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Old November 6th, 2011, 04:36 AM   #1
azn_man12345
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When will the Skyscraper Boom end?

There has never been as good of a time as now to be a skyscraper enthusiast. The amount of skyscraper construction everywhere in the world has never been seen before. Cities everywhere are getting a new tallest after new tallest. When will it end?

Personally, I think around 2014 (Shanghai Tower completion), the great boom will begin to slow down. In 2016, the boom will climax with the completion of such skyscrapers like Ping'an IFC, Chow Tai Fook Center, Lotte Town Jasmil, and go out with a bang with the completion of Kingdom Tower in around 2017.

After that, the World's Top 50 will remain relatively unchanged for about a decade and a half before it'll all start again...
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Old November 6th, 2011, 11:04 AM   #2
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I dunno when exactly but I think this boom has to collapse sooner or later. Countries like China, Arab Emirates and other Asian countries build supertalls without sufficient demand. Sooner or later they will just find themselves without enough money to continue this boom because they didn't get any tenants for their towers. We can already see this happening in Dubai with the Pentominium and other towers being cancelled. In Dubai the boom is ending already now, in countries like China or Saudi Arabia, it is about to end in a few years
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Old November 6th, 2011, 06:44 PM   #3
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It will depend on the economies of individual countries. It might end in one area, and continue in another.
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Old November 7th, 2011, 02:06 AM   #4
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As long as the world population and the economy grows, also the skyscrapers will grow.

Maybe even after the population-peak the construction of highrises will go on, if the world sees that smaller, more compact (=dense) cities offer the best available solution for urban living AND the nature, as suburban style of house destroys the landscape more.
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Old November 7th, 2011, 02:34 PM   #5
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It will depend on the economies of individual countries. It might end in one area, and continue in another.
Building Skyscrapers is rather a question of psychology than economy. Very wealthy and high developed countries like Japan, Germany or France hardly build any skyscrapers, while pretty poor and less developed countries build dozens of them. In fact, the probability of skyscrapers seems to be much lower in very high developed countries as hardly any building with a height of more than 100-150m makes sense in matters of economy and old, wealthy countries are self-confident enough not to need such status symbols.
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Old November 7th, 2011, 06:59 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Malyan View Post
Building Skyscrapers is rather a question of psychology than economy. Very wealthy and high developed countries like Japan, Germany or France hardly build any skyscrapers, while pretty poor and less developed countries build dozens of them. In fact, the probability of skyscrapers seems to be much lower in very high developed countries as hardly any building with a height of more than 100-150m makes sense in matters of economy and old, wealthy countries are self-confident enough not to need such status symbols.
Toronto has more highrises going up than any city in North America, with Mexico City and New York trailing. I wouldn't categorize Toronto as a poverty stricken third world city. The economy is solid, and people are moving here; thus we build. They are not "status symbols", they are required.
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Old November 8th, 2011, 11:14 AM   #7
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The skyscraper boom is just in the run. We won't see any sort of end from now on, as it'll proof to be #1 way of creating dense urban cores, the preferred way of living for the majority of mankind. I'm not too fond of that, but I think that's the process we're running through. Once we're able to really use resources from outer space this will even increase heavily, allowing us to build loads of several-mile-high towers wherever we want, even on the surface of alien planets.

If you're further interested in such visions of the future, please check: www.futuretimeline.net
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Old November 9th, 2011, 03:13 AM   #8
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Toronto has more highrises going up than any city in North America, with Mexico City and New York trailing. I wouldn't categorize Toronto as a poverty stricken third world city. The economy is solid, and people are moving here; thus we build. They are not "status symbols", they are required.
Though toronto may have some buildings being constructed currently, New York has many more significant skyscrapers either under construction currently or planned for construction.
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Old November 9th, 2011, 04:17 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanto View Post
I dunno when exactly but I think this boom has to collapse sooner or later. Countries like China, Arab Emirates and other Asian countries build supertalls without sufficient demand. Sooner or later they will just find themselves without enough money to continue this boom because they didn't get any tenants for their towers. We can already see this happening in Dubai with the Pentominium and other towers being cancelled. In Dubai the boom is ending already now, in countries like China or Saudi Arabia, it is about to end in a few years
In Mexico its just starting
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Old November 9th, 2011, 04:51 AM   #10
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In Mexico its just starting
I'm hoping that Brazil and Australia are too.

Also countries to watch - Indonesia and India
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Old November 9th, 2011, 05:36 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by UsingAComputer View Post
Though toronto may have some buildings being constructed currently, New York has many more significant skyscrapers either under construction currently or planned for construction.
Your contention is correct if you're only counting 300m+ buildings U/C. If we're discussing anything over 100m U/C, Toronto is #1 on the continent and 3rd globally.
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Old November 9th, 2011, 08:27 AM   #12
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Well, they are all part of the boom, and they are all going up because they are needed, not as some sort of frivolous exercise to impress anyone. In established cities, that is not the basis of building highrises.
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Old November 9th, 2011, 09:14 AM   #13
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Your contention is correct if you're only counting 300m+ buildings U/C. If we're discussing anything over 100m U/C, Toronto is #1 on the continent and 3rd globally.
Definitely, Toronto's boom is unmatched in the developed world right now in terms of sheer numbers. Toronto does not have any towers over 300m under construction, though. It doesn't make economic sense to do so there, or anywhere for that matter. Why would you waste all that money unless you just want to impress someone aesthetically?

But as long as all the countries in the world are vying for attention, massive amounts of money will be wasted on these skyscrapers. Look at Dubai, ground zero for the madness. It is in effect bankrupt. The Saudis seem content to pour their extra billions into real estate for now. Look for a downturn in construction to happen in China soon. The real estate market is just beginning to turn there this quarter. We won't likely see another round of supertalls in the mature cities for a while.

On the other hand, tall buildings will continue to be built as long as people move to cities, which should be unabated for the next 40 years at least. That is when the construction will really slow.

But in the short term, it has to do with the markets in each country as well as the culture of each country.
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Old November 9th, 2011, 09:51 PM   #14
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China and other developing economies are building their prestige projects now rather than later when it will be a much slower, convoluted and expensive process. Basically as the economy matures the restrictions and prices (not to mention worker's pay) will also go up - in short this is a window to get your country's future-proofed infrastructure built while labour, import and materials are still cheap.

Cost to build London's new (world's biggest) airport is currently $80 billion, for Beijing the equivalent cost $3.65 billion. These country's know the score, Beijing has just announced yet another airport to start work this year that will handle 300 million passengers annually - cost 'only' $15 billion. Of course the city does not handle 400 million passengers p/a - but one day, it will.


The world's biggest dams, bridges, rail stations, airports, stadia, HSR network, highway network, metros, CBDs, even connecting up the Yangtze and Yellow rivers - are all being built now in a flurry of activity. After this stage, it will be just as slow and bureaucratic to get things done as anywhere else. The unsaid thing is also increased democracy and rights as the country rises economically- people will one day be able to nimby away entire national projects (in UK many airport expansion plans were cancelled due to villagers, forcing the govt to think of a floating island airport at much greater cost). This is already being seen in China, from the emergence of 'nail houses' (residents homes who have refused to move that stick out like nails on contruction sites, and who invariably garner a fortune in settlements in the end), to the current rethink of the maglev projects as residents fear radiation (as yet unproven, but with large local opposition if the lines are proposed near them).

Last edited by the spliff fairy; November 9th, 2011 at 10:06 PM.
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Old November 9th, 2011, 11:10 PM   #15
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Japan's high-rise building has collapsed from 90s.
Next is smart city,underground city,sea city,space elevator.
I'm sick of the town of Concrete.I want it to town like this.
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Old November 10th, 2011, 12:40 AM   #16
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Japan's high-rise building has collapsed from 90s.
Next is smart city,underground city,sea city,space elevator.
I'm sick of the town of Concrete.I want it to town like this.
Smart city is okay.
But underground city? Sea city?
Then life's gonna be boring and gloomy.
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Old November 10th, 2011, 06:18 AM   #17
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Melbourne too is on the boom train, I'd say. This is from CTBUH

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Originally Posted by CULWULLA View Post
image hosted on flickr

image hosted on flickr
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Old November 10th, 2011, 07:34 AM   #18
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Old November 10th, 2011, 08:06 AM   #19
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Smart city is okay.
But underground city? Sea city?
Then life's gonna be boring and gloomy.
Please stop stalking.This is the third time.
This is why Japanese people do not like neighbors.

「Fools and smoke love heights.」
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Old November 10th, 2011, 11:26 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by japanese001 View Post
Japan's high-rise building has collapsed from 90s.
Next is smart city,underground city,sea city,space elevator.
I'm sick of the town of Concrete.I want it to town like this.
Thats beautiful!!!
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