Fiscal Treaty referendum likely to be passed - polls

[odlum833]

Yet another opinion poll show a strong lead for the "yes" side

Poll shows nearly 40% of voters have yet to decide how to vote on Fiscal Treaty Referendum

Updated: 14:56, Thursday, 19 April 2012

A new opinion poll shows just under 40% of voters are undecided about how they will vote in the EU Fiscal Treaty Referendum at the end of May.

An Ipsos/MRBI poll in The Irish Times shows the Yes side ahead - by 58% to 42% - among voters who have made up their mind.

Voting in the referendum on the EU Fiscal Treaty will take place six weeks from today.

The poll on voting intentions was conducted among 1,000 voters around the country on Monday and Tuesday.

The results show that 30% said they would vote Yes, 23% would vote No, 39% are undecided, and 8% said they would not vote.

Since the last Irish Times poll on the issue last October, and before the treaty was agreed, the Yes side is up two points, the No side is down 24, and undecided and non-voters are up 22 points.

However, treaty opponents will note that the Yes side was even further ahead at the same point in the 2008 Lisbon referendum, which was rejected.
Meanwhile, the American Chamber of Commerce has called for a Yes vote in the referendum.

The group, which represents over 600 companies in Ireland, says the treaty is crucial for investment and will allow Ireland to continue to access the European market.

Representatives of PayPal, IBM, Bank of America and Microsoft all attended a news conference today to launch their campaign.

Chamber President Peter O'Neill said Ireland had suffered significant reputational damage over the past 18 months and he said a Yes vote would ensure that Ireland's strategic interest would remain at the heart of the EU.
The Government has launched its website to promote awareness of the referendum.

Every household is due to receive a copy of the treaty early next month, followed by an information note.

RTE

The Government has also launched a new website which provides (presumably unbiased) facts about the treaty.

http://www.stabilitytreaty.ie/

I reckon the "yes" side has a fairly unassailable lead unless something absolutely rediculous happens for the government between now and then.

[odlum833]

haha I take that back. That site is like a propaganda piece from the old soviet union. Completely biased. Check out the video. I could be wrong but I thought taxpayers money can not be spent under law by the government on biased propaganda in favour of one result.

[Catmalojin]

You're right odlum, that video on the site seems very one-sided to me. It's blatantly unconstitutional (under the Supreme Court's ruling in McKenna v An Taoiseach) to use public money to promote a particular side in any referendum or election.

Other parts of the site (such as 'The Treaty in Brief') seem fine, though.

[odlum833]

Sunday Times B&A Fiscal Treaty Poll

42% YES
27% NO
32% UNDECIDED

Excluding Undecideds

61% YES
39% NO


Steamrolling toward a "Yes" vote...that's my take on it...now let's see RTE's take

Poll shows voters do not understand Fiscal Treaty
Updated: 21:43, Saturday, 21 April 2012




More than half of voters say they do not understand the European Union Fiscal Treaty, according to a new opinion poll.


The Yes side is ahead in the polls

The Behaviour and Attitudes survey for tomorrow's Sunday Times also shows the Yes side is leading in the referendum.

The poll was taken among 946 voters around the State over seven days, ending last Tuesday.

It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3%.

Asked how they would vote, 42% said they would vote Yes, while 27% would vote No, and 31% said they do not know.

When the undecided voters are excluded, the Yes side is ahead by 61% to 39%.

Asked how well they understood the Treaty, just 6% said they understood it very well, while 12% claim to understand it quite well, and 27% say they understand it "to some extent".

But 23% say they do not understand it particularly well, and 32% say they do not understand it at all.

That means that 55% of voters do not understand the Treaty, with less than six weeks to go before polling day.

It's only 5 pages ffs

[thebig C]

Never in Irish History has the general public been better Educated and they have certainly never had better access to information..........and yet at every Referendum for possibly the past 10 years we are told that "the people don't understand the issues involved"!!

Well, either large portions of the population are lazy and can't be bothered to read a Newspaper or surf the internet, and want to be spoonfed information. Or, there is a cynical political motivation at play.......

I can just hear it now....."If you don't know....vote No". Utterly disingenuous! Many view ignorance as a guilt free excuse for voting No or not voting but in reality it illustrates nothing other then the vapidity of many today!

Rant over

C

[odlum833]

Jaysus...

Why Ireland's Labour party may regret a François Hollande victory in France


If Hollande is elected, the EU will have no choice but to make major changes to the EU fiscal pact that Labour has backed




François Hollande has promised to effectively rewrite that Merkel-Sarkozy pact.


When it comes to European politics, Ireland's Labour party ought to be very careful what it wishes for. At its annual conference in Galway last weekend, the party passed a motion backing the Socialist party's François Hollande in the upcoming French presidential elections. However, perhaps those who drafted the motion should think again about what an Hollande victory would do for them in the short-term.

Within weeks of round two of the elections, the Irish Republic will go to the polls. Voters will be asked to endorse the EU fiscal pact, a treaty that effectively ties member states into strict budgetary controls, capping public expenditure and ceding new financial powers to Brussels. The Labour party, as the junior coalition partner with Fine Gael, is firmly in the yes camp, urging the Irish electorate to endorse the treaty drawn up by the likes of Nicolas Sarkozy and the real power in Europe, Angela Merkel, at the start of this year.

During the French election campaign Hollande has promised to effectively rewrite that Merkel-Sarkozy pact. He wants a radical revision of the treaty to allow for an economic stimulus programme, using French and EU (read German) taxpayers' money to galvanise France's economy. Hollande's demand for a multibillion-euro stimulus appears at variance with the austerity measures sought by Merkel, the European Central Bank, the IMF and, of course, all those frustrated German taxpayers.

Some in the yes camp from the Fianna Fail side of the Dail (the main opposition party also backs the treaty, albeit with reservations) sense the danger for the coalition in Hollande taking power in Paris. Proponents of a no vote in Ireland will undoubtedly point out the contradiction of Labour endorsing both an EU austerity programme and France's Socialists. The no camp will argue that if Hollande is elected, the EU will have no choice but to make major changes to the treaty: Brussels and Merkel cannot simply ignore a huge European player like France. In those circumstances, the more sophisticated opponents of the latest EU reform programme will say to the Irish people: "Look, they are going to have to change this treaty anyway because of President Hollande, so let's say no and along with the French get a far better deal."

One Fianna Fail backroom figure expressed serious concern at the start of this week that the vote could be lost on 31 May. On top of general disillusionment with the present government brought on by the imposition of a €100 charge on homeowners to pay for local government, and the looming prospect of water charges (the latter announcement grossly mishandled by the environment minister this week), the chance that a change in France could mean in turn a change in treaty is a boost for the no side.

If Hollande does win on 6 May, there is no doubt the Socialist party's comrades among Labour's rank and file will be waving their red roses in celebration. There may be a few, however, in Labour's high command – particularly those who sit around the cabinet table in Dublin – who will be sleeping a lot less easier as they ponder whether the victory could help produce a damaging defeat in the referendum less than four weeks later.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog...ollande-france

Does this mean we will have to vote again after voting "yes" on May 31st!?

[JD47]

Originally Posted by odlum833

Jaysus...




Does this mean we will have to vote again after voting "yes" on May 31st!?

I will not be voting again after the first vote. I am sick of hearing about it. Its getting annoying and stupid now.

[Catmalojin]

A bit more on François Hollande (front page of today's Irish Times):

French presidential candidate wants treaty reopened

RUADHÁN Mac CORMAIC in Paris, MARY MINIHAN and HARRY McGEE

Thu, Apr 26, 2012

THE LEADING candidate for the French presidency, François Hollande, has laid out plans to add new elements to the European Union fiscal treaty but left the door open to a compromise if he wins the election.

Mr Hollande, who leads President Nicolas Sarkozy in opinion polls 10 days before the run-off, said if elected he would not ratify the treaty unless a deal was agreed on measures to promote jobs and economic growth.

He also indicated that the result of Ireland’s referendum should not be taken for granted.

The treaty, which will be voted upon on May 31st, obliges member states to keep budget deficits and public debts within tight limits.

“There will be a renegotiation,” Mr Hollande said. “Will the treaty be changed? I hope so. Or another treaty arranged? That is up for negotiation. But the treaty, as is, will not be ratified.”

Mr Hollande noted that three countries had already ratified the pact, but added: “We don’t know the result of the [Irish] referendum. And you know, at times Ireland has been capable of saying No.”

The socialist candidate, who won the first round of the election last Sunday, said if elected on May 6th he would write to EU governments to propose four new elements to boost growth.

He also called for a financial transaction tax levied by like-minded countries to help fund youth and education projects and a more efficient use of EU regional development funds.

While endorsing the centrepiece of the stability treaty – an obligation to write a balanced-budget rule into national laws – Mr Hollande said budget discipline alone would not bring about recovery. “Budgetary responsibility? Yes. Austerity for life? No,” he said.

Concerning relations with German chancellor Angela Merkel, who has supported Mr Sarkozy in the election, Mr Hollande said he would have “firm and friendly” talks with her. “But Germany must understand that it is growth that will allow us to resolve a large share of the problems,” he added.

Meanwhile, as campaigning intensified ahead of the referendum, it emerged that Taoiseach Enda Kenny has embarked on a series of 7am meetings with Fine Gael TDs and Senators to discuss the progress of the party’s referendum campaign.

The issue was discussed at a parliamentary party meeting which was addressed by Mr Kenny and the party’s director of elections for the referendum, Simon Coveney.

Minister for Transport Leo Varadkar predicted a very stark scenario for the State in the event of a No vote.

“It is likely to mean deeper, quicker and more brutal austerity and no scope for stimulus at all,” he told the Seanad.

Mr Varadkar said he was “sympathetic” to the calls of trade unions and other political groups for a stimulus plan. “In my view, however, a No vote on May 31st would undermine our aspiration of getting a stimulus programme in place precisely because it will heighten uncertainty about Ireland’s commitment to the euro.”

Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams portrayed those advocating a Yes vote as coming from “a Thatcherite and Reaganite right-wing, conservative ideological position”.

IDA Ireland chief executive Barry O’Leary has called for a Yes vote in the referendum.

In an opinion article in today’s Irish Times, he says global companies come to Ireland because they view it as a gateway to the wider European market.

© 2012 The Irish Times

[odlum833]

Poll shows 47% of voters in favour of Fiscal Treaty

29/04/2012 - 10:10:14

A new opinion poll published this morning indicates that the majority of voters who have decided their position are in favour of the EU Fiscal Treaty.

With just a month to go until the referendum on the treaty, the Red C opinion poll in today's Sunday Business Post shows that 47% of people plan to vote Yes on May 31.

Some 35% say they will vote No while 18% are undecided, according to the poll.

Deputy Editor of The Sunday Business Post Pat Leahy however said polling day is still some time away, and those campaigning for a Yes vote should not become complacent.

"This poll will steady nerves in Government Buildings a little bit, because some recent polls suggested that there was much greater weakness in the Yes vote than we see today," Mr Leahy said.

"In a nutshell, what we see in this poll is that the Yes side are in a good position but that the campaign will decide the outcome of this referendum."

Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil has called for a concerted effort from all pro-treaty parties in the five weeks left before the referendum.

The party has also criticised the Government for not ensuring a longer lead-in time before polling day.

Fianna Fáil's Director of Elections Timmy Dooley said they will be out in force to promote a Yes vote.

"We are certainly going to lead a very vigorous campaign in every constituency in the country," Deputy Dooley said.

"Our members and activists have already begun the work and this will continue for the next five weeks.

"It's our view that the treaty will be successful on this occasion.

"But we cannot be complacent and it's our view that the Government as leaders of that campaign has to put a very real and concerted effort in over the coming weeks

Read more: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/p...#ixzz1tRLJL1aN

Still solid for the Yes camp.

[JD47]

I wish we could get it over and done with.

[odlum833]

It hasn't even started yet. The government is launching the "yes" campaign tomorrow.

[manrush]

I wonder if FF will try to capitalise on this for their own political benefit.

[odlum833]

FF have something of a split in their party although mostly they support it. I don't see how they can benefit too much. Alot of people i'd imagine get riled when they see a FF'er on television advocating solutions to the crisis given their the ones that were in charge!

Ireland Europe Referendum Vote Looms
Published: Friday, 4 May 2012 | 9:02 AM ET Text Size
By: Catherine Boyle
Staff Writer, CNBC.com




The Irish vote on the new European fiscal treaty is becoming a vote on austerity and the people’s confidence in their government.



The Irish people will go to the polls May 31 to vote on a new fiscal treaty which would further integrate the euro zone and possibly lead to the creation of eurobonds.

Ireland has become something of a poster boy for austerity in comparison to counterparts like Greece on the periphery of the euro zone .

However, the campaign for the treaty has been muted so far, suggesting to some that the government is hedging its bets in case the Irish population votes against it. If they reject it, it could stop any further bailout help from the European Union.

In previous referendums on European topics, polls have indicated a “yes” vote, but resulted in a “no” as soft “yeses” stayed at home.

“This government will fall if there’s a no vote,” Philip Lane Professor of International Macroeconomics at Trinity College Dublin, told CNBC.com. “This could be a direct challenge to the financial situation. When you’re in the middle of a crisis it’s an opportunity to complain about things.”

He added that a no vote would be a vote for making things worse — and that he expects the Irish people to pass the referendum.Turnout could also be limited by the public holiday the following Monday — meaning that some may take a long weekend away instead of voting.

“Most people don’t know what they’re voting for or the structural elements. It’s the bigger, broader messages that they’re voting on. They understand we may need future help from the European Union and this could help get it,” Brian Devine, chief economist at Dublin-based brokerage NCB, told CNBC.com.

The government missed the chance to enforce tighter fiscal discipline in previous boom times, according to Lane.

“The backstory here is that even before the crisis, one of the problems was that during the boom years, it was very difficult politically to build up a surplus. It’s hard to win an election by saying ‘We want to save more money.’ We need some kind of fiscal rules,” he said.

“We are going to run a tight fiscal policy for a long time anyway. The big relevance to Ireland will be whenever the next boom happens.”



Some of the forward-looking indicators for the Irish economy have been more positive. Tax revenues for March are 370 million euros ($486 million) ahead of target in the year to April 2012, driven by healthier corporation tax revenues as companies move to Ireland, attracted by its relatively low corporation tax and increasingly cheap workforce.

Retail sales, in the doldrums for years as Irish consumers stayed out of the shops, have risen in the early months of the year. “There are some signs of consumption coming back to life,” Devine said.

Yet problems remain, and some believe they can only be fixed by more help from the European Union.

“The biggest issue is the banking system. There is going to have to be more European-level banking union and that requires a fiscal treaty first,” Lane said.

© 2012 CNBC.com

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47292883

I'm impressed by the "No" side I have to say as a "Yes" voter. They have no solutions to anything and their inane ramblings are embarrassing on their behalf. Just the other day one of their footsoldiers was - get this - calling for a €10bn per annum wealth tax!

[manrush]

If the Irish government does fall, who would replace it? FF? SF? Sounds like a nightmare scenario.

[JD47]

So what now for this treaty now that Franc has a new leader.

[odlum833]

Originally Posted by manrush

If the Irish government does fall, who would replace it? FF? SF? Sounds like a nightmare scenario.

Will SF do a deal with the devil?


I don't anticipate a "no" vote tbh. People generally know what is at stake. A "no" vote is too much of a risk.



JD I suppose we will find out more tomorrow about Hollande's intentions. We are having a referendum on this so I don't see how he can change the compact tbh. Be absolutely daft to have us vote on it and then have it changed and then vote again!

[odlum833]

Angela Merkel says EU Fiscal Treaty will not be renegotiated
Updated: 13:13, Monday, 7 May 2012




German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that the EU Fiscal Treaty is not up for renegotiation.



German Chancellor Angela Merkel said progress is only achievable through solid finances and growth

At a news conference in Berlin, in what were her first public comments since Francois Hollande was elected the new French president, Ms Merkel said that she looked forward to working with the Socialist Party leader.

During the election campaign Mr Hollande had said he intended to rework the agreement to try and promote growth.

Ms Merkel said Europe was in the middle of a debate and that France under its new president would bring its own emphasis.

However she said they were talking about two sides of the same coin, as progress is only achievable through solid finances and growth.

Earlier Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore said the treaty referendum should not be deferred as a result of Mr Hollande’s election victory.

Speaking from Paris on Morning Ireland, Mr Gilmore said trying to delay the referendum on the treaty here would send out the wrong message to investors.

He said Mr Hollande had made it clear that he supported the budgetary discipline measures contained in the treaty but, like the Irish government, wanted it coupled with a growth strategy for Europe.

However Sinn Féin’s deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald said the election results in France and Greece were a massive blow against policies of austerity across Europe.

She said Irish people should grab the opportunity in the fiscal treaty referendum on 31 May to add their voices to those from France and Greece and insist on change of policy direction.

Ms McDonald said the best way of doing this was by a resounding ‘No’
vote.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0507/eu-...ed-merkel.html

...

[thebig C]

Originally Posted by manrush

If the Irish government does fall, who would replace it? FF? SF? Sounds like a nightmare scenario.

Wishful thinking on Professor Lanes part! The Government wouldn't fall in the event of a No vote, their job would just be slightly more difficult and it would result in alot of publicity for SF and the ULA.......which is really what SF and the ULA are all about!

[thebig C]

Originally Posted by odlum833

Will SF do a deal with the devil?


I don't anticipate a "no" vote tbh. People generally know what is at stake. A "no" vote is too much of a risk.



JD I suppose we will find out more tomorrow about Hollande's intentions. We are having a referendum on this so I don't see how he can change the compact tbh. Be absolutely daft to have us vote on it and then have it changed and then vote again!

I think it will be very close, but I still think the Yes side will shade it.

Actually, events in Greece could actually help the Yes side....as Irish people many get an opportuinity to see the chaos which follows who you elect extremist parties!

[thebig C]

I love how the NO side keep repeating "Vote NO to end austerity"!!! As if upon rejection of the Treaty the National Debt will wipe itself out and the National Accounts will mysteriously balance