Bay Area Retail

[Cal_Escapee]

Originally Posted by fieldsofdreams

No wonder why Old Navy covered up the northeast part of their flagship store... It'll be good to see both Levi's and Old Navy coexist in one prime spot indeed. The next question is: what would become of the future-vacant Levi's store on Stockton and Post?

Considering Old Navy parent Gap was THE place to buy Levis back when THE Levis were 501s (and before Gap had their own brands).

[fieldsofdreams]

Originally Posted by Cal_Escapee

Considering Old Navy parent Gap was THE place to buy Levis back when THE Levis were 501s (and before Gap had their own brands).

So basically, Old Navy, Levi's, Dockers, and Gap are one brand with different names... And based right on Battery Street close to The Embarcadero. I finally got the connection.

Moving on to a related topic, which Bay Area malls do you think are the most -- and least -- successful, and why?

[JoshuaSantos]

Valley Fair, highest revenue per sqft (almost the highest in the US) and a 500k sqft planned expansion planned sometime this decade. Across the street from Santana Row.

Originally Posted by fieldsofdreams

So basically, Old Navy, Levi's, Dockers, and Gap are one brand with different names... And based right on Battery Street close to The Embarcadero. I finally got the connection.

Moving on to a related topic, which Bay Area malls do you think are the most -- and least -- successful, and why?

[fieldsofdreams]

Originally Posted by JoshuaSantos

Valley Fair, highest revenue per sqft (almost the highest in the US) and a 500k sqft planned expansion planned sometime this decade. Across the street from Santana Row.

I've been to Valley Fair myself, and it's a large two-story, high-end shopping center, only to be rivaled by Stanford Shopping Center in Palo Alto. Is Westfield in SF a good example of a successful shopping center too?

[Cal_Escapee]

Originally Posted by fieldsofdreams

Is Westfield in SF a good example of a successful shopping center too?

America's Most Profitable Malls
June 26, 2009

Using data from Green Street Advisors, an investment research firm in Newport Beach, Calif., that specializes in publicly owned real estate companies, U.S. News identified malls in which the retail economy is relatively healthy. While bargain shopping is obviously popular, the nation's most profitable shopping centers generally don't rely on discounters. Instead, they tend to feature chains with a strong brand identity, like Nordstrom, Abercrombie & Fitch, Apple, and Anthropologie. Since it's all about real estate, location is vital: The best malls tend to be in densely populated areas or tourist hotspots. And it sure helps if local residents are affluent.

The data we analyzed includes sales, occupancy rates, and quality grades for about 650 of America's biggest shopping centers. All of these properties post average sales of about $420 per square foot, and the average occupancy rate is 92 percent. That earns an A- grade. The 10 malls at the top of the list perform much better, with sales well above $600 per square foot and occupancy rates of 94 percent or higher. And each earns an A+ from Green Street for its performance and the quality of its tenants. Here's where shoppers are still spending money:

Ala Moana, Honolulu, Hawaii. (Occupancy rate: 95 percent*; sales per square foot: $1,125).

Fashion Valley Mall, San Diego, Calif. (99 percent; $810*).

Forum Shops at Caesars, Las Vegas, Nevada. (100 percent; $1,400*).

Westfield Garden State Plaza, Paramus, N.J. (95 percent; $702).

Mall at Millenia, Orlando, Fla. (94 percent*; $1,000).

The Mall at Short Hills, Short Hills, N.J. (94 percent*; $1,000*).

Queens Center, Elmhurst, N.Y. (98 percent; $876).

Roosevelt Field, Garden City, N.Y. (96 percent; $810*).

Westfield San Francisco Centre, San Francisco, Calif. (95 percent; $675). The parking stinks, but this high-end complex located two blocks from Union Square—the biggest urban shopping center in the western United States—enjoys a great location and strong merchants like Nordstrom and Bloomingdales. A recent renovation makes it a pleasant stop in one of America's top destination cities.

Scottsdale Fashion Square, Scottsdale, Ariz. (95 percent; $618).

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/...ofitable-malls

[Cal_Escapee]

Originally Posted by fieldsofdreams

So basically, Old Navy, Levi's, Dockers, and Gap are one brand with different names... And based right on Battery Street close to The Embarcadero. I finally got the connection.

Not exactly. Gap Inc. owns Gap Stores, Baby Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic. Levi Strauss, maker of Dockers as well as Levi jeans, is an entirely separate company, created in San Francisco in the Gold Rush (their HQ is also just off the Embarcadero but the other end, at the base of Telegraph Hill) making pants for miners.

But at one time (1970s) Gap stores carried Levi jeans (and other clothes by makers other than themselves) and was usually the cheapest place in town to buy them.

[fieldsofdreams]

Originally Posted by Cal_Escapee

Not exactly. Gap Inc. owns Gap Stores, Baby Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic. Levi Strauss, maker of Dockers as well as Levi jeans, is an entirely separate company, created in San Francisco in the Gold Rush (their HQ is also just off the Embarcadero but the other end, at the base of Telegraph Hill) making pants for miners.

But at one time (1970s) Gap stores carried Levi jeans (and other clothes by makers other than themselves) and was usually the cheapest place in town to buy them.

Ah interesting. I didn't know that Levi's was sold at Gap stores before, and I thought that the two are related. I knew that the two are completely different companies, but I never knew that part of history before. But I'm happy to see that both Gap and Levi's are based right here in the San Francisco Bay Area where I live.

[Cal_Escapee]

Both images: https://plus.google.com/101486823698...10/about?hl=en

If you watch much PBS TV in the Bay Area, you often see "This program brought to you by the Walter and Elise Haas Fund . . . ."

And then of course, there is the Haas School of Business at Berkeley.

See:

THE HAAS LEGACY / How one family's generosity and commitment to civic life are transforming the Bay Area

The Haas's are the descendants of Levi Strauss and their money comes from blue jeans.

[JoshuaSantos]

Originally Posted by Cal_Escapee

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/...ofitable-malls

That info is from 2009. The info below is more recent:

"Westfield Valley Fair, formerly named and known as Valley Fair, is an upscale indoor shopping mall in Silicon Valley owned by the Westfield Group. It is located at the corner of Winchester and Stevens Creek Boulevards, straddling the border of San Jose and Santa Clara, United States. The eastern portion of the mall (including Nordstrom and Macy's women) is located in San Jose, and the western portion (including Macy's Mens & Home and Sports Authority) is located in Santa Clara.
Westfield Valley Fair is one of the largest malls in Northern California, and is directly across the street from another large retail development, Santana Row. It has the highest-sales volume in the state with $809 per square foot[2]. The shopping center consists of 194 stores, a seventeen-outlet food court, nine restaurants, and is anchored by two Macy's stores and Nordstrom."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westfield_Valley_Fair

[Cal_Escapee]

He asked if SF Centre was also a successful mall and things haven't changed so much in 3 years as to change the fact that the answer is an unequivocal YES. Further, those rankings were not based only on sales per square foot only but also things like vacancy rates of stores and a subjective "quality grade".

I'm not interested in a "my mall is better than your mall" contest. SF Centre is not even comparable in that it's a mall sitting in the middle of a much larger shopping area of the city. But no one can argue with the assertion that it is successful.

[fieldsofdreams]

Originally Posted by Cal_Escapee

He asked if SF Centre was also a successful mall and things haven't changed so much in 3 years as to change the fact that the answer is an unequivocal YES. Further, those rankings were not based only on sales per square foot only but also things like vacancy rates of stores and a subjective "quality grade".

I'm not interested in a "my mall is better than your mall" contest. SF Centre is not even comparable in that it's a mall sitting in the middle of a much larger shopping area of the city. But no one can argue with the assertion that it is successful.

That's so true. I just wonder what makes Westfield malls here in the Bay Area are much more successful than those owned by either Simon or Macerich. I mean, Simon-owned malls (e.g. Santa Rosa Plaza, Stanford Shopping Center, NewPark Mall) are great malls, but Westfield malls are like the cream of the crop. Is it possible for the Macerich-owned malls (I.e. The Mall at Northgate) to replicate the successes by Westfield?

And no, I'm not aiming for "my mall is better than yours". I'm just interested in mall dynamics: aside from location (of course), how come certain malls here are more successful than others?

[Cal_Escapee]

I'm not sure there's anything really comparable to San Francisco Centre in the Bay Area. There is in other cities but not here that I know of. Did you notice the piece I posted snarkily mentioned "the parking stinks"? I mean where's there another mall of this size with NO PARKING in northern CA? I can't recall the details but I assume Westfield simply outbid the competition when a developer was sought to redo the old Emporium store and/or build the original half of the mall (where Nordstrom is). Being an Australian company with an international perspective, they may be a little better able to see unconventional potential.

[fieldsofdreams]

Originally Posted by Cal_Escapee

I'm not sure there's anything really comparable to San Francisco Centre in the Bay Area. There is in other cities but not here that I know of. Did you notice the piece I posted snarkily mentioned "the parking stinks"? I mean where's there another mall of this size with NO PARKING in northern CA? I can't recall the details but I assume Westfield simply outbid the competition when a developer was sought to redo the old Emporium store and/or build the original half of the mall (where Nordstrom is). Being an Australian company with an international perspective, they may be a little better able to see unconventional potential.

Basically, that development is essentially prime development, in which it is better accessed by foot and transit. Westfield San Francisco is at a sweet, premium spot wherein you get the best of many worlds: tourists, commuters, office workers, you name it. Parking around that area is already at a premium that adding more parking at the mall premises simply couldn't work because there is already a massive parking lot across Bloomingdales on Mission Street which takes up half of a city block to begin with. Plus, adding more parking to an already tight and busy corridor could hamper traffic flow in the area, thus Westfield developed it as it was to begin with, with better management, shops, restaurants, and amenities. I'm very happy to say that Westfield is integrated in my commute pattern between Novato and San Francisco that it is my preferred choice to stop and eat on my way to school or home.

[JoshuaSantos]

Originally Posted by fieldsofdreams

That's so true. I just wonder what makes Westfield malls here in the Bay Area are much more successful than those owned by either Simon or Macerich. I mean, Simon-owned malls (e.g. Santa Rosa Plaza, Stanford Shopping Center, NewPark Mall) are great malls, but Westfield malls are like the cream of the crop. Is it possible for the Macerich-owned malls (I.e. The Mall at Northgate) to replicate the successes by Westfield?

And no, I'm not aiming for "my mall is better than yours". I'm just interested in mall dynamics: aside from location (of course), how come certain malls here are more successful than others?

It depends on the metric you are looking at. If you are looking at why the revenue per sqft is higher than other malls, than I think a key component is luxury retail, which people in the Bay Area (and NY) can better afford than other markets. That helps keep the revenue per SQFT higher. All the other malls you mentioned have less of a focus on this and don't have the supporting infrastructure to attract the luxury segment. Wesfield SF did a good job of even making the food court upscale and oriented towards a demographic that will spend more money. The remodel of the dome also looks phenomenal.

As for Valley Fair, they are all in on the luxury segment going forward. They are remodeling the current luxury wing they have right now to be even nicer and are putting in a flagship Burberry, Tag Huer, Wolford, and David Yurman (which will the first one in the Bay). Their next major expansion will be a second luxury wing with Neiman Marcus, Bloomingdales, and a direct connector to Santana Row's luxury block with Gucci, Tesla, etc.

I would also look at the Hillsdale Mall in San Mateo as another one that is relatively successful and ranks well in revenue per sqft and has a strong luxury component.

[Cal_Escapee]

Originally Posted by fieldsofdreams

there is already a massive parking lot across Bloomingdales on Mission Street which takes up half of a city block to begin with. Plus, adding more parking to an already tight and busy corridor could hamper traffic flow in the area, thus Westfield developed it as it was to begin with, with better management, shops, restaurants, and amenities. I'm very happy to say that Westfield is integrated in my commute pattern between Novato and San Francisco that it is my preferred choice to stop and eat on my way to school or home.

Are you familiar with the Market Street Place coming (soon I hope--like they've said they place to start site prep in December) in the next block (between 5th and 6th)?

Here's the best rendering (go to the page--you can make it much bigger, too big to post):


http://marketstreetplace.com/?page_id=20

This will have some parking (about 120 underground spaces as I recall) entered from Mission St. I attended the Planning Commission meetings on it and testified for it and the parking. At that time, it was hoped that one of the anchor tenants would be Target (the delay was too long--Target went to the Metreon instead) and I argued, as did others, that such a store sells some items that are just impractical to lug onto Muni (or even to lug a block down the street to the parking garage, which can be full anyway when there's a big event at Moscone). Somebody who is going to buy a new TV, say, would want to be able to drive to get it (I would use Zip car since I don't have a car in SF).

Since Target went elsewhere, they haven't said who will anchor this new "mall" but the idea has been to go somewhat downscale from the other nearby shopping and give Tenderloin and SOMA residents someplace to buy essentials and reasonably priced clothes and such.

[fieldsofdreams]

Originally Posted by Cal_Escapee

Are you familiar with the Market Street Place coming (soon I hope--like they've said they place to start site prep in December) in the next block (between 5th and 6th)?

Here's the best rendering (go to the page--you can make it much bigger, too big to post):

http://marketstreetplace.com/?page_id=20

This will have some parking (about 120 underground spaces as I recall) entered from Mission St. I attended the Planning Commission meetings on it and testified for it and the parking. At that time, it was hoped that one of the anchor tenants would be Target (the delay was too long--Target went to the Metreon instead) and I argued, as did others, that such a store sells some items that are just impractical to lug onto Muni (or even to lug a block down the street to the parking garage, which can be full anyway when there's a big event at Moscone). Somebody who is going to buy a new TV, say, would want to be able to drive to get it (I would use Zip car since I don't have a car in SF).

Since Target went elsewhere, they haven't said who will anchor this new "mall" but the idea has been to go somewhat downscale from the other nearby shopping and give Tenderloin and SOMA residents someplace to buy essentials and reasonably priced clothes and such.

Wait, Target? I thought Target will open at the Metreon as City Target (opening 10/14)... Opening another Target two blocks away will surely drive commercial prices down because of the strength of Westfield and other nearby shops, plus the fact that Mid-Market isn't complete as yet. So I think it will take more than just Target to make it alive and well. Has the City considered other stores to become an anchor tenant too? Plus, you're right about Zip Cars too: I think that new development should have adequate spaces for Zip Cars and electric vehicle charging stations.

[Cal_Escapee]

Originally Posted by fieldsofdreams

Wait, Target? I thought Target will open at the Metreon as City Target (opening 10/14)... Opening another Target two blocks away will surely drive commercial prices down because of the strength of Westfield and other nearby shops, plus the fact that Mid-Market isn't complete as yet. So I think it will take more than just Target to make it alive and well. Has the City considered other stores to become an anchor tenant too? Plus, you're right about Zip Cars too: I think that new development should have adequate spaces for Zip Cars and electric vehicle charging stations.

No, I tried to explain. Target was apparently first considering Market St. Place but the approval of that development got dragged out too long for them and they went to Metreon. More recently, JC Penney was supposedly looking at MSP but I think they decided not as well. But it's too great a location and building not to attract someone that will be positive for the area.

The "consideration" isn't up to the City. It's whoever the developer can sign. The City has approved the project (with the small amount of parking mentioned, mitigated by the developer), the fencing for the demolition of the existing buildings is up and said demo is supposed to start in December.

Regarding Zip cars. I didn't mean they should be there (although perhaps a couple should). I have 2 in the garage of my condo building. I meant that if I were buying something bulky in this mall, I would use one of them to drive over there and haul it home.

[fieldsofdreams]

Originally Posted by Cal_Escapee

No, I tried to explain. Target was apparently first considering Market St. Place but the approval of that development got dragged out too long for them and they went to Metreon. More recently, JC Penney was supposedly looking at MSP but I think they decided not as well. But it's too great a location and building not to attract someone that will be positive for the area.

The "consideration" isn't up to the City. It's whoever the developer can sign. The City has approved the project (with the small amount of parking mentioned, mitigated by the developer), the fencing for the demolition of the existing buildings is up and said demo is supposed to start in December.

Regarding Zip cars. I didn't mean they should be there (although perhaps a couple should). I have 2 in the garage of my condo building. I meant that if I were buying something bulky in this mall, I would use one of them to drive over there and haul it home.

So if neither Target nor Penney chose to locate at the MSP, what do you think would be the store that would grace the new shopping center? That area truly deserves redevelopment, and I'm looking forward to seeing the new Market Street Place built. And do you think that it will provide paid parking instead of free parking?

[Cal_Escapee]

I have no idea who will go there. My personal choice wouldn't be very popular with most folks around here (hint: starts with "W", ends with "-mart"). It's a store where I shop regularly in Tucson and get my cat litter for 1/4 the price at Safeway and my other shelf-stable groceries for substantially less.

A better possibility might be Kohl's.

You can play this game: Think of lower end multi-line retail that isn't already in the city. Once upon a time, that might have meant Sears but they are not expanding.

Another possibility could be a grocery store. There is supposed to be one a block or two away in the Tenderloin (which has none--it's close to a "food desert") but the building where that was supposed to go has been delayed. (Again, that darned "W" outfit could fill both needs). That could even mean Trader Joe's.

If they get desperate for a tenant, they could end up with something like Big Lots. I hope not. They could also go "outlet" and in that case it could be almost anybody.

I assume the parking will be free to customers (at least). There are many examples in the city of places that have paid parking but the stores served can wave the fee, usually for 2 hours. My own condo, which has retail on the ground floor, does that.

[fieldsofdreams]

Originally Posted by Cal_Escapee

I have no idea who will go there. My personal choice wouldn't be very popular with most folks around here (hint: starts with "W", ends with "-mart"). It's a store where I shop regularly in Tucson and get my cat litter for 1/4 the price at Safeway and my other shelf-stable groceries for substantially less.

A better possibility might be Kohl's.

You can play this game: Think of lower end multi-line retail that isn't already in the city. Once upon a time, that might have meant Sears but they are not expanding.

Another possibility could be a grocery store. There is supposed to be one a block or two away in the Tenderloin (which has none--it's close to a "food desert") but the building where that was supposed to go has been delayed. (Again, that darned "W" outfit could fill both needs). That could even mean Trader Joe's.

If they get desperate for a tenant, they could end up with something like Big Lots. I hope not. They could also go "outlet" and in that case it could be almost anybody.

I think I know the W chain you're referring to: the chain with a tag line that says "Always low prices. Always." Is that correct? Sounds like a downsized version of that (a.k.a. The Community Market) might be deployed instead of the full-fledged chain... But then again, maybe not that grocery chain.

I'm thinking of at least two ideas:

- Possible Dollar Store on the second floor and a grocery on the ground floor
- food court on the second floor and a clothing store on the ground floor (I.e. Forever 21, Uniqlo, Topman, Zara... You get the picture)

There are quite a lot of possible combinations, it will take me a long time to type them all here. What's important is this: what's the proposed square footage of the entire area in question?