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Old September 16th, 2013, 04:50 PM   #301
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Because they're under development? Why don't you actually read the text. God I'm sick of the trolls here.
The empty roads in his own photos just prove that the place isn't teeming with life and activity as he claims.

And it's "trollish" to mention China's real estate/credit bubble? I don't think so. It's just relevent. Credit bubles have burst many times before, not least in recent years. I've never seen a more obvious bubble than China's property sector. Indeed the only reason it hasn't crashed already is that China's government and shadow banking sector keeps the easy money spigot flowing to stave off the crash. They're playing for time. All they can do is kick the can down the road.
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Old September 16th, 2013, 04:58 PM   #302
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Because they're UNDER CONSTRUCTION. People don't move into a project while it's under construction.

Anyway, I don't disagree regarding the real estate bubble. There will (or should) definitely be some kind of slowdown within 7-8 years but I just don't see too many possible negative effects. A developing country with hundreds of millions of people moving to cities (meaning now) needs a high level of construction, and after the 7-8 years, a developed country of 1.35 billion people is always going to have a good amount of construction.
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Old September 16th, 2013, 05:01 PM   #303
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Many of the buildings are complete. Some of them have been complete for years. Yet they're still empty.

The video also showed stalled construction sites. Workers had left, sites were idle. We've seen this before.
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Old September 16th, 2013, 05:05 PM   #304
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Nothing unusual for China or any other developing country. In fact this has happened before. There were 2 big on-hold buildings in Tianjin during the 1990s and 2000s. But they got restarted and completed. Anything that goes on hold now will restart during a future upswing. China's economy will grow to about 5-8x its current size within a few decades which leaves PLENTY of room for development opportunities before the country gets fully developed.
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Old September 16th, 2013, 05:06 PM   #305
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Many of the buildings are complete. Some of them have been complete for years. Yet they're still empty.

The video also showed stalled construction sites. Workers had left, sites were idle. We've seen this before.
How do you expect a sole completed building in the middle of a constructing city to have people in there? It is a freaking new city as a whole. And, can you also PLEASE kindly look at the photos 2 monthes ago, and the photos NOW, and if you can tell me that NOTHING has changed, then I will probably agree with your theory. Yes, there are about 3-4 projects out of 30 that is on hold, but the construction of this new district is NOT ABANDONED.

Trying to speaking a convincing tone and keeping your sentences short doesn't make your argument convincing, and I guess being a person who follows the chinese thread in gaoloumi slowly I have more awareness of whether this whole project has been abandoned or not. Now go back to admire how pretty the shard is.
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Old September 16th, 2013, 05:09 PM   #306
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^ Where did I say the whole project has been abandoned? And are you telling me that none of the ghost cities are actually available for people to move in, even though some were completed years ago, and in some all the flats have been sold?
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Old September 16th, 2013, 05:20 PM   #307
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^ Where did I say the whole project has been abandoned? And are you telling me that none of the ghost cities are actually available for people to move in, even though some were completed years ago, and in some all the flats have been sold?
Of course some flats had been sold, but the beware that - the transportation of railway stations not even completed, commercial management is not completed, then how do you expect people to even work it in? The whole project is planned to finish by 2015 or longer, and I do not expect any people to move in before that. Also, do you really define a ghost city such that a ghost city is where "not all flats have been sold?" Even in London with just a few new buildings compared to this whole new district, I guess there is still a good 10% vacancy rate any time? So how do you expect a whole district to be totally filled with people even during its constructing period?

You have to understand that Yujiapu business district are still in the midst of construction, NOT in the finishing up stage, there is no way that such a huge place can be filled up so quickly. People have mocked pudong before, is Pudong filled up in one day? Is Pudong's earlier flats instantly occupied when the majority of them aren't finished? Please, just give it sometime before making such a generalization and calling it a ghost city.
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Old September 16th, 2013, 05:22 PM   #308
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^ Where did I say the whole project has been abandoned? And are you telling me that none of the ghost cities are actually available for people to move in, even though some were completed years ago, and in some all the flats have been sold?
Which projects you mentioned, the name and address?
Yujiapu projects has never been hold on or abandoned,Transportation, energy center, open bridge and river tunnel construction has been started this year,underground commercial street and underground high-speed rail station is also nearing completion

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Old September 16th, 2013, 09:14 PM   #309
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Because they're under development? Why don't you actually read the text. God I'm sick of the trolls here.
i don't think most of them are trolls, but rather blinded by really bad journalism and news that are not based on facts, but on what makes viewers the most shocked or entertained and concerning china that is mostly bad news, because sadly china is so often seen as a rival instead of an opportunity for western nations at least in the media.
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Old September 16th, 2013, 11:44 PM   #310
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I think it does answer your question. 09:40-11:10 is specifically about Tianjin's port city. I also don't think the extensive interview with Wang Shi, founder and chairman of China Vanke, the world's largest housebuilder, can be dismissed as "complete nonsense". Wang Shi's continued warnings of a massive bubble have been widely reported, eg here, here, and here.
We've been hearing the same over and over and over and over and over again perhaps since 1979 i.e. before I was even born. If there is one thing going on then it's an information bubble in some media on this topic.

But I really like how the somewhat related 'empty HSR trains' and 'empty railway stations' bubble has burst in the Western media a year or so ago. There used to be an article every couple of days on the subject. Then at some point they just got cut. Complete silence on the topic ever since as if it never happened.

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Many of the buildings are complete. Some of them have been complete for years. Yet they're still empty.

The video also showed stalled construction sites. Workers had left, sites were idle. We've seen this before.
I think in order to understand why buildings in an unfinished mega-project are not occupied it takes to first understand how urban development happens in China. There is a number of points among which is the scale of the project (it takes longer to fill large developments rather than small ones), capital controls in China (there aren't many other opportunities for the riches to invest their cash), safety nets (upfront payment and other mortgage rules, limits on numbers of properties). This pretty much means that there cannot be a 'real estate bubble' in a sense as it happens in the US or UK. Even if there will be (or is?) one we won't know about it because there will be no way of telling it with a sufficient degree of certainty. Which is why even discussing the subject is a little lame.


But yes, I know you're just trolling around. As so should know others over here.

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Old September 17th, 2013, 12:29 AM   #311
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i don't think most of them are trolls, but rather blinded by really bad journalism and news that are not based on facts, but on what makes viewers the most shocked or entertained and concerning china that is mostly bad news, because sadly china is so often seen as a rival instead of an opportunity for western nations at least in the media.
This is in part due to language barrier too. Incredible as it may sound there pretty much is a vacuum of information in the West on China. At least in the mainstream daily media.

There is, of course, the Chinese Internet media but due to language barrier pretty much nobody in the West can read it. English language services are extremely limited and sometimes not even very professional.

Of course if you're looking for information you'll probably be able to find it but it won't really reach you on the surface. You'll have to dig for it. And most people simply won't bother.

Such conditions are a perfect medium for sham journalism to flourish where you don't need to indicate sources, provide actual critical insight or context. This is where the 'ghost cities' stories come from. There are big urban developments, you are actually allowed to shoot videos and photos there without any restrictions. All it takes is to go there, make a couple of shooting sessions, talk to some random local guy and then make a story of your choice.

This is so because very few consumers of such TV shows or newspaper articles would be able to verify any of that. And if something cannot be verified easily then naturally the providers of information won't bother to provide accurate information and are more than likely to resort to sham journalism with phantom facts or outright bullcrap simply to make a story.
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Old September 17th, 2013, 12:14 PM   #312
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We've been hearing the same over and over and over and over and over again perhaps since 1979 i.e. before I was even born. If there is one thing going on then it's an information bubble in some media on this topic.
There has already been a major slowdown in China's growth. China's net exports are actually declining. Recent growth has been almost entirely led by construction. This has become excessive, and there are already numerous signs of distress in real estate, which will inevitably impact on the banking sector and economy as a whole. Debt has now risen beyond 200% of GDP.
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But I really like how the somewhat related 'empty HSR trains' and 'empty railway stations' bubble has burst in the Western media a year or so ago. There used to be an article every couple of days on the subject. Then at some point they just got cut. Complete silence on the topic ever since as if it never happened.
The major lines will be fine, but what of the more obscure ones? Will they pay their way? And of course the major lines were built first as they have the strongest economic rationale. The more marginal ones will be built next, which inevitably means declining returns for every additional dollar of investment. High speed rail can operate profitably, but it has never paid for its construction. In other words it leaves a legacy of debt. Lots of HSR = lots of debt. An unsustainable addiction to fixed asset investment is the core of China's problem.
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I think in order to understand why buildings in an unfinished mega-project are not occupied it takes to first understand how urban development happens in China. There is a number of points among which is the scale of the project (it takes longer to fill large developments rather than small ones), capital controls in China (there aren't many other opportunities for the riches to invest their cash), safety nets (upfront payment and other mortgage rules, limits on numbers of properties). This pretty much means that there cannot be a 'real estate bubble' in a sense as it happens in the US or UK. Even if there will be (or is?) one we won't know about it because there will be no way of telling it with a sufficient degree of certainty. Which is why even discussing the subject is a little lame.
You're assuming that China's property bubble is led by reckless mortgage lending as in US/UK as opposed to a fixed asset investment bubble, especially in real estate, which is China's problem.
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Old September 17th, 2013, 12:18 PM   #313
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It's just like you don't see people working in Shards and Leadenhall building now?
Both projects had substantial pre-lets before contruction began, and have gained new tenants since. 122 Leadenhall is still under construction, but the Shard is partly occuppied even as other parts of the building are still being fitted out, so I don't see how they are in any way analogous to China's ghost cities.
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Old September 17th, 2013, 12:25 PM   #314
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Without mentioning wangshi's reputation for being a talker, wouldn't it be ironic that he's building like shit all over the country when he forecast that there would be a giant bubble bursting anytime in china and he would be the one directly affected?
Presumably he wants the government to do more to reign in the bubble. He continues to develop because that's what developers do. It's also illuminating that Chinese developers are diversifying their portfolios overseas as fast as they can. Every few days it seems there's a new project announced.
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Old September 17th, 2013, 03:45 PM   #315
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There has already been a major slowdown in China's growth. China's net exports are actually declining. Recent growth has been almost entirely led by construction. This has become excessive, and there are already numerous signs of distress in real estate, which will inevitably impact on the banking sector and economy as a whole. Debt has now risen beyond 200% of GDP.The major lines will be fine, but what of the more obscure ones? Will they pay their way? And of course the major lines were built first as they have the strongest economic rationale. The more marginal ones will be built next, which inevitably means declining returns for every additional dollar of investment. High speed rail can operate profitably, but it has never paid for its construction. In other words it leaves a legacy of debt. Lots of HSR = lots of debt. An unsustainable addiction to fixed asset investment is the core of China's problem.You're assuming that China's property bubble is led by reckless mortgage lending as in US/UK as opposed to a fixed asset investment bubble, especially in real estate, which is China's problem.
I am not going to argue any more since I think our views are too divergent to reach a possible conclusion. However, I really need to point out your false information/ lies towards China's economy -
1. China's debt has NOT risen over 200%, I am not even sure where did you get that data from, or is that your country's debt? This is the debt of China from CIA's website - reliable? The lastest data shows China's debt at 31.5% of its GDP - less than 1/6 of what you have said. https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...elds/2186.html
Here is another website: I am not sure if it is more reliable than the CIA one - which shows it is at 40%, still 1/5 of what you have said http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/china

2. China's net export has NOT been falling - actually it has been slightly growing as compared to 2012 - and it is the imports which has dipped in fact - http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/exports

3. A major portion of China's GDP is from construction - fair enough - but it has always been the case since the early 1990s, from the whole of Shenzhen to Shanghai Pudong to today's Yujiapu + xiangluowan, construction has always been paramount to China's GDP growth. Many people started to cast doubts about China's ability to manage these buildings - after all, shenzhen is transformed from a fishing village to one of the richest cities in China, Pudong has become the pride of Shanghai. While Xiangluowan/Yujiapu will definitely face more difficulties as compared to Pudong - due to Tianjin's economic threshold and the long distance from the city centre, there is simply no reason to believe that it will remain as a ghost city after its construction - and yes, I will say it the last time - no company has moved in since its basic facilities has not been done - no transport from city centers, no shops, no restraunts - so why stay?.

As I have said in the beginning, I do not want to continue this argument anymore since it seems impossible to reach a consensus giving our contrasting views, and I not want to sound mean and not open to diversifying voices, so ya, I respect your point of view, but cannot agree with it
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Old September 17th, 2013, 06:49 PM   #316
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There has already been a major slowdown in China's growth. China's net exports are actually declining.
LOL. Net exports=trade surplus. Using that as an argument to show that economy is somehow in decline is quite hilarious. You're citing that guy Chanos from 4 years ago, aren't you?

Of course the surplus has shrank from the very peak a few years back. Because China is shifting to consumption more and buys more stuff that it needs. And yet despite that China actually has trade surplus which has been on a rising trend recently too it seems. That actually shows that they are doing something about the economy in order to balance things up and not run into troubles which by any means is a good thing. You really sound like have no much knowledge about what you're talking and only look for any random points to confirm your negative views on China. Yet expect to stay credible. I think this is a wrong place to even try that.

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Old September 17th, 2013, 07:10 PM   #317
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I will say it the last time - no company has moved in since its basic facilities has not been done - no transport from city centers, no shops, no restraunts - so why stay?.
I think it's worth explaining why it looks so fascinating to the public in Europe and US (or anywhere else for that matter) and why some are actually believing that. One point apart from ones I mentioned previously (language barrier in particular) is that there have never been such development projects anywhere else. There simply have never been any constructions of this scale anywhere where such 'ghost town' report creators are coming from. Ever.

Which is why it attracts people's attention and stimulates imagination. When you see a hundred highrise buildings being built in one go and everything looks almost complete but there isn't any street activity it just looks very weird for an average person out there. Whereas the media is simply taking advantage and creates such sham reports which in turn attract attention (= advertising revenues) to them.

Langur, on the other hand is not one of those people. He's trolling around because this does not go in line with his complacent and self-centric cultural and political world-view.
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Old September 17th, 2013, 07:30 PM   #318
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LOL. Net exports=trade surplus. Using that as an argument to show that economy is somehow in decline is quite hilarious. You're citing that guy Chanos from 4 years ago, aren't you?

Of course the surplus has shrank from the very peak a few years back. Because China is shifting to consumption more and buys more stuff that it needs. And yet despite that China actually has trade surplus which has been on a rising trend recently too it seems. That actually shows that they are doing something about the economy in order to balance things up and not run into troubles which by any means is a good thing. You really sound like have no much knowledge about what you're talking and only look for any random points to confirm your negative views on China. Yet expect to stay credible. I think this is a wrong place to even try that.
China's net exports have declined as a percentage of GDP. Net exports no longer drive China's growth. What keeps it going is investment. Consumption has risen but not as a percentage of GDP because investment has risen faster. That's the whole problem.

Chanos identified the problem 4 years ago, and has made huge sums shorting miners that feed China's unsustainable building boom. He has also shorted Chinese developers listed in Hong Kong and finally Chinese banks that will suffer from all the bad debts. These have been excellent trades for his firm. However Chanos wasn't the first to identify declining investment returns (from $1 of investment for $1 of growth, to $3 investment for $1 growth.) And whereas four years ago he was a rare voice, now everyone is saying the same thing. The evidence is becoming impossible to ignore. Fitch now considers China to be the biggest credit bubble in world history.
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Old September 17th, 2013, 07:42 PM   #319
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1. China's debt has NOT risen over 200%, I am not even sure where did you get that data from, or is that your country's debt? This is the debt of China from CIA's website - reliable? The lastest data shows China's debt at 31.5% of its GDP - less than 1/6 of what you have said. https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...elds/2186.html
Here is another website: I am not sure if it is more reliable than the CIA one - which shows it is at 40%, still 1/5 of what you have said http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/china
China's debt is north of 200% including both public and private debt. (Private debt in China includes all kinds of quasi-state borrowers, such as local governments and state-owned corporations.) That's unprecedented for a developing country. History shows that what's dangerous is not actually total debt, but rather growth of debt. China's debt has grown extremely fast, a pattern typically observed before a crash.
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2. China's net export has NOT been falling - actually it has been slightly growing as compared to 2012 - and it is the imports which has dipped in fact - http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/exports
It has fallen from 8% of GDP to 2%. Net exports no longer drive China's growth. What keeps it going is investment. Consumption has risen but not as a percentage of GDP because investment has risen faster (from 43% to 50%). That's the whole problem.
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3. A major portion of China's GDP is from construction - fair enough - but it has always been the case since the early 1990s, from the whole of Shenzhen to Shanghai Pudong to today's Yujiapu + xiangluowan, construction has always been paramount to China's GDP growth. Many people started to cast doubts about China's ability to manage these buildings - after all, shenzhen is transformed from a fishing village to one of the richest cities in China, Pudong has become the pride of Shanghai. While Xiangluowan/Yujiapu will definitely face more difficulties as compared to Pudong - due to Tianjin's economic threshold and the long distance from the city centre, there is simply no reason to believe that it will remain as a ghost city after its construction - and yes, I will say it the last time - no company has moved in since its basic facilities has not been done - no transport from city centers, no shops, no restraunts - so why stay?.

As I have said in the beginning, I do not want to continue this argument anymore since it seems impossible to reach a consensus giving our contrasting views, and I not want to sound mean and not open to diversifying voices, so ya, I respect your point of view, but cannot agree with it
Yes we''ll have to agree to disagree. I've made my points clearly enough. I'll leave this thread to you construction site nerds from now on. However if anyone thinks all is rosy, or that China's debt/investment model is sustainable, then I have only one word... delusional.
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Old September 17th, 2013, 07:45 PM   #320
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Investment in real estate and transport infrastructure is a problem in a country that desperately needs investment in real estate and transport infrastructure because neither that it has is sufficient while existing is overcrowded or will be so in the next couple of years? I think I get it.

You remind me of this guy with his 'half empty trains and stations' despite this or this being more like it.


Moreover the fact that China managed to switch from export to investment in such a short time shows the strength and flexibility of its economic policies, not weakness of it. It does make perfect sense too. First you need to have cash to build infrastructure. Then you build infrastructure. Then once you have the infrastructure you can consume more and engage in various local economic activities. What China is doing is almost a textbook case of how it should be done.

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