American Demographics Thread

[Xusein]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

I meant proxy for the exurban growth. It seems New York area is absorbing those extra people that apparently went to Hartford and Philadelphia on the last decade. But that's just a guessing.

Can't think of it making much of a factor overall just yet, Hartford is still pretty far from NYC. The lack of a commuter rail link disadvantages it.

Also, the fastest growing areas in Greater Hartford between 2000-10 were in the eastern part of the metro which are even further from NYC.

NYC exurban growth is probably furthest on the edges of Litchfield and New Haven counties, which are both already in the NYC CSA. The only way that I can see Hartford being subsumed into the NYC CSA is if commuting percentages with places like New Haven increase, but I think that is unlikely.

[Xusein]

Anyway, I found the slow growth in Chicago pretty shocking. It is gaining a bit more people than Boston, which is a much smaller and historically slower growing metro. The other estimates for at least the top 20 look to be expected.

Originally Posted by Somnifor

Does anybody know when was the last time Chicago didn't lead Midwest metros in numerical growth? It would be kind of a big deal if we passed them in that.

I know it's not an accurate comparison, but Minnesota gained the most people out of any state in the Midwest in the last year if the estimates are correct, more than Illinois. It is actually feasible that the Twin Cities might have gained more people within Minnesota than the Chicago area did within Illinois itself.

[bayviews]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

Isn't it possible that unprecedent Oklahoma City's growth overshadows Tulsa? I've never been to the US, but the impression that I get from TV, films, etc., Tulsa is more well-known than its neighbour.

Actually OKC has been more of boomer than Tulsa.

OKC covers lot more area, a HUGE area in fact & its closer to the Sunbelt. Tulsa is much more compact & Midwestern.

Basically, Tulsa's tends toward being the Dallas of OK. While OKC is more like the Houston of OK.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by Xusein

Anyway, I found the slow growth in Chicago pretty shocking. It is gaining a bit more people than Boston, which is a much smaller and historically slower growing metro. The other estimates for at least the top 20 look to be expected.

Chicago's metro growth was way worse in the 1970's and 1980's

1950-1960=1,282,383
1960-1970=885,223
1970-1980=175,069
1980-1990= 120,907
1990-2000=926,858
2000-2010=373,766

Even if we just use this 1 year estimate, that would translate to adding 430,000 in 10 years, and will push the Chicago CSA to over 10 million before 2020. That's actually better than the 2000-2010 numeric growth of 373,766. Obviously not as good as the boom decade of the 1990's when the Chicago metro area added 926,858.

[Yuri S Andrade]

And finally the ones over 500,000:

Metropolitan Area --- Pop. 2011 --- Pop. 2010 --- Growth

1 - New York, NY-NJ-CT-PA --- 22,214,083 --- 22,085,649 --- 0.58% --- 128,434

2 - Los Angeles, CA --- 18,081,569 --- 17,877,006 --- 1.14% --- 204,563

3 - Chicago, IL --- 9,729,825 --- 9,686,021 --- 0.45% --- 43,804

4 - Washington-Baltimore, DC-MD-VA-WV --- 8,718,083 --- 8,572,971 --- 1.69% --- 145,112

5 - Boston, MA-RI-NH --- 7,601,061 --- 7,559,060 --- 0.56% --- 42,001

6 - San Francisco, CA --- 7,563,460 --- 7,468,390 --- 1.27% --- 95,070

7 - Dallas, TX --- 6,887,383 --- 6,731,317 --- 2.32% --- 156,066

8 - Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD --- 6,562,287 --- 6,533,683 --- 0.44% --- 28,604

9 - Houston, TX --- 6,191,434 --- 6,051,363 --- 2.31% --- 140,071

10 - Atlanta, GA-AL --- 5,712,148 --- 5,618,431 --- 1.67% --- 93,717

11 - Miami, FL --- 5,670,125 --- 5,564,635 --- 1.90% --- 105,490

12 - Detroit, MI --- 5,207,434 --- 5,218,852 --- -0.22% --- -11,418

13 - Seattle, WA --- 4,269,349 --- 4,199,312 --- 1.67% --- 70,037

14 - Phoenix, AZ --- 4,263,236 --- 4,192,887 --- 1.68% --- 70,349

15 - Minneapolis, MN-WI --- 3,655,558 --- 3,615,902 --- 1.10% --- 39,656

16 - Denver, CO --- 3,157,520 --- 3,090,874 --- 2.16% --- 66,646

17 - San Diego, CA --- 3,140,069 --- 3,095,313 --- 1.45% --- 44,756

18 - St. Louis, MO-IL --- 2,882,932 --- 2,878,255 --- 0.16% --- 4,677

19 - Cleveland, OH --- 2,871,084 --- 2,881,937 --- -0.38% --- -10,853

20 - Orlando, FL --- 2,861,296 --- 2,818,120 --- 1.53% --- 43,176

21 - Tampa, FL --- 2,824,724 --- 2,783,243 --- 1.49% --- 41,481

22 - Sacramento, CA-NV --- 2,489,230 --- 2,461,780 --- 1.12% --- 27,450

23 - Pittsburgh, PA --- 2,450,281 --- 2,447,393 --- 0.12% --- 2,888

24 - Charlotte, NC-SC --- 2,442,564 --- 2,402,623 --- 1.66% --- 39,941

25 - Portland, OR-WA --- 2,262,605 --- 2,226,009 --- 1.64% --- 36,596

26 - San Antonio, TX --- 2,194,927 --- 2,142,508 --- 2.45% --- 52,419

27 - Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN --- 2,179,965 --- 2,172,191 --- 0.36% --- 7,774

28 - Kansas City, MO-KS --- 2,122,908 --- 2,104,853 --- 0.86% --- 18,055

29 - Indianapolis, IN --- 2,103,574 --- 2,080,782 --- 1.10% --- 22,792

30 - Columbus, OH --- 2,093,185 --- 2,071,052 --- 1.07% --- 22,133

31 - Las Vegas, NV --- 2,013,326 --- 1,995,215 --- 0.91% --- 18,111

32 - Austin, TX --- 1,826,636 --- 1,759,039 --- 3.84% --- 67,597

33 - Raleigh, NC --- 1,795,750 --- 1,749,525 --- 2.64% --- 46,225

34 - Salt Lake City, UT --- 1,776,528 --- 1,744,886 --- 1.81% --- 31,642

35 - Milwaukee, WI --- 1,757,604 --- 1,751,316 --- 0.36% --- 6,288

36 - Nashville, TN --- 1,698,651 --- 1,670,890 --- 1.66% --- 27,761

37 - Norfolk, VA-NC --- 1,679,894 --- 1,671,683 --- 0.49% --- 8,211

38 - Greensboro, NC --- 1,602,693 --- 1,589,200 --- 0.85% --- 13,493

39 - Louisville, KY-IN --- 1,440,607 --- 1,427,483 --- 0.92% --- 13,124

40 - Jacksonville, FL --- 1,360,251 --- 1,345,596 --- 1.09% --- 14,655

41 - Oklahoma City, OK --- 1,348,333 --- 1,322,429 --- 1.96% --- 25,904

42 - Hartford, CT --- 1,331,406 --- 1,330,809 --- 0.04% --- 597

43 - Grand Rapids, MI --- 1,328,440 --- 1,321,557 --- 0.52% --- 6,883

44 - Memphis, TN-MS-AR --- 1,325,605 --- 1,316,100 --- 0.72% --- 9,505

45 - Greenville, SC --- 1,281,394 --- 1,266,995 --- 1.14% --- 14,399

46 - Richmond, VA --- 1,269,380 --- 1,258,251 --- 0.88% --- 11,129

47 - New Orleans, LA --- 1,238,228 --- 1,214,932 --- 1.92% --- 23,296

48 - Buffalo, NY --- 1,213,871 --- 1,215,826 --- -0.16% --- -1,955

49 - Birmingham, AL --- 1,212,800 --- 1,208,453 --- 0.36% --- 4,347

50 - Albany, NY --- 1,168,120 --- 1,168,485 --- -0.03% --- -365

51 - Rochester, NY --- 1,150,469 --- 1,149,653 --- 0.07% --- 816

52 - Fresno, CA --- 1,095,829 --- 1,081,315 --- 1.34% --- 14,514

53 - Dayton, OH --- 1,075,683 --- 1,072,891 --- 0.26% --- 2,792

54 - Knoxville, TN --- 1,063,354 --- 1,055,086 --- 0.78% --- 8,268

55 - Tulsa, OK --- 998,438 --- 988,454 --- 1.01% --- 9,984

56 - Tucson, AZ --- 989,569 --- 980,263 --- 0.95% --- 9,306

57 - Honolulu, HI --- 963,607 --- 953,207 --- 1.09% --- 10,400

58 - Omaha, NE-IA --- 913,883 --- 902,041 --- 1.31% --- 11,842

59 - Albuquerque, NM --- 898,642 --- 887,077 --- 1.30% --- 11,565

60 - Little Rock, AR --- 886,992 --- 877,091 --- 1.13% --- 9,901

61 - Sarasota, FL --- 869,866 --- 862,259 --- 0.88% --- 7,607

62 - Bakersfield, CA --- 851,710 --- 839,631 --- 1.44% --- 12,079

63 - Baton Rouge, LA --- 831,395 --- 825,905 --- 0.66% --- 5,490

64 - Allentown, PA-NJ --- 824,916 --- 821,173 --- 0.46% --- 3,743

65 - Columbia, SC --- 814,837 --- 805,106 --- 1.21% --- 9,731

66 - El Paso, TX --- 820,790 --- 800,647 --- 2.52% --- 20,143

67 - McAllen, TX --- 797,810 --- 774,769 --- 2.97% --- 23,041

68 - Syracuse, NY --- 742,291 --- 742,603 --- -0.04% --- -312

69 - Toledo, OH --- 711,000 --- 712,373 --- -0.19% --- -1,373

70 - Chattanooga, TN-GA --- 702,714 --- 696,197 --- 0.94% --- 6,517

71 - Lexington, KY --- 696,340 --- 687,173 --- 1.34% --- 9,167

72 - Stockton, CA --- 696,214 --- 685,306 --- 1.59% --- 10,908

73 - Springfield, MA --- 693,204 --- 692,942 --- 0.04% --- 262

74 - Harrisburg, PA --- 687,222 --- 683,043 --- 0.61% --- 4,179

75 - Youngstown, OH-PA --- 670,309 --- 673,614 --- -0.49% --- -3,305

76 - Charleston, SC --- 682,121 --- 664,607 --- 2.64% --- 17,514

77 - Wichita, KS --- 661,798 --- 659,372 --- 0.37% --- 2,426

78 - Colorado Springs, CO --- 660,319 --- 645,613 --- 2.28% --- 14,706

79 - Des Moines, IA --- 650,137 --- 639,784 --- 1.62% --- 10,353

80 - Madison, WI --- 638,757 --- 630,569 --- 1.30% --- 8,188

81 - Cape Coral-Ft. Myers, FL --- 631,330 --- 618,754 --- 2.03% --- 12,576

82 - Boise City, ID --- 627,664 --- 616,561 --- 1.80% --- 11,103

83 - Portland, ME --- 623,205 --- 621,800 --- 0.23% --- 1,405

84 - Fort Wayne, IN --- 615,077 --- 611,712 --- 0.55% --- 3,365

85 - Lakeland, FL --- 609,492 --- 602,095 --- 1.23% --- 7,397

86 - Mobile, AL --- 599,294 --- 595,257 --- 0.68% --- 4,037

87 - Huntsville, AL --- 579,550 --- 571,422 --- 1.42% --- 8,128

88 - Jackson, MS --- 573,280 --- 567,122 --- 1.09% --- 6,158

89 - Port St. Lucie, FL --- 566,768 --- 562,135 --- 0.82% --- 4,633

90 - South Bend, IN-MI --- 564,679 --- 563,834 --- 0.15% --- 845

91 - Scranton-Wilkes Barre, PA --- 563,223 --- 563,631 --- -0.07% --- -408

92 - Augusta, GA-SC --- 561,858 --- 556,877 --- 0.89% --- 4,981

93 - Lafayette, LA --- 554,517 --- 550,134 --- 0.80% --- 4,383

94 - Palm Bay-Melbourne, FL --- 543,566 --- 543,376 --- 0.03% --- 190

95 - Provo, UT --- 540,834 --- 526,810 --- 2.66% --- 14,024

96 - York, PA --- 538,204 --- 536,379 --- 0.34% --- 1,825

97 - Lansing, MI --- 534,979 --- 534,684 --- 0.06% --- 295

98 - Lancaster, PA --- 523,594 --- 519,445 --- 0.80% --- 4,149

99 - Modesto, CA --- 518,522 --- 514,453 --- 0.79% --- 4,069

100 - Johnson City, TN-VA --- 509,611 --- 508,260 --- 0.27% --- 1,351



--- Syracuse back to negative;

--- Toledo losing people even faster;

--- Harrisburg, York and Lancaster will be merged into one CSA at some point, won't they? Maybe Lancaster can go to Philadelphia;

--- Youngstown is being evacuated. Again, when the gas will boost Ohio?

--- Charleston, WOW! Excuse me Dallas and Houston...

--- Des Moines and Madison very health growth. It would be nice to see the big midwestern cities emulating them;

--- Scranton-Wilkes Barre, after growing in the last decade for the first time since the 1920's, it's now going back to negative. Maybe it's the New York thing I'm talking about. Less exurban excedents;

--- Provo and Salt Lake City are about to be merged. Crazy growth.



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Originally Posted by Xusein

Can't think of it making much of a factor overall just yet, Hartford is still pretty far from NYC. The lack of a commuter rail link disadvantages it.

Also, the fastest growing areas in Greater Hartford between 2000-10 were in the eastern part of the metro which are even further from NYC.

NYC exurban growth is probably furthest on the edges of Litchfield and New Haven counties, which are both already in the NYC CSA. The only way that I can see Hartford being subsumed into the NYC CSA is if commuting percentages with places like New Haven increase, but I think that is unlikely.

I was not talking specifically about commuting or to a possible bigger CSA. I heard few years ago, Philadelphia was managing to capture somre New Yorkers due the high prices of Manhattan. In the past decade, Philadelphia area grew indeed more than New York's. And now, while New York is growing at least twice as faster, all the neighbouring areas (Philadelphia, Hartford, Allentown, Scranton, slowed down. So, I thought maybe those areas were capturing some of the excedents of New York, and now, they are stopping to do it.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Didn't realize Baton Rouge is larger than El Paso.

[Somnifor]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

--- Des Moines and Madison very health growth. It would be nice to see the big midwestern cities emulating them;

I tend to see Midwestern cities as falling into two groups, One boomed with the growth of heavy industry and has been forced to redefine itself since (with various degrees of success). The other grew more slowly in the first half of the 20th century but has continued with moderate to strong growth with more diversified white collar economies. The differences between these two types of cities have existed for a long time.

Detroit
St Louis
Cleveland
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
Toledo
Fort Wayne
Dayton
Akron
Youngstown

Minneapolis/St Paul
Indianapolis
Columbus
Omaha
Des Moines
Madison

[WeimieLvr]

Originally Posted by Somnifor

I tend to see Midwestern cities as falling into two groups, One boomed with the growth of heavy industry and has been forced to redefine itself since (with various degrees of success). The other grew more slowly in the first half of the 20th century but has continued with moderate to strong growth with more diversified white collar economies. The differences between these two types of cities have existed for a long time.

Detroit
St Louis
Cleveland
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
Toledo
Fort Wayne
Dayton
Akron
Youngstown

Minneapolis/St Paul
Indianapolis
Columbus
Omaha
Des Moines
Madison

I'm guessing Chicago could fit either category...

[bayviews]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

Yes, I've noticed that comparing 1999/2009 Estimates with the 2000/2010 Census. But how are they able to track the trends? Taking this Pittsburgh example, how they can ascertain this area is no longer loosing people (if that is the case) unlike the previous decades?

I'd be more than a bit skeptical as regards the estimates of Pittsburgh's re-growth.

Weren't NYC & Chicago among others were caught by surprise as regards lower 2010 census counts as opposed to earlier census estimates?

[Somnifor]

Originally Posted by WeimieLvr

I'm guessing Chicago could fit either category...

Yeah, that is why I didn't put it in either list. It is a different animal than any of the other cities in the Midwest. I wasn't sure what to do with Kansas City either.

[WeimieLvr]

Originally Posted by Somnifor

Yeah, that is why I didn't put it in either list. It is a different animal than any of the other cities in the Midwest. I wasn't sure what to do with Kansas City either.

Yeah, they are both kinda different...declining yet growing, successful yet struggling. A lot of cities outside of the Midwest fit that description.

[bayviews]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

--- Buffalo, Buffalo... When will people stop to leave you?... At least, the exodus is slowing down (it was -0.29% yearly 2000-2010). I hope that's part of a trend, similar to Pittsburgh's. If the old patterns would have been kept, Buffalo could be a 3 million people CSA today.

--- Birmingham with its traditional rust beltish growth. To think of in 1950, Birmingham and Atlanta metro areas were pretty much of the same size;

Actually, being in a period when many are “stuck in place” Buffalo’s decline owes much less to people leaving (or even those dying) than all the would-be immigrants, particularly Mexicans & other Latinos, that got busted while trying to come to or thru western NY State.

Believe it or not, what’s really amazing is that over the past year, 2011, the Buffalo Homeland Security District (BHSD) that covers most of upstate NY, region boasted of achieving the very dubious distinction of nabbing the largest number of would-be arrivals from Mexico along the northern border. Albeit Buffalo ranks DEAD LAST among major million-plus metros in actual Mexican-born population!

Nope, Metro Buffalo wouldn’t have grown to anywhere near 3 million today under any circumstances. However, had its leaders & locals tolerated less draconian policies toward our largest immigration sources, like Milwaukee and many other smarter metros, Metro Buffalo too might also have grown to 1.8 million by now. In 1960 both metros, Buffalo & Milwaukee were about the same size, with both having about 1.3 million each in their metros.

Across the US, even within a Federal Dept like Homeland Security, we’ve seen very divergent immigration “policies”. And in sharp contrast to many places that have grown, owing to having relaxed attitudes or local sanctuary policies, around Buffalo, sheriffs, police, & even local unions, also take a very aggressive role in helping with immigration enforcement. That is when it comes Mexicans and other Latinos.

Thus, its really no big surprise here that in recent decades, in this pair of traditionally Old World ethnic, blue-collar, post-industrial, Great Lakes metros that have shared much in common (including high rates of racial segregation, etc.) we’ve seen remarkably dramatically different outcomes in terms of metro growth (as in Milwaukee) or decline. (as in Buffalo).

Nope, this isn’t the first time where the more tolerant place finished well ahead of the more xenophobic place, when it came to growth. During the Civil Rights era, we saw something similar in very divergent outcomes in two Southern cities that historically had been about the same size. Birmingham, the city where civil rights demonstrators were beaten by police & churches were bombed, withered. While Atlanta, that branded itself as the “City Too Busy to Hate”, literally took off!

[TexasBoi]

7 - Dallas, TX --- 6,887,383 --- 6,731,317 --- 2.32% --- 156,066

Looks like the DFW area joins the 7 million club either for 2013 census or in 2014 if the growth continues.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

3 - Chicago, IL --- 9,729,825 --- 9,686,021 --- 0.45% --- 43,804

4 - Washington-Baltimore, DC-MD-VA-WV --- 8,718,083 --- 8,572,971 --- 1.69% --- 145,112
.

If the growth rates remain constant, and no additions are added to either CSA, Washington-Baltimore will pass Chicago in 10 years:

2021:

Washington-Baltimore: 10,168,000

Chicago: 10,167,865

[Yuri S Andrade]

I made projections for 2020. Forgot to post it:

New York --- 23,457,000
Los Angeles --- 20,058,000
Chicago --- 10,152,000
Washington-Baltimore --- 10,123,000
San Francisco --- 8,483,000
Dallas --- 8,402,000
Boston --- 8,012,000
Houston --- 7,547,000
Philadelphia --- 6,841,000
Miami --- 6,696,000
Atlanta --- 6,622,000
Detroit --- 5,096,000
Seattle --- 4,950,000
Phoenix --- 4,947,000
Minneapolis --- 4,041,000
Denver --- 3,805,000
San Diego --- 3,575,000
Orlando --- 3,279,000
Tampa --- 3,227,000
St. Louis --- 2,927,000
Charlotte --- 2,829,000
Cleveland --- 2,765,000
Sacramento --- 2,757,000
San Antonio --- 2,704,000
Portland --- 2,617,000
Austin --- 2,482,000
Pittsburgh --- 2,479,000
Indianapolis --- 2,326,000
Columbus --- 2,308,000
Kansas City --- 2,298,000
Cincinnati --- 2,256,000
Raleigh --- 2,244,000
Las Vegas --- 2,190,000
Salt Lake City --- 2,083,000

[chicagogeorge]

Interesting. Thanks!

[Yuri S Andrade]

I'm bored. So I asked myself: what if some metro areas kept the same share they used to have in previous decades, in the 2010 US total population? I've chosen 1950, 1960 and 1970 as references and Buffalo (the five northwesternmost NY counties), Cleveland (Cleveland CSA and Canton CSA), Pittsburgh (the ten southwesternmost PA counties) and Youngstown (the current CSA) as subjects (I intend to add more later):

1950
Pittsburgh --- 5,730,000
Cleveland --- 5,175,000
Buffalo --- 2,723,000
Youngstown --- 1,281,000

1960
Cleveland --- 5,486,000
Pittsburgh --- 5,159,000
Buffalo --- 2,698,000
Youngstown --- 1,281,000

1970
Cleveland --- 5,307,000
Pittsburgh --- 4,535,000
Buffalo --- 2,455,000
Youngstown --- 1,173,000


The axis Cleveland-Youngstown-Pittsburgh would dwarf the Canadian Golden Horseshoe with 12,186,000 people (1950 as reference for the alternative 2010) or 11,926,000 (1960) or 11,015,000 (1970). Imagine a high-speed train linking all this area! What about the skyline? The Cleveland's waterfront? Nice, isn't it?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Their actual population in 2010:
Cleveland --- 3,286,359
Pittsburgh --- 2,574,959
Buffalo --- 1,392,886
Youngstown --- 673,614

Their actual population in 1970, 1960 and 1950:
Cleveland --- 3,492,302 --- 3,186,619 --- 2,535,680
Pittsburgh --- 2,985,376 --- 2,996,726 --- 2,808,917
Buffalo --- 1,615,870 --- 1,567,314 --- 1,335,142
Youngstown --- 771,488 --- 743,529 --- 627,418

[Somnifor]

Interesting, these sorts of figures give you an idea of how important these places were back then. I would be curious to see numbers for Detroit too.

[bayviews]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

I'm bored. So I asked myself: what if some metro areas kept the same share they used to have in previous decades, in the 2010 US total population? I've chosen 1950, 1960 and 1970 as references and Buffalo (the five northwesternmost NY counties), Cleveland (Cleveland CSA and Canton CSA), Pittsburgh (the ten southwesternmost PA counties) and Youngstown (the current CSA) as subjects (I intend to add more later):
The axis Cleveland-Youngstown-Pittsburgh would dwarf the Canadian Golden Horseshoe with 12,186,000 people (1950 as reference for the alternative 2010) or 11,926,000 (1960) or 11,015,000 (1970). Imagine a high-speed train linking all this area! What about the skyline? The Cleveland's waterfront? Nice, isn't it?

Interesting! The supposed booming future of the St Lawrence Seaway industrial Great Lakes was the cover story a Newsweek Magazine series back in the mid-1950s.

As things turned out the seaway made once busy ports like Buffalo reduntant & irrelevent, & by the 1970s much of the industrial midwest ended up as the rustbelt.

[Yuri S Andrade]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

I'm bored. So I asked myself: what if some metro areas kept the same share they used to have in previous decades, in the 2010 US total population? I've chosen 1950, 1960 and 1970 as references and Buffalo (the five northwesternmost NY counties), Cleveland (Cleveland CSA and Canton CSA), Pittsburgh (the ten southwesternmost PA counties) and Youngstown (the current CSA) as subjects (I intend to add more later):

(...)

OK guys, as you asked: Detroit (Detroit CSA, Toledo CSA+Henry County and Adrian µSA), Rochester (Rochester CSA and Yates County) and Duluth (the current MSA):

1940
Detroit --- 7,904,000
Pittsburgh --- 6,246,000
Cleveland --- 4,999,000
Buffalo --- 2,769,000
Rochester --- 1,633,000
Youngstown --- 1,318,000
Duluth --- 651,000


1950
Detroit --- 8,762,000
Pittsburgh --- 5,730,000
Cleveland --- 5,175,000
Buffalo --- 2,723,000
Rochester --- 1,572,000
Youngstown --- 1,281,000
Duluth --- 565,000


1960
Detroit --- 9,213,000
Cleveland --- 5,486,000
Pittsburgh --- 5,159,000
Buffalo --- 2,698,000
Rochester --- 1,559,000
Youngstown --- 1,281,000
Duluth --- 525,000


1970
Detroit --- 9,182,000
Cleveland --- 5,307,000
Pittsburgh --- 4,535,000
Buffalo --- 2,455,000
Rochester --- 1,633,000
Youngstown --- 1,173,000
Duluth --- 445,000



--- I also decided to include the year 1940, as the Rust Belt of Northeast started its relative decline by that time. On Midwest, it arrived later: Cleveland peaked by 1960 and Detroit by the late 1960's. Duluth is a sui generis case as its decline started on the late 1910's;

--- The axis Buffalo-Rochester with 4,402,000 people (1940) or 4,295,000 (1950) or 4,257,000 (1960) or 4,088,000 (1970), posing some challenge to Toronto "supremacy" over Lake Ontario;

--- Detroit Mega-City! Not to mention the much more populated Lansing, Saginaw and Jackson areas pressing to get into the CSA, leaving the area way above the 10 million-barrier. And there's also a likely 600,000 people Windsor area just across the border. I imagine, no matter the scenario, the city of Detroit would certainly be over 1.5 million people, being a very vibrant city, pretty much like Toronto today. And the skyline?!?!?!


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Their actual population in 2010:
Detroit --- 6,059,332
Cleveland --- 3,286,359
Pittsburgh --- 2,574,959
Buffalo --- 1,392,886
Rochester --- 1,175,001
Youngstown --- 673,614
Duluth --- 279,771

Their actual population in 1970, 1960, 1950 and 1940:
Detroit --- 6,043,473 --- 5,351,411 --- 4,294,921 --- 3,434,899
Cleveland --- 3,492,302 --- 3,186,619 --- 2,535,680 --- 2,139,199
Pittsburgh --- 2,985,376 --- 2,996,726 --- 2,808,917 --- 2,673,634
Buffalo --- 1,615,870 --- 1,567,314 --- 1,335,142 --- 1,186,113
Rochester --- 1,075,152 --- 905,250 --- 769,668 --- 699,148
Youngstown --- 771,488 --- 743,529 --- 627,418 --- 563,726
Duluth --- 293,422 --- 304,528 --- 277,361 --- 278,248