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Old October 31st, 2015, 03:47 AM   #481
jaysonn341
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This place doesn't look to far from CTF, which means it being in the "middle of nowhere" is highly exaggerated.
Quite certain the existing city will expand south to incorporate this new CBD.
Most likely they are waiting for financial reform to kick start this place.

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Old October 31st, 2015, 04:08 AM   #482
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I'll agree it takes time. Shanghai's Lujiazui district comes to mind.

But this area is years behind schedule. It's just very disappointing. It doesn't seem well thought out.
It's not well thought out in terms of how to stimulate the demand needed to fill the office space, but it seems very well thought out in terms of the planning. There's absolutely massive investment in the transport infrastructure, and quite a bit in public space and the arts. The question is how they are going to get tenants to fill the buildings in this location. It's basically planned as the CBD of a huge urban area, but without the huge urban area around it to support it.
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Old October 31st, 2015, 06:31 AM   #483
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This place doesn't look to far from CTF, which means it being in the "middle of nowhere" is highly exaggerated.
Quite certain the existing city will expand south to incorporate this new CBD.
Most likely they are waiting for financial reform to kick start this place.


Is it exaggerated? Seems like it. If it was desirable it would be full, right? It's not though. It's incomplete. It's over promised and undelivered.

They decided to build 20 + office buildings in an unattractive area on pure speculation. It hasn't worked out. It might in 5-10 years. But it isn't 2020 or 2025. It's 2015. They're empty. They're behind schedule. The demand isn't there. It might be in another 5+ years. But right now, this project is a failure.

I'm not trying to be a troll or cynic. But I just want the boosters and fanboys to admit this is a huge failure at the moment. It might work out like Lujiaziu. But it may not.
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Old October 31st, 2015, 07:41 AM   #484
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Well with that attitude, we all might as well just give up and go home. We all agree and admit it is far from being a bustling urban centre we all want to see. However if this forum has taught me anything about projects in China, it is that we know nothing about how things work there. We all gave up on that Zhengzhou new district 3 years ago, CBS news knows all about that one. Now look at it.
I too was skeptical about this entire area, but if a company like CTF is building a 500m tower there, they must know something we don't. Until I start seeing nature taking over this CBD, I wouldn't write it off just yet.
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Old October 31st, 2015, 11:47 AM   #485
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The area is not unattractive, geographically it is in an excellent location. Eventually it will be filled and active. It is a question of when rather than if, but when could still be some time away.
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Old October 31st, 2015, 04:23 PM   #486
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I guess almost anything looks attractive to someone from Södertälje


(Sorry. I love Stockholm but I couldn't help myself).


Anyway I think it looks good as well. I wonder why it looks as if the green area on the roof isn't recreational.
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Old November 1st, 2015, 12:51 AM   #487
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Is it exaggerated? Seems like it. If it was desirable it would be full, right? It's not though. It's incomplete. It's over promised and undelivered.

They decided to build 20 + office buildings in an unattractive area on pure speculation. It hasn't worked out. It might in 5-10 years. But it isn't 2020 or 2025. It's 2015. They're empty. They're behind schedule. The demand isn't there. It might be in another 5+ years. But right now, this project is a failure.

I'm not trying to be a troll or cynic. But I just want the boosters and fanboys to admit this is a huge failure at the moment. It might work out like Lujiaziu. But it may not.
How on earth something like this should work before even the transport network is complete? You seem to talk about it as if it was an ordinary housing project in the suburbs of some third rate American city. This is a mega-project. Millions of square meters of space in one go. Millions. An entire city. How on earth do you imagine this amount of space be occupied in an instant? Do you realize how absurd your statements are?

Did you follow the development of Futian CBD? Zhujiang New Town CBD? Shenzhen Bay area development? New area developments in Nanning? Any other large-scale urban development in China? According to your logic pretty much all of China (starting with Shenzhen in the 80's which was the pioneer of this kind of urbanization) is nothing but a 'ghost town' because it's building lots of buildings in one go which are not occupied the second they are complete.

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Old November 1st, 2015, 01:23 AM   #488
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Then why didn't they build the transportation network first? Why build 20+ skyscrapers all at once if you can't fill them? I just think a slower, more organic growth is wiser. That's all.
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Old November 1st, 2015, 01:52 AM   #489
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Then why didn't they build the transportation network first? Why build 20+ skyscrapers all at once if you can't fill them? I just think a slower, more organic growth is wiser. That's all.
Street/expressway network is built first. Then buildings. Then rail public transport. This is how it's typically done in mega-projects. I'm not sure why but this was the case in London Canary Wharf, Shenzhen Futian, Guangzhou Zhujiang New Town and now Tianjin Binhai CBDs. It will take another few years before we'll see real activity.

Just as it was with Zhujiang New Town. How did it look in 2010? How does it look today in terms of activity? I visited the place in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. The difference is baffling. Was it a 'ghost town' in 2010? As much as Yujiapu is today perhaps.

How is Yujiapui different? Big projects are not inhabited/occupied in an instant. It takes years. For obvious reasons.

The reason why we're even having this 'ghost town' talk is simply because the 'critics' are not familiar with the urbanization ideology that is employed in China (anyone remember Le Corbusier? That's him) and base their perception on a completely different ideology that they're used to seeing in their home countries. The problem is that such urban development practices have never been used in US, Europe or in fact anywhere else in the world bar Singapore, The USSR and a few other places. It looks completely alien and incomprehensible for your typical Western observer who isn't familiar with this kind of urbanization. Which is why those who are lacking understanding and knowledge simply opt for easy explanations such as 'ghost town'. It's not a ghost town. It's a big project that takes years to build and get occupied. Just like any other big project that we have seen in China or elsewhere. At the moment it's not much more than a massive construction site.
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Old November 1st, 2015, 02:17 AM   #490
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I like the way of china Urbanisation but i don´t like every project.

China doesn´t have a free economy. Also the west doesn´t have a free economy. In China and all around the world, it is a Fiat-Money-System. Read about the Austrian School of Economics what it means: Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich August von Hayek, Carl Menger, Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, Fritz Machlup, Murray Newton Rothbard an so on. The Centralbanking System with debt manipulation is a socialism planning economy who destroys the market price system. it doesn´t work. It can not work. NEVER, NEVER ! But this is the System of China, USA, Europe etc.

But I like the chinese way of skyscrapercitys. Yes, i do. And i love Shanghai. But China should more open the market system, more then the West.

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Old November 1st, 2015, 05:40 AM   #491
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I'm not trying to be a troll or cynic. But I just want the boosters and fanboys to admit this is a huge failure at the moment. It might work out like Lujiaziu. But it may not.
The Empire State Building and the WTC took years to fill up. Were they failures too?
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Old November 1st, 2015, 06:16 AM   #492
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He's trying to say its a failure "at this very moment". Well no sh*t, its not finished. It hasn't even opened for business.
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Old November 1st, 2015, 04:46 PM   #493
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TIANJIN | Yujiapu Business District | U/C

The HSR line opened up in September did it not? I've read a couple buildings are finished, including a mall, which does see a small amount of traffic.

And yes the WTC and Empire State were failures initially. That they turned out to be successes later doesn't change that fact.

A project can be both success and failure. Right now this is in the "failure" phase.
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Old November 1st, 2015, 05:31 PM   #494
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A project can be both success and failure. Right now this is in the "failure" phase.
That's a pretty pedantic argument. You can not argue that at this instantaneous point in time it's a failure. Failed projects are a culmination of underutilization over a long period of time. At this point, no one can say for sure that it is a failure or a success so just sit back and enjoy the show.
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Old November 1st, 2015, 07:28 PM   #495
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Ok so we're all agreed then, we hold back any judgement for at least another 25 years... Lol.

My snarkiness aside, I can see the area being quite active and vibrant in another 5-10 years. But construction will need to pick up considerably.
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Old November 1st, 2015, 10:25 PM   #496
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It's still way too early to call it a "ghost city". People used to say the same thing about New Ordos (Kangbashi New Area), which had a population of only 30,000 people a few years ago. Nowadays, Kangbashi New Area has a population of 100,000 people.

The point is, it's only a matter of time before these so-called "ghost cities" get filled up with people.
That's some interesting info! I was attempting to count all the 200m+ skyscrapers in China city by city I only got to Changsha, Nanchang, Xiamen and Fuzhou and got 60 skyscrapers UC or complete. China is truly a world apart!
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Old November 2nd, 2015, 02:54 AM   #497
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This project is at most 2 years behind schedule. It's in a wealthy, densely populated coastal region of China with no other comparable developments within 100km. The chance of long-term failure is essentially zero.
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Old November 2nd, 2015, 07:52 PM   #498
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Just wanna ask the people who know more than me about this district, are these buildings completed:

- Yujiapu Business District 1-10
- Yujiapu Bohai Bank Tower

and I'm not sure if this building is part of the district..

- Tianjin Rural Commercial Building

Please it would be good to get a response images are a bonus !
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Old November 5th, 2015, 07:09 AM   #499
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The reason why we're even having this 'ghost town' talk is simply because the 'critics' are not familiar with the urbanization ideology that is employed in China (anyone remember Le Corbusier? That's him) and base their perception on a completely different ideology that they're used to seeing in their home countries. The problem is that such urban development practices have never been used in US, Europe or in fact anywhere else in the world
If "never" means "not lately" this is true, otherwise not. China is not the first country to do large-scale urbanisation, neither will it be the last. The scale is different and unprecedented, just like it was with the US, Britain and other precedents.

Almost every country and most cities that has gone through the phase of expansion, over-expansion, and crash. Some have done it more than once. It you go to a city you might realise that there are virtually no buildings to be found from a certain period. The city might have gone through a bad patch and people were leaving it, but often it is the time after a particularly expansive period, and a local depression that can last for decades.

The most spectacular skyscrapers have a tendency to come on the market just before or just after a crash. They are planned and constructed during the time of greatest optimism, and by the time they are finished that optimism has evaporated.

"This time is different" isn't. The law of gravity applies to China too. That doesn't mean that the criticism is always well-founded. In a crowd there will be professional pessimists just like professional optimists. When the crisis does come, he or he can say "I told you so" and everyone can bow to his wisdom and foresight.

There are hundreds of millions Chinese who haven't moved to the cities yet, the infrastructure is often deficient. Undoubtably there is a need. But "if we build it they will come" is a high-risk strategy, and can at the least be sub-optimal. However, unless placed in a in-hindsight-ridiculous location, or of poor quality, or too expensive to maintain, the building or infrastructure will eventually be used.
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Old November 5th, 2015, 11:15 AM   #500
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Does "Jing-Jin-Ji" ring any bell here? This area of Tianjin will be one of the main CBDs of the entire Bohai Economic Rim. Additionally Tianjin is growing at the highest rate of any major city in the entirety of northern China (population and GPD wise). There is virtually zero chance for a long-term failure of this project. And even if it would fill up more slowly than expected there are always some huge state-controlled enterprises that could be relocated there by central planning, thereby making the whole area more attractive. Some people seem to forget that this is not some ambitious governor pipe dream project in inner Mongolia
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