Peak Oil - the coming collapse

[wjfox]

Originally Posted by Tango Zulu

There is probably 300 years of oil left at the current rate of use, at an acceptable price.

What on earth do you base this assumption on? Even the IEA now admits peak oil (and they're about as optimistic as you can get!).

If there's so much oil, why are we drilling in increasingly dangerous, expensive and hard to reach places? Why has Saudi Arabia begun offshore drilling?

You do realise the majority of countries have already peaked?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...world_2004.png

Originally Posted by future.architect

Most of the energy sources we would need to meet demand either arent ready for the mass market or simply have not been invented yet.

Exactly. And to develop/deploy those new technologies will require vast amounts of oil. There probably isn't enough oil to replace every car with an electric car, for example. Biofuels would require so much arable land that we'd have massive food shortages.

Originally Posted by future.architect

I think we will begin to see the effects of peak oil within 5 years. I don't think the world will be anywhere near ready by then.

I think we're already seeing the early effects. Higher food and energy prices, etc. but yes, things will start to get really bad in around 5 years. I will post more links/articles as I find them.

There were people who thought the Titanic was unsinkable ... well, the same applies to our civilisation.

An interesting book -

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Collapse-Soc...2313466&sr=1-1

[gothicform]

If there's so much oil, why are we drilling in increasingly dangerous, expensive and hard to reach places?

because proven reserves are counted in the net asset value of the company. you don't actually need to extract them, just sit on them and watch the value of your company go up a bit like property that you don't develop but have planning permission for. say that BP find 1 billion barrels in the south atlantic but it costs them $100 dollars to extract them that doesn't matter... that's another $85 billion on the share price if oil is $85 a barrel! property companies can carry the value of unbuilt properties on their balance sheets in much the same manner.

[Stairz]

what's the point of artificially engineered prolonged / eternal life on a planet of diminishing resources and inevitable strife?

[AndrewC]

whats the point, full stop?

[mihai_alex]

Originally Posted by alonzo-ny

There is a hell of alot of energy out there. The only issue I really see is air travel. Cars can become electric but planes not so easily. We will do it however. You are basically saying the species that has done so much and adapted so well will somehow hit a brick wall. I see people going back to a denser and leaner way of living. We won't sustain our current way of life. That will change and so will the energy source.

There has been much development in fuel efficiency in air travel such as this and all other sectors.

[alonzo-ny]

Well, reducing fuel usage is fine for now but we will need a sustainable energy source at some point for air travel. Hydrogen possibly?

[mic of Orion]

Originally Posted by alonzo-ny

Well, reducing fuel usage is fine for now but we will need a sustainable energy source at some point for air travel. Hydrogen possibly?

biofules can be produced easily, look at Dutch agricultural revolution, look at NASA research, combine that knowledge when can grow enough bio fuels for needs of our aviation industry easily without compromising even an square inch of farm land. A 500x500m greenhouse can produce enough bio fuels for needs of an A380, we'd need to build at least 100 of these to supply needs of BA fleet. but its possible, former industrial estates and brown-field land at the outskirts of every major city. You cold theoretically produce enough bio fuels for all our aviation needs, for that you'd need around 500sqkm of greenhouses (generating around 3.2 million tons of bio fuels) more than enough for UK's aviation needs.

btw 3,2 million tons = 20 million barrels of bio fuel, or around 1 billion pounds at present price.

[wjfox]

[gothicform]

Originally Posted by mic of Orion

biofules can be produced easily, look at Dutch agricultural revolution, look at NASA research, combine that knowledge when can grow enough bio fuels for needs of our aviation industry easily without compromising even an square inch of farm land. A 500x500m greenhouse can produce enough bio fuels for needs of an A380, we'd need to build at least 100 of these to supply needs of BA fleet. but its possible, former industrial estates and brown-field land at the outskirts of every major city. You cold theoretically produce enough bio fuels for all our aviation needs, for that you'd need around 500sqkm of greenhouses (generating around 3.2 million tons of bio fuels) more than enough for UK's aviation needs.

btw 3,2 million tons = 20 million barrels of bio fuel, or around 1 billion pounds at present price.

interesting you mention this. this is apparently what the profits from virgin atlantic are being spent on now in their entirety...

[alonzo-ny]

Originally Posted by gothicform

interesting you mention this. this is apparently what the profits from virgin atlantic are being spent on now in their entirety...

This is why I like Richard Branson.

[mic of Orion]

The End of Oil - Part 1/6




btw goth, i got it wrong i just did some recalculations, 20 million barrels won't be enough for aviation, well it would be enough for 55 A380, but not entire aviation sector, 55 A380 would be able to fly daily without any disruption in supply of biofules, but to supply UK's i.e to replace every barrel of oil Uk uses every year we'd need to cover 24000sqkm of UK's surface with massive greenhouses that would only grow biofuels, in this case UK would be able to supply 650 million barrels of biofuels, 1sqkm = 5000 tons per year (4 growing seasons, although i am sure with efficency in production and innovative technologies this can be increased by 50-70%), you calculate how much we'd need to produce 100 million tons of bio fuels., but to support our aviation we only need 20 million tons, that would allow for 500-550 aircrafts + airfroce.

[mihai_alex]

Taking into account the on growing efficiency in producing and consuming energy, also the possibility of the human consciousness factor, and the production efficiency of biofuels, the energy demand would need much less of the 24000 sqkm by 2030 , which is manageable.

[pricemazda]

the problem with peak oil is not simply about energy. Oil and it's derivatives is used to make chemicals, medicines, plastics and all sorts of other things we depend on.

It seems insane to be burning this resources for energy to heat our homes, power our transportation and produce electricity.

[Octoman]

Originally Posted by pricemazda

It seems insane to be burning this resources for energy to heat our homes, power our transportation and produce electricity.

yes, I totally agree. Whether oil peaks in our lifetime or not it remains limited and is a singularly energy rich substance. There are far better uses for it than heating our homes and fuelling our cars especially when there are alternatives available for these now.

The reason the west doesnt want to walk away from the oil economy is quite simple. We are top dog. We were presented with a paradigm years ago and won hands down. Governments want to be pretty damn sure they can win the next game before they call time on this one.

[mic of Orion]

Originally Posted by Octoman

yes, I totally agree. Whether oil peaks in our lifetime or not it remains limited and is a singularly energy rich substance. There are far better uses for it than heating our homes and fuelling our cars especially when there are alternatives available for these now.

The reason the west doesnt want to walk away from the oil economy is quite simple. We are top dog. We were presented with a paradigm years ago and won hands down. Governments want to be pretty damn sure they can win the next game before they call time on this one.

i totally agree ocot, but you need to understand we are too dependent on oil, especially considering where most of western oil comes from, UK's oil comes from north sea, there are around 20-40 years of oil left there at present consumption, but i'd rather we don,t use that oil for...

there are alternatives for oil, everything we use oil for, there are much better alternatives, everything we use oil or oil based products in our daily lives can be made of alternative materials, true not as cheap, as mass production of some of the stuff hasn't taken off, but if suddenly we had no oil, these industries would pop up like mushrooms after rain, reducing costs and improving quality and what not, one field i am quite fascinated by is nano bio-tech and carbon nano tubes.

[alonzo-ny]

We need to be leaner. It is like computer processing power. I never understood why we simply make more and more powerful computers when it would make more sense to have the same processing power and make more use of it.

[Mad Thinker]

People are talking shit here.

Firstly, people need to distinguish between the "reserves" of oil, and the "resource" that is oil. There are known reserves of oil and we are able to put a rough estimate on how long those reserves are likely to last, taking account of current and predicted future demand. The reserve is essentially the amount of oil that it is economical to exploit at this time.

But oil as a resource is huge - there is a lot of oil left in the earth that it isn't economic to exploit yet, but which could become economical in the future with improvements in technology and with declines in the current reserves. Take the North Sea, there was oil there all along but we didn't start exploiting it until the late 70s and early 80s because at that point it became economical to exploit and sell it.

I suspect that talk of "peak oil" and the alleged limits of supply are alarmist. There is plenty of oil to keep us going for many decades, and that isn't taking account of all the other oil within the earth's crust that we know is there but which we haven't started taking advantage of yet. There is likely to be a lot of it in the Arctic region.

If you consider the real price of oil, once you strip away the disgusting levels of tax levied on it, it isn't actually that expensive. I don't have figures, but I think it would be around 40p per litre without tax. That low price alone gives a useful indication of the supply levels. If we were in any imminent danger of oil running out, it would cost a lot more than that. It is the low cost of oil (i.e. its stable and reliable supply) that has, to some extent, retarded the development of alternatives, such as electric cars. It is apparently safe for us to continue for a while as we are whilst the resource we are using is cheap to use.

However, we know that the technology is there to replace oil based forms of transport. If oil does go into significant decline then alternatives can be made available as it becomes less economical to rely on oil. I see no reason why this wouldn't be the case. In fact, if technological development continues as it has been then god only knows what amazing innovations there will be in 20, 30 or 40 years time. I see no reason why the combustion engine won't be replaced long before oil runs out (not that it will ever run out as such, but if it reaches a point where there isn't enough for it to be affordable to rely on.)

So all of this hysteria and scare mongering just seems a bit mis placed - a good way for a crank to sell some books and a good excuse for the government to tax-rape drivers - ostensibly in the name of discouraging the use of a precious resource and protecting the environment, but really as a cynical way to raise vast amounts of cash to waste on shite we don't need.

I'm sure in 30 years time people will be driving around in their advanced modes of transportation (possibly electrically based, or perhaps based on some, as yet, unknown technology) laughing about how people were worrying about oil when in fact, it stopped being used in large parts of the world long before there was any danger of it running out.

Unfortunately, this sort of miserable and irrational pessimism is beloved of those who want the state to stick its ore into everything, and there are a lot of such people around. Usually the same crowd who've swallowed the Global Warming nonsense. It will all be exposed as nonsense in time.

[Fizmo1337]

We barely dig a couple of km's deep into the surface in search of oil. If you know that the distance towards the centre of the earth is around 6500km (and keeping in mind the centre is filled with magma), isn't it possible that we still could find oil 10/20 or maybe 50/100 km below the surface of the earth? That's a lot of potential resources left we don't even know about.

[alonzo-ny]

Not really if you consider what oil is made of.

[Republica]

the whole energy apocalypse is a load of bollocks in my opinion.

if we found out tomorrow that oil would run out in exactly 10 years, completely, the whole world would just go into overdrive building nuclear power and electrifying everything. all the technology is already proven. any oil we do need will be biofuels. we'd just have to pay a considerable amount more for everything, and there would probably be a couple of wars in the process, but it would end up rosy in 20 years.