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Old February 4th, 2012, 11:36 PM   #601
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The 50% chance came because I see no evidence that this will be built and no evidence that this will not be built so since 50% is the average percentage number and I don't see any evidence to change it I let it be as it is, 50%

As to spyguy's reasons, here is what I think:

1) I agree with you that the economy isn't that good but then again it apparently isn't that bad as to stop NYC from growth so why should it stop Chicago? In NYC there are 10 proposed supertalls (including 2WTC and 3WTC which will go on hold without a tenant) so why should Chicago have 0 of them?
2) Fair enough, though that might change in the future with the economy getting healthier. I don't think that the developer would propose something only for fun. I trust him that there is a chance that this might become a financial success.
3) You make it sound as if he would be some sort of Bob Lazar but he isn't, just because some of his projects in the past might have failed doesn't mean that this one has to fail as well.
4) Fair enough, though it is open to speculation.
5) Why should it be a problem? There are NIMBYies all arround the states yet it doesn't stop huge projects from rising. NYC has no problem tearing down old buildings just to make space for new supertalls so why should Chicago have a problem with it?

All of the responses above are just my opinion which might be wrong so I'm open to suggestions
Exactly. There are no tenants for this much office space in Chicago! This building will have probably 2 million sf of office space if not more. What company in the area, or nationally, or internationally, is willing to pay top dollar for a huge block of space in Chicago right now? I've asked this before and haven't gotten a response. There are smaller office buildings that will likely resume/start this year, but this is ambitious even pre-2008.

And 1 WTC is being built by the Port Authority ChiSkyline, a joint government agency between the City of NY, State of NY, and State of NJ, it's not being built with private money. Totally different. But it's 2/3 occupied fyi. And WTC 2 and 3 up to this point are being funded by 911 insurance money and government funding, again totally different.

And to address your number 1, saying that because NY has so many super tall proposals therefore Chicago should have one as well is ridiculous. They're entirely different economies, with entirely different needs and basic geography. Elaborating any further on this will inevitably end up as a city vs city which I don't want, but its apples and oranges.

Context is very important. Spyguy and Jay, you two make good points.
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Old February 5th, 2012, 12:19 AM   #602
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I think you overestimate the size of the office part of this complex. Here, take a look at this:



Only 40% of the main tower is office space. 20% is residential and 40% is hotel then two of the smaller buildings are residential and two are hotel. In my opinion it is probable that short term profit from the office space is unimportant just like in the case of the Hudson Yards in NYC. Also I'll like to note that the Hudson Yards' office space percentage is a lot higher than that of this complex and if there they have no problems focusing in short term profit only on the residential, hotel and retail part then I don't see why it would be different in this case. Also it is important to note that the hotel and residential market in the US is in an incredible boom as witnessed by the huge ammount of residential supertalls being built and planned in NYC. Yes, this is not NYC, but then again in this tower rich people could live in the highest penthouses in the world additionaly in a developed country and trust me, that is very attractive for people even though it's Chicago and not NYC

Also, I'd like to point out that the market is a fluid thing, it rises and falls and often in history a gigantic landmark tower started huge economical development in the area arround it. One could say that a landmark tower can "make"the market better. This has happened with for example the old WTC in NYC or the Burj Khalifa in Dubai
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Old February 5th, 2012, 02:53 AM   #603
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I checked, it's 2 million square of office space. It may well be that the office space is unimportant to the developer in way of turning a profit, however there is no indication that that is the case. Where as in the case of the Hudson Yards, the developer has said publicly they're not concerned about profiting on the office section.

Again you're making generalizations that are true to NY, but are not true to the whole country. The hotel sector in NY is booming because of a weak dollar, safe city, and general convenient direct flight from anywhere in Europe to NY, where as Chicago just because it's more inland hasn't enjoyed that surge. I recall an article that I posted in here stating that Chicago businesses don't expect to be at pre-2008 tourism levels until 2013-2014, where as in NY, the city has set a new tourism record almost every year since about 1993, with a couple of exceptions around 9/11.

And again, I'm not sure as to the health of the ulter high end residential market in Chicago, but I think if it were doing very well we'd see more condo towers being built like the Spire.

The old WTC and the Burj Khalifa are interesting and incorrect to be compared, because both were built with government money. The WTC was built as part of a lower manhattan redevelopment plan that had started a decade prior with huge money and influence behind it, mostly the Rockefellers, so I don't think it's quite the same. Keep in mind the WTC basically sat empty for 20 years, and wasn't profitable until the 1990s. And I wouldn't agree that the Burj Khalifa has made the market at all, it's residential units are 8% occupied, and that's after 40% price reductions.

Whatever. Only time will tell, but I'm incredibly skeptical needless to say.
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Old February 5th, 2012, 05:39 AM   #604
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kinda curious.....but this whole project seems to be all apart of one large structure. could it be possible that this could have a total floor space larger than mecca abraj-al-bait?
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Old February 5th, 2012, 10:14 AM   #605
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no. I don't think it's anywhere close.
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Old February 5th, 2012, 01:22 PM   #606
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yankeesfan1000 View Post
I checked, it's 2 million square of office space. It may well be that the office space is unimportant to the developer in way of turning a profit, however there is no indication that that is the case. Where as in the case of the Hudson Yards, the developer has said publicly they're not concerned about profiting on the office section.

Again you're making generalizations that are true to NY, but are not true to the whole country. The hotel sector in NY is booming because of a weak dollar, safe city, and general convenient direct flight from anywhere in Europe to NY, where as Chicago just because it's more inland hasn't enjoyed that surge. I recall an article that I posted in here stating that Chicago businesses don't expect to be at pre-2008 tourism levels until 2013-2014, where as in NY, the city has set a new tourism record almost every year since about 1993, with a couple of exceptions around 9/11.

And again, I'm not sure as to the health of the ulter high end residential market in Chicago, but I think if it were doing very well we'd see more condo towers being built like the Spire.

The old WTC and the Burj Khalifa are interesting and incorrect to be compared, because both were built with government money. The WTC was built as part of a lower manhattan redevelopment plan that had started a decade prior with huge money and influence behind it, mostly the Rockefellers, so I don't think it's quite the same. Keep in mind the WTC basically sat empty for 20 years, and wasn't profitable until the 1990s. And I wouldn't agree that the Burj Khalifa has made the market at all, it's residential units are 8% occupied, and that's after 40% price reductions.

Whatever. Only time will tell, but I'm incredibly skeptical needless to say.
With overestimating the office space part I meant it's importance not it's size so I believe you that it's 2 million sqf and I apologize if I wasn't clear enough in my last post

As to the market in Chicago being different than NYC that might be, but since Chicago is a huge and important city and is near NYC I believe that if it would get such attractive residential and hotel space as what this complex offers rich people could very well turn their attention from NYC to Chicago since it shares the weak dollar and safety with NYC

One thing I would like to add is that 3 and a half billion, while being a lot, is still not impossible to get. I believe that the Hudson Yards in NYC won't be that much cheaper than this considering their huge size
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Old February 5th, 2012, 02:04 PM   #607
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3.5 billion dollars not hard to get? are you out of your mind? This developer isn't even legit and you think he could get 3.5 billion in financing?
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Old February 5th, 2012, 03:04 PM   #608
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I never said that it is not hard to get, I only said that it is not impossible to get and that is a big difference. Of course it is hard but not impossible
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Old February 5th, 2012, 05:50 PM   #609
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With overestimating the office space part I meant it's importance not it's size so I believe you that it's 2 million sqf and I apologize if I wasn't clear enough in my last post

As to the market in Chicago being different than NYC that might be, but since Chicago is a huge and important city and is near NYC I believe that if it would get such attractive residential and hotel space as what this complex offers rich people could very well turn their attention from NYC to Chicago since it shares the weak dollar and safety with NYC

One thing I would like to add is that 3 and a half billion, while being a lot, is still not impossible to get. I believe that the Hudson Yards in NYC won't be that much cheaper than this considering their huge size
I understood your point about the importance of the office space, but as I said, there's no indication that the developer is willing to simply break even on the office space and seek profits elsewhere.

As for the bolded part, NY and Chicago are 800 miles apart, and their hotel and residential markets are hugely different, they not might be different, they are different. Again, you may believe that the rich will shift their attention from NY to Chicago, but there is zero evidence of that happening even with the low supply in NY. If there is, then post an article. You're twisting reality and just simply making stuff up at this point.

Your point on the Hudson Yards is riddled with the same flaw in logic. It's that if New York is doing something, then therefore Chicago must be able to do the same, completing ignoring each individual market and its particular needs. Not on a national scale, but civic. Elaborating on this will likely lead to a city v city debate, which no one wants, but each cities real estate markets are incredibly different.

The same line of thinking can be applied to Philly, which is much closer to NY than Chicago, but isn't as large economically when measured by GDP. So using your line of logic, because NY is building supertalls and Philadelphia is close to NY and also a huge and important city why can't Philly?
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Old February 5th, 2012, 07:31 PM   #610
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Your explanation of what evidence there is is quite, well, doublebladed. You say that there is no evidence that the developer wants to only break even with the office space, fair enough, but there is no evidence that he doesn't. You say that there is no evidence of rich people shifting their eyes to Chicago, fair enough, but there is no evidence of them staying focused on NYC. At the end we can sumarize it into saying that there is no evidence of a favourable enviroment for this project and no evidence of an unfavourable enviroment for this project, which is why I said a page ago that I see it's chances at 50%. I never said that this proposal will become reality, I only said that it has a realistic chance (50%) to become reality and that is a huge difference

As to why Philly can't and Chicago can? I'm not Muad'Dib, I can't tell you the future so I don't know for surev what will and what will not be built. I can only speculate by reflecting upon the past and that is far more favourable to Chicago than to Philly. Right now Chicago is the no.1 US city for skyscrapers. If we would make a top 10 of the tallest skyscrapers in the US including skyscrapers under construction in NYC which have a clear future (so excluding 2WTC and 3WTC) Chicago would have places 1, 4, 5, 6, NYC would have places 2, 3, 8 and Philly would have none. This is why I think that Philly can't have such a project but Chicago can
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Old February 5th, 2012, 09:41 PM   #611
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I am honestly having a hard time believing that someone just presented that as a serious argument, even for the internet it's pretty absurd. Just because something can't be disproven, does not give it any sort of credence or credibility. That's like saying, there is no evidence that a giant 250 foot tall invisible ant who lives on the surface of Mars who runs around all day playing croquet while wearing a top hat does exist, but there is also no evidence saying outright that the ant, lets call him Leonard, does not exist. Following your line of reasoning you would therefore give that a 50-50 chance of being a reality.

And yes there is evidence that they are staying focused on NY. Demand for high-end NYC condo rival's market peak. Here's another link, this about Chi, condo market there is not doing so hot.

"there is no evidence of a favourable enviroment for this project and no evidence of an unfavourable enviroment for this project" Unemployment is in the mid 8%s, real unemployment is at least 15.5%, the Eurozone calamity, China is slowing, credit markets are still very tight, etc. I just can't understand how anyone who has read the newspaper or watched the news for a single second at any one point in time over the last 3 and a half years could say something like this.

And you completely ignored the point I made about Chicago and Philadelphia, but I don't think you understood the point I was making.
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Old February 5th, 2012, 10:32 PM   #612
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I am honestly having a hard time believing that someone just presented that as a serious argument, even for the internet it's pretty absurd. Just because something can't be disproven, does not give it any sort of credence or credibility. That's like saying, there is no evidence that a giant 250 foot tall invisible ant who lives on the surface of Mars who runs around all day playing croquet while wearing a top hat does exist, but there is also no evidence saying outright that the ant, lets call him Leonard, does not exist. Following your line of reasoning you would therefore give that a 50-50 chance of being a reality.

And yes there is evidence that they are staying focused on NY. Demand for high-end NYC condo rival's market peak. Here's anotherlink, this about Chi, condo market there is not doing so hot.

"there is no evidence of a favourable enviroment for this project and no evidence of an unfavourable enviroment for this project" Unemployment is in the mid 8%s, real unemployment is at least 15.5%, the Eurozone calamity, China is slowing, credit markets are still very tight, etc. I just can't understand how anyone who has read the newspaper or watched the news for a single second at any one point in time over the last 3 and a half years could say something like this.

And you completely ignored the point I made about Chicago and Philadelphia, but I don't think you understood the point I was making.
I agree with the bold part but if there's no facts that it's not going to happen or is going to happen then it remains a mystery (50/50 chance)

As you said yourself imma let time tell.. Were all going to end up finding out will it or will it not happen.
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Old February 5th, 2012, 10:37 PM   #613
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Originally Posted by yankeesfan1000 View Post
That's like saying, there is no evidence that a giant 250 foot tall invisible ant who lives on the surface of Mars who runs around all day playing croquet while wearing a top hat does exist, but there is also no evidence saying outright that the ant, lets call him Leonard, does not exist. Following your line of reasoning you would therefore give that a 50-50 chance of being a reality.

haha good analogy and yes very true.


Quote:
Right now Chicago is the no.1 US city for skyscrapers
It is? hmm.. you should check out the SSP diagrams.
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Old February 5th, 2012, 11:05 PM   #614
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I am honestly having a hard time believing that someone just presented that as a serious argument, even for the internet it's pretty absurd. Just because something can't be disproven, does not give it any sort of credence or credibility. That's like saying, there is no evidence that a giant 250 foot tall invisible ant who lives on the surface of Mars who runs around all day playing croquet while wearing a top hat does exist, but there is also no evidence saying outright that the ant, lets call him Leonard, does not exist. Following your line of reasoning you would therefore give that a 50-50 chance of being a reality.

And yes there is evidence that they are staying focused on NY. Demand for high-end NYC condo rival's market peak. Here's another link, this about Chi, condo market there is not doing so hot.

"there is no evidence of a favourable enviroment for this project and no evidence of an unfavourable enviroment for this project" Unemployment is in the mid 8%s, real unemployment is at least 15.5%, the Eurozone calamity, China is slowing, credit markets are still very tight, etc. I just can't understand how anyone who has read the newspaper or watched the news for a single second at any one point in time over the last 3 and a half years could say something like this.

And you completely ignored the point I made about Chicago and Philadelphia, but I don't think you understood the point I was making.
I on the other hand have trouble believing that you have truly read what I wrote. Your mega ant is pure nonsense so I would never give it a 50% chance just as I would never give 50% to that sudan tower or that azerbaijan tower since they all are nonsense. This project however is realistic and reasonable therefore in the absence of any evidence against it it deserves a 50% chance. And here I come to my doubts about whether you truly read my comments because you make it sound as if I would say this will be built, but I have never said that, in fact I have said that I have never said that in my previous post however you completely ignored it

And now to your "evidence", there is no evidence that the residential market will be focused on NYC once this get's under construction. The article proves that it is focused on it now, nothing more and nothing less. Also, your captain obvious approach to current economical situation is complete speculation. You make it appear as if the US would be in a financial crysis, which is not true cause if they would not only Chicago would be affected but NYC too, yet NYC is blossoming so I ask you again, where is the evidence for your points? Also, it should be noted that this complex would create countless jobs, which would only benefit the employment situation

Also, I'd like to add that even a financial crysis doesn't have to mean bad enviroment for skyscraper construction The 5 tallest buildings in the world prior to 1969 were all made during the great economical crysis in the 1930s
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Last edited by Kanto; February 5th, 2012 at 11:17 PM.
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Old February 6th, 2012, 12:25 AM   #615
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But why is the Leonard the mega ant pure nonsense in your mind? I'm just using your method. Like you said with this project, there is nothing saying it will get built, nothing saying it won't get built. There is nothing saying Leonard does exist, and nothing saying he doesn't exist. What's the difference?

And you say, "This project however is realistic and reasonable therefore in the absence of any evidence against it it deserves a 50% chance," what makes this project realistic and/or reasonable? And use numbers, data, statistics, don't just say like you have, well since NY is building tall Chicago can too, or, I think this will attract investment in the form of wealthy people buying apartments here and companies moving here. And if you refer to one of those hilariously vague answers, then what makes this project more realistic than the Sudan Tower or the Azerbaijain Tower, which you yourself say are fantasy? What's the difference if you're justification and valuation method is the, build it and they'll come between this and the Sudan and Azerbaijain towers?

Chicago has never been the hub of foreign investment that NY has. Never has, and probably never will. That's why foreign wealth is so heavily interested in buying ultra high end real estate in NY and isn't in Chicago. That's just the way it is.

"You make it appear as if the US would be in a financial crysis, which is not true cause if they would not only Chicago would be affected but NYC too, yet NYC is blossoming so I ask you again, where is the evidence for your points? Also, it should be noted that this complex would create countless jobs, which would only benefit the employment situation"

I hope that English isn't your first language, because something is being lost here. But again, NY is blossoming because it is more of a hub for international investors than Chicago, and the economy is more diverse. NY is home to many more companies and firms that are not based in the US, which haven't had the same exposure to the meltdown of the US housing market. Also, regardless of your feeling on the bailouts, large financial institutions were the main benefactors, most of whom are headquartered in NY, or at least have enormous presences in NY.

"... so I ask you again, where is the evidence for your points?" - What points?
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Old February 6th, 2012, 01:02 AM   #616
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Quote:
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With overestimating the office space part I meant it's importance not it's size so I believe you that it's 2 million sqf and I apologize if I wasn't clear enough in my last post

As to the market in Chicago being different than NYC that might be, but since Chicago is a huge and important city and is near NYC I believe that if it would get such attractive residential and hotel space as what this complex offers rich people could very well turn their attention from NYC to Chicago since it shares the weak dollar and safety with NYC

One thing I would like to add is that 3 and a half billion, while being a lot, is still not impossible to get. I believe that the Hudson Yards in NYC won't be that much cheaper than this considering their huge size
I don't think so. Chicago doesn't have the same international cachet as NYC or LA/SFO, Miami which will make it a harder sell. That is why I think your logic is a bit faulty. The demand is probably not very good for very expensive condos in Chicago right now.

I agree with the post above...unless Chicago can raise its image as a destination for foreign visitors, it will have a hard time becoming a coveted locale for these people IMO.

Last edited by aquablue; February 6th, 2012 at 08:25 AM.
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Old February 6th, 2012, 04:39 PM   #617
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/l...,1354245.story

Commuters continue to breathe diesel exhaust at Chicago's Union Station
Nagging maintenance issues at the Old Post Office that straddles the southbound tracks add to problem

By Michael Hawthorne, Chicago Tribune reporter

February 6, 2012
Thousands of commuters continue to breathe high levels of lung-damaging diesel exhaust at Chicago's Union Station, in part because of nagging maintenance problems at the Old Post Office that straddles the southbound tracks.

Testing by Amtrak has determined that ventilation fans at the shuttered post office building repeatedly malfunction. At times, the system of 11 ducts and fans has operated at just 53 percent of its design capacity, according to a letter to U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin from Joseph Boardman, Amtrak's president and chief executive.

On Monday, Durbin, Amtrak officials and local transit executives will threaten legal action to force Bill Davies, the British developer who bought the former post office building in 2009, to follow through on promises to fix the problem.

City officials already have cited Davies' International Property Developers with two violations of Chicago building codes related to the ventilation system.............

Legal agreements require the owners of skyscrapers built above the Union Station tracks to maintain ventilation ducts and fans that suck diesel fumes out of cramped tunnels shared by Amtrak and Metra trains. But commuters and employee unions have complained for years about thick blue clouds of locomotive exhaust that linger above the tracks.

Davies, a Liverpool-based developer who last year proposed turning the post office building into an office tower and shopping mall, is represented locally by Daley & George, the law firm of former Mayor Richard Daley's brother Michael............

Amtrak, Metra and city officials have singled out the building as a significant hurdle in their efforts to improve air quality for train passengers.............
....
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Old February 7th, 2012, 11:28 AM   #618
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Finally, something regarding this tower.
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Old February 7th, 2012, 03:32 PM   #619
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....
If you dont mind me asking about the article you posted, can you or anybody tell me whats happening or whats in meaning?
Because to me it sounds like good news

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Old February 8th, 2012, 03:28 PM   #620
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If you dont mind me asking about the article you posted, can you or anybody tell me whats happening or whats in meaning?
Because to me it sounds like good news
It sounds like good news to me too. As building this new complex will include fixing bad things like mentioned.

Plus, if it was so unlikely to be built, why would it keep getting mentioned in articles?
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