Election 2012

[cameronrex]

Originally Posted by bgwah

Not really. MA, RI, IL, CA, VT, HI, and so on---all states more Democratic than WA---have had Republican Governors more recently than us. What's remarkable is that the Democrats have held onto the Governor's Mansion continuously for at least 32 years.

You are forgetting John Spellman, Republican governor from 1981-1985.

Still 27 years is a long time.

[bgwah]

Originally Posted by cameronrex

You are forgetting John Spellman, Republican governor from 1981-1985.

Still 27 years is a long time.

That's correct. I meant to say "32 years without electing one."

[Capitol Hill]

My sense at this early stage of the election cycle is that McKenna has not been strongly 'attached' with the Republican party in the minds of the voters. Romney will now have to tack back to the center to garner votes, but I believe his campaign is a lost cause in the state of Washington, which might actually help McKenna in a perverse way. If McKenna continues to run strong here, he might be able to convince the Romney campaign to keep out so the campaigns don't get co-mingled in the minds of the voters.

What I find noteworthy is we are also having a senatorial election this year, and there doesn't seem to be a strong candidate up against Cantwell.

[Matt the Engineer]

That brings up another point: this election might be decided based on the Presidential election. If Obama destroys Romney, fewer Republicans will bother showing up to the polls. If it's neck-and-neck, especially in WA, there will be a high turnout* on both sides.

* What do we say these days? High mailout?

[jessejb]

I think the successful narrative that McKenna is a centrist will harness enough crossover votes thru anti-Olympia sentiment alone to give him the governor's mansion.

[bgwah]

So it's the primary today.

Anybody but Darcy, please. PLEASE.

[mhays]

I'm going to impress people with my powers.... McDermott will win the house primary.

[bgwah]

Originally Posted by mhays

I'm going to impress people with my powers.... McDermott will win the house primary.

But who will get 2nd?

[mhays]

I've consulted my powers and that's both unclear and irrelevant.

[bgwah]

Looks like Inslee will get first place. Cantwell annihilated her opponent. Bob Ferguson got a majority. DelBene crushed Darcy Burner.

Great night! If you're a Democrat.

[mhays]

With the gov race, it's mostly about which party had more questions in the primary. I suspect the dems had more, including a house race and some Sea/King measures.

[Matt the Engineer]

The Stranger has been telling us that primaries with low turnouts always skew Republican. With Inslee's lead, it sure makes the whole first page of this thread look flawed and pessimistic. If he can lead* in a Republican-skewed** primary after not campaigning, I wouldn't be so quick to throw in the towel.

* ok, it's just the first drop, and anything can happen
** if the Stranger is right. I have personally done no research in this area.

[mhays]

Gov races have tended to skew left lately.

This one is pretty important for transit, general fiscal policy, etc. I'm a centrist on some things but transit alone is worth going Inslee all the way.

[bgwah]

Originally Posted by Matt the Engineer

The Stranger has been telling us that primaries with low turnouts always skew Republican. With Inslee's lead, it sure makes the whole first page of this thread look flawed and pessimistic. If he can lead* in a Republican-skewed** primary after not campaigning, I wouldn't be so quick to throw in the towel.

* ok, it's just the first drop, and anything can happen
** if the Stranger is right. I have personally done no research in this area.

We've only had the top two primary for two elections now. Both times the Democrats did better in the general than in the primary. But that's not a very big sample size.

[Capitol Hill]

From everything I've been following, I'm rather surprised by the Governor's race. I expected McKenna by 3-4% at least, and the November final to be a 49-51% , just no idea who would win in November.

DelBene and Koster will be an interesting race. Each has their strengths in the district, and glaring weaknesses as well.

Cantwell may as well put her money in the bank. She's not going to need to use much of it.

I'm surprised Gonzalez won a majority for Supreme Court. He suspected there might be some backlash do to his last name. It is refreshing that voters are above that.

I'm sensing that things would have turned out better for McKenna if he was running for Cantwell's Senate seat. A real nerd debate would be happening there. If he loses governor, the state Republican party will have their work cut out for them.

[alexjonlin]

Gonzales won due to a whopping 75% of the vote in King County, and my guess is that not a small part of that is due to the Stranger. Pretty sad that almost all rural counties went for Danielson despite the fact that he never really even campaigned.
Also, Greg Nickels came in third in the primary for Secretary of State. I wonder if he's now done running for elected office.

[Doomgoggles]

Originally Posted by alexjonlin

Gonzales won due to a whopping 75% of the vote in King County, and my guess is that not a small part of that is due to the Stranger. Pretty sad that almost all rural counties went for Danielson despite the fact that he never really even campaigned.
Also, Greg Nickels came in third in the primary for Secretary of State. I wonder if he's now done running for elected office.

It's because most voters don't know the names til they show up on the ballet. They don't realize Gonzoles isn't a border-hopping Mexican. He's a professional with a long career, and endorsed by BOTH McKenna and Inslee. They just voted for the non-Hispanic name. (I admit, I've done name-based voting in the past, but it's kinda silly.)

[Capitol Hill]

If you know NOTHING about either candidate, the responsible solution would be to not vote in that category.

Another thing I will never do is vote for a candidate who is unopposed.

[jiggawhat?]

OMG i have to comment. I cant stand Suzan DelBene's commercials. THEY ARE SO ANNOYING. "Its Suzan DelBene of course!". YUCK! Anyway, my vote would be for the other guy if I was a democrat. I am going for Mckenna for governor. Met him in Bellevue at the pancake corral and was very personable. Many business leaders in Bellevue have respect for the guy. Maria Cantwell will go on easily to win her senate seat...she has done a pretty good job. I just want to see a change in the government as a whole where they actually work for the people and not private interests.

[mhays]

...personable and bad for transit.