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Old January 29th, 2015, 11:22 AM   #1481
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Some quotes from the Bloomberg article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ds-for-systems

Quote:
"Air Force Secretary Deborah James on Wednesday signed a document that justifies keeping Boeing as the sole source contractor to provide three modified 747-8 passenger planes, according to an e-mail notifying congressional committees."

"The first new Air Force One isn’t expected to be delivered until 2018, when it will be tested before entering service in fiscal 2023."
The current backlog of 36 747-8s will be delivered in 2017. If the order drought doesn't end it will most likely mean the end of the 747 program after the 3 747 for the US government are delivered.
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Old January 29th, 2015, 11:51 AM   #1482
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jam5 View Post
Not too surprising, but it is always nice to have official confirmation.



There was talk about the Air Force going for a 777-9X replacement instead. A very real possibility as the 747 program is gradually wound down.
They'd never ever go for 2 engines.
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Old January 30th, 2015, 01:18 AM   #1483
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Now that it has purchased twelve Airbus A380s, eighteen Airbus A350s, as well as thirty-two Boeing 787 Dreamliners, has British Airways retired any of its fifty-five Boeing 747-400s yet? Does it have any plans to?
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Old January 30th, 2015, 08:03 AM   #1484
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BA has already retired several 747s, they only have 43 left in their fleet. But at the current retirement rate the last one will only leave the fleet in the 2020s.
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Old January 30th, 2015, 08:24 AM   #1485
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D-ABYS Lufthansa had it's first flight today.

D-ABYS Lufthansa Boeing 747-830 - C/N 37843 / LN 1512 by Woodys Aeroimages, on Flickr
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Old January 31st, 2015, 08:45 AM   #1486
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LX-VCL Cargolux Airlines International Boeing 747-8R7F - C/N 35823 / LN 1504 had its first flight today.

LX-VCL Cargolux Airlines International Boeing 747-8R7F - C/N 35823 / LN 1504 by Woodys Aeroimages, on Flickr
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Old January 31st, 2015, 07:39 PM   #1487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Momo1435 View Post
Some quotes from the Bloomberg article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ds-for-systems

The Air Force has budgeted $1.6 billion for research through 2019 on the presidential aircraft replacement program. The Air Force is seeking to replace its aging Boeing 747-200 aircraft, which will reach their planned 30-year service life in 2017. The first new Air Force One isn’t expected to be delivered until 2018, when it will be tested before entering service in fiscal 2023.

FY 2023 (for the US government) begins October 2022, I presume.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Momo1435 View Post

The current backlog of 36 747-8s will be delivered in 2017. If the order drought doesn't end it will most likely mean the end of the 747 program after the 3 747 for the US government are delivered.
Which means the program will end either 2019 or 2020.

Last edited by jam5; January 31st, 2015 at 07:48 PM.
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Old February 1st, 2015, 01:15 PM   #1488
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The problem i see in the 747-8 designs is that they are simply not big enough to justify 4 engines. The Freighter version has only around 20 tonnes bigger capacity than a 777F, therefore only a limited number of cargo carriers has chosen it instead of the 777F. Passenger version is much worse - it is nowhere near the capacity of an A380, and is barely more than the twin engine 777-9X. Thats why airlines will choose (and have chosen) the A380 or the 777-9X, perhaps even the A350-1000. Just look at the orders => 61 Freighters and shameful 51 pax. Imo Boeing should have either built the 747-8 larger, say typical 500 pax version and 150 tonnes freighter, or not update the 747 at all
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Old February 1st, 2015, 02:37 PM   #1489
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The popularity of the 777-300ER should also not be taken lightly in an evaluation of the 747-8 program. Especially with so many airlines going 10 abreast in the 777, making the capacity gap with the 747-8I much smaller then earlier anticipated.

And at the end of the day it's unpopularity also makes it harder to sell for Boeing. It's always easier to sell something popular, in that aspect there's not a big difference between planes and average consumer goods. Even when you don't take into account that the overall lifetime costs usually tend to be lower for popular planes. Just look at maintenance costs and availability of spare parts, and right at the end of the active service the resale value of a plane.


But I do believe that we will see another last order rush for the 747-8F when Boeing decides to shut the program down. It might be a trigger for Cargo airlines to still get some (more) before it's too late. It won't be enough to keep the program alive, just to keep it going for 1 or 2 years longer.

It will give Boeing a bit more time to decide what to do next with the freighter market, keep the current 777F or develop a new 777XF freighter based on the 777-8X.
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Old February 1st, 2015, 03:49 PM   #1490
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Maybe, but still as you said, it will not keep the 747-8 program alive. Even though i most certainly prefer Airbus, it would be sad to see the legendary 747 go down with such a failed attempt to keep it alive.

I do not see them developing a 777-8X based freighter as it will probably have a negligible cargo capacity increase compared to the current 777F. Perhaps a 777-9F will make more sense, although it is questionable how many very large freighters will the market need. However, on the other hand just look at the sheer number of 757, 767 and A300 (maybe even MD-11) cargo aircraft and even though their lifetime will be a lot longer that the pax versions, they will eventually need to be replaced. I most certainly see a merit for B787/B737 MAX9 and A350/A321neo based freighters in the future
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Old February 1st, 2015, 04:18 PM   #1491
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B 747-8 I looks more elegant than Airbus A380
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Old February 1st, 2015, 11:02 PM   #1492
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tirebolu View Post
B 747-8 I looks more elegant than Airbus A380
No doubt
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Old February 2nd, 2015, 09:21 PM   #1493
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At this point they don't have to. They next replacement (~2040-50), they may have no choice.

They probably should have used a 77W. They'd save a lot of money on fuel.

Quote:
Originally Posted by siamu maharaj View Post
They'd never ever go for 2 engines.
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Old February 4th, 2015, 02:54 AM   #1494
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LN1213 N476MC was painted in Etihad Cargo livery:

N476MC Etihad Airways Cargo Boeing 747-47UF by marcuswong95, on Flickr

Kalitta Air took delivery of LN1378 N403KZ (former Nippon Cargo JA03KZ)
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Old February 4th, 2015, 12:32 PM   #1495
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Boeing is still trying hard to safe the 747-8I.

But if it will be successful is another matter. They are still pitching it towards Emirates with a 100 747-8I proposal to beat out the A380neo.

http://leehamnews.com/2015/02/04/exc...boeing-747-8s/


Interestingly they are not talking with Emirates President Tim Clark but directly to the chairman Sheik Ahmed Bin Saeed Al Maktoum. Boeing offers an improved version of the current 747-8I, with all the improvements from Project Ozark including more PIPs on the GEnx. It's unclear how big the improvements will be over the current 747-8I and how it will compare to the A380neo.

Needless to say that it will have to be one hell of a proposal to win Emirates away from the A380. I will be very surprised if Emirates actually places a 747-8I order but stranger things have happened. It could also be a way for Boeing to show goodwill to Emirates as part of their 787 offering for Emirates upcoming medium haul order where they will chose between the 787 and the A350 (again) and maybe the A330neo. We can be certain that both Airbus and Boeing are doing everything they can to keep Emirates happy with all the future large orders that will be placed over the next decades.
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Old February 4th, 2015, 01:16 PM   #1496
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I do not see Emirates ordering 747-8I either. This plane simply does not fit them. What they need is huge aircraft like the A380 on their major routes (8 daily flights to LHR alone)
And a smaller twinjet like the 777/787-10/A350 on their other routes. No space for the 747-8 in this plan, unless i don't know, Boeing does 75% discount. I am certain that Airbus will eventually launch the A380neo, even if Emirates is the only airline to ever buy it, 100 aircraft should be more than enough to make a significant profit. I do not see Emirates going bust either, these folks have more money than they know what to do with....
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Old February 5th, 2015, 09:54 AM   #1497
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Momo1435 View Post
Boeing is still trying hard to safe the 747-8I.

But if it will be successful is another matter. They are still pitching it towards Emirates with a 100 747-8I proposal to beat out the A380neo.

http://leehamnews.com/2015/02/04/exc...boeing-747-8s/


Interestingly they are not talking with Emirates President Tim Clark but directly to the chairman Sheik Ahmed Bin Saeed Al Maktoum. Boeing offers an improved version of the current 747-8I, with all the improvements from Project Ozark including more PIPs on the GEnx. It's unclear how big the improvements will be over the current 747-8I and how it will compare to the A380neo.

Needless to say that it will have to be one hell of a proposal to win Emirates away from the A380. I will be very surprised if Emirates actually places a 747-8I order but stranger things have happened. It could also be a way for Boeing to show goodwill to Emirates as part of their 787 offering for Emirates upcoming medium haul order where they will chose between the 787 and the A350 (again) and maybe the A330neo. We can be certain that both Airbus and Boeing are doing everything they can to keep Emirates happy with all the future large orders that will be placed over the next decades.
I think what they'll try to do is ask the US gov. to pressure Dubai into buying it.
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Old February 5th, 2015, 09:59 AM   #1498
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkkiller4o View Post
I do not see Emirates ordering 747-8I either. This plane simply does not fit them. What they need is huge aircraft like the A380 on their major routes (8 daily flights to LHR alone)
And a smaller twinjet like the 777/787-10/A350 on their other routes. No space for the 747-8 in this plan, unless i don't know, Boeing does 75% discount. I am certain that Airbus will eventually launch the A380neo, even if Emirates is the only airline to ever buy it, 100 aircraft should be more than enough to make a significant profit. I do not see Emirates going bust either, these folks have more money than they know what to do with....
Exactly. And the 748i isn't very good at carrying cargo. So if you compare a 777-9x and a 747-8i, you get a much higher fuel bill, 40 more pax. and significantly less cargo. Those 40 pax better be made out of gold for this to make any economical sense.

In other words, 8i is dead.
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Old February 6th, 2015, 02:31 AM   #1499
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Quote:
Originally Posted by siamu maharaj View Post
Exactly.And the 748i isn't very good at carrying cargo. So if you compare a 777-9x and a 747-8i, you get a much higher fuel bill, 40 more pax. and significantly less cargo. Those 40 pax better be made out of gold for this to make any economical sense.

In other words, 8i is dead.
Did you mean to include the 747-8F as well?
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Old February 6th, 2015, 09:37 AM   #1500
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Quote:
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Did you mean to include the 747-8F as well?
No I meant belly cargo. These pax planes carry a lot of freight.
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