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Economy GDP, growth, trade, figures, indexes etc.

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Old August 18th, 2010, 02:28 PM   #1
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GDP@$10 trillion in 2014?

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Old August 18th, 2010, 03:32 PM   #2
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HA! That's going to be something. Not only they will pass Japan as #2 but they will do it in a very wide margin. I will not be surprised if they will hit US$10 trillion by 2015. That's going to be more interesting.
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Old August 18th, 2010, 04:00 PM   #3
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Very likely, especially after revisions. Preliminary data will probably miss that figure though.
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Old August 18th, 2010, 06:08 PM   #4
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LOL @ the western media which says that China's GDP will only be 5.4 trillion this year. Some of these reporters need a crash course in economics, and fast. It's not really that hard to understand.
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Old August 18th, 2010, 10:16 PM   #5
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Should top 10 trillion by 2014 or 2015 quite easily, even if the Yuan remains mostly unchaged and no relevant GDP revision is released.
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Old August 18th, 2010, 10:19 PM   #6
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I think this talk of the nominal figure of China really is pointless. As z0rg has said countless times it all has to do with the Yuan and of course a huge % of chinese economy is undercounterd! I think most of the world realizes China's real econony is much bigger than its nominal figure.
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Old August 19th, 2010, 03:41 AM   #7
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Hmm, I thought, the logic should be this year about 5.5T, since last year is about 5T with about 9-10% growth? So if it will be 6T then how many percent is that compare to last year? Crazy!
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Old August 19th, 2010, 04:53 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
Hmm, I thought, the logic should be this year about 5.5T, since last year is about 5T with about 9-10% growth? So if it will be 6T then how many percent is that compare to last year? Crazy!
Thats becuz the revision on the gdp figure,mainland does that every 2-3 years,and many hidden gdp would be found,and those companies that hide their real income will have to pay tax by then,lol
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Old August 19th, 2010, 07:50 AM   #9
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^Oh boy, nobody knows the real size of China's economy. Could be bigger, smaller, revision every year, currency adjustment, is that real or they try to inflate the number, etc., etc.? Never ending China's GDP discussion.

But it seems like each time China's GDP rising and out in the news, the Americans got hit, and feel their ranking sink. Well, their economy is truly sinking now.
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Old August 19th, 2010, 11:51 AM   #10
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Quote:
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Hmm, I thought, the logic should be this year about 5.5T, since last year is about 5T with about 9-10% growth? So if it will be 6T then how many percent is that compare to last year? Crazy!

No man, that is headline growth only, not real growth. Check this, you'll notice that China's GDP has risen 15-20%~ a year almost every year. These figures are distorted by the Yuan revaluation in 2005-2008, hence the huge jump it registered in 2007. But even so you can notice that the real growth has been always far higher than the official growth rate, excepting in 2009 due to deflation.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/...NGDPD&grp=0&a=
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Old August 19th, 2010, 12:27 PM   #11
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For 2010, we're probably looking at the following:

10% real growth + 3% inflation = 13%
Then add currency appreciation which might be another 2%

Of course, that assumes there isn't another GDP revision upwards.

There was one quite recently, but remember that there is a census ongoing. I'd expect a large GDP revision to come out of that, but will that be released this year?
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Old August 19th, 2010, 01:44 PM   #12
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Quote:
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10% real growth + 3% inflation = 13%
It's not that simple.

First half 2009: 13.99 trillion yuan as reported in July 2009.
First half 2010: 17.28 trillion yuan as reported in July 2010.

+23.5%! And this is quite usual.

I also don't understand why the headline growth rate is so low, but that's how it is. China's GDP is climbing 20% a year, nobody is keeping this on mind, hence the ultra conservative GDP forecasts even in the short term. I still remember that back in 2007, when China passed Germany's GDP they said that it wouldn't top Japan till 2015.

And we are talking about RMB all the time, then add the Yuan revaluation when measuring in dollars and add GDP revisions too. China's GDP was $1.1 trillion in 2000, and it's reaching $6 trillion this year even with no revisions or further yuan revaluation. It doesn't matter if growth cools 3-4 points in the coming decade, topping $25~ trillion within 2020 is so feasible. In 2007, thanks to the Yuan revaluation, the GDP measured in US dollars climbed by more than a third from $3.3 trillion to $4.5 trillion, 2009 was a very bad year because of deflation, collapsing exports, etc. Now it's back on track.
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Old August 19th, 2010, 02:11 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by z0rg View Post
It's not that simple.

First half 2009: 13.99 trillion yuan as reported in July 2009.
First half 2010: 17.28 trillion yuan as reported in July 2010.

+23.5%! And this is quite usual.

I also don't understand why the headline growth rate is so low, but that's how it is. China's GDP is climbing 20% a year, nobody is keeping this on mind, hence the ultra conservative GDP forecasts even in the short term. I still remember that back in 2007, when China passed Germany's GDP they said that it wouldn't top Japan till 2015.

And we are talking about RMB all the time, then add the Yuan revaluation when measuring in dollars and add GDP revisions too. China's GDP was $1.1 trillion in 2000, and it's reaching $6 trillion this year even with no revisions or further yuan revaluation. It doesn't matter if growth cools 3-4 points in the coming decade, topping $25~ trillion within 2020 is so feasible. In 2007, thanks to the Yuan revaluation, the GDP measured in US dollars climbed by more than a third from $3.3 trillion to $4.5 trillion, 2009 was a very bad year because of deflation, collapsing exports, etc. Now it's back on track.
You're only comparing the first half of 2009 (which was very weak) versus the first half of 2010 (which was very strong).

The full year figures for 2009 vs 2010 will be different.
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Old August 19th, 2010, 02:26 PM   #14
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Check older data, the trend has been the same for many years. The only exception was 2009 vs 2008.
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Old August 19th, 2010, 03:27 PM   #15
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Thanks zorg for your explanation. So, if the growth is good, it's possible for China's GDP to reach 10T within 5-6 years.
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Old August 19th, 2010, 08:10 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by z0rg View Post
Check older data, the trend has been the same for many years. The only exception was 2009 vs 2008.
Did they revise the half year figures for 2009? Normally the NBS just leave them as-is, which really confuses everyone.

NB. For 2007 the increase in GDP was something like:

Revised real growth rate: 14.7%
Inflation: 6?%
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Old August 19th, 2010, 08:19 PM   #17
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I think rather than seeing GDP growth, I prefer increase in national minimum wage and people purchasing power to buy electronics, clothes, entertainment, house and cars.

I think Nihonkitty is right, we should focusing on people living condition and reducing rich-poor gap like Japan did when their economy is booming. Probably what he means is increase in poor/working class/common people income and quality of life.

Higher salary, at the same time cheaper and higher quality of products, that makes people can spend more, have more, with very good quality of goods or services....like those in developed country.

What we consider as luxury cafe, boutique and restaurant in the modern shopping mall. High quality and good finishing products that most of developed countries people feel as a common and normal. We need to make it to became a common and normal for our people.

We need to improve our products quality, at the same time keep the price low or even lower. Keep the house price low, to make every people in China can afford a big and beautiful house, even for the lowest salary worker in China. I don't think the price is importance, instead the will of the government to see the people have good quality of life like those in developed countries.

I think the government starting need to think: Is every people in China (even for those who live deep in the mountain) can buy a 42" LED LCD TV, high quality washing machine, stylish clothes, car, modern good-size house, etc. What ever the price, as long as people can afford it.

What I impress with China based on your story in other thread is that products in China is cheap, people can spend more and have better quality of life because of it. Compare with other poor countries, where everything is expensive, mostly more expensive in electronics, home appliances, quality cloth, cars, etc compare with in the developed countries. Although the food is cheaper.

It's funny to see a government feel anger, envy, etc, to see neighbor country build world longest bridge, world tallest tower, etc. But at the same time create a luxury tax or value-added tax for 32" CRT TV, all cars (big or tiny), motorcycle, etc. To keep the price high, to make it unreachable for the majority of the people. I see a lot of developing government around the world has this sick mentality. I hope the case doesn't happen in China.

I feel very sick, anger and sad. To see Chinese governments around the world forget this importance thing, just focusing on GDP growth, to keep most of Chinese people head down and living in the slum like house. What is the point, like Singapore, Taiwan and HK have HUGE foreign currency reserve to keep the exchange rate low, to make most of his citizen head down and living as world second class citizen forever?

Last edited by Celebriton; August 19th, 2010 at 08:42 PM.
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Old August 21st, 2010, 06:14 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Celebriton View Post
I think rather than seeing GDP growth, I prefer increase in national minimum wage and people purchasing power to buy electronics, clothes, entertainment, house and cars.

I think Nihonkitty is right, we should focusing on people living condition and reducing rich-poor gap like Japan did when their economy is booming. Probably what he means is increase in poor/working class/common people income and quality of life.

Higher salary, at the same time cheaper and higher quality of products, that makes people can spend more, have more, with very good quality of goods or services....like those in developed country.

What we consider as luxury cafe, boutique and restaurant in the modern shopping mall. High quality and good finishing products that most of developed countries people feel as a common and normal. We need to make it to became a common and normal for our people.

We need to improve our products quality, at the same time keep the price low or even lower. Keep the house price low, to make every people in China can afford a big and beautiful house, even for the lowest salary worker in China. I don't think the price is importance, instead the will of the government to see the people have good quality of life like those in developed countries.

I think the government starting need to think: Is every people in China (even for those who live deep in the mountain) can buy a 42" LED LCD TV, high quality washing machine, stylish clothes, car, modern good-size house, etc. What ever the price, as long as people can afford it.

What I impress with China based on your story in other thread is that products in China is cheap, people can spend more and have better quality of life because of it. Compare with other poor countries, where everything is expensive, mostly more expensive in electronics, home appliances, quality cloth, cars, etc compare with in the developed countries. Although the food is cheaper.

It's funny to see a government feel anger, envy, etc, to see neighbor country build world longest bridge, world tallest tower, etc. But at the same time create a luxury tax or value-added tax for 32" CRT TV, all cars (big or tiny), motorcycle, etc. To keep the price high, to make it unreachable for the majority of the people. I see a lot of developing government around the world has this sick mentality. I hope the case doesn't happen in China.

I feel very sick, anger and sad. To see Chinese governments around the world forget this importance thing, just focusing on GDP growth, to keep most of Chinese people head down and living in the slum like house. What is the point, like Singapore, Taiwan and HK have HUGE foreign currency reserve to keep the exchange rate low, to make most of his citizen head down and living as world second class citizen forever?
MY GOD...can somebody please try to make him think before he starts to write?
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Old August 24th, 2010, 11:21 AM   #19
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MY GOD...can somebody please try to make him think before he starts to write?
No. We like him the way he is. He's 1000 times more entertaining and adorable than all of you nazis put together.
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Old August 24th, 2010, 12:13 PM   #20
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