Which next developing country will become developed?

[seems]

Originally Posted by isakres

Ok, youve totally missed the point of this thread, your arguments are focused on which subcontinent is growing faster, and we are already know its Asia, but the threads title is which be developed first. You just have to take some figures and project growth to get an estimation by 2020. My results were Chile, Latvia, Lithuania, Argentina, etc. Malaysia is my Asian bet, but will came later within a second bunch of developong economies.

I beg to disagree Sir, you're the one missing my point...which will be developed first? In this time of crisis, do you expect a stable growth? That's why I prefer to talk about sustainable growth... and this is the concern of economists specialized in economic growth, in case you don't know...

about thread title, it is located in Citytalk and Urban Issues, not about countries...my images on cities comparison even more appropriate here than discussions on countries vs countries... but of course we can tolerate things like that, can we?

Its on History Books everywhere. I mean Elementary History books. Really, no body here is saying the opposite.

Please accept my apology, Japan's FDI data in Asian countries and the question on why the US prefer to invest in Asia weren't included in my school history books...

Serioously dude, you dont have any clue about Latin economies, otherwise you should realized that Latin Economies were pretty hermetic and closed to the exterior most of the past century. It was just recently (I mean the past 20 years) that they opened their Economies to foreign Investment.

I honestly don't, that's why I want to know...but Sir, just open your economy isn't enough... some researches prove that it may hurt your economy more, especially in the long run, while some prove otherwise...it depends on the particular country...

It is quite obvious to guess why should somebody may want to invest in China.....and its not exactly because Latinamerica is not a good place to put your money. Mexico recived a lot of money from the US in 2010, more than most Asian countries. Brazil also recieved a lot of money from the US.

http://www.census.gov/compendia/stat...es/12s1296.pdf

If you were a regular reader of Financial magazines, you may realize that Latinamerica is also a hot spot of investments right now.

All know that Mexico benefits from its geographical proximity to US...
But Sir, even with that close proximity, still US investments go across Pacific, and it's not only to China...

I know that some Latin American countries are investment hot spot... so as some Asian countries that's why we can't belittle them, can we?...

And you are also implying that China stands different in Asia. havent heard any of Vietnam or Indonesia.

I honestly don't know much about Vietnam or Indonesia except that the former are considered the second China but suffers high inflation recently, while the latter suffers from 1997 Asian crisis but grow rapidly recently with many positive reviews...

[isakres]

Oh my,

I feel like Im talking with my puppy "pancho" now....sorry Bud, Im leaving this discussion..

You better say which developing country will become developed first and list your assumptions. I have already done that.

Cheers dude, I have to make some things here in my developed neighborhood


j/k.

[Adde]

Originally Posted by VECTROTALENZIS

Actually I feel that PPP per capita gives a more accurate indicator of standard of living in different countries. I live in Sweden and according to nominal GDP per capita Sweden is higher than USA, Canada, and Singapore. But in PPP per capita Sweden is lower than those countries and I feel that it gives a more accurate picture. Americans can buy more things in their country than Swedes can do here because everything cost much more here in Sweden.

But that's not quite accurate. In the US for instance, salaries at the middle class/upper class level is higher than in Sweden, but that's before adjusting for things like health insurance costs, school tuition, child care etc. Sweden has also got a higher minimum wage than the US, so far fewer people live below the poverty level in Sweden than in the US.

[chornedsnorkack]

Let´s have a look at growth 2004...2010, of some countries
Argentina 4003 > 9131
Brazil 3665 > 10 816
Chile 5982 > 11 827
China 1486 > 4382
South Cyprus 21 665 > 28 854
Croatia 9241 > 13 776
Czechia 10 726 > 18 277
Estonia 8914 > 14 405
Hungary 10 151 > 13 024
India 630 > 1371
Indonesia 1188 > 2974
Latvia 5934 > 10 680
Lebanon 5805 > 10 041
Lithuania 6563 > 11 046
Malaysia 4816 > 8423
Malta 14 047 > 19 707
Mexico 7374 > 9522
Philippines 1093 > 2123
Poland 6627 > 12 323
Portugal 17 665 > 21 542
Russia 4100 > 10 356
Slovakia 7845 > 16 104
Slovenia 16 956 > 23 648
South Korea 15 029 > 20 756
Taiwan 14 986 > 18 558
Thailand 2603 > 4992
Turkey 5559 > 10 309
Uruguay 4161 > 11 998
Venezuela 4354 > 10 049
Vietnam 554 > 1174

[Motul]

Colombia approx: $3,000-$7,200

[Mehome]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

Because you keep saying things like "Latin America is frozen in time" without any data to back up your statement. Why do you do that?

read more : IMF Report

see? Asian countries are grow faster than Latam, and are likely to grow much faster than the rest of the world over the next decade or so. hope you're not surprised when we surpass Latam by that time. if you noticed, Indonesia's per capita income was much lower than those in Bolivia, Paraguay and Guyana, but now?

So, I guess there are a bunch of Asian developing countries that will become the next developed one, countries like Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, China etc etc. and that can happen even before 2025, not 2040, 2050 etc etc.

you dont believe it? take a look at its growth again and do your math!!!

[seems]

no use, they don't want to see it, they prefer to look at themselves as the center of the world....

Originally Posted by Mehome

read more : IMF Report

see? Asian countries are grow faster than Latam, and are likely to grow much faster than the rest of the world over the next decade or so. hope you're not surprised when we surpass Latam by that time. if you noticed, Indonesia's per capita income was much lower than those in Bolivia, Paraguay and Guyana, but now?

So, I guess there are a bunch of Asian developing countries that will become the next developed one, countries like Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, China etc etc. and that can happen even before 2025, not 2040, 2050 etc etc.

you dont believe it? take a look at its growth again and do your math!!!

[sixdegrees]

haha since there are automatic stairs in China, they believe they are going to become developed soon

Next Wednesday were going to see how far away is China to the Developed Status HDI, even growing at 10% ...

btw there are electric stairs and elevators in Latin America since generations ago, not since 2000


keep your new rich complexes at home, cause here you're doing the ridiculous and demonstrating why China is not reachig developed status anytime soon with your attitude dude.

[Motul]

Originally Posted by Mehome

read more : IMF Report

see? Asian countries are grow faster than Latam, and are likely to grow much faster than the rest of the world over the next decade or so. hope you're not surprised when we surpass Latam by that time. if you noticed, Indonesia's per capita income was much lower than those in Bolivia, Paraguay and Guyana, but now?

So, I guess there are a bunch of Asian developing countries that will become the next developed one, countries like Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, China etc etc. and that can happen even before 2025, not 2040, 2050 etc etc.

you dont believe it? take a look at its growth again and do your math!!!

Asian countries grew faster than Latin America during the 80's and 90's, although from a MUCH lower base. Now a days Latin America grows almost as fast as Asia and very solidly thanks to strong Institutional democracies (in most cases, not all). And of course, Asia has a big wealth gap compared to LA as a whole, so this is why it is evident that Latin America will become developed way sooner..

Latin America "stuck in time"? Maybe in the 80's, like I said. But over the last decade and this decade that started, growth has been astounding

[seems]

Sir, my presence here is to educate the like of you on development studies (for free)...

I feel sorry that you resort to this behavior knowing my knowledge is beyond you...
I had a good time though

I rest my case....

Originally Posted by isakres

Oh my,

I feel like Im talking with my puppy "pancho" now....sorry Bud, Im leaving this discussion..

You better say which developing country will become developed first and list your assumptions. I have already done that.

Cheers dude, I have to make some things here in my developed neighborhood


j/k.

[Motul]

Originally Posted by Mehome

read more : IMF Report

see? Asian countries are grow faster than Latam, and are likely to grow much faster than the rest of the world over the next decade or so. hope you're not surprised when we surpass Latam by that time. if you noticed, Indonesia's per capita income was much lower than those in Bolivia, Paraguay and Guyana, but now?

So, I guess there are a bunch of Asian developing countries that will become the next developed one, countries like Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, China etc etc. and that can happen even before 2025, not 2040, 2050 etc etc.

you dont believe it? take a look at its growth again and do your math!!!

This is easily explained (for the 100th time). Asia is growing from a lower base, so of course there is more space for expansion. Even so, the average Asian country has merely half the GDP per capita than the average Latin American country. And considering growth rates between both regions aren't too far apart, the tendency is favorable towards Latin america as far as development goes.

[seems]

provide your data, he already provides his showing that Asian countries grow faster... his data are from 2001 to 2010, not 80s and 90s, do your math, I like that phrase...

or perhaps your frozen in time because you people suck in math? haha kidding...

Originally Posted by Motul

Asian countries grew faster than Latin America during the 80's and 90's, although from a MUCH lower base. Now a days Latin America grows almost as fast as Asia and very solidly thanks to strong Institutional democracies (in most cases, not all). And of course, Latin America gas a big wealth gap compared to Asia as a whole, so this is why it is evident that Latin America will become developed way sooner..

Latin America "stuck in time"? Maybe in the 80's, like I said. But over the last decade and this decade that started, growth has been astounding

[Mehome]

Originally Posted by Motul

This is easily explained (for the 100th time). Asia is growing from a lower base, so of course there is more space for expansion. Even so, the average Asian country has merely half the GDP per capita than the average Latin American country. And considering growth rates between both regions aren't too far apart, the tendency is favorable towards Latin america as far as development goes.

what? growing from a lower base? I think that lower base had nothing to do with what you see now in South Korea, Singapore, Japan, etc. Now, "the average Asian country has merely half the GDP per capita than the average Latin American country", but dont you notice that the gap was waaayyyy bigger??

[seems]

yup, you're right, there're electric stairs and elevators in Latin America since decades ago....however, it seems that they're broken, that's why Asian Tigers become developed and you're still frozen in time....

and careful for what you wish for, your government soon will receive financial aids from China...

Originally Posted by sixdegrees

haha since there are automatic stairs in China, they believe they are going to become developed soon

Next Wednesday were going to see how far away is China to the Developed Status HDI, even growing at 10% ...

btw there are electric stairs and elevators in Latin America since generations ago, not since 2000


keep your new rich complexes at home, cause here you're doing the ridiculous and demonstrating why China is not reachig developed status anytime soon with your attitude dude.

[Motul]

How's this for math. According to the table (I excluded Singapore for obvious reasons, it's wealth gap with the rest of the region and proportionally minuscule population would inflate the numbers to an unrepresentative level, plus it's already considered developed).

Average Latin America GDP per Capita: $7,394
Average Asia GDP per Capita: $4,566

Expected Average growth Asia 2012 (countries in table): 5.8%
Expected Averge growth L.A. 2012 (countries in table): 4.6%

The difference in growth rate isn't abismal, while the difference in GDP per capita is quite considerable. Just because Asia grew way faster in the past, doesn't mean the trend will continue for eternity, GDP growth rates in both regions are actually equalizing faster than GDP per capita. What does this mean? that soon L.A. will be growing at rates very similar to Asia but with much higher gdp per capita., which assure a clear advantage in this field.

As a note, I only took countries in that table, which is not very representative, because while most Latin American countries are considered in it, many asian countries are not (Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, Cambodia, Laos, etc). If we were to consider all developing countries in Asia, it's GDP per capita would be reduced even lower in comparison to Latin America.

I will do a more comprehensive study later on including ALL developing countries in both regions so that we have a more clear result to compare.

[Jonesy55]

Anybody who takes current growth and projects it forward into infinity is deluded I'm afraid.

You can't simply say that if country A currently has $12k per capita and 5% growth while country B has $6k per capita and 7% growth then country B will automatically be richer than country A in 2100, that's just stoopid.

Things change....

[Motul]

In the case of latin america tendencies indicate that such change is towards growing at similar rates of Asia, that's what im saying (add the difference in gdp per capita and you get my drift). Tendencies, which in most cases, are quite spot on

[seems]

You forget something Sir, while there are countries like Cambodia, Laos, Bangladesh, etc in Asia, there are also Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Brunei, Saudi, Qatar, etc. which are not included in that list... and you also exclude Spore...In the end, Asian, Latin American, and African are just too generalized to be labelled as each country is unique...

Originally Posted by Motul

How's this for math. According to the table (I excluded Singapore for obvious reasons, it's wealth gap with the rest of the region and proportionally minuscule population would inflate the numbers to an unrepresentative level, plus it's already considered developed).

Average Latin America GDP per Capita: $7,394
Average Asia GDP per Capita: $4,566

Expected Average growth Asia 2012 (countries in table): 5.8%
Expected Averge growth L.A. 2012 (countries in table): 4.6%

The difference in growth rate isn't abismal, while the difference in GDP per capita is quite considerable. Just because Asia grew way faster in the past, doesn't mean the trend will continue for eternity, GDP growth rates in both regions are actually equalizing faster than GDP per capita. What does this mean? that soon L.A. will be growing at rates very similar to Asia but with much higher gdp per capita., which assure a clear advantage in this field.

As a note, I only took countries in that table, which is not very representative, because while most Latin American countries are considered in it, many asian countries are not (Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, Cambodia, Laos, etc). If we were to consider all developing countries in Asia, it's GDP per capita would be reduced even lower in comparison to Latin America.

I will do a more comprehensive study later on including ALL developing countries in both regions so that we have a more clear result to compare.

[seems]

Sir, this is what I propose to look more than just the current condition and recent growth, but to economic transformation of a country... look South Korea has transformed into a major industrial country... Spore transforms itself from a port dependent country into a major financial center and has an ambition to be a regional center of biotechnology...

To those who read this thread, please look at how MANY ASIAN UNIVERSITIES CAN COMPETE WELL WITH WESTERN ONES in all versions of world universities ranking, you name it.... universities are sources of knowledge and innovation... look how big the budget allocated by the gov't of Spore, HK, Japan, SK, etc into education... look how Spore and SK education rank so high in PISA study...

Open our window of knowledge, the world doesn't revolve around us...

Originally Posted by Jonesy55

Anybody who takes current growth and projects it forward into infinity is deluded I'm afraid.

You can't simply say that if country A currently has $12k per capita and 5% growth while country B has $6k per capita and 7% growth then country B will automatically be richer than country A in 2100, that's just stoopid.

Things change....

[isakres]

This thread has turned into a Region vs Region fight thanks to stupidity.