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Old July 23rd, 2013, 02:36 PM   #701
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Bihar - தீயா வேலை செய்யணும் குமாரு

Nice to see the declining rate but I am afraid that its declining too fast.

India’s Frightening Secret: Many States Ageing More Than Scandinavia


Highlights


*Nine states have lower fertility rates than highly developed countries of the world

* Elderly population approximately 77 million in Census 2001

* Old age dependency ratio will go up from 13% in 2000 to 32.8% in 2050



Is India a young country? The common response is the often quoted statistic; half the population is below the age of 25 years. But look closer and you find that the statistic can be misleading. Actually, it is frightening. Because some parts of young are, as is commonly believed, young, but there are other parts which are not.
As a matter of fact, in many states of India, the composition of ageing population is actually higher (or worse) than even Scandinavian and European countries like Sweden, Norway, Ireland and Netherlands – the oft-used examples to reflect slowing demographics.

A general background first. The 2011 Census in India recorded a decadal (or ten-year) growth rate of 17.64% in overall population, which was a 0.47% decline from the 2001 Census. This means the rate of increase of population of India is falling. Or, lesser number of people is being added.

So, after a spell of population explosion, India is now moving towards population stabilisation. This means that India will soon have more old people than young people. As per Census 2001, there were nearly 77 million elderly citizens in the country – senior citizens are above 60 years of age. The median age of the population of India is approximately 25 right now, and is expected to become 37 by 2050. Comparably, the median age of the world will be 36 in 2050.

But it gets tricky as you start looking at a state-wise picture. Right now, nine states in India have a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) below the replacement level. TFR equals the average number of children that would be born to each woman in a given population if she lived to the end her child-bearing age and had children. A TFR of 2.1 is considered to be the replacement level – a TFR above 2.1 means that the median age of the population will go down. If the TFR is below 2.1, then the median age of the population will increase.



Surprisingly, all four southern states – Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka – have a TFR below the global average of 2.1!

In contrast, the following states in India have a TFR higher than the replacement level and thus improve the averages.



Poorer states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan have a TFR of above 3, which is also reflected in their young population.

In general, as is perhaps commonly known and studied, countries with high development usually have low fertility rates. If we compare the national figures with the top 10 countries on the Human Development Index 2011, only three countries have higher TFR than the replacement level.



According to the Population Projection Report 2006, India’s TFR is expected to decline from 2.9 during 2001-2005 to 2.0 during 2021-25. So, India is likely to reach the replacement level by the decade of 2021, and a decline can be expected after that period. This implies that the Government must start planning for the ageing population of the county.

But this is at a national level. Fact is that this situation is already upon the nine states mentioned earlier. To that extent, these states would need special policy interventions for the ageing.

More @

http://www.indiaspend.com/sectors/in...ndinavia-95807
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Old July 23rd, 2013, 04:50 PM   #702
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After seeing this let the cocoon shelled tamils learn Hindi.(Not my style)
In future we need to interact with Hindi speaking people for day to day life.
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Old July 23rd, 2013, 07:42 PM   #703
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Very True.! English wasn't big in Europe from 18th century till mid 19 century. With the raise of English speaking countries viz US, Canada, Au, NZ and to an extent all the Commonwealth nations... France, Germany, Italy and the rest started learning it.

In India.... even though English is learnt, i don't think the mass has a good grip in spoken English (may be around 100 to 200 million English speaking vs 600 to 800 million Hindi speaking mass.!)

We can already ee this in text printed in consumer goods, TV channels, Cricket commentary and most of all the number of 100 crore collecting Hindi movies.

Once more and more Hindi speaking states come out and reach the level we are at this point (may be within next 10 year). We will see a clear advantage in learning it.

Tourism (Hindi speaking front desk ) , Advertisement & Marketing, easy access to a huge market etc. It can be done with English but only to an extent of 10 to 20%, the rest is untapped due to lack of language skills.

PS: OR..! simply we will have more workers of North origin here. their % will increase gradually... Either they may learn Tamil (didn't happen in mumbai or Bangalore though) or we will learn Hindi

May be we need to wait and watch.!
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Old July 24th, 2013, 02:58 AM   #704
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I think TN will be an exception that North Indians will learn Tamil rather than other way.
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Old July 24th, 2013, 03:04 AM   #705
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chennaidesi View Post
After seeing this let the cocoon shelled tamils learn Hindi.(Not my style)
In future we need to interact with Hindi speaking people for day to day life.
not necessary if we are in TN.. they learn Tamil in 4-5 months

necessary if one goes from TN to north.. we can learn Hindi in 4-5 months

It is as simple as how things work now!
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Old July 24th, 2013, 03:08 AM   #706
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Eppadi ellam bayamuruthuranugapa......Hindi thinikka
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Old July 24th, 2013, 05:58 AM   #707
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Tamil Nadu second in wooing tourists

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Chennai: Tamil Nadu which stood third, next to neighbouring Andhra Pra**desh in terms of att*r**a*cting domestic tour*ists in 2011 has moved up to occupy the second position receiving 1,841.37 lakh (184.1 million) domestic footfalls in the year gone by. It succeeded in retaining the second position in foreign tourist arrivals.

God’s own country, Kerala, is nowhere to be seen in the list of top ten states in India that attracted maximum number of domestic tourists during 2012. As in the past, Andhra Pradesh retained its numero uno position, thanks to the world renowned hill temple of Lord Venkateswara.

The state retained its second rank, trailing behind Maharashtra, in attracting 35.62 lakh foreigners.

“TN has a favourable climate for tourists. It is politically stable and there are no disturbances in the state. Of course, the effective tourism promotion campaign has helped the state to register a growth rate of 34.01 per cent over 2011,” a senior official at the TN Tourism Devel*opment Corporation told the correspondent.

The state is fast turning into a destination of choice for MNCs and both Chennai and Coimbatore have emerged as MICE centres. “We have multi-destination attractions that sustain tourism activity all through the year,” the officials said. Mamallapuram, temples and monuments continue to attract foreigners.

The top 10 states in terms of number of domestic tourist visits (in millions) in 2012 are: Andhra Pradesh (206.8), TN (184.1), UP (168.4), Kar*nataka (94.1), Mah**arashtra (66.3), Madhya Pradesh (53.2), Rajas*than (28.6), Uttarakhand (26.8), Gujarat (24.4) and West Bengal (22.7).
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Old July 27th, 2013, 07:17 AM   #708
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Spiritual hubs lure crores of tourists

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Even as Tamil Nadu rose to second position among States attracting the most number of domestic tourists in 2012, having received more than 18 crore visitors, destinations in the south of the State accounted for more than a quarter of those footfalls. Approximately 5.26 crore domestic travellers explored popular destinations in the region in 2012. According to the Department of Tourism, around 2.4 crore people visited the temple towns of Rameswaram and Madurai in 2012. A sizable number among them were domestic tourists from northern and western States.

“Of the total 1.28 crore travellers to Rameswaram, nearly 70 per cent domestic tourists were from Bihar, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Many domestic tourists travel by train to visit Madurai, Rameswaram and Kanyakumari,” a tourism official said. While 1.13 crore domestic tourists landed at Madurai last year, 1.11 crore footfalls were recorded at Tiruvannamalai, the famed Saivite pilgrim centre. Coastal Tiruchendur, one of the six legendary abodes of Lord Murugan, accounted for around one crore visitors while 83.25 lakh tourists flocked to Kanyakumari on the southern tip of the peninsula.

Interestingly, Kodaikanal, in Dindigul district, appears to have overtaken Ooty in terms of attracting tourists to hill stations. While 86 lakh people toured the Nilgiris in 2012, the figure crossed the one crore mark in Kodaikanal. However, Chennai topped the list among individual destinations with 1.67 crore domestic tourists during 2012. A tourism official noted that while TN welcomed tourists from across the Nation, the inflow from Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal was on the higher end. “People from West Bengal visit TN for both medical and spiritual tourism. The most favoured religious places for tourists from West Bengal are Madurai and Kanyakumari,” Vikram Sen, principal secretary, Department of Tourism, Government of West Bengal, told Express over phone. About 20 lakh Bengalis had visited Tamil Nadu in 2012.

TN most peaceful
The peaceful law and order situation is the key factor for the increase in the number of domestic tourists to the State, tourism experts observed. According to Christie Rajan, chairman of Travel Agents Forum, the stable law and order situation in TN is wooing more North Indians. “Tourism can thrive only when peace prevails. Tamil Nadu is the most peaceful State in India,” he claimed. Another factor for the jump in arrival of domestic tourists was the presence of reputed corporate hospitals in Chennai, he pointed out.
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Old July 28th, 2013, 10:26 PM   #709
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Talking


Karkal Anna,

Avanga hindi thinikka bayamuruthra maathiri teriala, Naam Tamilargal AThigamaaga Kulanthaikal pethu podavendum endru Bayamuruthra mathiri iruku!

In 1980s la Naam iruvar namaku iruvarnu awareness create panna mathiri,

Naam iruvar Namakku Ivar nu sollavaraanga!!

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Eppadi ellam bayamuruthuranugapa......Hindi thinikka
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Old July 28th, 2013, 10:44 PM   #710
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Definitely Knowing Hindi Helps a lot in Rest of India.

I think its changing scenario in TN ....Now auto wallahs n shop keepers answering in Hindi to North Indian is not Limited to Chennai Alone .

Nowadays one can find Anti -Hindi sentiments prevailing in some small pockets of TN , else were TN people have no hesitant in learning Hindi.

What we disliked was (in 60s and afterwards) forcefully enforcing on us to learn Hindi .

I personally feel learning any new language is a Good Sign.

Last edited by staravindan; July 28th, 2013 at 10:57 PM.
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Old July 29th, 2013, 10:49 AM   #711
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From Skybar: Thanks to Chrissib

Fertility rates for India on the district level for 2011


Src: http://www.ceped.org/IMG/pdf/ceped_wp30.pdf

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Old July 29th, 2013, 10:51 AM   #712
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CBR 2011 TFR 2011 TFR 2001

Tamil Nadu 14.9 1.6 1.8
Thiruvallur 16.4 1.7 1.9
Chennai 13.6 1.4 1.3
Kancheepuram 16.5 1.7 1.9
Vellore 16.1 1.8 1.9
Tiruvannamalai 16.2 1.9 2.1
Viluppuram 17.2 2.0 2.1
Salem 14.6 1.6 1.9
Namakkal 12.9 1.5 1.7
Erode 12.4 1.4 1.6
The Nilgiris 12.3 1.3 1.6
Dindigul 14.4 1.6 1.8
Karur 14.3 1.6 1.8
Tiruchirappalli 14.4 1.6 1.8
Perambalur 15.5 1.8 2.0
Ariyalur 15.6 1.8 2.1
Cuddalore 15.6 1.7 2.1
Nagapattinam 14.6 1.6 1.9
Thiruvarur 13.7 1.5 1.8
Thanjavur 14.1 1.5 1.8
Pudukkottai 16.0 1.7 2.0
Sivaganga 14.9 1.6 1.9
Madurai 15.0 1.6 1.8
Theni 14.1 1.6 1.8
Virudhunagar 14.6 1.6 1.9
Ramanathapuram 14.7 1.6 2.1
Thoothukkudi 15.0 1.6 1.8
Tirunelveli 15.1 1.7 1.9
Kanniyakumari 13.2 1.4 1.6
Dharmapuri 17.0 1.9 2.6
Krishnagiri 17.3 2.0 2.6
Coimbatore 13.5 1.4 1.7
Tiruppur 14.6 1.6 1.6



CBR - Crude Birth Rate, TFR - Total Fertility Rate
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Old July 29th, 2013, 01:57 PM   #713
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Murlee,
Can you try to reduce the image size and post.Also wondering why there is no data in kashmir?
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Old July 29th, 2013, 08:34 PM   #714
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May be they don't want "internet" Hindus to be unhappy after seeing the data.
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Old July 29th, 2013, 08:53 PM   #715
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Originally Posted by geico2000 View Post
Murlee,
Can you try to reduce the image size and post.Also wondering why there is no data in kashmir?
Looks like there is big jump in fertility rate in Muslim dominated districts in JK. The census holders too are confused about it and in order to avoid controversy, they posted only for Hindu dominated districts of JK. Here's the snippet from the PDF Murali posted.


What is the matter with Jammu and Kashmir?
As shown further below, our census-based estimates fall in line with other fertility estimates available in India since 2005. Yet, we encountered several difficulties regarding district-level estimates from Jammu and Kashmir and this has led us to re-examine the consistency of the 2011 census results in this State.
The perplexing census data from Jammu and Kashmir
Provisional census data were published within a month following the 2011 census. So far, the quality of these data has not been subjected to a thorough statistical review and no result from the post-enumeration survey has been published. We are therefore encouraged to take census results at face value. Yet, the provisional census results in Jammu and Kashmir were fairly intriguing for at least three reasons and this could have alerted demographers of the possibility of serious data issues:
1. The census-based population growth rate of 21.5 per cent during 2001-11 was significantly higher in Jammu and Kashmir than the SRS-based rates of natural increase (birth rates minus death rates) of 14.0 per cent
8 We have benefited notably from exchanges with Bashir Ahmad, Kamala Visweswaram and PM Kulkarni on this issue.
CBR/TFR ratio (by district)
Simulated CBR (by district*)
2001 age distribution of women aged 15-49 (by district)
NFHS-3 fertility schedule (by State)
Assumed TFR (by district)
Fertility at District Level in India: Lessons from the 2011 Census
9
2. The proportion of population below 7 increased from 14.6per cent to 16.0per cent in Jammu and Kashmir, whereas it decreased significantly everywhere else in India during 2001-11.
3. The child sex ratio decreased considerably from 941 to 859 girls per 1000 boys under 7, by far the largest decline observed among the States between 2001 and 2011.
The first anomaly was hardly acknowledged by any observer even if the difference between the census-based decadal population growth and the corresponding SRS estimate was more than 7 per cent. Census figures tend to inspire more trust than vital rates derived from regional SRS samples. For instance, the observed population growth in 2001-2011 was also unexpectedly high in Tamil Nadu compared to SRS-based estimates of the natural increase, but the gap between demographic growth and natural increase was simply ascribed to immigration to Tamil Nadu.9 A similar logic would imply massive immigration in Jammu and Kashmir during 2001-2011, but that seems quite implausible in a period otherwise characterized by prolonged political disturbances. A sudden rise in fertility would be another hypothesis, which will be explored below. But if we trust SRS trends, an equally logical explanation for this elevated intercensal growth would be a 2001 census underestimation or a 2011 census overcount.
The second anomaly relates to the unexpected rise in the proportion of the child population in Jammu and Kashmir, which became the third largest among the States and Union territories in 2011. This was noted by the Census of India (2011.a), but no comment was offered. Such a rise in the proportion of young population can only stem for a rebound of fertility rates in Jammu and Kashmir. Yet, no other fertility estimate confirms any downturn in fertility decline in the State (discussed below in more detail). Another possible explanation for this discrepancy could be an inflated child population during the 2011 census, or on the contrary, a serious understatement of the population aged 7 years or more in 2001.
The third anomaly is the sudden plunge in child sex ratios. Many in the State opined at once that prenatal sex selection had suddenly shot up in Jammu and Kashmir and this hypothesis received a large echo in the regional, national and international press, encouraging activists to focus on the “new evil of gender discrimination”. Yet, this decrease in sex ratio is contradictory to that obtained from other sources. While rather low in the mid-2000s, SRB levels did increase in Jammu and Kashmir from 838 in 2004-06 to 873 in 2008-10 according to the SRS estimates. The neighbouring States of Punjab or Haryana had also recorded higher birth masculinity during the same period. Birth registration data from Jammu and Kashmir also pointed to SRB levels of around 900 in 2007, significantly higher than the census-based sex ratio of the 0-6 year population (859). The SRS estimates for the population aged less than 5 years are also higher, since they averaged 889 in 2004-2010 without any discernible declining trend. However, there is no obvious technical explanation for this significant decline in child sex ratio except a sudden change in sex-selective underenumeration.
Child population and fertility estimates
The second abnormality noted earlier – the apparent rise in the proportion of the child population between 2001 and 2011 – has a direct bearing on our estimates for Jammu and Kashmir. Any rise in the child population translates mechanically into a parallel rise in CBR and TFR estimates at both the district and State levels. Our estimated TFR level of 3.7 children per woman derived from the census age distribution in Jammu and Kashmir is one of the highest in the country and represents a
9 See Navaneetham and Dharmalingam (2011). For Tamil Nadu, this corresponds to a net migration influx of about 3-4 million people during 2001-11 (Kulkarni 2011).
Christophe Z Guilmoto and Irudaya Rajan • Working Paper 30, June 2013
10
significant increase from the 3.0 estimate of ten years earlier. The recent estimates of fertility in Jammu and Kashmir point, on the contrary, to a gradual decline in TFR levels in Jammu and Kashmir, reaching respectively 2.4 children per woman in the NFHS-3 survey and an average of 2.25 for the six annual SRS estimates from 2004 to 2009. As a matter of fact, the latest SRS estimate for Jammu and Kashmir puts fertility at 2.0 children per woman in 2010, signalling a continual decline in fertility rates in the State.
The gap between our census-based fertility estimate and other figures for the State amounts therefore to at least 1.4 children per woman (more than 60 per cent in relative terms). Our district-level estimates for Jammu and Kashmir further show that fertility level is supposed to have increased during 2001-2011 in almost all districts. This again conflicts with what we know of regional trends, characterized by a regular decline in fertility levels in Jammu and Kashmir according to the SRS annual series. However, we also observe that the three districts in which fertility had in fact decreased at almost the same pace as elsewhere in India were Kathua, Jammu and Samba. These are three adjacent districts are located in the extreme south of the Jammu region and notably characterized by the lowest proportion of Muslim population in the State (below 10 per cent in all the districts).10
We should add here that the most spectacular decline in child sex ratios from 2001 to 2011 have been also recorded in the districts of the Kashmir Valley such as Pulwama (-210 girls per 1000 boys), Budgam (-172), Kupwara (-167), or Ganderbal (-151). On the contrary, the child sex ratio has remained almost stable between 2001 and 2011 in the three districts of Kathua, Jammu and Samba which are distinguished by normal fertility trends,
At this point, we should depart from statistics and come back to the real world. Wild rumours started to circulate long before the final operations of the 2011 census were held in Jammu and Kashmir. It was held that there was a plan to exaggerate the share of the Jammu region within the State by inflating census results in Jammu by, for instance, counting migrants and non-residents. At a time coinciding with the start of the house listing operations in May 2010, Syed Ali Shah Geelani spoke about “a planned conspiracy to change the Muslim majority of the state” through the census. 11 This obviously did not happen since the population growth was lowest in Jammu. But this rumour may also have, on the contrary, encouraged people in the rest of the State to react.
Child population overcount
We already mentioned several hypotheses accounting for these census anomalies. One of them would be a severe underestimation of the population in 2001, in part due to the census boycott supported by Kashmiri separatists.12 But any such undercount does not explain the rise in child population, unless all fertility levels and trends from 2001 to 2010 given by the SRS are equally wrong. The other hypothesis of a real rise in fertility during the last decade is also contradicted by all available fertility measurement available from the SRS and from the NFHS. We are left with a third scenario,
10 Figures are taken from the 2001 census. The overall Muslim population in the State was 67per cent.
11 A few days earlier, he had stressed that the "Although the census is no alternative to self-determination, the local government employees must discharge their duties honestly to defeat the RSS-BJP designs to change the demography of Jammu and Kashmir". See “J&K skeptical about Census, senses ‘conspiracy’”, The Asian Age, 18 May 2010; IANS 13 May 2010.
12 See Peerzada Arshad Hamid, “Counting Kashmiris” in Himal, April 2011.
Fertility at District Level in India: Lessons from the 2011 Census
11
corresponding to an unusual population overestimation in 2011.13 Let us now examine this hypothesis in greater detail.
According to the scenario emerging from our observations, the apparent surplus in demographic growth and fertility rates could have proceeded instead from a deliberate over-reporting of children in Jammu and Kashmir. The fear of a census conspiracy to inflate Jammu’s population could have induced people in the rest of the State, especially in the Kashmir Valley, to overstate their own household population by adding non-existent children. In this hypothesis, many people in the Kashmir region would have resorted to a systematic exaggeration of their household population in order to boost the overall share of this region within Jammu and Kashmir. Adding non-existent children to one’s family is probably the easiest procedure to inflate a population total during the census, since there are far less columns to fill up in the questionnaire. Most variables for children such as mother tongue, occupation, education, or migration status can be quickly entered in the census schedule as 0, or duplicated from the mother’s response. Incidentally, sex ratio levels suggest that in trying to inflate their child population, many households seem to have invented boys rather than girls – as if reporting non-existent boys was easier or more spontaneous.
Additional effort and data would be needed to confirm this wide over-reporting and to understand its demographic impact and exact motives. While the regional Government has already challenged the veracity of the census figures14, its only concern relates to the child sex ratio rather than the entire child population in Kashmir. We have moreover no guarantee that this systematic overcount has not affected older age groups as well. Yet, the scale of this exaggeration brings with it an uncomfortable implication, namely that the active cooperation or initiative of local enumerators in the process of census manipulation cannot be ruled out. The proportion of non-existent children entered in the census may be as much as 60 per cent of the expected number of children if we follow SRS fertility estimates. It is difficult to believe that census personnel could have failed entirely to detect these systematic misstatements, especially for preschool age children who are usually at home during the visit of the census enumerators.
Demographers will be able confirm the true level of population overstatement during the 2011 census only after the publication of data on the detailed age and sex structure. However, a few preliminary conclusions may be drawn from our finding. Since it is most likely that the published figures reflect a severe exaggeration of the real child population, fertility rates derived from the child population in Jammu and Kashmir are gross over-estimates. There is little to be done with such inconsistent and unreliable figures. In addition, the dramatic decline in child sex ratio in Jammu and Kashmir is most probably an additional casualty of these manipulations. The efforts to track prenatal sex selection in Jammu and Kashmir may be simply misplaced and should be redirected to States where the situation is more likely to have significantly deteriorated – like Maharashtra or Rajasthan. A further implication concerns the impact on the decennial population growth rate. After correction for the fertility overstatement, an alternative 2011 population total would in fact be in the range of 11.75 million – as against the published provisional total of 12.55.15 The decennial population growth rate would be reduced from the published figure of 23.7 per cent to an estimated growth rate of 16.2 per cent – a
13 Dr. Bashir Ahmad Bhat (Population Research Centre, Srinagar) is the first scholar to raise the possibility of a census over-count in May 2011. See his “Where have they gone? Searching Missing Girls in Jammu and Kashmir”, Greater Kashmir, 12 May 2011.

value significantly closer to the SRS-estimated natural rate of increase of 14.0 per cent from 2001 to 2010.16 Since the inflation in population numbers during the census has apparently been concentrated among the Muslim population as seems to have been the case, we may also expect a jump in the proportion of the Muslims in the State according to the official census returns. This increase may artificially raise the proportion of Muslims from 67 per cent in 2001 to about 70 per cent of the State population in 2011, a bogus trend likely to launch another futile round of controversies about religious demographic differentials in Jammu and Kashmir and in India.17 We finally add that the countrywide fertility estimate is only marginally affected by the removal of Jammu and Kashmir districts from our estimate since the State accounts only for 1 per cent of India’s total population and its presumed TFR level, according to the SRS or NFHS figures, is very close to the national average.
In view of the aforementioned difficulties and the doubt over the quality of census data, we have decided to exclude Jammu and Kashmir from the purview of our estimation exercise. We do not want to circulate any potentially misleading fertility estimates related to Jammu and Kashmir in view of the data issues exposed here. Neither do we wish to feed pointless discussion about an alleged fertility rise in Jammu and Kashmir. Biased estimates of child sex ratio levels from the 2011 census in Jammu and Kashmir.
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Old July 29th, 2013, 11:03 PM   #716
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Bihar - தீயா வேலை செய்யணும் குமாரு
Shouldn't it be the other way? தீயா வேலை செய்ய koodathu
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Old July 30th, 2013, 01:11 AM   #717
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Originally Posted by dpitchai View Post
May be they don't want "internet" Hindus to be unhappy after seeing the data.
enna future India'va pathi eppadi sollittenga?
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Old July 30th, 2013, 01:13 AM   #718
geico2000
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Shouldn't it be the other way? தீயா வேலை செய்ய koodathu
That we(southern states) took and implemented too seriously..
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The New Secularism of India - Be and Behave, Anti Hindu

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Old July 30th, 2013, 05:19 AM   #719
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Geico na.. a smaller pic for u..

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Old July 30th, 2013, 05:47 AM   #720
dpitchai
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Annan innerum mattayairupaaru...
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