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Old February 20th, 2008, 02:07 AM   #601
LordMandeep
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it matters some areas have all new hybrid buses while some have old buses.
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Old February 20th, 2008, 04:34 AM   #602
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KGB View Post
Perhaps you should look at current info....most of the TTC's bus fleet is less than 5 years old, and when the city takes delivery of its new buses this year, the fleet will be essentially all new.

And those "old" buses you were refering to, were actually completely rebuilt, so much different than if they had just been running since they were first built.




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Looks like your numbers are very outdated, and not in-line with today's reality. Unless you tell me the TTC has brought in hundreds of new buses of late to reduce the fleet's average age, you're a good 10 years behind the stats I'm finding in the papers. Rebuilding an old bus to force its life to be extended beyond its designed shelf life is certainly not something to be proud of, and is definitely not a permanent solution to the aging problem.

Even if the new orders of some 470 buses did come in per the article below, given the fleet is 1500-strong, the average age would not be able to move down to anywhere near 5 years. It's mathematically impossible.

TTC wants $136M to buy buses
'Desperate need' for 250 vehicles Commissioners vote tomorrow

15 July 2003
The Toronto Star

A "desperate" TTC trying to catch up from years of neglect is asking the city for $136 million to buy 250 new buses to replenish its aging fleet.

"There's really no backing off from that number," Rick Ducharme, chief general manager of the Toronto Transit Commission, said yesterday in an interview. "If we don't get it, then there will be definitely cuts in service.

"This is critical decision time."

The TTC's commissioners will meet tomorrow to vote on Ducharme's request and to get an update on streetcar line repairs, which create traffic jams every summer at key intersections.

About 65 per cent of the current streetcar rails are rated as fair to poor and, at some spots - marked with red flags overhead - streetcars must slow to 10 km/h because the track is so poor.

"The whole gridlock issue, the lack of funding, is catching up to us," said Ducharme. "There's two critical issues going on, the fixing of the track and the buses I have to buy."

A political emphasis on upgrading the subway system - largely due to the 1995 collision of two subway trains that killed three passengers - insulated it from budget cuts.

But that, in turn, led to neglect of streetcars and buses during the late 1990s, when both the city and province - which used to fund 75 per cent of the TTC's capital needs - were looking to trim budgets.

The TTC was repeatedly forced to put off buying new buses, and today has one of the oldest fleets in North America. The average age of its 1,500 buses is 14.5 years, with some older than 24 years, compared to Ottawa's average age of 10 years, GO's nine, Mississauga's eight, and seven in the United States. In the U.S., the federal government is far more involved in local transit than Ottawa and funds bus renewal for cities.

A bus is designed to last about 12 years.


A TTC staff memo says the commission is "in desperate need" of the new buses "at the earliest possible date."

In 2001, the City of Toronto approved the purchase of 220 buses, 39 fewer than required, from Orion Bus Industries of Mississauga.

All those buses will be on the road by the end of 2004.

But because they bought fewer than needed in 2001, the TTC has fewer spare buses to call upon in case of breakdowns.

If approved, the next order of 250 low-floor, clean-diesel Orion VII buses would be delivered in 2005, replacing 25-year-old GMC New Look buses and 18-year-old Flyers.

"Because of the budget crunch, they forced us to back off and get the 220," said Ducharme. "I warned them back then all you're doing is pushing it back a year or two. You can't do that again. We're going to need 250 ... because it's very clear there are no extra buses. We're cutting ourselves very tight even with that number."

Councillor Howard Moscoe, TTC chair, said he expects his fellow commissioners to approve Ducharme's request, although he can't be sure where the money will come from. The city would be on the hook for it unless it can convince the province and Ottawa to split the bill three ways.

"We can't run service without buses," said Moscoe. "We managed to extend the life of our buses beyond what is reasonable. We're running buses that are beyond 24 years old. There comes a point where you can only stretch them so far. "I have faith that somebody, somewhere will come through for us in the end. Beyond that kind of hope, what else can we do?"

As for the streetcars, new technology means rails laid today last 15 years, 10 years longer than before, and streetcar noise is substantially reduced. Moscoe said the TTC can only lay new track, however, when the city is rebuilding streets.

But the amount of work scheduled to be done over the next five years is three times the work that was done in the '90s.

"We've accelerated (improvements) dramatically from what we were doing in the '90s," said Ducharme. "We've fallen behind and you can't look back as to who should or shouldn't have done it. Money was tight and decisions were made and we are where we are."

But he cautioned the work will never really end.

"Everyone keeps thinking 'state of good repair,' that someday you get there. You have to understand, you never get there. That's what state of good repair is: preventive maintenance. If you back off, then you're in real trouble."
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Old February 20th, 2008, 05:33 AM   #603
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Looks like your numbers are very outdated, and not in-line with today's reality.
No, it looks like you're the one who's outdated (the 2003 date on your cut and paste might be a big hint you should have noticed).

The TTC already recieved 482 new buses by 2005...another 230 in 2006...can't remember how many in 2007, and is due to recieve about 500 more this year.

Not only are they receiving enough to retire old buses, it will leave them with about 100 extra for added service.




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Old February 20th, 2008, 08:39 AM   #604
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Originally Posted by KGB View Post
No, it looks like you're the one who's outdated (the 2003 date on your cut and paste might be a big hint you should have noticed).

The TTC already recieved 482 new buses by 2005...another 230 in 2006...can't remember how many in 2007, and is due to recieve about 500 more this year.

Not only are they receiving enough to retire old buses, it will leave them with about 100 extra for added service.




KGB
From a report for Transport Canada in March 2005, "the TTC's average fleet age is now 14 years, and the average age of TTC high floor buses is 18 years."

http://www.tc.gc.ca/Pol/en/Report/Transit/Transit2.htm

That 14 year figure whould include all the 2001 Orion bus orders (220 buses) as all those vehicles were delivered by end of 2004. In addition, the 14 year figure would include the first 17 deliveries of the 2005 Orion option extension order. A further 249 buses were delivered in 2005. For the Feb. 05 Orion order which included hybrids and diesels, a total of 230 buses were delivered in 2006 with 100 more in 2007. Another extension resulted in 220 more hybrid deliveries in 2007.

2002-6 Annual Reports (with fleet size and order information)
http://www.toronto.ca/ttc/schedules/...m#annualreport

The 14 year figure should have been end of 2004. With a fleet size of 1502 at 2004-end, the total vehicle years is 21,028 (1502 x 14).

At end of 2005 there were 1491 buses, so add 1491 vehicle years.
At end of 2006, there were 1543 buses, so add 1543 vehicle years.

Total vehicle years as at end of 2006 = 24,062. Divide that by the # of buses = 1543. Average bus age = 15.6 years.

So even with the additional buses from new orders, the average bus age still is a good 15 years.

Your 482 figure by 2005 likely relates to the Orion order from 2001 (1 delivered in 2002, 100 delivered in 2003, and 119 delivered in 2004) and subsequent option extension in 2005 (17 delivered in 2004, 237 delivered in 2005, and an extra 12 delivered in 2005) which totals 486 buses. All these deliveries have been factored in my calculation.

Your 230 figure matches the Feb. 05 Orion order, whereby 150 hybrids and 80 diesels were delivered in 2006. A further 320 were slated to come online in 2007, but given the fleet is 1500-strong, could this order drastically reduce the average age from 15.6 to 5? Perhaps you can calculate how that is mathematically possible.
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Old February 20th, 2008, 03:20 PM   #605
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hkskyline, look at the dates you post and look at the order dates referred to by KGB.

Your article: 2005.

KGB's quote indicates 230 buses new in 2006, 500 buses to come in 2008, that's half the fleet right there, plus another quantity in 2007, which you found to be 320, that brings the total closer to 2/3rds of the fleet, add that to the delivery that arrived by 2005 and the whole fleet has been replaced. It's called "chronology" and "basic mathematics". This replacement plan has been on the TTC's "to-do" list and long-term capital budget for a decade. After this year, the budget is expected to finally go down a little, making room for streetcar replacement.
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Old February 20th, 2008, 04:15 PM   #606
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Here's hoping that the new buses are all Orion VII NEXT GENERATION buses. Their design is so much nicer than the standard Orion VIIs.

Also, is the TTC still planning on getting articulates in the next couple of years? I was chatting with a bus driver a few weeks back, and he was saying that they have halted the articulated purchases.

Hate to say this, but between the improved service, new bus looks (with more comfortable seats), and more, Mr. Giambrone has done a good job with the TTC.
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Old February 21st, 2008, 02:54 AM   #607
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So even with the additional buses from new orders, the average bus age still is a good 15 years.

Whatever you say hairdo.




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Old February 21st, 2008, 03:00 AM   #608
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Originally Posted by TRZ View Post
hkskyline, look at the dates you post and look at the order dates referred to by KGB.

Your article: 2005.

KGB's quote indicates 230 buses new in 2006, 500 buses to come in 2008, that's half the fleet right there, plus another quantity in 2007, which you found to be 320, that brings the total closer to 2/3rds of the fleet, add that to the delivery that arrived by 2005 and the whole fleet has been replaced. It's called "chronology" and "basic mathematics". This replacement plan has been on the TTC's "to-do" list and long-term capital budget for a decade. After this year, the budget is expected to finally go down a little, making room for streetcar replacement.
My article comes from 2005, but I used the disclosures from the TTC's annual reports from 2004-6 to come up with the orders and then calculate how they would impact the average age. I find the annual reports to be far more reliable as they have been reviewed by the independent auditor. In fact, the numbers would be very much reliable.

Nowhere from the annual reports do I see an expected delivery for 500 buses. The annual reports indicate 140 new deliveries in 2008.

I see nothing wrong with using a 2005 article quoting a likely 2004 year-end number and then calculating the present average age based on fleet numbers that are publically available and disclosed year-by-year.

You can see the sources for yourself and do the math. If I made a mistake then feel free to inform me.
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Old February 21st, 2008, 03:38 AM   #609
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I see nothing wrong with using a 2005 article quoting a likely 2004 year-end number and then calculating the present average age based on fleet numbers that are publically available and disclosed year-by-year.

I see plenty wrong with it....obviously. he he

There's nothing wrong with using current info either. Unless you are alergic to reality?

Here's an article a little more current....



Quote:
TTC to announce better bus, streetcar service
Posted: February 13, 2008, 12:25 PM by Kelly Grant
Hall Monitor

The Toronto Transit Commission plans to unveil $22-million in improvements to bus and streetcar service tomorrow, the TTC’s chairman says.
“It is quite impressive. There are major service improvements across the city,” Adam Giambrone said today.
The TTC has already announced it will add 400 extra drivers to its staff and 500 new buses to its fleet this year, largely to relieve overcrowding and to extend or modify several bus routes.
At tomorrow’s 10 a.m. announcement, the TTC will detail exactly where it plans to beef up service and which routes it intends to extend or alter, Mr. Giambrone said.
“There have been a whole bunch of requests for changes of bus routes that have been made over the last couple of years that we have been unable to deal with,” he said. “So now there will be changes to routes.”
The $22-million for new service is already included in the TTC’s proposed 2008 operating budget.
The service improvements will take effect next week.

—Kelly Grant, National Post



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Old February 21st, 2008, 04:31 AM   #610
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I see plenty wrong with it....obviously. he he

There's nothing wrong with using current info either. Unless you are alergic to reality?

Here's an article a little more current....








KGB
Yet it will not reduce the average age of the bus to the 5 years you alluded to, even after the hundreds of new buses from the 2001 and 2005 orders still kept the average age at 15.

Besides, the 2008 deliveries haven't taken place in full yet, so the average age will not even affected at all until end of 2008 numbers are compiled. These are future deliveries to be executed this year.

Given at the end of 2006, which is where my numbers come from if you read my calculations, these 2008 deliveries have not taken place, hence they would not be considered. Obviously 2006 is before 2008.

So after all this, you're trying to compare my 2006 year-end average with your hypothetical average assuming at the end of 2008 all these buses will be delivered. Take a look and see whether you're comparing apples to apples.

The 2007 Annual Report has not yet been issued, hence there is no way an accurate average can be computed as final deliveries cannot be confirmed. There's a very obvious logical error trying to mix actual numbers with estimates to compute an average.

Looks like you can't do math too well.
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Last edited by hkskyline; February 21st, 2008 at 04:38 AM.
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Old February 21st, 2008, 04:59 AM   #611
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hkskyline, by 2007, over 1000 of the 1500-something fleet is 5-6 years old or younger. Even if you assume the rest of the 500 or so in the fleet are 30 years old, the average would be 13 years today, not over 15 today as you mistakenly claim, and a year from now, the age will be in the neighborhood 3 years with the 500 new buses. The math is very clear on this. The replacement orders' quantity are not in dispute, are they? You should back down, you've been proven wrong.
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Old February 21st, 2008, 05:07 AM   #612
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Oh fer christ's sake.

There appears to be so many flaws in your logic, it's hard to tell where you went wrong. You aren't aware of how many new buses there are, and obviously haven't factored in that the old buses are retired, and logically no longer affect the "average".




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Old February 21st, 2008, 05:13 AM   #613
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You should back down, you've been proven wrong.
Fat chance...he will do what he normally does...continue tap-dancing around it until we all go nuts.




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Old February 21st, 2008, 05:25 AM   #614
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Here's hoping that the new buses are all Orion VII NEXT GENERATION buses. Their design is so much nicer than the standard Orion VIIs.

I believe all 510 of the TTC's diesel-electric hybrid order will be Next Generation. Not sure about the regular diesels. I think production of the Next Generations started the middle of last year.




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Old February 21st, 2008, 07:16 AM   #615
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I know little about the TTC fleet so I will avoid that argument instead I have a question.
How many articulates does the TTC have and are any of the buses arriving this year articulated?
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Old February 21st, 2008, 07:55 AM   #616
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hkskyline, by 2007, over 1000 of the 1500-something fleet is 5-6 years old or younger. Even if you assume the rest of the 500 or so in the fleet are 30 years old, the average would be 13 years today, not over 15 today as you mistakenly claim, and a year from now, the age will be in the neighborhood 3 years with the 500 new buses. The math is very clear on this. The replacement orders' quantity are not in dispute, are they? You should back down, you've been proven wrong.
The number I got is as of end of 2006, which is the most recent Annual Report is available. Even end of 2007 numbers cannot be computed since that Annual Report has not yet been released.

Only 230 new buses came online in 2006, whereas from the order expectations, 320 more buses would come online in 2007 if all goes well. 249 new buses came online in 2005. So you are right to point out that in the past 5 years, over 1000 new buses have been brought into service. However, the average age will only drop drastically if all these new buses replaced old buses, meaning it's a 1:1 swap. 1 new bus would result in 1 bus being removed from the system. I doubt that has happened in reality, which is why I don't forsee a huge drastic drop in the average bus age.

Even if the best case scenario does happen, that a 1:1 swap does occur, there still remains another 500 buses from the old fleet that need to be phased out in order for the average age to drop anywhere near 5 years. So far I haven't seen any evidence that there is a 1:1 swap to make this best case scenario anywhere near true. The best case scenario would see the average age drop to about 7.8.

In fact, my 15 includes keeping the old buses, as there is no evidence so far to suggest how much bus scrapping is taking place, hence it is logically flawed to assume the best case scenario without appropriate evidence. That mathematical computation is still correct.

You can't remove the old buses from the computation if they're still there. And the computation including the new buses shows that the average will drop, but the pool of aged buses will still keep the average fairly steady. You need a number of years for these new additions to flush out into the average numbers. That's what the mathematical average is about. It never rises as quickly as the population and it falls slowly in the opposite direction.

Time to hit the books again to learn about the concept of an average.
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Old February 21st, 2008, 07:57 AM   #617
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Oh fer christ's sake.

There appears to be so many flaws in your logic, it's hard to tell where you went wrong. You aren't aware of how many new buses there are, and obviously haven't factored in that the old buses are retired, and logically no longer affect the "average".




KGB
There "appears" or there "are"? Your uncertainty and inability to back up your statement contradicts with your assertion that there are "so many flaws" yet it's "hard to tell where it went wrong".

If people can't rely on the number of new buses being brought into service according to statistics published on the TTC website and audited by external auditors, then I wonder how much credibility we should put in your statements.

Perhaps you can shed some light on the retirement rates to make some sense as to why the old buses should be taken out of the picture?
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Old February 21st, 2008, 08:18 AM   #618
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See...I told you he will tap-dance.

Dude...OF COURSE they retire old buses as new ones arrive. New buses are to replace old buses....not to increase the size of the fleet. By the time the 500 newest buses arrive this year, the entire fleet will only be about 100 buses more than it was before, to cover added service.

You're the self-proclaimed math expert...if the TTC has already received over a thousand new buses over the past 5 years or so, and if they didn't replace old buses, then the fleet should be 1000 buses bigger. Is it? No, it isn't. The fleet required always remains around 1500-1600.

New buses are arriving constantly...old buses are constantly being retired. Relying on years-old annual reports doesn't help the current situation, especially when so much is happening.




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Old February 21st, 2008, 08:39 AM   #619
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KGB: Point taken

Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
So you are right to point out that in the past 5 years, over 1000 new buses have been brought into service. However, the average age will only drop drastically if all these new buses replaced old buses, meaning it's a 1:1 swap. 1 new bus would result in 1 bus being removed from the system. I doubt that has happened in reality, which is why I don't forsee a huge drastic drop in the average bus age.
Well, what do you know about Toronto? It was a 1:1 swap, it is the main point of the entire program.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Even if the best case scenario does happen, that a 1:1 swap does occur, there still remains another 500 buses from the old fleet that need to be phased out in order for the average age to drop anywhere near 5 years. So far I haven't seen any evidence that there is a 1:1 swap to make this best case scenario anywhere near true. The best case scenario would see the average age drop to about 7.8.
It's 1:1. Like I said, the average at 2007 would be 13 or less (likely less, I'm not sure all the remaining 500 buses not yet replaced are 30 years old). The last 500 are coming in this year, and that will bring the age down to closer to 3, not 5.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
In fact, my 15 includes keeping the old buses, as there is no evidence so far to suggest how much bus scrapping is taking place, hence it is logically flawed to assume the best case scenario without appropriate evidence. That mathematical computation is still correct.
No it isn't, because you fail to take into account that the TTC fleet size is not changing as these buses come in - check the fleet size records in all years for the past decade. The fleet size actually goes down, not up, as they are forced to retire some buses that cannot be rebuilt before there are any replacements for them. You didn't bother to check the fleet sizes per year, so what are you basing your ASSUMPTIONS on for keeping the old buses which has never been the case and simply a foolish act on your part? In 2007, worst case, it would be around 13. Over 15, no, only in your imagination with bad math.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
You can't remove the old buses from the computation if they're still there.
True. But they're not there in reality, so yes, you not only CAN remove them, you MUST remove them for your calculations to be anywhere near accurate.
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
It never rises as quickly as the population and it falls slowly in the opposite direction.
Sure it does, if you get rid of all the old buses as the TTC is in fact doing! Do your research.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Time to hit the books again to learn about the concept of an average.
Try to learn the concept of quantity and rate and ratio, smart guy.
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Old February 21st, 2008, 12:32 PM   #620
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Originally Posted by KGB View Post
See...I told you he will tap-dance.

Dude...OF COURSE they retire old buses as new ones arrive. New buses are to replace old buses....not to increase the size of the fleet. By the time the 500 newest buses arrive this year, the entire fleet will only be about 100 buses more than it was before, to cover added service.

You're the self-proclaimed math expert...if the TTC has already received over a thousand new buses over the past 5 years or so, and if they didn't replace old buses, then the fleet should be 1000 buses bigger. Is it? No, it isn't. The fleet required always remains around 1500-1600.

New buses are arriving constantly...old buses are constantly being retired. Relying on years-old annual reports doesn't help the current situation, especially when so much is happening.




KGB

If you check the 2006 Annual Report, your argument falls apart immediately. The bus fleet actually increased from 1491 in 2005 to 1543 in 2006, and is different from the 2004 and 2003 figures as well. So if it was a buy and retire program strictly speaking, then there is no way the fleet size could've had that variability over the past few years when there were new deliveries year after year.

In fact, I'd be very surprised if it's a 1:1 swap. What likely happened was they retired some of the very old buses, and kept some of the less old ones in place (ie. buy 500, retire 300, keep 200). Hence, the fleet increased and was able to expand service. Otherwise, had every new bus resulted in a retirement, there is no way the TTC can expand service as the total number of new buses would stay exactly the same. This "reality" you are proclaiming doesn't match what is actually happening on the news.

There goes your points ...



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KGB: Point taken

Well, what do you know about Toronto? It was a 1:1 swap, it is the main point of the entire program.

It's 1:1. Like I said, the average at 2007 would be 13 or less (likely less, I'm not sure all the remaining 500 buses not yet replaced are 30 years old). The last 500 are coming in this year, and that will bring the age down to closer to 3, not 5.

No it isn't, because you fail to take into account that the TTC fleet size is not changing as these buses come in - check the fleet size records in all years for the past decade. The fleet size actually goes down, not up, as they are forced to retire some buses that cannot be rebuilt before there are any replacements for them. You didn't bother to check the fleet sizes per year, so what are you basing your ASSUMPTIONS on for keeping the old buses which has never been the case and simply a foolish act on your part? In 2007, worst case, it would be around 13. Over 15, no, only in your imagination with bad math.

True. But they're not there in reality, so yes, you not only CAN remove them, you MUST remove them for your calculations to be anywhere near accurate.
Sure it does, if you get rid of all the old buses as the TTC is in fact doing! Do your research.



Try to learn the concept of quantity and rate and ratio, smart guy.
Time to do some research before making your points.

Fleet Sizes per 2006 TTC Annual Report
2006 - 1543
2005 - 1491
2004 - 1502
2003 - 1489
2002 - 1468
2001 - 1480
2000 - 1468

So your argument that the fleet size is actually going down is not valid at all. In fact, the trend points to an increasing direction, and as of 2006 there were more buses than ever before.

In fact, my calculations incorporated the 2005 and 2006 fleet sizes to compute the 2006 year-end average. In case you don't remember what I wrote, here it is again :

Quote:
Originally Posted by hkyksline
The 14 year figure should have been end of 2004. With a fleet size of 1502 at 2004-end, the total vehicle years is 21,028 (1502 x 14).

At end of 2005 there were 1491 buses, so add 1491 vehicle years.
At end of 2006, there were 1543 buses, so add 1543 vehicle years.
Quite easy to understand how new orders are affecting the fleet size movements over the years. Hence. it is logically incorrect to blindly remove all the old buses from the aging analysis. There definitely is no 1:1 swap to retire the old fleet. The numbers tell that quite balatantly. Try to learn the concept of differences and ratios.


I'm not at all surprised at this kind of reaction. Full of inconsistencies and weaknesses. I suggest learning more and researching from what the TTC has published to better understand how their fleet modernization is structured, and to learn some more math. This should be basic stuff.
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