American Demographics Thread

[bayviews]

Finally Pittsburgh may be turning a crucial corner when it comes to trading decline for re-growth. So far the uptick is very modest & it remains to be seen if its a lasting trend. Looks like this first inkling of re-growth owes a lot to Pittsburgh taking cues from other metros & beginning to welcome new immigrants after the 2000 census:

In Pittsburgh, the welcome mat is out to immigrants
Dan Fitzpatrick. Knight Ridder Tribune Business News. Washington: Dec 4, 2005. pg. 1

Copyright 2005, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News.

Dec. 4--Pittsburgh, once a true melting pot, is now one of the least international big cities in America, and that could foreshadow more problems for an already slow local economy.

Only 3 percent, or 72,325, of the Pittsburgh-area population was foreign born as of 2004, one of the lowest percentages of any major U.S. city. From 2000 to 2004, the region added 11,039 international migrants -- a mere 0.5 percent increase, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

It was the lowest increase among the nation's top 25 metro areas, trailing many similar-sized regions: Denver added 62,765, Seattle added 72,152, Minneapolis added 49,455, and Cleveland added 16,361.

Even Cincinnati, which rivals Pittsburgh in the homogeneity department, added slightly more immigrants (11,836) from 2000 to 2004.

The reason Pittsburgh's immigration rate is so alarming to followers of the local economy is what it portends: slow growth.

As Pittsburgh's work force grows older and in need of replacement and as the region continues to lose population -- the seven-county area dropped another 1.1 percent during 2000-2004 -- economic development experts predict that an area unattractive to immigrants will have a hard time filling positions if the economy grows at even a marginal rate in the next 10 to 20 years. As of 2000, foreigners accounted for 2.7 percent of the Pittsburgh-area work force, a rate trailing all similar-sized cities.

Every year, about 3,000 people enter the labor pool in the Pittsburgh area -- not enough to keep pace with a 1 percent growth rate in jobs, abtout 10,000 jobs a year. One Duquesne University study, in fact, predicted a shortage of workers in the Pittsburgh area that could reach 125,000 by 2010 and 225,000 by 2020.

"At some point, you run out of more people who want to go into the labor force," said Jerry Paytas, director of Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz School Center for Economic Development. "We do need to bring people in."

The one bit of encouraging news is that Pittsburgh's foreign- born population is moving upward -- if only slightly -- for the first time in more than half a century.

After 1940, when the foreign-born population represented more than 12 percent of the region's residents, the percentage dropped decade after decade until hitting a low of 2.4 percent in 1990. By 2000, the number had inched up to 2.6 percent, the first increase in at least 50 years. The number moved up further to 3 percent in 2004.

Reflecting an uptick in the numbers, the region's top universities, medical centers and technology firms have done reasonably well attracting doctors, engineers and other well- educated workers from India, China, South America and elsewhere.

Disk drive maker Seagate Technology, for example, has employees from 25 countries working at its research center in the Strip District. There are reports of a growing Spanish-speaking enclave in Beechview and a thriving Indian community in parts of the South Hills. Last year PNC Financial Services Group began running local ads in Spanish, including a message that flashes to commuters along Route 19.

Despite all this, there was no across-the-board growth in Asians, Hispanics and other foreigners as there was in other big cities during the 1990s and the first several years of the 21st century. And Pittsburgh's slight foreign-born population increase during the '90s, from 2.4 to 2.6 percent, pales when compared with a city such as Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, where more than 40 percent of the population is foreign-born, or San Diego (more than 20 percent) or even Atlanta (10 percent).

"Pittsburgh is the white-ist large metro area in the nation," said Christopher Briem, of the University Center for Social and Urban Research at the University of Pittsburgh.

Foreigners tend to move to coastal areas where they have access to home countries and to places with established communities already in place. Immigration in the United States also tends to be concentrated in certain areas -- six states, including California and New York, are home to 68 percent of all foreign-born residents despite being home to only 40 percent of the nation's population. Nationally, more than half -- 51.7 percent -- of the foreign-born population is from Latin America.

In the Pittsburgh area, Latin Americans make up 8.8 percent of the foreign-born population. Much larger percentages belong to the Europeans, 47.5 percent, and Asians, 35.1 percent.

It should be noted, however, that the immigrants who do arrive in southwestern Pennsylvania are extremely well educated, with 58 percent having a bachelor's degree or higher -- the highest proportion of any major metro area in the nation, according to Mr. Briem. That means that Pittsburgh is probably not getting many "undocumented," or illegal, immigrants, who typically fill service jobs in faster-growing parts of the country and form an underground economy of sorts.

The number of illegal migrants to southwestern Pennsylvania is hard to quantify, experts say. Mr. Briem's guess, though, is that the number is very, very low, reflecting the low rate of legal immigration. As to whether that could change, Mr. Briem said, "The numbers just can't go down any farther than where they have been in the last couple of decades. You can only go up from zero."

Several local organizations are doing their best to increase the flow of foreigners, believing that more immigrants could fill labor shortages in various trades, including nursing and manufacturing, while also making Pittsburgh a more vibrant, cosmopolitan city and increasing its political clout.

"We need people," said Andy Pugh, of the Welcome Center for Immigrants & Internationals, in Squirrel Hill, a group that helps foreigners find housing, schools and health care.

Added Schuyler Foerster, president of the World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh: "if we want to grow the economy we need to increase our work force. Other cities have done it with a substantial influx of immigrants. That's empirical."

While native-born Americans need to be trained for highly skilled jobs, too, immigrants are a part of the labor pool "we shouldn't ignore," said Barry Maciak, executive director of Duquesne University's Institute for Economic Transformation.

[Yuri S Andrade]

Ok, another round. I hope you don't get bored:

1940
Detroit --- 7,904,000
Pittsburgh --- 6,246,000
Cleveland --- 5,184,000
St. Louis --- 4,162,000
Baltimore --- 2,810,000
Buffalo --- 2,769,000
Milwaukee --- 2,485,000
Rochester --- 1,633,000
Youngstown --- 1,318,000
Duluth --- 651,000
Jackson --- 216,000


1950
Detroit --- 8,762,000
Pittsburgh --- 5,730,000
Cleveland --- 5,360,000
St. Louis --- 4,137,000
Baltimore --- 3,032,000
Buffalo --- 2,723,000
Milwaukee --- 2,498,000
Rochester --- 1,572,000
Youngstown --- 1,281,000
Duluth --- 565,000
Jackson --- 219,000


1960
Detroit --- 9,213,000
Cleveland --- 5,684,000
Pittsburgh --- 5,159,000
St. Louis --- 4,100,000
Baltimore --- 3,162,000
Buffalo --- 2,698,000
Milwaukee --- 2,640,000
Rochester --- 1,559,000
Youngstown --- 1,281,000
Duluth --- 525,000
Jackson --- 228,000


1970
Detroit --- 9,182,000
Cleveland --- 5,505,000
Pittsburgh --- 4,535,000
St. Louis --- 4,035,000
Baltimore --- 3,199,000
Milwaukee --- 2,587,000
Buffalo --- 2,455,000
Rochester --- 1,633,000
Youngstown --- 1,173,000
Duluth --- 445,000
Jackson --- 219,000



--- St. Louis, following the same pattern of Pittsburgh: losing space since the 1930's, although in a slower pace;

--- Getting out of Midwest/Great Lakes with Baltimore: surprinsingly (at least to me) this city regarded for some as part of the Rust Belt, gained share all over the period. The decline (soft though) started only in the 1970's;

--- And a much "heavier" Jackson, pressing against a 9 million-people Detroit CSA;

--- EDITING: I forgot Milwaukee! The city follow the same pattern of Cleveland: gaining space between 1940-1960 and landing during the 1960's. In all those scenarios, the city would be together with Chicago in a single CSA.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Their actual population in 2010:

Detroit --- 6,059,332
Cleveland --- 3,454,018
St. Louis --- 2,971,220
Baltimore --- 2,730,686
Pittsburgh --- 2,574,959
Milwaukee --- 1,923,761
Buffalo --- 1,392,886
Rochester --- 1,175,001
Youngstown --- 673,614
Duluth --- 279,771
Jackson --- 160,248


Their actual population in 1970, 1960, 1950 and 1940:

Detroit --- 6,043,473 --- 5,351,411 --- 4,294,921 --- 3,434,899
Cleveland --- 3,622,728 --- 3,300,887 --- 2,627,436 --- 2,219,504
Pittsburgh --- 2,985,376 --- 2,996,726 --- 2,808,917 --- 2,673,634
St. Louis --- 2,656,681 --- 2,381,996 --- 2,028,507 --- 1,781,564
Baltimore --- 2,105,238 --- 1,835,795 --- 1,485,437 --- 1,202,530
Milwaukee --- 1,703,590 --- 1,533,895 --- 1,224,476 --- 1,064,239
Buffalo --- 1,615,870 --- 1,567,314 --- 1,335,142 --- 1,186,113
Rochester --- 1,075,152 --- 905,250 --- 769,668 --- 699,148
Youngstown --- 771,488 --- 743,529 --- 627,418 --- 563,726
Duluth --- 293,422 --- 304,528 --- 277,361 --- 278,248
Jackson --- 143,274 --- 131,994 --- 108,168 --- 93,108


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Definition:

Baltimore, MD --- Baltimore MSA and Kent County

Buffalo, NY --- the five northwesternmost NY counties

Cleveland, OH --- Cleveland and Canton CSAs and Ashland and Wooster µSAs

Detroit, MI-OH --- Detroit and Toledo CSAs and Adrian

Duluth, MN-WI --- the current MSA

Jackson, MI --- the current MSA

Milwaukee, WI --- Milwaukee CSA and Dodge and Jefferson counties

Pittsburgh, PA --- the ten southwesternmost PA counties

Rochester, NY --- Rochester CSA and Yates County

St. Louis, MO-IL --- St. Louis CSA and Greene, Randolph, Gasconade, Montgomery and Ste. Genevieve counties

Youngstown, OH-PA --- the current CSA




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Originally Posted by bayviews

Interesting! The supposed booming future of the St Lawrence Seaway industrial Great Lakes was the cover story a Newsweek Magazine series back in the mid-1950s.

As things turned out the seaway made once busy ports like Buffalo reduntant & irrelevent, & by the 1970s much of the industrial midwest ended up as the rustbelt.

Do you have the link for those issues?

[bayviews]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

Do you have the link for those issues?

That Newsweek series ran in 1955, so their probably not online.

[chicagogeorge]

population, New York, L.A. grow New York City and Los Angeles are widening their lead as the largest cities in America, while Midwest cities appear lagging in population growth. In fact, Milwaukee and Chicago both lost population, compared with 2010 estimates from On Numbers, a service of Biz.com. Milwaukee's estimated population dipped to 594,297 from 594,833 in April 2010, a tiny decline but enough to drop the city to 31st largest in the United States, down three spots from 2010. Chicago lost an estimated total of 33,600 persons since April 2010. Its current population of 2,661,951 still puts it in third place. The five boroughs of New York contained 8,209,148 residents as of April 1, based on the latest population estimates by On Numbers. No. 2 Los Angeles was far behind at 3,808,204. Both cities had population growth of about 0.4 percent since 2010. The gap between the two cities was 4.40 million at the beginning of this week, which was wider than the margin two years ago of 4.38 million. While Milwaukee and Chicago shrank, the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul both reported population growth, but at a slower pace than that of New York City and L.A.

http://www.bizjournals.com/mobile/mi...ation-new.html

Rounding out the top five are the only other
U.S. cities with more than 1.5 million residents:
Houston (2,132,077) and Philadelphia (1,530,575)

http://www.bizjournals.com/mobile/bi...es-in-the.html


NYC and LA are now seeing stable slow growth, LA grew by about a mere 16,000 since the 2010 census, and NYC by about 35,000.... Not bad for NYC. Using this estimate, at this rate, LA won't hit 4 million for 25 years. A far cry from the city of LA's explosive growth 20 years ago...

Chicago has a badly cut artery, bleeding lower income residents (presumably continued African Americans migration to the suburbs and to the South), and at this rate, the city will be 2.5 million people in 2020 if not lower. In other words wide parts of the South and West sides will be desolate wastelands (as if they aren't in that situation already). Still, the city of Houston still has a long way to go to move into the third spot, based on the two year growth rate of 33,000.




And the 2012 MSA estimates

[Manitopiaaa]

That website is bogus. I always base estimates off what they put for New Orleans. This site has New Orleans' population at 315,000 which means that it's just a simple linear projection with no basis in reality. The Census pegged it at 360,000 so there's a 45,000 person discrepancy. I call B.S.

[ducus]

Some interesting data about the poverty:
http://www.city-data.com/poverty/pov...-Illinois.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/17/ny...ince-2005.html
So, NYC poverty rate is at highest level since 2005: 21%
In 2010, more than 1,7 residents were poor, and 1/4 of children under 18 years.
Number of food stamps users also increased from 2008 -773000 to more than a million two years later, in 2010!
Chicago's residents with income below poverty rate was 21,6% in 2009.

Now, in my opinion, if unemployment rate stays the same during years to come, it may poverty rate percentage increase and Chicago's population decrease even more that it has last decade.

LA stays a bit better, the below poverty percentage among residents was 19,8% in 2009. Thus, California poverty rate rises in 2010 for a fourth year in a row, more than six million people had incomes below poverty line of 22113$ for a family of four:
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep...ornia-20110914

Poverty rate map:
http://graphics.latimes.com/usmap-state-poverty-rate/

[bayviews]

Originally Posted by ducus

Some interesting data about the poverty:
http://www.city-data.com/poverty/pov...-Illinois.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/17/ny...ince-2005.html
So, NYC poverty rate is at highest level since 2005: 21%
In 2010, more than 1,7 residents were poor, and 1/4 of children under 18 years.
Number of food stamps users also increased from 2008 -773000 to more than a million two years later, in 2010!
Chicago's residents with income below poverty rate was 21,6% in 2009.

Now, in my opinion, if unemployment rate stays the same during years to come, it may poverty rate percentage increase and Chicago's population decrease even more that it has last decade.

LA stays a bit better, the below poverty percentage among residents was 19,8% in 2009. Thus, California poverty rate rises in 2010 for a fourth year in a row, more than six million people had incomes below poverty line of 22113$ for a family of four:
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep...ornia-20110914

Poverty rate map:
http://graphics.latimes.com/usmap-state-poverty-rate/

Good points about bad realities.

Without a doubt, many Americans fell thru the cracks into poverty during the post-2005 Great Recession. Which remains a reality in many parts of the country. And their not coming back up anytime soon.

The 1990s seemed like a much more prosperous decade than where we are now.

[Yuri S Andrade]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

I asked myself: what if some metro areas kept the same share they used to have in previous decades, in the 2010 US total population? I've chosen 1950, 1960 and 1970 as references (...)

Three more areas added:

1940
Chicago --- 12,165,000
Detroit --- 7,904,000
Pittsburgh --- 6,246,000
Cleveland --- 5,184,000
St. Louis --- 4,162,000
Baltimore --- 2,810,000
Buffalo --- 2,769,000
Cincinnati --- 2,637,000
Milwaukee --- 2,485,000
Scranton-Wilkes --- 1,923,000
Rochester --- 1,633,000
Youngstown --- 1,318,000
Duluth --- 651,000
Jackson --- 216,000


1950
Chicago --- 12,134,000
Detroit --- 8,762,000
Pittsburgh --- 5,730,000
Cleveland --- 5,360,000
St. Louis --- 4,137,000
Baltimore --- 3,032,000
Buffalo --- 2,723,000
Cincinnati --- 2,646,000
Milwaukee --- 2,498,000
Rochester --- 1,572,000
Scranton-Wilkes --- 1,482,000
Youngstown --- 1,281,000
Duluth --- 565,000
Jackson --- 219,000


1960
Chicago --- 12,504,000
Detroit --- 9,213,000
Cleveland --- 5,684,000
Pittsburgh --- 5,159,000
St. Louis --- 4,100,000
Baltimore --- 3,162,000
Cincinnati --- 2,760,000
Buffalo --- 2,698,000
Milwaukee --- 2,640,000
Rochester --- 1,559,000
Youngstown --- 1,281,000
Scranton-Wilkes --- 1,136,000
Duluth --- 525,000
Jackson --- 228,000


1970
Chicago --- 12,381,000
Detroit --- 9,182,000
Cleveland --- 5,505,000
Pittsburgh --- 4,535,000
St. Louis --- 4,035,000
Baltimore --- 3,199,000
Cincinnati --- 2,658,000
Milwaukee --- 2,587,000
Buffalo --- 2,455,000
Rochester --- 1,633,000
Youngstown --- 1,173,000
Scranton-Wilkes --- 1,000,000
Duluth --- 445,000
Jackson --- 219,000



--- Chicago kept pretty much the same share all over the period. The 1970's and the 1980's were the hard decades for the area. Of course, in those scenarios, Chicago and Milwaukee would be part of a single CSA, with 14,968,000 inhabitants (1970), 15,144,000 (1960), 14,632,000 (1950) and 14,650,000 (1940). Hence, the supremacy over Detroit would be kept on the ratio of 3:2 in 1960 (15.1 million vs. 9.2 million);

--- Cincinnati behaved like Cleveland, peaking in 1960. The decline, however, was way lesser dramatic. It's funny that the city looks very rust beltish (physically), but it's never experienced population loss, growing constantly all over the century, in a slow pace though. The city, however, was much more important in the late XIX and early XX century;

--- Scranton-Wilkes Barre is the textbook case of urban decline. It peaked (in absolute numbers) in 1930!!! It kept loosing population all over the century, but not as much as areas like Youngstown, where the decline started later. Now, the exurbs of New York seem to have reached the area, bring new dwellers to the area;


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Their actual population in 2010:

Chicago --- 9,788,249
Detroit --- 6,059,332
Cleveland --- 3,454,018
St. Louis --- 2,971,220
Baltimore --- 2,730,686
Pittsburgh --- 2,574,959
Cincinnati --- 2,211,622
Milwaukee --- 1,923,761
Buffalo --- 1,392,886
Rochester --- 1,175,001
Youngstown --- 673,614
Scranton-Wilkes --- 659,809
Duluth --- 279,771
Jackson --- 160,248


Their actual population in 1970, 1960, 1950 and 1940:

Chicago --- 8,152,865 --- 7,256,566 --- 5,953,400 --- 5,200,882
Detroit --- 6,043,473 --- 5,351,411 --- 4,294,921 --- 3,434,899
Cleveland --- 3,622,728 --- 3,300,887 --- 2,627,436 --- 2,219,504
Pittsburgh --- 2,985,376 --- 2,996,726 --- 2,808,917 --- 2,673,634
St. Louis --- 2,656,681 --- 2,381,996 --- 2,028,507 --- 1,781,564
Baltimore --- 2,105,238 --- 1,835,795 --- 1,485,437 --- 1,202,530
Cincinnati --- 1,749,345 --- 1,602,396 --- 1,296,672 --- 1,128,604
Milwaukee --- 1,703,590 --- 1,533,895 --- 1,224,476 --- 1,064,239
Buffalo --- 1,615,870 --- 1,567,314 --- 1,335,142 --- 1,186,113
Rochester --- 1,075,152 --- 905,250 --- 769,668 --- 699,148
Youngstown --- 771,488 --- 743,529 --- 627,418 --- 563,726
Scranton-Wilkes --- 659,415 --- 659,690 --- 726,851 --- 823,290
Duluth --- 293,422 --- 304,528 --- 277,361 --- 278,248
Jackson --- 143,274 --- 131,994 --- 108,168 --- 93,108


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Definition:

Baltimore, MD --- Baltimore MSA and Kent County

Buffalo, NY --- the five northwesternmost NY counties

Chicago, IL-IN-WI --- Chicago CSA and Whitewater µSA

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN --- Cincinnati CSA and Ripley and Switzerland counties

Cleveland, OH --- Cleveland and Canton CSAs and Ashland and Wooster µSAs

Detroit, MI-OH --- Detroit and Toledo CSAs and Adrian µSA

Duluth, MN-WI --- the current MSA

Jackson, MI --- the current MSA

Milwaukee, WI --- Milwaukee CSA and Dodge and Jefferson counties

Pittsburgh, PA --- the ten southwesternmost PA counties

Rochester, NY --- Rochester CSA and Yates County

Scranton-Wilkes Barre, PA --- Scranton-Wilkes Barre MSA and Susquehanna and Wayne counties

St. Louis, MO-IL --- St. Louis CSA and Greene, Randolph, Gasconade, Montgomery and Ste. Genevieve counties

Youngstown, OH-PA --- the current CSA



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Is there someone good with map editing? It would be nice to see the simulation for these urban areas in each scenario. I imagine the urban footprint might be a little bit denser than the real ones.

[old school]

When will you visit the US of A???
________________
Peace...

[Yuri S Andrade]

I'm organizing my life first (Mommy and daddy still funds me, partially, but still... Brazilian parents are such spoilers... ). But seriously, no time soon. Just to imagine the lines to get a visa... I don't do lines. Anyway, when I get there, I wanna the mates from SSC to drive me around in their cities. I hate to drive.

[chicagogeorge]

2011 population estimate growth by MSA

[old school]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

I'm organizing my life first (Mommy and daddy still funds me, partially, but still... Brazilian parents are such spoilers... ). But seriously, no time soon. Just to imagine the lines to get a visa... I don't do lines. Anyway, when I get there, I wanna the mates from SSC to drive me around in their cities. I hate to drive.

OK, I understand...
Hope when you do visit, you'll get a chance to venture beyond the usual tourist spots...
________________________
Peace, Love, Justice and Mercy...

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

I'm organizing my life first (Mommy and daddy still funds me, partially, but still... Brazilian parents are such spoilers... ). But seriously, no time soon. Just to imagine the lines to get a visa... I don't do lines. Anyway, when I get there, I wanna the mates from SSC to drive me around in their cities. I hate to drive.

If you wanna travel all around the country I suggest a discovery pass by Greyhound. It's cheap and you can go anywhere, anytime for a certain price. It's a good deal. And like the post above me try to avoid the tourist spots and also check out the Heartland! Too many tourists do NYC, DC, LA, and then leave without seeing our country's natural beauty and the charming towns of the interior. If you ever decide to come to Oklahoma I'll take you down Route 66 and into the Ouachita Mountains and the Ozarks and then through Tulsa which has the 3rd largest concentration of Art Deco in the United States!

[chicagogeorge]

The number of Mexican migrants to the United States dropped significantly while the number of those returning home increased, bringing net migration from Mexico to a statistical standstill, according to a report published Monday.
The shift over the last several years marks a significant change after four decades of historic immigration from Mexico, according to the report by the Pew Hispanic Center.
“The largest wave of immigration in history from a single country to the United States has come to a standstill,” the report says.
The downward trend in migration started about five years ago, according to the report.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lano...ml?track=icymi

[600West218]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

2011 population estimate growth by MSA

Amazing that Miami and Phoenix are doing that well given their economies going bust.

[600West218]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

Three more areas added:

1940
Chicago --- 12,165,000
Detroit --- 7,904,000
Pittsburgh --- 6,246,000
Cleveland --- 5,184,000
St. Louis --- 4,162,000
Baltimore --- 2,810,000
Buffalo --- 2,769,000
Cincinnati --- 2,637,000
Milwaukee --- 2,485,000
Scranton-Wilkes --- 1,923,000
Rochester --- 1,633,000
Youngstown --- 1,318,000
Duluth --- 651,000
Jackson --- 216,000


1950
Chicago --- 12,134,000
Detroit --- 8,762,000
Pittsburgh --- 5,730,000
Cleveland --- 5,360,000
St. Louis --- 4,137,000
Baltimore --- 3,032,000
Buffalo --- 2,723,000
Cincinnati --- 2,646,000
Milwaukee --- 2,498,000
Rochester --- 1,572,000
Scranton-Wilkes --- 1,482,000
Youngstown --- 1,281,000
Duluth --- 565,000
Jackson --- 219,000


1960
Chicago --- 12,504,000
Detroit --- 9,213,000
Cleveland --- 5,684,000
Pittsburgh --- 5,159,000
St. Louis --- 4,100,000
Baltimore --- 3,162,000
Cincinnati --- 2,760,000
Buffalo --- 2,698,000
Milwaukee --- 2,640,000
Rochester --- 1,559,000
Youngstown --- 1,281,000
Scranton-Wilkes --- 1,136,000
Duluth --- 525,000
Jackson --- 228,000


1970
Chicago --- 12,381,000
Detroit --- 9,182,000
Cleveland --- 5,505,000
Pittsburgh --- 4,535,000
St. Louis --- 4,035,000
Baltimore --- 3,199,000
Cincinnati --- 2,658,000
Milwaukee --- 2,587,000
Buffalo --- 2,455,000
Rochester --- 1,633,000
Youngstown --- 1,173,000
Scranton-Wilkes --- 1,000,000
Duluth --- 445,000
Jackson --- 219,000



--- Chicago kept pretty much the same share all over the period. The 1970's and the 1980's were the hard decades for the area. Of course, in those scenarios, Chicago and Milwaukee would be part of a single CSA, with 14,968,000 inhabitants (1970), 15,144,000 (1960), 14,632,000 (1950) and 14,650,000 (1940). Hence, the supremacy over Detroit would be kept on the ratio of 3:2 in 1960 (15.1 million vs. 9.2 million);

--- Cincinnati behaved like Cleveland, peaking in 1960. The decline, however, was way lesser dramatic. It's funny that the city looks very rust beltish (physically), but it's never experienced population loss, growing constantly all over the century, in a slow pace though. The city, however, was much more important in the late XIX and early XX century;

--- Scranton-Wilkes Barre is the textbook case of urban decline. It peaked (in absolute numbers) in 1930!!! It kept loosing population all over the century, but not as much as areas like Youngstown, where the decline started later. Now, the exurbs of New York seem to have reached the area, bring new dwellers to the area;


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Their actual population in 2010:

Chicago --- 9,788,249
Detroit --- 6,059,332
Cleveland --- 3,454,018
St. Louis --- 2,971,220
Baltimore --- 2,730,686
Pittsburgh --- 2,574,959
Cincinnati --- 2,211,622
Milwaukee --- 1,923,761
Buffalo --- 1,392,886
Rochester --- 1,175,001
Youngstown --- 673,614
Scranton-Wilkes --- 659,809
Duluth --- 279,771
Jackson --- 160,248


Their actual population in 1970, 1960, 1950 and 1940:

Chicago --- 8,152,865 --- 7,256,566 --- 5,953,400 --- 5,200,882
Detroit --- 6,043,473 --- 5,351,411 --- 4,294,921 --- 3,434,899
Cleveland --- 3,622,728 --- 3,300,887 --- 2,627,436 --- 2,219,504
Pittsburgh --- 2,985,376 --- 2,996,726 --- 2,808,917 --- 2,673,634
St. Louis --- 2,656,681 --- 2,381,996 --- 2,028,507 --- 1,781,564
Baltimore --- 2,105,238 --- 1,835,795 --- 1,485,437 --- 1,202,530
Cincinnati --- 1,749,345 --- 1,602,396 --- 1,296,672 --- 1,128,604
Milwaukee --- 1,703,590 --- 1,533,895 --- 1,224,476 --- 1,064,239
Buffalo --- 1,615,870 --- 1,567,314 --- 1,335,142 --- 1,186,113
Rochester --- 1,075,152 --- 905,250 --- 769,668 --- 699,148
Youngstown --- 771,488 --- 743,529 --- 627,418 --- 563,726
Scranton-Wilkes --- 659,415 --- 659,690 --- 726,851 --- 823,290
Duluth --- 293,422 --- 304,528 --- 277,361 --- 278,248
Jackson --- 143,274 --- 131,994 --- 108,168 --- 93,108


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Definition:

Baltimore, MD --- Baltimore MSA and Kent County

Buffalo, NY --- the five northwesternmost NY counties

Chicago, IL-IN-WI --- Chicago CSA and Whitewater µSA

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN --- Cincinnati CSA and Ripley and Switzerland counties

Cleveland, OH --- Cleveland and Canton CSAs and Ashland and Wooster µSAs

Detroit, MI-OH --- Detroit and Toledo CSAs and Adrian µSA

Duluth, MN-WI --- the current MSA

Jackson, MI --- the current MSA

Milwaukee, WI --- Milwaukee CSA and Dodge and Jefferson counties

Pittsburgh, PA --- the ten southwesternmost PA counties

Rochester, NY --- Rochester CSA and Yates County

Scranton-Wilkes Barre, PA --- Scranton-Wilkes Barre MSA and Susquehanna and Wayne counties

St. Louis, MO-IL --- St. Louis CSA and Greene, Randolph, Gasconade, Montgomery and Ste. Genevieve counties

Youngstown, OH-PA --- the current CSA



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Is there someone good with map editing? It would be nice to see the simulation for these urban areas in each scenario. I imagine the urban footprint might be a little bit denser than the real ones.

This shows the total collapse of Upstate New York.

Buffalo and Rochester should be major metropolitan areas. Instead they have declined into little nothings and the decline will likely get much worse going forward.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by 600West218

Amazing that Miami and Phoenix are doing that well given their economies going bust.

Well people retiring still want to live in the sunbelt, but also Miami is still a huge magnet for Latin American immigrants.

[bayviews]

Originally Posted by 600West218

This shows the total collapse of Upstate New York.

Buffalo and Rochester should be major metropolitan areas. Instead they have declined into little nothings and the decline will likely get much worse going forward.

Not quite yet a complete collapse.

Just a continuation of the long, slow decline of Western NY.

Would have been nice had Rochester’s modest growth spread to Buffalo.
Instead, Buffalo’s decline seems to have sprawled out to Rochester.

The decline in WNY owes primarily to the very heavy-handed immigration enforcement of the Buffalo “Homeland Security” outfit.

The very same immigrants who’ve come by the hundreds of thousands to revitalize downstate were arrested, jailed, & deported when they tried to come to WNY.

[600West218]

Originally Posted by bayviews

Not quite yet a complete collapse.

Just a continuation of the long, slow decline of Western NY.

Would have been nice had Rochester’s modest growth spread to Buffalo.
Instead, Buffalo’s decline seems to have sprawled out to Rochester.

The decline in WNY owes primarily to the very heavy-handed immigration enforcement of the Buffalo “Homeland Security” outfit.

The very same immigrants who’ve come by the hundreds of thousands to revitalize downstate were arrested, jailed, & deported when they tried to come to WNY.

Yup, I am familiar with the heavy hand of the immigration authorities in Rochester. Seems like the border patrol that came in with the fast ferry found a job harrassing people at the downtown train and bus stations.

Not good.

Still, I think Albany taxes and other high costs are the main culprit in Upstates demise. Hopefully it gets turned around some day

[Sounder]

Originally Posted by bayviews

The decline in WNY owes primarily to the very heavy-handed immigration enforcement of the Buffalo “Homeland Security” outfit.

No. It is due to being in a state dominated by ultra wealthy NYC. Upstate NY would be better off as a separate state with more favorable laws, taxation, and regulation for the area.