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Old September 22nd, 2016, 10:36 PM   #11061
hkskyline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
So what are migrant workers choosing when they travel from Guangzhou to Nanning? More expensive buses (based on the source that you provided) or cheaper high-speed trains on the same route?
Did you search the bus fares to understand the price difference?

By the way, have you thought the bulk of the migrants come from poorer farming communities and not city-to-city movements? This is exactly luhai's point on sleeper buses getting to where trains can't.
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Old September 22nd, 2016, 10:48 PM   #11062
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Did you search the bus fares to understand the price difference?
I did indeed. I used the website for bus fares that you provided a few posts back.

Quote:
By the way, have you thought the bulk of the migrants come from poorer farming communities
Such as Shanghai to Qingdao?
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Old September 22nd, 2016, 11:56 PM   #11063
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My own experience tells that sometimes its much easy to jump on a bus than a train, bus stations are normally located in the center of a city, but train stations especially these newly built CRH stations are far from city center, sure this does not really save time if you compare the speed between a CRH train and a bus, but hey you forget as a migrant I need to bring five sacks of homemade smoked pork/fish, otherwise I will be homesick, you can image that could be a nightmare if I try to board the train with all my sacks, but its not really a problem for the bus. Another important reason is that during CNY, you can hardly buy a train ticket, but you can easily buy a bus ticket, sorry to say this is also my own experience. it is simply nothing to do with the price, sometimes you just have no options.
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 04:06 AM   #11064
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CHINA | High Speed Rail

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiangwho View Post
My own experience tells that sometimes its much easy to jump on a bus than a train, bus stations are normally located in the center of a city, but train stations especially these newly built CRH stations are far from city center, sure this does not really save time if you compare the speed between a CRH train and a bus, but hey you forget as a migrant I need to bring five sacks of homemade smoked pork/fish, otherwise I will be homesick, you can image that could be a nightmare if I try to board the train with all my sacks, but its not really a problem for the bus. Another important reason is that during CNY, you can hardly buy a train ticket, but you can easily buy a bus ticket, sorry to say this is also my own experience. it is simply nothing to do with the price, sometimes you just have no options.


indeed, during CNY lots and lots of buses got commandeered for long distance duties. I have seen tour buses with their tour company logos on them at service and long distance transport bus. For HSR trains, you simply can't mobilize like that. (for slow rail mothballed trained got mobilized as L train, but that's a different discussion.

From my personal experience, people normally take the train for long distance (>500 km) to the nearest city with frequent train service (say more than 10 a day). then take bus to cover the last 100 km or so.

Location of train station is less of a factor, since long distance bus stations also tends in the outskirts of major city, so it will avoid city traffic going in and out of town. Also the migrant tend not to live in the city center as well, as they tend to live in dormitories near their factory or cheap housing outside of the city center.

The only reason i have people who would actually very long distances bus is 1) it a sleeper overnight bus, since overnight sleeper train ticket is hard to get and tend to. e expensive. 2) they need to transport lots of stuff as buses are more generous with what people can bring how much they can bring. (and if you do violate those rules you can easily bribe to the bus driver and it almost impossible to do the same to the train conductor.) on the flip side, long distance buses are perceived as dangerous, ever year there are dozens of high profile bus accidents that kills more than 20 people, while for trains, they tend to be once every decade.
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Last edited by luhai; September 23rd, 2016 at 04:13 AM.
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 05:25 AM   #11065
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
Such as Shanghai to Qingdao?
You are taking that comparison out of context. My reply was to chornedsnorkack for intercity travel. Go back and read the original post on 8/29. The conclusion is trains are not cheap in general and hence migrants don't use them since they are even poorer than those who can afford intercity travel.

High-speed trains are not able to reach the rural farming communities where these migrants come from anyway. They are for the middle class folks and business travelers who need intercity travel. By the way, you do realize there are migrants who move between cities, right? These are the wealthier folks who are more closer to middle class than the farming migrants and hence may consider flying or CRH trains.

But then, you are not able to understand this distinction and the discussion then morphed into a tangent looking at cost per unit of distance, which is completely irrelevant to consumer behaviour. I suggest you re-read how the discussion changed from its beginnings in late August.
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 07:41 AM   #11066
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
You are taking that comparison out of context. My reply was to chornedsnorkack for intercity travel. Go back and read the original post on 8/29. The conclusion is trains are not cheap in general and hence migrants don't use them since they are even poorer than those who can afford intercity travel.

High-speed trains are not able to reach the rural farming communities where these migrants come from anyway. They are for the middle class folks and business travelers who need intercity travel. By the way, you do realize there are migrants who move between cities, right? These are the wealthier folks who are more closer to middle class than the farming migrants and hence may consider flying or CRH trains.

But then, you are not able to understand this distinction and the discussion then morphed into a tangent looking at cost per unit of distance, which is completely irrelevant to consumer behaviour. I suggest you re-read how the discussion changed from its beginnings in late August.
I am not referring to your latest shift in arguments but to your original post that you failed to back up and provided a flawed example.
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 08:15 AM   #11067
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And I directly inquired about your mention:
Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
the masses travel on K trains or even cheaper highway buses.
I´ve provided an example of K train pricing. I could not provide bus pricing, because these are all Chinese to me. Have you?
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 08:44 AM   #11068
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
I am not referring to your latest shift in arguments but to your original post that you failed to back up and provided a flawed example.
Have you not read the news articles I had posted, or conveniently ignored them since they all prove your line of thought wrong?

There is plenty of literature out there on China's Spring festival rush.

You still haven't provided empirical evidence on why my points are wrong. You should work on that.
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 09:07 AM   #11069
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Have you not read the news articles I had posted, or conveniently ignored them since they all prove your line of thought wrong?
I actually quoted articles and data sources provided by yourself to prove that your claims were wrong

Quote:
You still haven't provided empirical evidence on why my points are wrong. You should work on that.
I have. You failed to address any of them. Your 'empirical evidence' on the other hand was limited to 'I know', 'everyone knows' or 'how can a foreigner know better than us (who?)' and a flawed example of a 700km journey being compared to a 1300km journey. Such evidence does not stand any criticism and therefore was easily rebuffed.
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 01:35 PM   #11070
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
I actually quoted articles and data sources provided by yourself to prove that your claims were wrong

I have. You failed to address any of them. Your 'empirical evidence' on the other hand was limited to 'I know', 'everyone knows' or 'how can a foreigner know better than us (who?)' and a flawed example of a 700km journey being compared to a 1300km journey. Such evidence does not stand any criticism and therefore was easily rebuffed.
Your flawed conclusions come from a per km pricing mechanism that consumers don't consider in their transport decisions and utter ignorance that migrants may even consider using airport buses in their journeys.

Here is yet another chart that shows buses are the primary mode of transport for that huge annual migration during the Spring festival :



Same story as before.
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 01:45 PM   #11071
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Your flawed conclusions come from a per km pricing mechanism that consumers don't consider in their transport decisions
Indeed they don't. The consumers care about total price.
But the thing was that your chosen comparison was a case where road is direct but rail makes a big detour and also has only G trains, not D nor K trains.
I do not speak for Pansori, but always agreed that G trains are expensive.
What we've been asked is to look at routes which DO have fairly direct D train service. Such as Guangzhou-Nanning.
We have a search result that on this specific route, D train is about as cheap as a bus and also much faster.
Is this typical? And how do migrant workers travel on the routes where this applies?

Also: next Saturday is 1st of October - followed by a whole Golden Week.
Shall there be a large number of L trains to bring migrant workers home for 1st of October? Or only for New Year?
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 01:59 PM   #11072
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Indeed they don't. The consumers care about total price.
But the thing was that your chosen comparison was a case where road is direct but rail makes a big detour and also has only G trains, not D nor K trains.
I do not speak for Pansori, but always agreed that G trains are expensive.
What we've been asked is to look at routes which DO have fairly direct D train service. Such as Guangzhou-Nanning.
We have a search result that on this specific route, D train is about as cheap as a bus and also much faster.
Is this typical? And how do migrant workers travel on the routes where this applies?

Also: next Saturday is 1st of October - followed by a whole Golden Week.
Shall there be a large number of L trains to bring migrant workers home for 1st of October? Or only for New Year?
Good. This is far more insightful. The cheaper trains are definitely on the migrants' radar. However, tickets are hard to come by and capacity cannot easily be ramped up significantly across the network. They try, but it is easier to mobilize buses than trains.

I personally think D trains are still too expensive for migrants going back to the rural areas. The big issue that has arisen is the schedule cuts on the really cheap K -type trains following the opening of many G and D lines.

October Golden Week is not a typical time for migrants to go home. They typically go home only once a year during the Spring festival due to cultural reasons.

As for Guangzhou - Nanning, G and D trains are priced at about CNY 170. K sleeper trains cost significantly less if seat-only. I can find bus tickets going for CNY 140 on CTrip. However, migrants often bring a lot of cargo with them for the trip home, and trains (especially CRH) enforce bag limits, but they more likely can pass by taking a bus. The 30 yuan disparity would be several meals worth, so even though we may consider it immaterial from a Western yardstick, that small amount goes a long way in a migrant's life. Then you need to also consider the trip does not end in another city, but in some rural area further out from Nanning.

Last edited by hkskyline; September 23rd, 2016 at 02:06 PM.
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 02:22 PM   #11073
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Your flawed conclusions come from a per km pricing mechanism that consumers don't consider in their transport decisions and utter ignorance that migrants may even consider using airport buses in their journeys.

Here is yet another chart that shows buses are the primary mode of transport for that huge annual migration during the Spring festival :



Same story as before.
You are once again confusing capacity and availability vs pricing which was your initial claim that you so far failed to address.

Edit: I see you finally addressed the Guangzhou-Nanning route. Wasn't that difficult, was it?
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 02:31 PM   #11074
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
You are once again confusing capacity and availability vs pricing which was your initial claim that you so far failed to address.

Edit: I see you finally addressed the Guangzhou-Nanning route. Wasn't that difficult, was it?
You need to do your research if you are trying to prove me wrong.

I hope you realize pricing is correlated with supply and demand even if prices seem to be "fixed".
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 02:55 PM   #11075
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I hope you realize pricing is correlated with supply and demand even if prices seem to be "fixed".
Surely so. Yet you provided a completely flawed example of that and then kept getting rebuffed when attempted to recover by shifting the discussion. Which suggests that your claims of knowledge and 'research' that you claim to have done are not valid.

Trying to jump to another (even if related) subject won't save that. Admit it already, your knowledge of the topic is patchy and insufficient and most certainly not competent to make claims that you do.
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 03:11 PM   #11076
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
Surely so. Yet you provided a completely flawed example of that and then kept getting rebuffed when attempted to recover by shifting the discussion. Which suggests that your claims of knowledge and 'research' that you claim to have done are not valid.

Trying to jump to another (even if related) subject won't save that. Admit it already, your knowledge of the topic is patchy and insufficient and most certainly not competent to make claims that you do.
What flawed example? List it.
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 03:28 PM   #11077
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
What flawed example? List it.
This has already been mentioned numerous times by more than one person taking part in the discussion.
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 03:34 PM   #11078
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
This has already been mentioned numerous times by more than one person taking part in the discussion.
The example where you employed the wrong logic of a per distance unit price having any impact on consumer behaviour. Migrants need to save money. They are willing to take a longer trip, regardless of direct or not, if they can make significant savings. That's the reality you cannot grasp, yet you still dwell on the per unit distance number as if that means anything to the consumer.

Yes. That is your flawed example.
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 03:42 PM   #11079
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
The example where you employed the wrong logic of a per distance unit price having any impact on consumer behaviour. Migrants need to save money. They are willing to take a longer trip, regardless of direct or not, if they can make significant savings. That's the reality you cannot grasp, yet you still dwell on the per unit distance number as if that means anything to the consumer.

Yes. That is your flawed example.
The absurdity of that example was not to do with total price but with the route specifics and your choice to use it to make a point (why not Guangzhou-Nanning?). It's like saying that people don't take trains from Shanghai to Ningbo via Changsha because it would cost them 1500 Yuan as opposed to 100 Yuan on the bus. And you would be right. But if you can't pick up what's wrong with such an example other than total price, then it makes it very difficult to explain the rest. You need to understand the context, the extensiveness of the infrastructure and pricing per distance unit and put it all in a common picture. For some reason I see that I made you very upset by pointing out the gaps in your understanding of how transport works. I apologize for that and hope we can finish it here.
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 03:57 PM   #11080
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
The absurdity of that example was not to do with total price but with the route specifics and your choice to use it to make a point (why not Guangzhou-Nanning?). It's like saying that people don't take trains from Shanghai to Ningbo via Changsha because it would cost them 1500 Yuan as opposed to 100 Yuan on the bus. And you would be right. But if you can't pick up what's wrong with such an example other than total price, then it makes it very difficult to explain the rest. You need to understand the context, the extensiveness of the infrastructure and pricing per distance unit and put it all in a common picture. For some reason I see that I made you very upset by pointing out the gaps in your understanding of how transport works. I apologize for that and hope we can finish it here.
You can never make direct comparisons on distances between trains and buses because they run on different alignments. Customers don't care about that difference. They care about price and how long it is going to take. So I don't see what relevance is that train line through Jinan vs. the highway along the coast. People see the price and pay for it.

By the way, if you are trying to prove a longer journey means a higher price so my argument doesn't make sense, then you better learn more about how CRH is priced. You may not realize that CRH prices are not truly correlated to distance. Shanghai to Qingdao (CNY 518) is a longer journey than Wuhan to Shenzhen (CNY 538) by over 10%, yet the former actually costs less!

This disparity magnifies for some intercity pairs (Beijing-Tianjin and Guangzhou-Shenzhen). That's why I've said all along be very careful using a per distance measure on any pricing.

Who is absurd now?

Last edited by hkskyline; September 23rd, 2016 at 04:02 PM.
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