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Economy GDP, growth, trade, figures, indexes etc.



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Old June 4th, 2013, 05:23 PM   #1
chornedsnorkack
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GDP discussion - Can China exceed 9 zhao US$ in 2013?

The official IMF forecast, as of April 2012, is yes: 9 zhao 0203 yi US$.

There is said to be an "economy census" in China in 2013. What do you think shall the effects be? Shall the census uncover previously underestimated grey economy, causing the 2013 GDP to be bigger? Or shall the census uncover forged statistics by local officials, causing the 2013 GDP to be smaller?
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Old June 5th, 2013, 07:58 PM   #2
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The Yuan is appreciating very fast now. If the trend of the last 3 months is kept during the rest of the year 2013 GDP at December 31st exchange rate should easily top 9.5 zhao US$
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Old June 10th, 2013, 07:40 AM   #3
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what u need to do is just to check what happened during last census year.
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Old June 10th, 2013, 08:51 AM   #4
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What happened?

I remembered that after the last census China's GDP was revised like 30% downwards.
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Old June 10th, 2013, 09:02 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VECTROTALENZIS View Post
What happened?

I remembered that after the last census China's GDP was revised like 30% downwards.
^

What you said was PPP revision made by world bank which is widely suspected by economists for sample miscollection.
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Old October 9th, 2013, 05:21 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
The official IMF forecast, as of April 2012, is yes: 9 zhao 0203 yi US$.
IMF official autumn 2013 forecast is out.
And it is no:
8 zhao 9393 yi US$.
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Old October 9th, 2013, 08:25 PM   #7
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sorry, you mean zhao is billion? what does yi mean?
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Old October 9th, 2013, 08:40 PM   #8
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In Chinese, it is not powers of 1000 that are round numbers (million etc.), but powers of 10000. So yi is square of a myriad - 1 0000 0000. Zhao is a cube of the myriad - thus 1 0000 0000 0000, not 1 000 000 000 000 as in Europe.
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Old October 9th, 2013, 10:04 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
sorry, you mean zhao is billion? what does yi mean?
'yi' means 100 million

'zhao' means 1 trillion

Last edited by Tk.Alv-87; October 9th, 2013 at 10:12 PM.
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Old October 9th, 2013, 10:10 PM   #10
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I'm more interested in whether our GDP per capita can reach $7,000 by the year end, and $10,000 by 2017? What's your prediction?
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Old October 9th, 2013, 10:37 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tk.Alv-87 View Post
I'm more interested in whether our GDP per capita can reach $7,000 by the year end, and $10,000 by 2017? What's your prediction?
IMF prediction is no.
China´s GDP in US$ per capita according to IMF October 2013 outlook:
2012 - 6071
2013 - 6569
2014 - 7138
...
2017 - 9102
2018 - 9865
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Old October 9th, 2013, 11:03 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
IMF prediction is no.
China´s GDP in US$ per capita according to IMF October 2013 outlook:
2012 - 6071
2013 - 6569
2014 - 7138
...
2017 - 9102
2018 - 9865
I think they've updated the figures now:
2012 - $6,076
2013 - $6,629
2014 - $7,277
2015 - $8,019
2016 - $8,828
2017 - $9,725
2018 - $10,711

However, I'm still quite doubtful about IMF's predictions, which proved to have been over conservative in the past
The total GDP is surely to surpass 9 Trillion this year, their prediction (8.9 trillion) just doesn't make any sense
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Old October 10th, 2013, 01:13 AM   #13
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Quote:
IMF official autumn 2013 forecast is out.
And it is no:
8 zhao 9393 yi US$.
US$8.9393 Trillions... close to 9T.

I think it's possible to reach 9T. So the answer is not No, but Yes.
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Old January 2nd, 2014, 11:54 PM   #14
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2013 has been completed.
How long does China need to take account of 2013 GDP? 2 weeks? 3?
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Old January 3rd, 2014, 12:07 AM   #15
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Even if their prediction is accurate, which was 56 zhao CNY, it would still be above 9T US$ on the current exchange rates (1 USD = 6.05 CNY).
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Old January 3rd, 2014, 06:21 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
2013 has been completed.
How long does China need to take account of 2013 GDP? 2 weeks? 3?
Last year (2012), the preliminary data came out on Jan 18th, this year should be around the same time
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Old January 8th, 2014, 10:18 PM   #17
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China's 2012 GDP revised to 51.95 trillion yuan

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/ch..._133029337.htm


BEIJING, Jan. 8 (Xinhua) -- China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2012 has been revised to 51.95 trillion yuan (8.52 trillion U.S. dollars), 52.8 billion yuan higher than the preliminary reading released in September, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Wednesday.

The revised GDP growth remains unchanged at 7.7 percent, according to a bureau statement.

It was the final GDP reading for 2012 according to a three-step publication procedure with more detailed data.

Primary industries took up a 10.1-percent share in the GDP structure, while secondary and tertiary sectors accounted for 45.3 percent and 44.6 percent respectively, remaining unchanged from readings of the preliminary verification.

The NBS calculates each year's GDP three times -- preliminary calculation, preliminary verification and final verification.

The year of 2012 marked the slowest growth for China since 1999 due to external and internal factors. The weak strength extended into 2013, with growth standing at 7.7 percent during the January-September period, slightly above the government's annual expansion target of 7.5 percent.

The inflation adjusted revision was based on verified analyses of new materials such as the government's final accounts and annual reports of some industries, according to the NBS.

Though latest figures indicate China's economy might have lost some steam into the close of 2013, most economists are optimistic over the country's growth momentum in 2014.

According to a report released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on Wednesday, 60 percent of economists interviewed forecast that the country's 2014 GDP will stay at about 7.5 percent.

========

Just would like to share this with you.

As people on this forum have mentioned, the revised GDP figure for year 2012 is at 51.95 trillion RMB. Considering real growth of 7.7%, inflation at 2 ~ 3%, and fx rates changes (+2.65% ~ 3.00%), China's GDP for 2013 is in the range of 57.07 trillion RMB to 57.63 trillion RMB. Chinese GDP figures in US dollars would be at 9.5 trillion USD (+/- 0.1 trillion USD) using 6.05 RMB = 1 USD.
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Last edited by vereveritas; January 8th, 2014 at 10:52 PM.
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Old January 11th, 2014, 01:22 AM   #18
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It is said annual average exchange rate is used to calculate GDP and related data in USD.

Last edited by CheapEconomist; January 11th, 2014 at 01:23 AM. Reason: a typo
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Old January 11th, 2014, 11:22 AM   #19
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Which means they use an outdated exchange rate. They better use current exchange rate.
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Old January 12th, 2014, 10:11 AM   #20
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Binhai New area, Tianjin
2013 GDP: 800 billion yuan
2014 GDP target: 930 billion yuan
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