Property Trend 2012

[newlaunchsingapore]

as we coming to end of 2011, what will the property trend be in 2012?

my personal opinion..
1) property prices like stock is driven by demand and supply.. Our population just crossed 5m and targeted to hit 6.5m.
2) Influx of foreigners and international events will lead to more investors coming to singapore
3) with 60% loan on second property, house owner now do not have the need to "fire sale"...

however, will we have a sustainable growth with the europe crisis and government measure?

[cnud]

The last measures seemed to take many by surprise. But from what I gather, it could be their 'pre-emptive' strike to warn off rapid rise in property price once the Euro crisis is again rescued by QE and US egaged in recovery growth path.

The negativity is there, the magnitude although is not yet 100% known, is already taken into account..

[SonofaDude]

Here's another opinion.

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Cooling measures bite market segments differently
by Ong Kah Seng
04:45 AM Dec 16, 2011

The year is ending on a sombre note for the private residential market, with severe cooling measures announced earlier this month imposing an additional buyers' stamp duty (ABSD) of 10 per cent on purchases by foreigners.

While prospective buyers, including locals who may be affected by the 3 per cent ABSD, are expected to remain on the sidelines in the next few months, not all private homes will suffer the same impact from the measures.


Landed homes seen resilient

Landed homes will likely be the most unscathed, while speculative products, such as shoebox apartments, will likely experience weakened buying interest. The difference is underpinned by product heterogeneity, foreigners' participation and also the financing capabilities of the buyers' for each product type.

Landed homes are expected to enjoy resilient buying interest next year, as the buyers are predominantly locals who are the least affected by the cooling measures while the supply of such homes is limited. However, non-landed residential properties in the prime districts, which are fairly exclusive, may be more affected as foreigners account for a large share of buyers.


Shoeboxes to be worst hit

Shoebox apartments, particularly those smaller than 500 sq ft each, have gained popularity from 2009 but the success is set to come to a halt next year. There is less motivation to consider buying smaller-sized apartments, particularly when average prices moderate. The typical buyer who finds the shoebox unit acceptable during the price run-up from 2009 to this year may no longer prefer such a home or investment if there are better and larger offerings.

Even before the latest cooling measures were imposed, various developments with shoebox units had been scheduled for completion next year, meaning there will be increased competition between sellers. Although owners will generally hold shoebox units, especially those who had purchased this year and want to avoid paying the hefty sellers' stamp duty, there are some who bought in 2009 and last year who have enjoyed capital appreciation and are considering selling.

Moreover, if a Singaporean can at most hold two private residential properties to avoid paying ABSD for his new purchase, there is less incentive to purchase a smaller-sized apartment. The buyer will likely wish to exercise his limited option on buying a larger or standard-sized unit. There may also be some shoebox home owners who hope to relinquish their units in order to go for more attractive larger sized apartments if prices ease next year.


Suburban condo interest not excessively weakened

The suburban condominium market, with fairly homogenous offerings, will likely see moderated buying interest due to economic challenges. However, as the buyers are mostly HDB upgraders or those owning fewer than two private properties, interest is unlikely to be excessively weakened by the ABSD.

Although the economic slowdown will severely affect job stability, there are still home seekers working in the "evergreen" or fairly recession-proof industries, such as oil and gas, education or statutory boards. They may have continued confidence in financing their homes and appropriately-priced suburban condominiums can appeal to this profile of buyers.

This year has been intense for the private residential market as prices jumped notwithstanding the cooling measures implemented in January that included sellers' stamp duties of as high as 16 per cent. While there is less justification for this month's cooling measures given that economic conditions had moderated late in the year, the latest measures are likely to achieve the best effect in reining optimism in market sentiment.

The dichotomy in the market means that owners of properties which are expected to see weaker buying interest should strive to hold on and emerge from the uncertainty. Property owners can also take a longer-term view by consenting to competitive rental rates, as ultimately there may be opportunities to renew leases at higher rents or even resell at better prices, should the economic and intrinsic property market fundamentals eventually improve.

[jacky lemon]

Just wanted to wish everyone a happy new year. Wishing you and your loved ones good health, prosperity and success in 2012.

[Arcachon]

www.straitstimes.com Published on Jan 3, 2012

The Straits Times
Cooling measures may boost rental market

Additional buyers' stamp duty for foreigners a likely cause; locals may also wait for prices to come down

By Cheryl Lim

THE rental market could brighten for landlords this year as home buyers defer buying units in the wake of the recent cooling measures, say analysts. They believe the larger pool of tenants might stabilise the rental market or even drive a pick up of up to 5 per cent in rents over the next 12 months. These analysts' comments are a contrast to earlier expectations that rents were set to fall as a large supply of completed units come onto the market this year. Analysts had predicted a possible softening of rents this year due to the new private and public homes that will be completed within the next few months. But some consultants now say that foreigners considering buying might be persuaded to head to the leasing market, after being put off by the recent introduction of the additional buyers' stamp duty of 10 per cent. '(The measures) effectively increase their (financial) risks tremendously if they buy and... get reassigned elsewhere or lose their jobs (within the first two years),' said Mr Alan Cheong, head of research at Savills Singapore. 'Leasing has always been seen as a faster and easier decision to make as compared to buying a property because of the lower commitment level and the smaller amount of money required upfront,' said OrangeTee managing director Steven Tan. In the third quarter of last year, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) rental index of non-landed homes showed increases compared with that of the previous quarter, although the index rose at a slower pace in the central regions and suburban areas. While demand from foreigners and expatriates is expected to be the main driver of the residential leasing market next year, the local factor cannot be ignored. There may be some locals who have sold and want to rent, and wait until they can buy at a cheaper price. There may also be locals who are now unwilling to sell their home given the weaker market. Mr Cheong suggested that the expected dip in rents is now unlikely, with the effects of the measures partially balancing it out. URA figures indicate that 9,584 apartments were completed between the third quarters of 2010 and 2011, with rents rising 6 per cent during that period. 'This suggests that rental demand was substantially greater than supply. Thus, barring external shocks or policy changes that affect immigration, rentals should at least be stable in 2012,' he said, noting that the rate of immigration is still strong and may remain so for years to come. Market watchers add that global economic uncertainty will also have an impact on rents. Hardest hit will be the high-end sector, said Mr Cheong, with rents possibly experiencing a marginal decline of up to 5 per cent. New arrivals of foreign white-collar workers may have more constrained rental budgets, said other consultants. 'Rental budget cuts will lead tenants to look at cheaper alternatives so projects in mid-prime or well-located city fringe or suburban locations may be in greater demand,' said Mr Ong Teck Hui, head of research and consultancy at Credo Real Estate.

Even though there have been concerns that the large number of shoebox units set to come onto the market may be difficult to rent out, the recent measures may mean that these smaller units may turn out to be popular among tenants as well, said analysts, because of the lower overall rent price that such homes would offer. cherlim@sph.com.sg
Copyright © 2011 Singapore Press Holdings. All rights reserved.
Printed from straitstimes.com http://www.straitstimes.com/print/Mo...ry_751180.html

[cnud]

Don't analyse lah. These analysts change their opinion faster than I change underwear..

[Arcachon]

You are right, they don't have to pay for wrong info. They are pay for all type of info be it right or wrong. It is the investor that have to understand what info is right or wrong. For those investor who cannot understand just need to follow the herd instinct.

Definition of 'Herd Instinct'
A mentality characterized by a lack of individuality, causing people to think and act like the general population.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/...#axzz1iUGf2IaL

[cnud]

Most analysts aiming to buy when price down mah. So try their luck loh. In the meantime they scoop up the deal when fear grips owners..

Greed lures one to buy while fear entices one to sell.

Be fearless, and less greedy..

[Arcachon]

If the U.S. Debt Were a Household Budget

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewr...es/103116.html

[SonofaDude]

19 January 2012

Government releases two residential sites
estimated to yield 805 housing units in January 2012

To provide home-buyers and developers with more choices for private housing, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) and Housing Development Board (HDB) have launched two residential sites at Hillview Avenue and Upper Serangoon View/Upper Serangoon Road for sale by public tender today.

The two land parcels are launched for sale under the Confirmed List of the 1st half 2012 (1H2012) Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme. Together, these sites will yield about 805 units, as part of the total 7,000 residential units to be launched under the GLS Programme for 1st half 2012.

Land Parcel at Hillview Avenue
The land parcel, with a site area of about 1.26 ha, is located within an established residential estate in the west region. The site can potentially yield about 370 private housing units and is near the future Cashew and Hillview MRT Stations. These stations are part of the Downtown Line 2 Mass Rapid Transit system that will provide residents with convenient access to the city centre when it is completed in 2015.

Land Parcel at Upper Serangoon View/Upper Serangoon Road
The land parcel, with a site area of about 1.24 ha, is located in the north-east region and is in close proximity to Hougang MRT Station and Bus Interchange. Earmarked for an executive condominium development, the site can potentially yield about 435 units and is easily accessible via nearby TPE, KPE and CTE.

Other Details
Tender for the residential sites at Hillview Avenue and Upper Serangoon View/Upper Serangoon Road will close at 12 noon on 6 March 2012 and 1 March 2012 respectively. Selection of the successful tenderer will be based on the tendered land price only.

[shctaw]

Happy Chinese New Year.

[Arcachon]

Bernanke giving Ang Pow again, this coming Wed 25/01/2012, Huat Ah.



Fed Begins an Effort to Remove All Doubt on What It’s Doing

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/23/bu...l?ref=business

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve, which does not like to surprise financial markets, has worked unusually hard to prepare the public for the changes to its communications policies that it plans to introduce on Wednesday.

Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, is focusing on improving Fed communications with the economy out of crisis mode.
While the changes could make it easier for the Fed to move ahead with another round of asset purchases later this year, by helping to explain why the economy needs additional stimulus, officials have indicated that any such plans remain on the back burner, and may stay there so long as the economy continues to recover.

Indeed, the Fed is able to focus on communication in part because it is no longer devoting all of its energies to crisis management. These are improvements that the Fed’s chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, has waited five years to make, reflecting his vision for how the Fed should operate in periods of calm, too.

The centerpiece of the new policies is a plan to publish the predictions of senior Fed officials about the level at which they intend to set short-term interest rates over the next three years — including when they expect to end their three-year-old commitment to keep rates near zero. The Fed also will describe the expectations of those officials for the management of the central bank’s vast investment portfolio.

The first forecast will be published after a two-day meeting, starting on Tuesday, of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets policy for the central bank. The committee also is considering the publication of a statement describing the Fed’s goals for the pace of inflation and level of unemployment, which it has never formalized.

“Our moves toward greater openness in recent years have made our policies more effective and helped the public understand the Fed’s actions better,” John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in a recent speech.

Any bolder steps, he said, “will depend on how economic conditions develop.”

This is not the first time the Fed has tried to get past crisis management. And after several false starts in which it overestimated the strength of the recovery, officials have been careful to insist that they still stand ready to do more if necessary.

The economy, after all, is merely muddling along. While economists calculate that fourth-quarter growth was relatively strong, most forecasters expect a much slower pace of growth in the new year. The Fed’s own forecast, which will be updated Wednesday, anticipates growth of up to 2.9 percent. Most other guesses are lower.

Unemployment also remains a deep and prevalent affliction. Almost 24 million Americans could not find full-time work in December; the unemployment rate has ticked downward in part because many people have stopped looking for work.

Senior Fed officials have also sought to focus attention in recent months on the depressed condition of the housing market, arguing that other parts of the government can and should do more to help homeowners and revive sales. Some Fed officials have advocated that the Fed buy large quantities of mortgage-backed securities, which could further reduce interest rates on mortgage loans.

But several Fed officials have said in recent speeches that they are hesitant to support new efforts to improve growth, because they think monetary policy has exhausted most of its power, and because they are worried about inflation.

“Steady even if unspectacular growth accompanied by inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent justifies some reluctance to change, in either direction, the F.O.M.C.’s accommodative policy,” Dennis P. Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said in a speech this month.

Mr. Lockhart added a standard caveat for Fed officials, that the persistence of high unemployment required the Fed to keep thinking about doing more.

“Now is not a time to lock into a rigid position,” he said.

But Fed officials have made clear that high unemployment is an insufficient cause for additional action, at least as long as inflation remains near 2 percent.

Sandra Pianalto, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said in a recent speech that the economy would not create enough jobs to return unemployment to normal levels for “perhaps even four or five years.”

“Sooner, of course, would be better for everyone,” she said. “But I want to be on a path toward full employment that
doesn’t create an inflation problem down the road.”

The communications changes that the Fed plans to announce Wednesday mark the furthest advance in a 20-year-old campaign to increase the transparency of its decision-making as a means to increase the impact of its policies. As recently as the early 1990s, the Fed still did not regularly announce the decisions reached at its policy meetings. Now it plans to start publishing predictions about the outcomes of future meetings to guide investor expectations.

The Fed disclosed its plans this month when it released a description of the committee’s most recent meeting, in December. On Friday it followed up by releasing the templates that will be used to publish the predictions.

The predictions themselves could have a mild effect on markets. The Fed said this summer that it would maintain short-term rates near zero through middle of 2013, at least. Mr. Bernanke has since underscored the words “at least,” and analysts expect the forecast will show that most members of the committee intend to hold rates near zero into 2014.

Pushing back that timetable will tend to reduce interest rates, but the impact is likely to be minor, as asset prices already reflect an expectation that rates will not rise before 2014.

“In policy terms, this is a historic change,” Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients. “In practical terms, however, the change isn’t going to have any major impact.”

A version of this article appeared in print on January 23, 2012, on page B3 of the New York edition with the headline: Fed Begins an Effort to Remove All Doubt on What It’s Doing.

[SingaporeCity]

Hi guys, we have a new facebook group PropertyTalk & Lifestyle Singapore, a platform to bring all property enthusiats together to network, share and discuss latest property trends, launches, knowledge, and experiences. Feel free to join us at the group HERE!

PropertyTalk & Lifestyle Singapore: http://www.facebook.com/groups/170564546380585

[cnud]

Anyone noticed how many ads were placed in ST today for new launches? I think more than 20..

[Arcachon]

Originally Posted by cnud

Anyone noticed how many ads were placed in ST today for new launches? I think more than 20..

There is still money to be make for developer, demand is still strong. Bank interest rate too low to put money in the bank, inflation rate is above bank interest rate. Anyone with the right mind will buy real estate. Wait till uncle and aunt get to know their deposit is evaporating in the bank. HDB should build 50,000 unit a year instead of 25,000 unit to cool demand, you can sell first and deliver 6 year later, there will still be people happy to buy.

[cnud]

5 years is already a long time to wait..

[Arcachon]

Originally Posted by cnud

5 years is already a long time to wait..

I waited for almost 10 years to go into PC.

[Arcachon]

Stock markets can expect to receive a boost from a second huge European Central Bank liquidity injection, according to Lakefield Partner’s Bruno Verstraete, who says another 1 trillion euros ($1.32 trillion) will be available for banks at a quasi-free interest rate on February 29.

At the rate the World is printing money, money in the bank should increase or decease in value your guess is as good as mine.

CM6 on the way, quick go and buy......

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46366751

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46322553/

Huat Ah...........

[Arcachon]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46252167/

"The advanced economies seek to inflate away their massive debt by exporting inflation to the emerging world. The net effect is a massive financial tsunami that has potential to sweep over the emerging economies – and, ultimately, the developed economies as well."

In China they have quantitative tightening (QT), in Singapore we have CM. Look like $650k is a bit low after 29 Feb 2012 printing of money. Next target $750K for HDB 5I and $1,635,000 for 2 Bedroom @ Southbank

[DC33]

Better keep your SB.

Originally Posted by Arcachon

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46252167/

"The advanced economies seek to inflate away their massive debt by exporting inflation to the emerging world. The net effect is a massive financial tsunami that has potential to sweep over the emerging economies – and, ultimately, the developed economies as well."

In China they have quantitative tightening (QT), in Singapore we have CM. Look like $650k is a bit low after 29 Feb 2012 printing of money. Next target $750K for HDB 5I and $1,635,000 for 2 Bedroom @ Southbank