The Market (buying) in the city centre in 4 years time?

[Manchesterwill]

With rental prices slightly up at the moment, I was wondering what you all think about whether prices to buy will be up or down or even the same in 4 years in the city centre?

[Meadows]

Up, due to people buying to let.

[iheartthenew]

I think it's likely prices will rise, even if it is only slightly.

[thecityofgold]

In nominal terms up. In real terms perhaps not.

[heatonparkincakes]

Bit of unspecific question sir.

Perhaps you may wish to ask where, what and around how much you are presumingly ogling at.

And message for mods, should this be an Exchange Square thread?

[js1000]

Originally Posted by Manchesterwill

With rental prices slightly up at the moment, I was wondering what you all think about whether prices to buy will be up or down or even the same in 4 years in the city centre?

I see city centre renting increasing in the coming years. Rental prices will depend on whether the there are enough apartments to fulfil demand. The figures for apartment, office hotel occupancy in Manchester are good. It is difficult to say whether occupancy levels are sustainable or whether we have hit a 'cliff' where new space/buildings will be needed to supply demand.

[Meadows]

I think Manc city center could do with a few more Great Northern Tower like buildings. High-rise residentials seem like a good way to go, even if the main uptake is buy to let it helps reduce rents through providing supply.

[heatonparkincakes]

This bleeds unceremonially into two other existing threads.

The ONS preductions on population growth
Housing stock.

Simply if the stats are believed and Manchester's population is to expand by 170,000 over the next generation, then it will depend on if this impacts on the market.

It of course might also depend who these alleged new Mancs are, as that will inform the market. Whether growth motivates developers to build cheap low rise semis or expensiveapartments on the periphery and as yet built on pockets of land around the city centre core.

[EverythingButABeach]

Originally Posted by heatonparkincakes

This bleeds unceremonially into two other existing threads.

The ONS preductions on population growth
Housing stock.

Simply if the stats are believed and Manchester's population is to expand by 170,000 over the next generation, then it will depend on if this impacts on the market.

It of course might also depend who these alleged new Mancs are, as that will inform the market. Whether growth motivates developers to build cheap low rise semis or expensiveapartments on the periphery and as yet built on pockets of land around the city centre core.

With a 99% occupancy rate for apartments in the centre it's a shame that nobody ever applied for a 60 story building (say next to a train station). If anyone built that they'd get 420 apartments * £900 a month = £4.5 million per annum plus £2.5 million for a hotel let plus another £0.5 million for retail and another £0.5 million for office rental = £8 million a year plus an appreciating asset. If say hypothetically it cost circa £200 million to build (as say steel costs have come down) then you'd make a return of 4% pa plus say 4% pa of appreciation on the assets.

Shame nobody has ever thought of it...

[Manchesterwill]

Originally Posted by heatonparkincakes

Bit of unspecific question sir.

Perhaps you may wish to ask where, what and around how much you are presumingly ogling at.

And message for mods, should this be an Exchange Square thread?

Probably a 1 bed at century buildings @ £180k in 4 years time if that's how much they are still going for.