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Old March 12th, 2014, 10:24 PM   #1021
noir-dresses
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Filip View Post
Isn't BEG more connected than ZAG?
The question was why isn't BEG connected to ZAG, so BEG is not part of my stat, it's the other former capitals.
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Old March 13th, 2014, 06:17 PM   #1022
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Quote:
Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
Couple of potential reasons,

-Air Serbia hasn't come around to launch the city yet

-ZAG is only a two and half/three hour drive away

-ZAG is by far connected than all the other former Yugoslav cities so not necessary

-Most Croatian's wont fly Air Serbia just out of principle, Balkan mentality

-Air Darwin/Etihad Regional was going to launch flights to ZAG, but they cancelled a few weeks ago
What a reason was for the cancellation of BEG - ZAG in Air Darwin/Etihad Regional? Bad sales?

On the web site http://exyuaviation.blogspot.com/ somebody wrote that JU is lacking ATRs to even fly their existing routes. They can't take on another new destination right now. Is this right?

But it's very strange for me, that smaller cities than Zagreb like Skopje, Sarajevo (Skopje by the highway too) are connected with a Belgrade, but Zagreb not. And Sarajevo, Skopje aren't very far from Belgrad too.

But Zagreb with a bigger catchment area and with а richer population than in Skopje and Sarajevo but without a connection with Belgrad. It's very strange for me.
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Old March 13th, 2014, 06:35 PM   #1023
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Serbia has developed stronger economical and political ties elsewhere. That's how I see it.
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Old March 13th, 2014, 06:41 PM   #1024
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Westgermany View Post

But Zagreb with a bigger catchment area and with а richer population than in Skopje and Sarajevo but without a connection with Belgrad. It's very strange for me.
JU serves LJU and BNX, and that's the catchment area already being covered. JU restarted those two not long ago. That sums it up.
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Old March 13th, 2014, 09:04 PM   #1025
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YU-AMC View Post
JU serves LJU and BNX, and that's the catchment area already being covered. JU restarted those two not long ago. That sums it up.
I can understan better when LJU and BNX are in the catchment area of Zagreb.

Exept this Zagreb is connected with SJJ and SKP with not so big cities but not with BEG. I really can't understand this situation.

Moscow for example is connected with all former capitals of former Soviet republics. Absolutely with all, even with Tbilisi, but before 6 years it was a war between Russia and Georgia. Yes, Moscow is a very big city, not like Belgrade. But BEG - ZAG is a puzzle for me.
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Old March 13th, 2014, 10:41 PM   #1026
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Westgermany View Post
But BEG - ZAG is a puzzle for me.
Rivalry
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Old March 14th, 2014, 04:25 AM   #1027
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skyscraperus View Post
Rivalry
I don't think so. Zagreb and BEG are 3 hours apart by car/bus, so most Origin/Destination passengers would rather drive. Until recently, neither airport had a great advantage against the other in the terms of network. JU could not attract enough transit passengers to fill a plane to Zagreb. On the other hand, Croatia Airlines is rather expensive, and most passengers from Belgrade would rather fly from Budapest on low cost carriers.

Now everything has changed. Croatia Airlines is much less active and offers fewer flights and destinations, and Air Serbia is much more active and offers many more flights and destinations. There might be enough transit passengers to make it worth it for Air Serbia to send an ATR 72, but unfortunately Air Serbia already has very high utilization with their ATRs since they added many new ATR destinations (Varna, Sofia, Ljubljana, Banja Luka, etc). There isn't any ATR that is free to fly to Zagreb.
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Old March 14th, 2014, 06:24 AM   #1028
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According to via-michelin it takes about 4 hours driving time from city centre to city centre, not including border wait time, which could be anywhere from 10 mins to 30m or longer. Assuming you drive the legal limit. Plus it will cost about €60 in petrol and tolls.
But it is of course convenient to have an automobile during your visit to either city.

The factors hindering an air link are; lack of available airplane, and a lack of O&D passengers willing to fly this relatively short distance. There is of course a market and interest in this route but that would come in the form of transit passengers. I would estimate that 70% of each flight of the ZAG-BEG leg would be transiting passengers. Less so on the BEG-ZAG leg.

So I would think that in the not so distant future Air Serbia will launch BEG-ZAG route. There are business, family, cultural, and tourist potential for this route. As well as other cities in the Balkans and beyond.
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Old March 14th, 2014, 12:08 PM   #1029
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aleksandar_s View Post
but unfortunately Air Serbia already has very high utilization with their ATRs since they added many new ATR destinations (Varna, Sofia, Ljubljana, Banja Luka, etc). There isn't any ATR that is free to fly to Zagreb.
Air Serbia for example, could launch BEG - ZAG instead BEG - VAR or BEG - SOF.

What will Air Serbia do in Varna on next winter? Yes, may be there is a place for JU in Varna after bancrupcy of Malev, but will be this route more successful than BEG - ZAG?
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Old March 14th, 2014, 06:05 PM   #1030
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Alexandar already explained it nicely....
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Old March 14th, 2014, 06:19 PM   #1031
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From Zagreb air strike on 7 October 1991 serbian airplanes are not welcome in Crotia.
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Old March 14th, 2014, 07:02 PM   #1032
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skyscraperus View Post
From Zagreb air strike on 7 October 1991 serbian airplanes are not welcome in Crotia.
Absolutely not true. JAT has operated in Croatia for a few years now, and Air Serbia will operate in Croatia this summer with flights to Dubrovnik and Split. I guarantee that Air Serbia would be welcomed to Zagreb just like Croatia Airlines is welcome in Beograd.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Westgermany View Post
Air Serbia for example, could launch BEG - ZAG instead BEG - VAR or BEG - SOF.

What will Air Serbia do in Varna on next winter? Yes, may be there is a place for JU in Varna after bancrupcy of Malev, but will be this route more successful than BEG - ZAG?
I don't have any evidence for this, but I think it is possible that Air Serbia doesn't want to step on Lufthansa's toes too early. The Balkans, especially Croatia and Slovenia is Star Alliance territory. There is no doubt that Lufthansa noticed when Air Serbia forced Adria to suspend the LJU-BEG route. Air Serbia is still insignificant compared to Lufthansa, Turkish, Austrian, and Swiss, but there is not doubt that those carriers notice the rapid expansion of Air Serbia.

Turkish seems to be the most alarmed since they practically kicked Air Serbia out of IST since they offered terrible slots, plus they announced Varna after Air Serbia announced it.

Last edited by aleksandar_s; March 14th, 2014 at 07:50 PM.
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Old March 14th, 2014, 08:11 PM   #1033
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Actally Air Serbia will serve Split which is the busiest airport in the region during high season in the summer. Split has more traffic than Zagreb and Belgrade.
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Old March 14th, 2014, 09:00 PM   #1034
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Looks like airliners.net is down... TK bumped BEG a few days ago with a A330-300.

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Old March 14th, 2014, 09:02 PM   #1035
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Quote:
Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
Actally Air Serbia will serve Split which is the busiest airport in the region during high season in the summer. Split has more traffic than Zagreb and Belgrade.
Split is not busier than Belgrade, even during the summer. Both airports are busiest during August. Split got about 345.000 last year, but Beograd got 440.000. During the Summer, Beograd averages around 100.000 more passengers per month than Split. Split still has some very impressive numbers, even though Belgrade is busier.

http://www.split-airport.hr/index.ph...id=115&lang=en

http://beg.aero/about_us/traffic_fig...hive.1015.html

Quote:
Originally Posted by YU-AMC View Post
Looks like airliners.net is down... TK bumped BEG a few days ago with a A330-300.
Here is another one, where the A330 is landing. Too bad they sent it because of cargo, and not because there was extra passengers.


Image source: Miodrag Milojevic on "Aerodrom Beograd Nikola Tesla- ljubitelji aerodroma" facebook page

Last edited by aleksandar_s; March 14th, 2014 at 09:11 PM.
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Old March 14th, 2014, 09:22 PM   #1036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aleksandar_s View Post
Here is another one, where the A330 is landing. Too bad they sent it because of cargo, and not because there was extra passengers.
That's what I had in mind when I saw it parked close to the cargo facility.... They have three daily flights on some days, and to be sending an A330 would be unrealistic. The guys from Emirates would respond right away, but I am sure they are keeping an eye on EY/QR's loads in BEG.

Btw good picture! Looks like BEG is starting to pick up with their movement numbers...
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Old March 14th, 2014, 09:44 PM   #1037
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Movements are increasing like never before. According to the preliminary summer schedule posted on exyuaviation.blogspot.com, Air Serbia will operate 343 flights per week during the summer. That is 49 flights per day (~14 additional flights per day compared to 2013). In addition to JU's expansion, we will also see some new routes by TAP Portugal, Etihad Regional, plus easyJet is starting Rome. It will be a very busy summer this year. I forecast that AUG will be 500.000+ passengers.
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Old March 14th, 2014, 09:52 PM   #1038
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Do you think BEG will finish 2014 with around 60 000 movements per year? I think if they are going to be striving towards 100 000 in near future, in that case, the second runway could be on the cards....
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Old March 14th, 2014, 10:01 PM   #1039
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Since BEG got 46.828 movements last year, I think that 60.000 is possible this year since it would only require an increase of about 28%, and Jan and Feb movements were up 34% and 36%, respectively.

Here is a text file I created to keep track of new route launches so far this year. I keep it updated to the best of my knowledge:

2014 New Routes and Carriers at BEG

Launch Date/ City/ Carrier/ Flights/ Capacity per flight

Jan 24/ Geneva/ easyJet/ 2 weekly A319/ 156

Mar 30/ Larnaca/ Wizz Air/ 2 weekly A320/ 180

Mar 30/ Budapest/ Air Serbia/ 7 weekly ATR72/ 66

Mar 30/ Sofia / Air Serbia/ 7 weekly ATR72/ 66

Mar 30/ Varna/ Air Serbia/ 7 weekly ATR72/ 66

Mar 31/ Rome/ easyJet/ 3 weekly A319/ 156

May 1/ Geneva/ Etihad Regional/ 3 weekly Saab2000/ 50

May 29/ Kiev/ Air Serbia/ 7 weekly A319/ 128

May 29/ Warsaw/ Air Serbia/ 7 weekly ATR72/ 66

Jun 1/ Beirut/ Air Serbia/ 7 weekly A319/ 128

June 20-Sept 15/ Barcelona/ Vueling/ 3 Weekly A320/ 180
(seasonal)

July 2/ Lisbon/ TAP Portugal/ 3 Weekly A319/ 132


In addition, Air Serbia is increasing frequency across the entire network. So far this year we lost Adria's daily CRJ-200, but this was because Air Serbia beat them out when they launched daily flights to Ljubljana with the ATR 72.

Last edited by aleksandar_s; March 14th, 2014 at 10:06 PM.
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Old March 14th, 2014, 10:03 PM   #1040
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Looking good!
I think 60 000 is very realistic in terms of the movements.
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