aim is to offer journey times of 1 h to 4 h between the principal conurbations
But a list of the 16 main lines intended:
Quote:
coastal PDL connecting Dalian and Dandong to Tianjin, Shanghai, Fuzhou, Shenzhen and Beihai;
capacity enhancements to the Beijing – Shanghai high speed corridor;
Beijing – Hong Kong PDL and connecting routes to serve intermediate population centres;
Harbin – Hong Kong PDL;
Hohhot – Nanning PDL via Datong, Taiyuan, Zhengzhou, Changde, Yongzhou and Guilin;
Beijing – Kunming PDL via Taiyuan, Xi'an and Chengdu/Chongqing;
Baotou/Yinchuan – Haikou via Yanan, Chongqing and Nanning;
Lanzhou/Xining – Guangzhou via Chengdu/Chongqing and Guiyang.
Suifenhe – Manzhouli via Harbin;
Beijing – Lanzhou via Hohhot and Yinchuan;
Qingdao – Yinchuan via Jinan and Taiyuan;
Lianyungang – Urumqi via Xuzhou, Zhengzhou and Xining;
Shanghai – Chengdu via Nanjing, Anqing, Wuhan, Yichang and Chongqing;
Shanghai – Kunming via Nanchang, Changsha and Guiyang;
Xiamen – Chongqing via Longyan, Changsha and Zhangjiajie;
Guangzhou – Kunming via Nanning.
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Old August 3rd, 2016, 02:53 AM   #10896
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HSR Finances

Date: Aug 02, 106 | Source: ECNS Wire

Quote:
The expanded high-speed train network in China has started to make a profit in the populated east, but services running through the vast central and western regions are still far from breaking even.

In 2015, six high-speed rail lines made a profit, with the Beijing-Shanghai route topping the list at a net profit of 6.58 billion yuan ($990 million), said China Economic Weekly on Tuesday, citing a report from the national railway authority.

...

Two other high-speed trains, both in Yangtze River Delta, also managed to make a profit last year. The Shanghai-Ningbo rail had a net profit of 641 million yuan while the Ningbo-Hangzhou rail line earned 101 million yuan.

...

But in contrast to profitable railways in the east, high-speed connections in central and western regions fell far short of profitability. Many experts said performance is closely related to the population and economic strength of cities they serve.

The report said many high-speed rail lines connecting major cities in the central and western regions continue to lose money, and some are far from breaking even.

The Zhengzhou-Xi'an high-speed rail has run at a loss since it began operating in 2010, when passenger numbers failed to reach half of capacity. In 2012, the line had a loss of 1.4 billion yuan.
It makes sense to build lines in Central and Western China before prices (labour, resettlement, infrastructure costs, etc.) get too high. Profit making lines in the east can offset some of the losses in other regions. However, I did expect HSR between Chongqing, Chengdu and Wuhan to be making a profit by now.
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Old August 3rd, 2016, 08:17 AM   #10897
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dbhaskar View Post
However, I did expect HSR between Chongqing, Chengdu and Wuhan to be making a profit by now.
I thought the Chengdu-Chongqing railway was making money. All the times I've been on it, it was full to the gills and even the standing room tickets were sold out. Why else would you build a third line (the Chengdu-Chongqing Intercity Line) if the first one wasn't making money? It's like a 90 minute trip so it far outweighs flying and Chengdu East is connected to the metro as is Chongqing's terminus.

The Chongqing to Wuhan alignment though is only marginally high-speed. The vast majority (Chengdu to Yichang) runs on 200 kph, and then speeds up to 250 to Nanjing. Most other 4+4 lines run at least 250 with all the N/S corridors having 350 kph sections. It means if you want to go between Chengdu and Wuhan, it's still going to take around 9hrs, sure it's only like ~¥400 but you're probably going to fly.
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Old August 3rd, 2016, 12:45 PM   #10898
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Parts of Europe is more densely settled than most of USA, but a lot isn´t. Central Europe and Nordic countries have less dense population but significant passenger rail.

But New York-Chicago or New Your-Atlanta are distances nicely comparable to Beijing-Shanghai.
I do wish you would stop projecting the worldview of a
small EU nation on to the USA.

It will not fit.

All nations are NOT the same, and solutions are NOT universal.
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Old August 3rd, 2016, 03:42 PM   #10899
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European countries have alot of rail because they are different independent nations with their own governments.

A European federation would probably not put alot of money into rail in remote parts of Sweden, while a swedish government has a bigger incentive to do this.
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Old August 3rd, 2016, 05:00 PM   #10900
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 孟天宝 View Post
I thought the Chengdu-Chongqing railway was making money. All the times I've been on it, it was full to the gills and even the standing room tickets were sold out. Why else would you build a third line (the Chengdu-Chongqing Intercity Line) if the first one wasn't making money? It's like a 90 minute trip so it far outweighs flying and Chengdu East is connected to the metro as is Chongqing's terminus.
Public transportation provides benefits which are not all captured in farebox. For example, raising ticket prices on Chengdu-Chongqing HSR to recover the operating cost might depress the economy at the places served, provoke public protests, and direct passengers to buses and private cars on roads paid by pulic.
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