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Old October 29th, 2016, 06:47 AM   #2521
gennadius
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ACAPSreader View Post
This is my summary, as best I know it. If anyone knows better, please correct.
So, how is the backlog?

For the -8F, if Volga-Dnepr new-builds every single plane left on its order, including those on the firing order, and UPS completes its order of 14, and NCA takes their two, then we have a backlog of 32 freighters, or 5.3 years of production at current rates.


For the -8I, if the USAF orders two, and Iran Air takes the Transaero order, including the two current white-tails, then we have a backlog of 4 Intercontinentals, or 0.7 years of production at current rates.


Up to 36 planes and six years of production at 0.5 planes per month; it's certainly an improvement for Boeing, and shows how nervous they must have been getting before the UPS order.
A great summary. Very well laid out and well done from what I can see. Thanks for putting it together.

In terms of other potential frames, I think there has been speculation of the following.

Atlas Air, around one of their investor calls earlier this year, stated that they were in discussions for a potential follow up order of 747-8Fs.

When the Chinese president was visiting the U.S. back in September of 2015, they reportedly firmed 300 orders, including 50 widebodies. There was a lot of chatter that the 50 included some 747-8s, with the most likely scenario being that they were Intercontinentals for Air China. Some of this may be fueled by the statement the president of China made where he said he would like to see 747-8s become the flagships of the Air China fleet. It is still possible that the rumored frames could be for another carrier or could be freighters, since nothing has been officially revealed yet.

Cargolux, over a year ago now I believe, with their previous CEO, had stated that they were already in talks for another 5 frame order. However, with the air cargo growth flattening again later in 2015, and the change in CEO, perhaps this has been tabled for a while as well.

Last edited by gennadius; October 29th, 2016 at 10:47 AM.
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Old October 30th, 2016, 08:05 PM   #2522
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One Air China 748 will be for Presidential use only and is getting VIP interior.
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Old October 30th, 2016, 09:49 PM   #2523
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N1785B Boeing Company LN1535 - Rolled out of 40-22 with engines now.

N1785B TBC Boeing 747-87UF - C/N 63199 / LN 1535 by Woodys Aeroimages, on Flickr
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Old October 31st, 2016, 01:44 AM   #2524
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ACAPSreader View Post
This is my summary, as best I know it. If anyone knows better, please correct.

Building now or in the next few months:
3 747-8Is for Korean Air. This completes their order of 10.
1 747-8F for Air Bridge Cargo (ln 1535), which needs engines and paint.

Building in the next few months:
3 747-8Fs for Air Bridge Cargo. This is part of their messy order for 20.
1 unclear allocation (ln 1543). Currently, our 747classic's summary says it's unallocated. Who knows?
1 747-8I (ln 1544). Who knows? It could be the first -8I for the VC-25A replacement order, but that's not clear.

Beyond that:
  • Air Bridge Cargo has an order for 20 -8Fs. However, it's not all new-builds and includes leases. It's also being handled in parts, so you won't find an order for 20 on Boeing's website. Two were ordered/delivered in November of 2015, and another four were firmed up in March 2016. It looks like, from the original MOU in mid-2015, the following parts of the order of 20 have been delivered or put in the firing line:
  1. ln 1501 (active)
  2. ln 1502 (active)
  3. ln 1505 (active)
  4. ln 1520 (active w/ CargoLogicAir, a subsidiary)
  5. ln 1535 (undelivered, needs engines)
  6. ln 1536 (active)
  7. ln 1540 (unbuilt, in firing order)
  8. ln 1541 (unbuilt, in firing order)
  9. ln 1542 (unbuilt, in firing order)
  10. That leaves 11 of the 20 to be filled over the next 5-6 years, but some could be leases of existing airframes, so it's hard to say how many more new -8Fs come out for Volga-Dnepr.
  • Intrepid Aviation has an order for 2 -8Fs, just announced.
  • UPS now has an order for 14 -8Fs.
  • The USAF has an order for two (considering three) -8Is, but it's not a firm order on Boeing's order book yet.
  • Iran Air an order for 4 -8Is. That could be new-builds, or it could come from the existing Transaero order, and/or it could include the orphan Luthansa ln 1535. Who knows at this point? The order isn't on Boeing's books yet.
  • NCA still has 2 -8Fs left on its order, but there's speculation that they'll never take delivery of them.
Not gonna happen:
  • Arik Air has 2 -8Is on order. Probably will be converted to 777s or cancelled. Arik has some problems at the moment.
  • Transaero Airlines has 4 on order (two have been built, two have not). Transaero is bankrupt, and Rossiya hasn't said they'll take the order. Who knows?
So, how is the backlog?

For the -8F, if Volga-Dnepr new-builds every single plane left on its order, including those on the firing order, and UPS completes its order of 14, and NCA takes their two, then we have a backlog of 32 freighters, or 5.3 years of production at current rates.


For the -8I, if the USAF orders two, and Iran Air takes the Transaero order, including the two current white-tails, then we have a backlog of 4 Intercontinentals, or 0.7 years of production at current rates.


Up to 36 planes and six years of production at 0.5 planes per month; it's certainly an improvement for Boeing, and shows how nervous they must have been getting before the UPS order.
Great !! thank u very much !
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Old October 31st, 2016, 08:56 PM   #2525
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Per Leeham News & Comment...the order for 4 x 748i now has the approval of the U.S. .....

Quote:
"Iran Air will order four 747-8s under the reported terms of the agreement with Boeing. The US government blessed the deal recently."
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Old October 31st, 2016, 09:18 PM   #2526
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danfer21 View Post
Per Leeham News & Comment...the order for 4 x 748i now has the approval of the U.S. .....

Quote:
"Iran Air will order four 747-8s under the reported terms of the agreement with Boeing. The US government blessed the deal recently."
This approval actually happened back in the latter half of September. They approved the entire Boeing order as well as 17 frames of the Airbus order. I assume actual negotiations are going on now and at some point, the orders will be firmed.
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Old November 1st, 2016, 01:07 PM   #2527
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Provisional 747-8 Aircraft Production List (November 01 - 2016)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Updates from previous listing (October 01 - 2016) :
- Firing Order sequence change : NIL
- Added to Firing order : L/N 1543-RC609
- Emerged from Final Assembly Line : NIL
- First (B1) Flight : NIL
- Delivered : NIL
- Ferried into storage : L/N 1523-RC077 (KSKF)
- Ferried out of storage : NIL


Boeing is up to now producing 747-8’s at a rate of 0,5 per month, a planned return to one per month in 2019 has been cancelled.

- The 747-8 FAL is only partly occupied: Slant position #1 is used for travelled work (mostly 767 aircraft), L/N 1538 is still at slant position #2, L/N 1539 moved at October 27 into the final body join position, Wing assembly for L/N 1540 is just starting.
- Headline of the last month is the order for 14 UPS 747-8F aircraft plus options for another 14
- The first two UPS aircraft will be delivered late 2017.
- In the most recent firing order (up to L/N 1543) no UPS deliveries are included, perhaps one delivery slot may be sequential changed.
- According Leeham News three 747-8I aircraft will be produced for the USAF, the first "green aircraft will be delivered in October 2017. (L/N 1544 ?) , see : http://leehamnews.com/2016/10/31/ups...7-8-line-2020/
- All 747-8 aircraft after L/N 1533 are not indicated anymore at the FAA 747 Type Certificate with a Boeing customer code, only 2 subvariants are used : 747-8 and 748F



Indicated are :
- Not delivered (or stored) aircraft
- Aircraft delivered last 2 months (marked #)
- Two already delivered, but not active VIP aircraft are indicated and marked @.
- One Air China passenger aircraft was redelivered in October after VIP conversion at Lufthansa Technik, marked $

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
118 Completed airframes , Delivered 109, Delivered 2011 (9), 2012 (31), 2013 (24), 2014 (19), 2015 (18), 2016 (8)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

L/N 1435 - 747-830, RC021, serial number 37826, F/F April-26-2011, 747-8I test aircraft #2, test registration N6067U, Lufthansa #1 (NTU), selcal code CS-HP, basic LH color scheme, without lettering and LH logo, D-ABYE( NTU), Scheduled LH delivery date was September-30-2012 , Resumed additional flight testing (tail tank, GEnx-2B PIP, NGFMS updates) at May 20 2013, flight testing out of San Bernadino (KBSD) from May 26, returned to Moses Lake at June 18 for additional low altitude tests, from June 28 at Inca Manco Cápac Intl. airport Peru (JUL/SPJL) for high altitude airport tests, returned to Moses Lake via Houston at July 10, latest flight tests are flown from Boeing Field and Moses Lake, Refurbishment to production standard at KPAE completed. Re-registered at December 12 2014 : N828BA. Flown to Marana (KMZJ) for storage at May 21 2015. Rumours are that the aircraft will be used for testing of several of the new Airforce One specially designed sub-systems.

L/N 1437 - 747-87UF, RC573, serial number 37564, (ordered and assembled to become Atlas Air #3, white livery with both rudders painted in Atlas livery, operator airplane number 852, aircraft NTU, re-registered N770BA at Jan 22-2013, selcal code DJ-KM, F/F April 15 2013, Used for (FAA)test flights (FMS software update verification flights?) from September 19 till/incl. November 21, Ferried to Boeing Field (KBFI) at November 22, Returned to KPAE at December 20. Emerged from the 45-05 paint hangar with a special “ Seattle Seahawks “livery at January 29 2014. The Seattle Seahawks logos are removed in May 2014. Ferried to Victorville (KVCV) at July 01 2014 for “engine work”. Returned to Paine Field at September 10 2014. Ferried to Marana (KMZJ) at November 12 2014.

@ L/N 1446 - 747-8JA , RC004, serial number 40065 , BBJ customer : Saudi Crown Prince Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (Saudi Arabian Government ), test registration N458BJ, future registration HZ-HMS1 , white livery, F/F May-30-2012, Delivery date: June 29-2012, Delivery flight (N458BJ- CYVR-KSBD) date July 9-2012. Owner : Bank of Utah Trustee, Salt Lake City, Utah (Corporation). Was stored at San Bernadino . The Future of this aircraft seems to be unsure, because the Prince passed away at October 22-2011. VIP outfitting contract with Jet Aviation (Basel) was cancelled. Ferried, again with call-sign N458BJ, to Lackland AFB TX at October 06-2012. Ferry flight (N458BJ- KSKF-LFSB) to Basel -Mulhouse at December 28-2012. Aircraft for sale by Atlas Aviation Sales & Leasing LLC (Florida), see : http://www.atlasaviations.com/2012_747-800_NEW.php

@ L/N 1466 - 747-8H0, RC007, serial number 39749, Royal Flight Oman, test registration N5511V, future registration A4O-HMS, selcal code FR-AD, white livery, FAL roll-out October 07-2012, F/F November-16-2012, Delivery date December 10-2012 . Delivery flight (A4OHMS- CYVR- KCNW) date : December 12-2012. Cabin outfitting by L3 Platform Integration at Waco, TX, Aircraft modification is delayed by up to 10 months following identification of quality problems. Expected delivery end of 2016.

L/N 1495 - 747-8Z5, RC009, serial number 37501, ordered for the UAE Presidential Flight, Boeing operator identification code : ABD , N974BA, future registration A6-PFB , white livery, roll out date January 21 2014, F/F February 19 2014, Ferried to Pinal Airpark (KMZJ) at March 12 2014, order seems to be cancelled in September 2016.

$ L/N 1510 - 747-89L, RC069, serial number 41193, B-2479, Air China #4, full livery, roll out date November 04 2014, F/F November 26 2014, Delivery date December 29 2014, delivery flight (CCA79-ZBAA) date 30 December 2014. Ferried to Lufthansa Technik Hamburg for VIP modification (Chinese “ Air Force One”) at May 24 2015. Re-delivery flight (CCA88 EDDH-ZBAA) October 07 2016.

L/N 1519 - 747-85M, RC076, serial number 42416, Transaero Airlines #1 NTU, EI-MOW, N894BA, white livery, KPAE, roll-out May 12 2015, used for the Boeing Everett Family Day static display at August 21.

L/N 1523 - 747-85M, RC077, serial number 42417, Transaero Airlines #2 NTU, EI-TSO, N895BA, owner : Boeing Company, white livery, roll-out August ?? 2015, F/F July 08 2016. Ferried to Boeing Field (KBFI) at July 12 to join the Boeing 100th anniversary, returned to Paine Field at July 18. Ferried to Lackland AFB (KSKF) at October 14 2016.

L/N 1528 - 747-8B5F, RC661, serial number 37653, KAL Cargo #7, N6018N, HL7639, KPAE flight line, full livery, roll out without engines at December 11 2015, rolled back at FAL slant position #1 at June 14, re-emerged with engines installed at June 30, F/F July 15 2016, ferried to Portland (PDX) for paint at July 17, returned at July 27, Scheduled delivery : December 2016.

L/N 1533 - 747-83QF, RC644, serial number 62709, test registration N55077, Silkway West Airlines #5, KPAE , unpainted with dark blue rudders, roll-out April 14 2016. Rolled back at slant position #1 at April 25 for travelled work. Rolled out for the second time at May 08. F/F tentative scheduled for first week of November, Scheduled Delivery December 01 2016

# L/N 1534 - 747-8(R7)F, RC514, serial number 38076, Cargolux #14, test registration N5016R, LX-VCN, full livery, roll-out May 15/16 2016 without engines, engines are installed at building 40-22 at the last week of of August 2016, F/F September 07 2016, ferried to Victorville for paint by Leading Edge Aviation at September 10 , returned at September 20 , Delivery and delivery flight (CLX789-KLAX-EGPK-ELLX)date September 29 2016,

L/N 1535 - 747-8(7U)F, RC651, serial number 63199, The Boeing Company, test registration N1785B, KPAE, unpainted with white rudders, roll-out without engines at June 14 2016, second roll-out October 25 2016 after engine installation

# L/N 1536 - 747-8(7U)F, RC652, serial number 63378, VP-BBL, lessor Boeing Capital, leased to AirBridgeCargo LLC , full livery , roll out July 18 2016, F/F September 02, Delivered September 27 2016, Delivery flight (ABW101-KSEA) date October 07 2016.

L/N 1537 - 747-8(B5), RC058, serial number 60409, KAL (intercontinental) #8, unpainted with light blue rudders,no engines, KPAE, roll out September 20 2016, estimated delivery date April 21 2017.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At this moment : three (3) 747-8 airframes at Final Assembly Line (FAL), Everett building 40-22
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Slant position #1 , used for travelled work at B767’s.
L/N 1538 - 747-8(B5), RC059, serial number 60410, KAL (intercontinental) #9, estimated delivery date May 19 2017, slant position #2
L/N 1539 - 747-8(B5), RC060, serial number 60411, KAL (intercontinental) #10, estimated delivery date July 03 2017, final body join position
L/N 1540 - 747-8(HV)F, RC606, serial number 63659, AirBridgeCargo, VP-BBP, estimated delivery date March 21 2017. wing/body join position

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Firing order : 4 Airframes , scheduled for Final Assembly (Subject to change)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------.
L/N 1541 - 747-8(HV)F, RC607, serial number 63781, AirBridgeCargo, estimated delivery date September 01 2017
L/N 1542 - 747-8(HV)F, RC608, serial number 63784, AirBridgeCargo, estimated delivery date December 21 2017.
L/N 1543 – 747-8(HV)F, RC609, ABC ?, Boeing operator identification code 645.
L/N 1544 - 747-8XX , RC 459 USAF ?

? = Not confirmed , only one source.
XX = Boeing customer code not yet identified.

I will try to publish the following updates on the first of each month to stay synchronized with the monthly Boeing delivery publications.
Please feel free to add updates, corrections and remarks by replies in this thread (or by PM).

Cheers, Peter
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Old November 1st, 2016, 11:08 PM   #2528
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Cargolux 747-8R7F - by András Soós:

http://aviationspotters.net/user_pho...r_name=sas1965
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Old November 1st, 2016, 11:19 PM   #2529
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Will you stop this constant crappy spamming Alex67
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Old November 2nd, 2016, 12:13 AM   #2530
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex67 View Post
Cargolux 747-8R7F - by András Soós:

http://aviationspotters.net/user_pho...r_name=sas1965

This is a news forum, not a spotters thread. There are other threads for these type of posts.
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Old November 2nd, 2016, 01:51 AM   #2531
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N55077 Silk Way Cargo LN1533 - Taxi tests only today.

N55077 Silk Way West Airlines Boeing 747-83QF - C/N 62708 / LN 1533 by Woodys Aeroimages, on Flickr
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Old November 2nd, 2016, 05:40 AM   #2532
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It looks like an Iranian Deputy Transport Minister is stating that their deal with Boeing should be finalized in the next few days.

http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/n...s-747-787.html
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Old November 2nd, 2016, 05:56 AM   #2533
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Quote:
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It looks like an Iranian Deputy Transport Minister is stating that their deal with Boeing should be finalized in the next few days.

http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/n...s-747-787.html
Quote:
The details reportedly include moves by Boeing (NYSE: BA) and its rival Airbus, which has its own big deal with Iran, to grant companies In Iran a concession to make aircraft parts inside the Islamic country.
Jesus, that did not go well with Antonov only a few years ago. The Iran manufactured AN-140s were eventually all grounded for safety reasons.
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Old November 3rd, 2016, 02:13 AM   #2534
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N55077 Silk Way Cargo LN1533 - B1 flight

N55077 Silk Way West Airlines Boeing 747-83QF - C/N 62708 / LN 1533 by Woodys Aeroimages, on Flickr

N896BA Boeing LN1519 (Transaero NTU) - B1 flight. Headed to storage tomorrow.

N896BA Boeing Capital (Transaero NTU) Boeing 747-8 - C/N 42416 / LN 1519 by Woodys Aeroimages, on Flickr
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Old November 5th, 2016, 06:29 PM   #2535
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N55077 Silk Way West Cargo LN1533 - Flown to PDX for painting

N55077 Silk Way West Airlines Boeing 747-83QF - C/N 62708 / LN 1533 by Woodys Aeroimages, on Flickr

HL7639 Korean Air Cargo LN1528 - Back on the flight line

HL7639 Korean Air Lines Boeing 747-8B5F - C/N 37653 / LN 1528 by Woodys Aeroimages, on Flickr
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Old November 5th, 2016, 09:00 PM   #2536
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long life to the Queen
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Old November 8th, 2016, 10:44 PM   #2537
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Firing Order Change :

L/N 1543 (RC609-Mystery customer with Boeing operator identification code 645) and L/N 1544 (Air force one ?) have been allocated to UPS :

L/N 1543, 747-8(4A)F, RC531, UPS

L/N 1544, 747-8(4A)F, RC532, UPS

No deliveries in November, two deliveries scheduled for December (L/N 1533 and L/N 1528).
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Old November 9th, 2016, 08:53 PM   #2538
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 747classic View Post
Firing Order Change :

L/N 1543 (RC609-Mystery customer with Boeing operator identification code 645) and L/N 1544 (Air force one ?) have been allocated to UPS :

L/N 1543, 747-8(4A)F, RC531, UPS

L/N 1544, 747-8(4A)F, RC532, UPS

No deliveries in November, two deliveries scheduled for December (L/N 1533 and L/N 1528).
Thanks for the information again! Is there a reason why 1535 hasn't been allocated yet?
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Old November 10th, 2016, 08:06 AM   #2539
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Thanks for the information again! Is there a reason why 1535 hasn't been allocated yet?
I have no further info about L/N1535.

The variable number block RC531-RC540 has been reserved for UPS (10 aircraft out of the order of 14 )
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Old November 12th, 2016, 07:14 PM   #2540
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I would gladly delete these if I had the authority.
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