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Old September 17th, 2013, 08:17 PM   #321
Langur
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Don't take it from me. Take it from economists and analysts cited here, here, here, here or here. This may not be what you want to hear, but I for one think the evidence is overwhelming and incontrovertible.
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Old September 17th, 2013, 08:21 PM   #322
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Langur View Post
Don't take it from me, take it from economists and analysts cited here, here, here, here or here. This may not be what you want to hear, but I for one think the evidence is overwhelming and incontrovertible.
I rather take it from economists who have actual market knowledge, operational expertise and long-term experience in the country, fluent language skill, hi-profile contacts within the business community and even the officialdom, geographical knowledge and are actually living there. Like this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun Rein
But in this case he clearly doesn’t understand the economic system he’s talking about.
Not just him it seems.

It's funny though that you were a staunch defender of Roubini too. Why don't you post the link to his infamous opinion on China's investment in bullet trains and transport infrastructure? He was right too wasn't he?

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Old September 17th, 2013, 08:30 PM   #323
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LOLZ Langur. It's suddenly 2003 with empty skyscrapers in Pudong. Do you really have this much free time? Don't stop though, I got rid of cable news, so this serves as current events commentary/comedy.

So what if exports have still grown, but have declined as a net percentage of GDP? You do realize the investment that you criticize is sometimes used for useful, productive investments?

Quote:
The major lines will be fine, but what of the more obscure ones? Will they pay their way? And of course the major lines were built first as they have the strongest economic rationale. The more marginal ones will be built next, which inevitably means declining returns for every additional dollar of investment. High speed rail can operate profitably, but it has never paid for its construction. In other words it leaves a legacy of debt. Lots of HSR = lots of debt. An unsustainable addiction to fixed asset investment is the core of China's problem.
Pure Comedy. You might as well criticize every other investment/social welfare program in history. Criticize old age pensions, criticize public health and education. Imagine Hong Kong without the MTR. *BTW, contemporary hardcore economic incompetents saw it as an unnecessary, expensive, white elephant. Their words, not mine. If Milton (real estate shill) Friedman had his way, his favorite Hong Kong would have never developed subways, highways, public housing, an upgraded airport, etc.

You'll have to wait a bit longer for diminishing returns on transport investment. Despite the rapid pace of investment, both inter and intra city public transit has demand wildly outstripping supply. Much of Shenzhen STILL isn't covered, and it has the population density and the purchasing power to use PT. Neighboring Dongguan is starting to build PT, same thing with Huizhou--and the intra city connections between these 3 neighboring municipalities are still lacking. I only mentioned 3 cities in which the demand exists, but hasn't yet been met.

How did you arrive at those debt figures? Kinda contradicts everything published so far. Unless of course, you think the CIA itself is soft on Communists.


You really should lay off bits and pieces of newspaper and tv commentary. You'll always find at least one pundit to accommodate your preconceived notions--especially the worst conceptions of some far-away place. Wonder why the Economist has been predicting an imminent collapse of China (or Iran, or Venezuela or Brazil), yet couldn't predict an actual economic collapse in its own backyard? That, plus many of these higher profile economists are bankrolled by a small number of vested interests. It could be good for their own ROI, but may not equate as being good for society.

Go read some real economists. There's more to economics than Hedge Fund guys, political hacks, and warmed over status quo apologists who run the very small spectrum between neo-Keynesian and Chicago school. Start with the Physiocrats, move on to the Classical, the Progressives, the Marxists, etc. You do realize investment is a fourth factor of production. But then you could backhandedly acknowledge all this, and then say that it doesn't affect the crux of your argument.

As an aside, I do wonder about your domestic UK criticisms. Are you a fan of Thatcher and her various privatizations? I mean, speculators love her--I'm not so sure about everyone else.
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Old September 17th, 2013, 11:30 PM   #324
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Langur View Post
Don't take it from me. Take it from economists and analysts cited here, here, here, here or here. This may not be what you want to hear, but I for one think the evidence is overwhelming and incontrovertible.
June 26th 1995: The Death of Hong Kong
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortu.../06/26/203948/
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Old September 17th, 2013, 11:45 PM   #325
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LOL
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Old September 18th, 2013, 02:38 AM   #326
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Originally Posted by z0rg View Post
June 26th 1995: The Death of Hong Kong
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortu.../06/26/203948/
But Hong Kong involved a political transfer, which isn't relevent here. As a side note, some of the predictions in that article, such as Beijing's retraction of Legco's democratic credentials, or China's creeping interference with the judiciary and freedom of the press, have come to pass to some extent. Hong Kong's still much freer than China, but less free than before 1997. Hong Kong politics has been defined ever since 1997 by tensions between Beijing's appointed stooges, and the populace of HK, who want HK leaders to stand up for HK interests. That much is accurate.

However I think far more apt analogies are all those who were certain that Japan's "genius" Finance Ministry, who had engineered Japan's economic "miracle", would somehow prevent Japan's own credit bubble from bursting in the late 1980s.

Ditto the Asian Financial Crisis of 1998, or the dotcom bulls of the early 2000s who accused those who were not investing in startups of being "wimps", or, most recently, the bulls who were sure that collatoralised mortgage bonds were gold-plated AAA investments, and represented no significant threat to the banks or wider economy.

I don't recall if you were one of them, z0rg, but there were plenty of economically illiterate skyscraper-nerds on this forum who pooh-poohed any suggeston that Dubai's model of build-it-and-they'll-come was unsustainable.

On the eve of every crash in history, there have always been bulls who say that rumours of a crash are greatly exaggerated, and that the party will continue. Will you never learn?
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Last edited by Langur; September 18th, 2013 at 03:39 AM.
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Old September 18th, 2013, 02:39 AM   #327
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@Pansori and Particlez
I think Roubini is right. You bang on ad-naseum about his trivial errors on HSR details, but so what? He's one of the few economists who saw the crash in 2007, and his argument that China is malinvesting is manifestly true.

Shaun Rein tells you what you want to hear because his whole business revolves around attracting American and other foreign investors to continue pouring money into China. If he scares them off with an honest appraisal, then there's no more money for Shaun. He's not an independent source, and is widely criticised as a mouthpiece for Beijing.

Pansori, you accuse my sources of not having "actual market knowledge, operational expertise and long-term experience in the country, fluent language skill, hi-profile contacts within the business community and even the officialdom, geographical knowledge and are actually living there."

Are you serious? The articles I linked to cited economists like Charlene Chu who lives in Beijing, works for Fitch, and is considered the leading expert on Chinese debt by Goldman Sachs and the US Federal Reserve. "Unconnected"? Really??

What are the chances that cited economists such as Wei Yao, Zhiwei Zhang, or Liu Xiahui aren't fluent in Chinese?

And Particlez disparages "hedge fund guys". You mean uber-wealthy funds that have $billions riding on their trades, who invest on behalf of the world's most sophisticated investors, and who pay huge salaries to attract and employ the world's brainiest economists and analysts? Yeah why would anyone listen to them?

But don't stop there. We've already heard Delta1088 dismiss the opinion of China's largest housebuilder. After all what would Wang Shi know about China's housing bubble?

Presumably you also dimiss the view of Wen Jiabao, China's former Premier (cited in one of my articles), who warned that China's investment-fueled economic path was unsustainable. What connections or insight would he have?

Presumably you guys also dismiss the views of 43 of China's senior government and academic economists, whose chief economic worries for China are "mounting government debt, burgeoning overcapacity and a swelling property bubble".
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Old September 18th, 2013, 03:23 AM   #328
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Langur, now you've resorted to name-dropping? Spare the list of "economists" who are working for the likes of Fitch, Goldman and the US Fed. Their job is to find numerous excuses for austerity--because they want to preserve their bond yields (you really need to look into this). Read "real" economists, preferably dead ones whose rhetoric isn't reflective of any existing vested interest.

Nouriel Roubini's prognostications about the Shanghai-Hangzhou line were flat out wrong. He just can't admit it. If you want a more thorough understanding, read the works of Hyman Minsky--he influenced Roubini. Minsky's writings are more lucid, and they explain the propaganda purpose and consequent misuse of government debt.

Whenever people mention the need to slash government debt, red flags are raised. Even Adam Smith himself noted that no government in history has defaulted on its sovereign debt. You can always print fiat money. Nor does government debt result in hyperinflation--note how the US, Japan, UK, etc. have continually printed money and have had their government debts grow increasingly larger. You may respond with the example of Weimar Germany. Hyperinflation occurred there. But Weimar Germany was saddled with payments in French Francs and Sterling.

Note that New Deal America printed and spent huge money on infrastructure and poverty alleviation. The bankers despised Roosevelt, yet he was the most popular president in US history. And those policies did result in a demonstrably higher living standard and higher productivity. No hyperinflation. Note that Postwar Europe underwent the same thing, and rebuilt from its ashes. No hyperinflation.
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Old September 18th, 2013, 03:36 AM   #329
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Langur, now you've resorted to name-dropping? Spare the list of "economists" who are working for the likes of Fitch, Goldman and the US Fed.
They consult her to hear analysis, not propaganda. And you've conveniently failed to mention the 43x senior Chinese government and academic economists, the former Chinese premier, China's largest housebuilder. Are they all involved in a big conspiracy to trick the world, saying that China has an investment-led credit bubble when in fact it hasn't?
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Whenever people mention the need to slash government debt, red flags are raised. Even Adam Smith himself noted that no government in history has defaulted on its sovereign debt.
Well there's certainly been no shortage of sovereign defaults since...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soverei..._restructuring
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Originally Posted by particlez View Post
Note that New Deal America printed and spent huge money on infrastructure and poverty alleviation. The bankers despised Roosevelt, yet he was the most popular president in US history. And those policies did result in a demonstrably higher living standard and higher productivity. No hyperinflation. Note that Postwar Europe underwent the same thing, and rebuilt from its ashes. No hyperinflation.
Neither I, nor the economists and analysts I've cited, have mentioned hyperinflation as the issue at stake here.
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Old September 18th, 2013, 03:45 AM   #330
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^That's a list of defaults for other currencies/gold. Unless you kill the printing press, you're still able to print and expand the money supply.

Fiat currencies are not the same. Thus a bunch of countries can run up debts denominated in their own fiat currencies, and still just print more money. Unfair? Maybe to you, but it's how things have worked for a long time. Hyman Minsky > compensated "consultant" economists.

And really, DON'T listen to the likes of Goldman/Fitch/US Fed shills. You've just listed a triumvirate of austerity boosters. They personally stand to benefit from the most regressive practices.
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Old September 18th, 2013, 05:22 PM   #331
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Quote:
Originally Posted by z0rg View Post
June 26th 1995: The Death of Hong Kong
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortu.../06/26/203948/
Quote:
In fact, the naked truth about Hong Kong's future can be summed up in two words: It's over.
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Old September 20th, 2013, 06:05 PM   #332
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XLW<<-->>YJP

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Old October 6th, 2013, 04:00 PM   #333
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230m T/O

Tianjin's 22nd completed or T/O 200m+ building, that number has been rising quite fast recently

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Old October 6th, 2013, 05:46 PM   #334
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My favorite part of this is the parks!
(I can't help it, I like public spaces)
I'm really interested to see this over the next few years.
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Old October 7th, 2013, 02:03 PM   #335
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I rather take it from economists who have actual market knowledge, operational expertise and long-term experience in the country, fluent language skill, hi-profile contacts within the business community and even the officialdom, geographical knowledge and are actually living there. Like this.


Not just him it seems.

It's funny though that you were a staunch defender of Roubini too. Why don't you post the link to his infamous opinion on China's investment in bullet trains and transport infrastructure? He was right too wasn't he?
In fact China is not a country,it is two county:Capitalism South China and Communism North China(except Beijing),South China 's economy like south Korea and North China very like North Korea:There are all national owned company and even no large private company.N-China's people are very poor even though it's GDP not bad.Tianjin's salary only No.30 in China,much lower than ever SE China city,it's people can't rent high level office!

You can't use your own experience in S-China city to see N-China city like Tianjin.In fact all Xiangluowan/Yujiapu 's project are stoped or almost stop,no one want buy it.Do you find all photos about these 2 areas are similar to 1 year before? It will still the same after 10 years!
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Old October 7th, 2013, 02:22 PM   #336
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cho oyo View Post
In fact China is not a country,it is two county:Capitalism South China and Communism North China(except Beijing),South China 's economy like south Korea and North China very like North Korea:There are all national owned company and even no large private company.N-China's people are very poor even though it's GDP not bad.Tianjin's salary only No.30 in China,much lower than ever SE China city,it's people can't rent high level office!

You can't use your own experience in S-China city to see N-China city like Tianjin.In fact all Xiangluowan/Yujiapu 's project are stoped or almost stop,no one want buy it.Do you find all photos about these 2 areas are similar to 1 year before? It will still the same after 10 years!
omg southerners are attacking the whole of north of China and trying to bring up intra-country fights. I do not want to attack that city of yours (cause I know where you come from) but I do feel that you should take back your words on the comments about North China. Cities like Dalian Shenyang and INCLUDING Tianjin certainly cant match shenzhen but they are at least a tier better than many of the Southern cities, all way round.
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Old October 7th, 2013, 06:31 PM   #337
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The very simplistic way to think of China's economy, is as a sponge.

What people don't take into account (about any economy, really) is that growth is more about expectations than reality. These developments are going up because of the expectation that there will be plenty of future demand to go around. In other words, Tianjin will always be in Beijing's shadow, but as time goes on (especially as we're seeing with the HSR network), it's going to become attractive for companies to locate specific non-vital offices and operations in cities like Tianjin rather than Beijing....

When we talk about "bubbles" in China, it's rather confusing. Bubble in what? You can't make the case that there's a bubble in real estate; though you certainly can say that there is a bubble in residential developments and possibly one in certain commercial ones. However, at this point in time, the absolute BEST return on your investment is in office developments.

Anyways, that is all to say, what China looks like now, is not going to be the case 50 years from now. These large cities like Beijing and Shanghai are going to condense (e.g. when incomes finally move at par with economic growth, we will see people do one of two things 1) relocate further into the inner areas of cities or 2) relocate to smaller cities. In the future, for example, Shanghai will be a very important player in the Yangzte River Delta, but cities like Suzhou, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Nanjing, et. al will also be far more important than they are now.

We won't be seeing the development styles in which the cities of Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, etc are "everything." In other words, development will spread more laterally than vertically. Developments like this in Tianjin are a very good demonstration of that reality.

This is probably one of the best kinds of investments one could make in China at the moment...
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Old October 10th, 2013, 02:13 AM   #338
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cho oyo View Post
In fact China is not a country,it is two county:Capitalism South China and Communism North China(except Beijing),South China 's economy like south Korea and North China very like North Korea:There are all national owned company and even no large private company.N-China's people are very poor even though it's GDP not bad.Tianjin's salary only No.30 in China,much lower than ever SE China city,it's people can't rent high level office!

You can't use your own experience in S-China city to see N-China city like Tianjin.In fact all Xiangluowan/Yujiapu 's project are stoped or almost stop,no one want buy it.Do you find all photos about these 2 areas are similar to 1 year before? It will still the same after 10 years!
That's nonsense, it is stupid to compare north China with North Korea. All the state own enterprise in north China have way more cash than those in North Korea as north China is way more developed. These state owned enterprises certainly have enough cash to buy or rent these new buildings in Tianjin.
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Old October 10th, 2013, 06:37 PM   #339
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All these buildings look stalled. No cladding at all and no workers, whats the situation here?
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Old October 10th, 2013, 09:01 PM   #340
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This is a vicious cycle, I tell ya'...
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