Largest cities in the USA 2030.

[dmoor82]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

No. OKC overperformed the 2009 estimates. There was no way in hell that OKC added more than 20k in one year. OKC will probably reach 600k by 2012 to 2013 or so, and then probably 650k by 2020 and maybe 725k by 2030 if trends keep up. Tulsa will also be around 405k by 2020 and maybe 425k by 2030 if we don't keep shitting up our future (which is the likely outcome).

The OKC CSA metro will probably be 1,500,000 by 2020 and then 1,650,000 by 2030 if growth keeps up. If OKC becomes the next Nashville or Charlotte, then 2,000,000 might be probable. Again, i'd bank on 725k in 2030 and 1,650,000 metro in 2030

650k by 2020?WOW, that is lowballing out the ass!Incase you didnt know it OKC is outgrowing and outpacing it's suburbs!

[Manitopiaaa]

OKC has incredibly weak suburbs and is 607 sq.mi. And? OKC gained abbut 75k in the past ten years. If we assume that OKC gains 75k this decade that would be 655k. My guess seems normal. Overestimating your city is expected in this thread. Everyone is always incredibly rosy about their city. What is your evidence that OKC will defy expectations this coming decade? The Devon Tower? Bricktown? Downtown development and MAPS III is not indicative of a population super-boom like you seem to suggest.

[dmoor82]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

OKC has incredibly weak suburbs and is 607 sq.mi. And? OKC gained abbut 75k in the past ten years. If we assume that OKC gains 75k this decade that would be 655k. My guess seems normal. Overestimating your city is expected in this thread. Everyone is always incredibly rosy about their city. What is your evidence that OKC will defy expectations this coming decade? The Devon Tower? Bricktown? Downtown development and MAPS III is not indicative of a population super-boom like you seem to suggest.

Well,atleast we know Tulsa will keep on losing population!I think OKC will gain 100k+ in this decade and might be over 680k IMO!Of that 75k gained last decade about half was from 07'-10',thats half of OKC's gains in just 3 years,now that is what I am basing my estimates on!ofcourse we'll just have to wait and see!

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by dmoor82

Well,atleast we know Tulsa will keep on losing population!I think OKC will gain 100k+ in this decade and might be over 680k IMO!Of that 75k gained last decade about half was from 07'-10',thats half of OKC's gains in just 3 years,now that is what I am basing my estimates on!ofcourse we'll just have to wait and see!

atleast we know

No, you don't know. That trite, vapid comment does nothing but stoke a city v. city debate. OKC will grow but not as much as you hope. As I've mentioned, it's kinda cute that you love your city. You can be entitled to your own estimate, but I disagree based on trends. As for Tulsa never growing again, I think that's hard to predict given the fact that we've grown every year since 2005. I would rant about Tulsa being 1/3 the size and surrounded by suburbs but this is neither the place nor the time.

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by dmoor82

While OKC is known as a suburban city,I can tell you first hand as a resident, that OKC has invested heavily in it's core and taken great strides in turning this city into a sustainable city!But in all reality,it will take 2-3 decades of intense core build up in OKC's core to even combat the over bearable sprawl that OKC currently has!

Agreed.

[WeimieLvr]

Originally Posted by dmoor82

Well,atleast we know Tulsa will keep on losing population!I think OKC will gain 100k+ in this decade and might be over 680k IMO!Of that 75k gained last decade about half was from 07'-10',thats half of OKC's gains in just 3 years,now that is what I am basing my estimates on!ofcourse we'll just have to wait and see!

Most American cities are not currently growing at the pace they 5-10 years ago. People don't have the means to move around the country like they once did, so naturally the population growth of the most popular relo cities has tapered off. That doesn't mean it won't pick back up again, but you can't rely on past numbers to predict future growth.

It does look like OKC has made some major investments in urban development over the past decade. I was really impressed with some of what I saw going on there.

[dmoor82]

Originally Posted by WeimieLvr

Most American cities are not currently growing at the pace they 5-10 years ago. People don't have the means to move around the country like they once did, so naturally the population growth of the most popular relo cities has tapered off. That doesn't mean it won't pick back up again, but you can't rely on past numbers to predict future growth.

It does look like OKC has made some major investments in urban development over the past decade. I was really impressed with some of what I saw going on there.

Agreed,but with recent trends and population gains in OKC including this year,why would that change?IMHO,I think OKC will still be just a Medium sized city all the way up to 2050?

[dmoor82]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

No, you don't know. That trite, vapid comment does nothing but stoke a city v. city debate. OKC will grow but not as much as you hope. As I've mentioned, it's kinda cute that you love your city. You can be entitled to your own estimate, but I disagree based on trends. As for Tulsa never growing again, I think that's hard to predict given the fact that we've grown every year since 2005. I would rant about Tulsa being 1/3 the size and surrounded by suburbs but this is neither the place nor the time.

Well,You are correct,Tulsa has gained 9k from 2005 to 2010,but still under it's 2000 Census population http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0763098.html Tulsa has alot of infil and downtown construction going on right now and frankly it's residents have alot to be proud of!IMO,I still think you are lowballing OKC's future pop. gains,but like I said this is just my opinion!Also,it's nice to be thought of as Cute

[Middle-Island]

Originally Posted by Bay2Bay

What about Hooterville and Pixley?

They may in fact get absorbed into the 'Petticoat Junction micropolitan area'. But that's a big wait and see.

[dima4444]

[Dralcoffin]

To put my two cents in:

2030 Cities, with my best guess for populations:

1. New York, 8.7 million
2. Los Angeles, 4.8 million
3. Chicago, 2.9 million
4. Houston, 2.7 million
5. Phoenix, 1.8 million
6. San Antonio, 1.7 million
7. Philadelphia, 1.6 million
8. San Diego, 1.5 million
9. Dallas, 1.2 million
10. San Jose, 1.0 million

11-15 (could be any order)
Austin, Fort Worth, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Columbus

(Bonus: Detroit will be about 500,000 and still plunging, and Washington, DC at about 700,000 and booming. St. Louis will be at 300,000 but gaining people again.)

I see Chicago densifying in the 2010s and 2020s, and thus adding a small amount of people, but enough to hold off a slowing, built-out Houston until about 2040 or so. Phoenix is never going to recapture the breakneck pace of growth from before the housing bust, and will be passed by San Antonio by 2040.

[imagineer100]

I'd like to see Hartford up there, but..,not ever gonna happen.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by Dralcoffin

To put my two cents in:

2030 Cities, with my best guess for populations:

1. New York, 8.7 million
2. Los Angeles, 4.8 million
3. Chicago, 2.9 million
4. Houston, 2.7 million

It's harder to gage population trends 20 years out for municipalities than it is for metro areas, but based on the most recent census, there seems to have been a pattern shift. NYC and L.A may have peaked, and actually, I wouldn't at all be surprised if L.A. and NYC came down in population a bit by 2030.

Chicago is in a free fall (again), and Houston had all the room in the world to add to its population, so they will grow for quite a while.

1. New York, 8.2million
2. Los Angeles, 4 million
3. Houston, 2.6 million
3. Chicago, 2.4million
4. Houston, 2.7 million

I see Chicago densifying in the 2010s and 2020s, and thus adding a small amount of people.

No, not a chance. The areas that are densyfing are not large enough to offset the massive flight of African Americans from the West and especially South sides. At this rate by 2030, Chicago will have less than half the African American population it had in 2000. The Exodus of White ethnics from the Northwest and Southwest sides, has slowed, but has yet to be offset by incoming gentrification of White ethnic in the near downtown neighborhoods. most importantly, the one segment of the population that was booming, which was the catalyst of growth during the 1990's, Hispanics, has all of the sudden come to a screeching halt. Ironically, The downturn in the economy back in 2008 had actually slowed the population exodus.


The suburbs which once stole only the White ethnics have now enticed all other groups looking for affordable housing, jobs, better schools, and safer communities. There is just too much open space, outside Chicago that is begging for development. I guess the good news is that the Chicago metro region will continue to see modest growth for the foreseeable.

[Nexis]

My Northeastern Megapolis Predictions

New York City : 8.1 Million (2010) > 9.3 Million (2030)

Philadelphia : 1.5 Million (2010) > 2.0 Million (2030)

Baltimore : 620,961 (2010 > 680,000 (2030)

Boston : 617,594 (2010) > 670,000 (2030)

Washington DC : 601,723 (2010) > 730,000 (2030)

Virginia Beach : 437,994 (2010) > 520,000 (2030)

Newark : 277,140 (2010) > 310,600 (2030)

Jersey City : 247,597 (2010) > 340,000 (2030)

Norfolk : 242,803 (2010) > 290,000 (2030)

Chesapeake : 222,209 (2010) > 260,000 (2030)

Yonkers : 195,976 (2010) > 210,000 (2030)

Worcester : 181,045 (2010) > 230,000 (2030)

Providence : 178,042 (2010) > 240,000 (2030)

Springfield : 153,060 (2010) > 170,000 (2030)

Paterson : 146,189 (2010) > 175,000 (2030)

Bridgeport : 144,229 (2010) > 170,000 (2030)

Elizabeth : 124,969 (2010) > 160,000 (2030)

Hartford : 124,000 (2010) > 175,000 (2030)

New Haven : 129,000 (2010) > 180,000 (2030)

Allentown : 118,032 (2010) > 150,000 (2030)

Stamford : 117,082 (2010) > 160,000 (2030)

Waterbury : 110,366 (2010) > 120,000 (2030)

Manchester : 109,565 (2010) > 140,000 (2030)

Lowell : 106,519 (2010) > 120,000 (2030)

Cambridge : 105,162 (2010) > 135,000 (2030)

14.5 Million People currently live in Urban Cores or large Cities
17.1 Million people by 2030 will live in Urban Cores or Large Cities

[imagineer100]

Originally Posted by Nexis

My Northeastern Megapolis Predictions

Manchester : 109,565 (2010) > 140,000 (2030)

It this Manchester, New Hampshire or Manchester, Connecticut?

[FAAN]

Houston as the 2nd largest in the country, admirable, even LA will. I have seen on research that the U.S. will have around 390 million people at that time and a GDP of 28 trillion dollars. And Brazil is a developed and wealthy country with 215 million people and GDP of 12 trillion.And maybe you do not already have gone to Mars!?!

[Nexis]

Originally Posted by imagineer100

It this Manchester, New Hampshire or Manchester, Connecticut?

New Hampshire.

[DowntownIndianapolis]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

It's harder to gage population trends 20 years out for municipalities than it is for metro areas, but based on the most recent census, there seems to have been a pattern shift. NYC and L.A may have peaked, and actually, I wouldn't at all be surprised if L.A. and NYC came down in population a bit by 2030.

Chicago is in a free fall (again), and Houston had all the room in the world to add to its population, so they will grow for quite a while.

1. New York, 8.2million
2. Los Angeles, 4 million
3. Houston, 2.6 million
3. Chicago, 2.4million
4. Houston, 2.7 million



No, not a chance. The areas that are densyfing are not large enough to offset the massive flight of African Americans from the West and especially South sides. At this rate by 2030, Chicago will have less than half the African American population it had in 2000. The Exodus of White ethnics from the Northwest and Southwest sides, has slowed, but has yet to be offset by incoming gentrification of White ethnic in the near downtown neighborhoods. most importantly, the one segment of the population that was booming, which was the catalyst of growth during the 1990's, Hispanics, has all of the sudden come to a screeching halt. Ironically, The downturn in the economy back in 2008 had actually slowed the population exodus.


The suburbs which once stole only the White ethnics have now enticed all other groups looking for affordable housing, jobs, better schools, and safer communities. There is just too much open space, outside Chicago that is begging for development. I guess the good news is that the Chicago metro region will continue to see modest growth for the foreseeable.

Exactly.
hence why i predict the Fall of Chicago is starting.
Chicago will look like Detroit soon at this rate.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by DowntownIndianapolis

Exactly.
hence why i predict the Fall of Chicago is starting.
Chicago will look like Detroit soon at this rate.

You are kidding right? Detroit?

Happen to notice which populace is leaving the city of Chicago? THE POOR, not the wealthy. In fact that is exactly the reason why Chicago's population is dropping. Larger working class and poor families are headed to more affordable suburbs, but the influx of young urban professionals isn't large enough to offset the loss. Chicago's downtown in thriving, the Northside's population is pretty stable. It's the West and large parts of the Southsides that are loosing.

“The region is still gaining in terms of population, but it is varying in terms of where that population is centered,” said Matt Maloney, deputy chief of staff and a policy analyst at the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning. “We see population continuing to drift outward.”

The decline came as new condominium towers have risen along Chicago’s skyline. Those buildings often are filled by singles and retirement-age couples who no longer have children at home, resulting in smaller households than the families who move out of the city to find cheaper housing and jobs, Maloney said.

“We are seeing a rise in terms of median household income,” he said. “The city is very attractive to professionals.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...sus-shows.html

[CincyBearcats]

The biased Indianapolis post is a good laugh. First off, look up your facts. If you're talking about city populations, Columbus is growing faster than Indianapolis by quite a bit. Between 2000-2010 Indianapolis grew by 4.8% while Columbus grew by 10.6%. And it is also interesting that you would bash Jacksonville for its county merger when Indy itself takes up over 360 square miles. Let cities like St. Louis, Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Cincinnati take up that land area and they will have over a million people. So if that's the case, Indianapolis is not one of the biggest cities in the area. Compare the density of St. Louis or Cincinnati to Indianapolis. You do not get the dense feeling in Indy like you do in St. Louis or Cincy. The tight streets, blocks upon blocks of dense brick housing. So if Jacksonville is not bigger than Indianapolis, Indy is really not bigger than plenty of other cities out there.

And where are your facts to back up the fact that Indianapolis is going to "explode" after the superbowl? The city did a great job hosting it, but it's not the next D.C. when it comes to urban development. I was shocked outside of downtown Indianapolis, the only neighborhoods that I had a decent time in were Broad Ripple and Meridian Kessler (spelling).... way too bland for my tastes. Your "sister" city of Columbus (which I find Indy and Columbus to be very different) has awesome neighborhoods. Take note. I have been long-time lurker and finally joined when I read this thread. I believe you also post on City-Data, or at least I am assuming so by your ridiculous Indianapolis comments. The way you bash Chicago too, that's beyond hilarious. Chicago in your mind is the new Detroit?!?! And I assume that Indianapolis now rivals New York, London, and Melbourne in your eyes, right?

My list 2030:

New York
Los Angeles
Houston
Chicago
Phoenix
San Antonio
Philadelphia
Dallas
Austin
San Diego

11-20:

San Jose
Fort Worth
Jacksonville
Charlotte
Columbus
Indianapolis
San Francisco
Boston
Seattle
El Paso