Ecomonic Growth Thread | "Ethiopia middle income in 10 years time" - UNCTAD

[Simfan34]

Some simple and easy reforms that I think will help:

• Allow for the full ownership of land, and provide for its legal protection and a codified eminent domain system
• Set up a stock exchange, so that the many shares being sold can be sold in a regulated and open forum
• Partially privatize certain government-owned businesses (25% at most) to allow for a market influence and response to management decisions
• De-monopolize and deregulate the telecommunications and domestic aviation industries to allow for competitiveness, the reduction of costs, and the improvement of services.
• Allow for the creation of a public, non-governmental anti-corruption agency
• Try to encourage the revival of the "rist" cooperative farming system to aid the movement from subsistence to commercial farming
• Have the birr float on the open foreign exchange markets, as opposed to the current "auction" system.

Nothing needs to be built to do the above, except for the stock exchange building.

[DZman]

Addis Ababa, November 17, 2011 (Addis Ababa) - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said Ethiopia is likely to become one of the middle income countries during the next ten years.UNCTAD here on Thursday made official the 2011 report on Least Developing Countries (LDCs).


Director Division for Africa, Least Developed Countries and Special Programmes with UNCTAD, Taffere Tesfachew said Ethiopia has the opportunity to join the list of middle income countries during the reported period.


Taferre said the government has been investing a significant amount of resource on infrastructure development, which helps to extricate the country from poverty within short period and also create favorable situation for the private sector.


The Director mentioned the efforts of the government to bring about structural change in the economic sector in particular to transfer the agriculture led economy to industry.


Taferre expressed belief that such efforts enable the country to register tangible changes during the coming ten years.


Report on LDCs has been made official since the past 40 years, he said, adding, the number of LDCs has increased to 48 from the then 25.


South-South cooperation is getting strengthened and gives opportunity to developmental government as it focuses on infrastructure and capacity building.


The relation between the least developed and developed countries has also a positive side as development support provided to the developing countries enables to bring about change in the economic sector.

You Heard It Here First

http://www.ena.gov.et/EnglishNews/20...v11/154390.htm

[Kata-2]

another joke; worse yet, the source is ENA.

[Ahadu]

Originally Posted by Kata-2

another joke; worse yet, the source is ENA.

Kata-2
Anta Qorqoro ras,
Before you jump to conclude, Google it. Isn't that easy?

Here is more direct from the source - search for Ethiopia inside .....& of course eat your SHABIA heart out.

http://www.unctad.org

[Kata-2]

Originally Posted by Ahadu

Kata-2
Anta Qorqoro ras,
Before you jump to conclude, Google it. Isn't that easy?

Here is more direct from the source - search for Ethiopia inside .....& of course eat your SHABIA heart out.

http://www.unctad.org

I just don't get why woyane buffoons would call shabia anyone who is against the Monkey at 4Killo.

[abesha]

Hi all,

Didn't see this clip posted anywhere. Sorry if it's a repeat!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15739706

[Simfan34]

I think we did, it's from their Impact program, right?

Nice to see you back.

[abesha]

I have no doubt it'll happen.

The GNI per capita went from $130 to $390 in the past decade (current $) so it exactly tripled. If the same can be achieved in the next decade, and if we stop the devaluation of the currency, then it's done. We don't even need to grow any faster than now, just a question of maintaining the growth rate and controlling inflation.

It would be done even faster if the government stops its retarded attitude and liberalizes telecoms, media, aviation, etc. It doesn't even have to open these sectors for foreigners, just local investment.

[èđđeůx]

Very nice. Ethiopia getting back to growing in double digits in a few years (even next possibly?) is destined to happen. The video mentioned inflation being a problem at around 2:30, get that down and you're set! I imagine the recent droughts have caused inflation to skyrocket like it has in Kenya (where it's over 19% now compared to 5.6% in Dec '10). Hopefully that issue is solved.

[African Lion]

Originally Posted by abesha

I have no doubt it'll happen.

The GNI per capita went from $130 to $390 in the past decade (current $) so it exactly tripled. If the same can be achieved in the next decade, and if we stop the devaluation of the currency, then it's done. We don't even need to grow any faster than now, just a question of maintaining the growth rate and controlling inflation.

It would be done even faster if the government stops its retarded attitude and liberalizes telecoms, media, aviation, etc. It doesn't even have to open these sectors for foreigners, just local investment.

Good optimism. We will still hate Woyane

[abesha]

I didn't see this posted anywhere. It dates from early November.

Below is just the Economy portion of it - full article in the link below. This article is from Horizon Ethiopia. The Economist seems to have updated its forecasts which I'll post next.

Economic Outlooks

EIU’s forecasts a GDP growth of 8% in 2011-12, owing to better agricultural output, and 9% in 2012-13 following increased foreign direct investment, improved power supply and a recovering global economy, especially in Europe, a destination to some of Ethiopia’s exports such as flower. Although this fails short of the governments planned rate of 11 to 15% per year growth for 5 years (the life of the growth and transformation plan (GTP)), it compares favorably with the global projected GDP growth of 3.3% in 2012 and 4.0% in 2013.

Yet, trade deficit is expected to run at 2.2% in 2011-12 and 2.6% of GDP in 2012-13. However, the report states, these figures have been revised from the initial estimates of 5.3% and 5.6% for the two fiscal years, a clear indication of optimism on the economic outlook of the country. Given that GTP has been highly criticized by the World Bank and IMF as overly ambitious (citing Ethiopia’s lack of recourses, both manpower and funds), this optimism from EIU surly is watched skeptically by the international community.

For the delight of Ethiopians, EIU expects inflation to rapidly decline in the next two fiscal years, to 15.7% in 2012 and 9.7% in 2013, from the current estimate of 33%. The raging inflation, perpetrated by rising global food prices and the devaluation of the Birr, will be reversed owing to weak global demand, lowered fuel prices and decline in global commodity prices. This, according to the report, will give room and prompt the Ethiopian governments to further devalue the Birr, hence curbing declining domestic commodity prices and increase export competitiveness. This would also have a positive impact on the country’s electricity exporting efforts.

However, the report paints a few scenarios that have the potential to dent the positive outlook. One is the skepticism that, following the highly state-led development approach outlined in the GTP, reduced and restricted involvement of the private sector could limit economic growth. For example, despite expectations that power supply will improve and foster growth in the agro-industry and industrial sectors, current and future laws might restrict private engagement in those sectors. Further, a rapidly expanding government will also have to broaden its domestic revenue source, such as added tax, that would put it in a collision course with the an already disconcerted private sector.

Another factor that could hamper growth would be a war between the two Sudans, which would jeopardize the country's cheaper source of oil. Having to choose sides or even dragged into the war, could endanger the supply of Sudanese Oil and Ethiopia might have to turn to more expensive oil from the Middle East. Consequently, domestic prices would inflate and any expected economic gain could be reversed. Likewise, exports could also be hurt, albeit marginally, where demand from a war torn Sudan would decline.

http://horizonethiopia.com/index.php...-of&Itemid=183

I sure hope the projections on inflation come true! People are really really suffering from the madness of the past 2-3 years.

[abesha]

Source: http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?...a+and+forecast

Text report from December: http://country.eiu.com/FileHandler.a...67397&mode=pdf

[yosef]

Interesting, it looks like the growth projections are going back up somewhat. And Wow.. inflation to nose-dive down to 9.7, I'll believe it when I see it.

[Celdur]

And you have to bring the birth rate under control, there is way too many people in Ethiopia for the current economy to handle, CIA estimates 90 million for 2011, that's an extreme population growth, unless you grow your economy at +10% for decades poverty will never be eliminated.




Oh yeah, who am i? just a long time lurker, and for some reason or another i like Ethiopia, and would like to visit when i have the chance. I'll be happy to answer any questions about my corner of the world or anything else.

[Yoniii]

Originally Posted by Celdur

And you have to bring the birth rate under control, there is way too many people in Ethiopia for the current economy to handle, CIA estimates 90 million for 2011, that's an extreme population growth, unless you grow your economy at +10% for decades poverty will never be eliminated.

Family planning policies are needed, at least until the economy catches up, but it will also come neutrally as the country urbanizes. The birth rates in the capital for example, is well below the countrys average of ~ 3.8% (2011 est.).

[popa1980]

Originally Posted by abesha

I have no doubt it'll happen.

The GNI per capita went from $130 to $390 in the past decade (current $) so it exactly tripled. If the same can be achieved in the next decade, and if we stop the devaluation of the currency, then it's done. We don't even need to grow any faster than now, just a question of maintaining the growth rate and controlling inflation.

It would be done even faster if the government stops its retarded attitude and liberalizes telecoms, media, aviation, etc. It doesn't even have to open these sectors for foreigners, just local investment.

My prediction is that the service sector will start being liberalised in the 2nd half of this decade. Im actually in favour of gradual liberalisation rather than Jeff Sachs type "shock therapy".

[xJamaax]

Originally Posted by abesha

I have no doubt it'll happen.

The GNI per capita went from $130 to $390 in the past decade (current $) so it exactly tripled. If the same can be achieved in the next decade, and if we stop the devaluation of the currency, then it's done. We don't even need to grow any faster than now, just a question of maintaining the growth rate and controlling inflation.

It would be done even faster if the government stops its retarded attitude and liberalizes telecoms, media, aviation, etc. It doesn't even have to open these sectors for foreigners, just local investment.

130?When was that by the way?1992?

With the current population, liberalization will be so beneficial. You can start a business and make more money there.

[abesha]

Originally Posted by xJamaax

130?When was that by the way?1992?

With the current population, liberalization will be so beneficial. You can start a business and make more money there.

2000. The GDP/capita was cut in half between 1990 and 2000!

Popa, I also agree with gradual liberalization when it comes to foreign entry. But privatization of telecoms, media and aviation is overdue. Local investors are not allowed in those sectors (well, not completely), and that's really damaging to the country.

[Ras Siyan]

Good news, Go Ethiopia!

[jegna]

Ye Woyane comedy is endless. Woyane run Ethiopia right now is the second poorest country in the world and they are telling us in ten years it is going to be middle class country!!!