Seattle Population and Demographics Thread

[JiminyCricket]

Originally Posted by bgwah

The Census says the Tri-Cities is the fastest growing metro in the entire country. Though their growth rate estimates are double the OFM's.

Growth in Eastern Washington has been highest in the South Central part of the state. Not as much in Spokane and the more northern and eastern parts.

One of the things about Tri-Cities is not only are people moving there, but I'd take a guess that the family size and birth rate is higher than anywhere else too. Inexpensive housing costs (except for maybe south Richland and pockets of Pasco and Kennewick) combined with lots of middle to upper-middle income levels kind of makes a perfect storm for easy family living.

Would the amount of k-12 schools be a tell-tale of that? I don't know of any other comparable area in the region that has the same amount (i.e. Bremerton, Yakima, Bellingham, Olympia). Pasco now has two 4A high schools, Richland still has the same a large 4A and a 3A, and Kennewick has three big 3A schools. With a few private high schools as well.

Hell, that's probably even comparable to the city of Seattle with nearly 3x the population.

[Doomgoggles]

Originally Posted by bgwah

The Census says the Tri-Cities is the fastest growing metro in the entire country. Though their growth rate estimates are double the OFM's.

Growth in Eastern Washington has been highest in the South Central part of the state. Not as much in Spokane and the more northern and eastern parts.

Can someone explain why? What industries or growth motivators does that area have that Spokane doesn't?

[bgwah]

The Tri-Cities (and South Central WA in general) has a large Hispanic population. Hispanics (particularly Mexicans) tend to have higher birthrates. Especially immigrants and their children (they tend to fall down to levels near blacks and whites after a few generations). Most Hispanics in Eastern Washington probably fall into this category. I think this is a big factor in that area's growth.

Spokane, the northeastern parts of the state, and the wheat areas in the SE don't have large Hispanic populations. More of the crops in that area are mechanized, and don't require as much labor as crops you'll find in Yakima, etc (usually fruit picking). Spokane's whiteness is still a little strange.

The Seattle School District has about 48,000 students. The Kennewick, Pasco, and Richland districts combined have about 43,000. Pretty close considering Seattle has more than three times as many people.

Some 2000-2010 growth numbers-

Franklin: 58.4% (73.7% among Hispanics, 44.0% among whites)

Benton: 23.0% (83.6% among Hispanics, 12.0% among whites)

[Sounder]

Originally Posted by JiminyCricket

Would the amount of k-12 schools be a tell-tale of that? I don't know of any other comparable area in the region that has the same amount (i.e. Bremerton, Yakima, Bellingham, Olympia). Pasco now has two 4A high schools, Richland still has the same a large 4A and a 3A, and Kennewick has three big 3A schools. With a few private high schools as well.

Amount of new high schools are a good indicator. The Tri-Cities area has added 2 in the past 20 years (1 very recently). South King County has added 4. Vancouver has added 3.5 (only counting smaller Hockinson as a half). East-Central Pierce 3. South Snohomish 3. East King County 2. Olympia 2. Kitsap County 1.5 (Klahoya as half). Bellingham 1. North Snohomish 1. Spokane 1.

[benleis]

Originally Posted by bgwah

The Tri-Cities (and South Central WA in general) has a large Hispanic population. Hispanics (particularly Mexicans) tend to have higher birthrates. Especially immigrants and their children (they tend to fall down to levels near blacks and whites after a few generations). Most Hispanics in Eastern Washington probably fall into this category. I think this is a big factor in that area's growth.

Spokane, the northeastern parts of the state, and the wheat areas in the SE don't have large Hispanic populations. More of the crops in that area are mechanized, and don't require as much labor as crops you'll find in Yakima, etc (usually fruit picking). Spokane's whiteness is still a little strange.

The Seattle School District has about 48,000 students. The Kennewick, Pasco, and Richland districts combined have about 43,000. Pretty close considering Seattle has more than three times as many people.

Some 2000-2010 growth numbers-

Franklin: 58.4% (73.7% among Hispanics, 44.0% among whites)

Benton: 23.0% (83.6% among Hispanics, 12.0% among whites)

I'm sure the tri-cities natural growth rate is higher than Seattle's but comparing the public school system's size is a deceptive way to measure it.
Several factors that make this imprecise:

* Seattle historically ships its families out to the suburbs. You'd be more accurate to compare the metro region birth rate to the tri-cities rate (which would still be higher mind you)
* Seattle has a much higher and fairly significant private school enrollment rate vs. the tri-cities. So you've left that out when just comparing the 2 public systems.
* Even here there's a giant bulge of students coming into the system that this doesn't account for. The district is now predicting it will grow by nearly 9000 students in 10 years.

Ben

[Capitol Hill]

Regarding hispanic family sizes. My father is number 7 of 14 children. He and his siblings averaged 4-5 kids each (except for the gay one) and my cousins and I are pretty typical US average children in household. I don't think hispanic immigrants would vary much from other immigrant groups.

[mhays]

They do, statistically. It's pretty dramatic. But, like your family and my mom's, it's very different after a generation or two.

[Rogue Linguist]

My parents had three children. None of those children have any. Kooky.

[bgwah]

The OFM's 2012 numbers are out: http://ofm.wa.gov/pop/april1/default.asp

Seattle's April 1st number is 616,500, or a gain of 4,400 (0.72%) since last year.

Some other numbers:

Washington is at 6,817,770, gaining 49,870 or 0.74%.

King County is at 1,957,000, gaining 14,400 or 0.74%.

With the annexations counted, Kirkland is at 81,480 (and now the state's 12th biggest city).

Interesting to see Seattle/King growing as fast as the entire state. That probably hasn't happened in a long time.

[xyagentguy]

Seattle's April 1st number is 616,500, or a gain of 4,400 (0.72%) since last year.

Some other numbers:

Washington is at 6,817,770, gaining 49,870 or 0.74%.

King County is at 1,957,000, gaining 14,400 or 0.74%.

With the annexations counted, Kirkland is at 81,480 (and now the state's 12th biggest city).

Interesting to see Seattle/King growing as fast as the entire state. That probably hasn't happened in a long time.

I have no idea at all about demographics, but somehow I'm not impressed with these numbers or % growth. I was just reading in the last year a fantastic article about how Seattle is growing at a pace similar to the sun belt, and how the city is obviously doing something very great to sustain that sort of growth despite the weather.

[mhays]

With people moving a lot less these days due to being stuck with their houses, that's a more decent clip than it used to be. But I think the Census Dept. tends to have higher numbers also.

[Matt the Engineer]

Seattle's been catching up in the past few years. Here's a chart I created in 2010:

This was from a 2-part post looking at growth rates (1) (2)

[CrazyAboutCities]

Interesting. Seattle might add much more people within next two years due to more new apartments available for people to move in.

[mhays]

I agree with that. We have a very large percentage of the local housing construction market.

On the flip side, outer areas have higher vacancies, so they have room to grow too, if the demand exists.

[shotsy]

Burien is poised to add another 32,000 later this year when they are expected to Annex the rest of north highline, Aka white center. That will put them around 80,000.

[Capitol Hill]

If Burien does annex North Highline, are they planning on going all the way to Seattle's southern border? How will the state's GMA affect future development of the area? Will we be expecting increased densification in White Center? The whole area between WC and Burien can really handle a lot of growth, as there are some verrry large suburban pieces of property that can be developed more efficiently.

[shotsy]

I believe this does go right up to seattle's border. The county's policy these days is to get unincorporated urban areas incorporated or annexed into existing cities. I imagine burien will want to increase density in the lower-density areas, as they are moving toward a more urban model in general, and I believe they will also work to improve the infrastructure and safety of the neighborhood.

As far as gma policies in particular, I'm not sure if there will be a big difference for white center before and after annexation, but I do know that burien will be closing down pot dispensaries. Maybe someone with more knowledge of these laws can chime in.

[bgwah]

Burien already annexed 14,000 of it, so there's only about 18,000 left to annex. That would put it at about 65,000 total.

[shotsy]

Originally Posted by bgwah

Burien already annexed 14,000 of it, so there's only about 18,000 left to annex. That would put it at about 65,000 total.

Ah I think you're right. It's surprisingly hard to find accurate info - King County's annexation website isn't clear at all and led me to believe that there's 32,000 left to annex.

[shotsy]

http://burien.komonews.com/news/even...xation-tonight