China's ghost cities

[skyridgeline]

China's Ministry of Finance said on Thursday it had given 66 billion yuan ($10.5 billion) to local governments to help build public housing for rent, one of five categories of state-subsidized affordable housing.

It follows earlier announcements by the ministry that 21.2 billion yuan had been given to rebuild shanty towns and another 10.5 billion yuan had been given for construction of low-rent homes, the bottom tier of social housing.

- BEIJING | Thu May 24, 2012 12:45am EDT, reuters.com
(Reporting by Langi Chiang and Nick Edwards; Editing by Eric Meijer)

[Kenwen]

Originally Posted by Skyrazer

Only stupid people would believe an economic model built around binging on fixed-asset investments is a sustainable model to run a large complex economy on in the long run. If you truly believe China can continue to do what they are doing to infinity and beyond, you are delusional, end of story.

And if China galls? Yeah it'll be felt around the world, but the universe as we know it won't end. If we can live through the 2008 meltdown (which I remind you is when the US, a much larger and more influential economy than China's, croaked), we can live through China having a bit of a stumble and fall.

Then u have to provide me figures to prove that the Chinese economy rely on fixed asset investments. Last year, China's industrial production value exceeded that of USA, China making more things than any nation in the world, the economy is much healthier than the developed nations that rely on financial market and services.
The high fixed investments that catch people attentions is the result of the current China economical stage, China is still going through industrialization, our infrastructure is still behind that of the developed nations, and China is experiencing the the massive urbanization that is unseen in the human history. And also chinese government are not gods, they do make mistakes, the real estate crisis was formed because of them, and my countrymen are seeing the efforts of the government tackling this problem.
And China is still the fastest growing major nations in the world, we are very confident of them, because they always create results that exceeded their own expectations. And other developing countries which their government shouting that they will grow faster than China are still far behind that of the chinese growth, I think they should do more actions than empty talks that worth nothing.

[yankeesfan1000]

Originally Posted by Kenwen

Then u have to provide me figures to prove that the Chinese economy rely on fixed asset investments...

Read the article I posted on the last page of this thread, or you can pretend like it's not there. Government spending on fixed assets has surpassed manufacturing as the largest contributor to GDP. Government spending on infrastructure, like roads, bridges, ports, etc, is a good thing, but this goes way beyond that.

You're claim that China's economy is healthier than that in the industrialized world is so ridiculous I'm at a loss for words...

[Jay]

China has to grow smartly, no country can keep the growth rate it has for too long, the rise will not last forever. When the rise ends, and there are empty buildings and poor people, things are going to get ugly.

China needs to work on making its people richer, before they go on building massive projects that no one uses. Per capita income going up takes a lot of time, it takes decades for a country to become fully developed at times.

[HK999]

Originally Posted by Kenwen

Then u have to provide me figures to prove that the Chinese economy rely on fixed asset investments. Last year, China's industrial production value exceeded that of USA, China making more things than any nation in the world, the economy is much healthier than the developed nations that rely on financial market and services.
The high fixed investments that catch people attentions is the result of the current China economical stage, China is still going through industrialization, our infrastructure is still behind that of the developed nations, and China is experiencing the the massive urbanization that is unseen in the human history. And also chinese government are not gods, they do make mistakes, the real estate crisis was formed because of them, and my countrymen are seeing the efforts of the government tackling this problem.
And China is still the fastest growing major nations in the world, we are very confident of them, because they always create results that exceeded their own expectations. And other developing countries which their government shouting that they will grow faster than China are still far behind that of the chinese growth, I think they should do more actions than empty talks that worth nothing.

How's father doing? Did he finally join the party?

Originally Posted by conc.man

Well, I am doing the opposite, trying hard to buy an apartment in Beijing recently, I think it's a low risk investment, but seems impossible now, authorities has heavily restricted house buying since last year, they just simply say you cant buy it, really annoying.

Join the CPC, and you can buy anything. All doors are open.

[skyridgeline]

"I know very well that the reform will not be an easy one and the reform will not be able to succeed without the consciousness, the support, the enthusiasm and creativity of our people," Wen said.

- BEIJING, March 14 (Xinhua) English.news.cn 2012-03-14 11:49:22

[Jay]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJntN...feature=relmfu

interesting video from Aljazeera English

[Skyrazer]

Originally Posted by Kenwen

Then u have to provide me figures to prove that the Chinese economy rely on fixed asset investments. Last year, China's industrial production value exceeded that of USA, China making more things than any nation in the world, the economy is much healthier than the developed nations that rely on financial market and services.
The high fixed investments that catch people attentions is the result of the current China economical stage, China is still going through industrialization, our infrastructure is still behind that of the developed nations, and China is experiencing the the massive urbanization that is unseen in the human history. And also chinese government are not gods, they do make mistakes, the real estate crisis was formed because of them, and my countrymen are seeing the efforts of the government tackling this problem.
And China is still the fastest growing major nations in the world, we are very confident of them, because they always create results that exceeded their own expectations. And other developing countries which their government shouting that they will grow faster than China are still far behind that of the chinese growth, I think they should do more actions than empty talks that worth nothing.

What, provide those trustworthy figures which go through the mandatory central govt filter?

Look, I'm not doubting China's growth and forward momentum, but all that non or under-utilised infrastructure and hard assets they keep building is creating some serious headwinds that are and will continue to cause problems for the country. They maybe the fastest growing country economically in the world, undergoing changes to a degree not seen in past history, but that does not exempt them from the rules of reality and the fundamental forces of markets.

I'm not saying they're going to crash and burn into the dark ages, but they will have to undertake some painful adjustments (if they are not already).

[skyridgeline]

“I think the main figure that matters to all of us, including people in the media, is: How does GDP per capita grow? And those figures have been very good. There is a huge flux both up and down, so it isn’t like we’re all static in status. What’s important is that pie grows. ”
- http://www.25iq.com/charlie-munger-quotations/

[jamichelson]

my thoughts: family house areas look almost like in US; it's funny to see empty shopping mall I wonder how is life of those couple of families which actually live there...

[skyridgeline]

Uploaded by EconCat88 on Jul 21, 2011




Ghost ("creepy little girl")

Uploaded by stuckincustoms on Oct 5, 2011

[little universe]

Those are so classic! Ghost men/鬼佬(Chinese People call White guys) were exploring Ghost Shopping Mall and Ghost Theme Park! At the end of the latter one the ghost man with yankee accent scared some innocent little puppies in the ruined castle.

[Hallavaara]

I personally don't think these ghost cities are anything else than foolish investments by some misguided individuals, and not a sign of a bigger issue.

China has a lot of wealthy people, and few ways to spend money since most people don't trust the banks or have means to purchase stocks or whatever. so they just buy real estate, with little regard on their true value.
But unlike here in Europe, there's very little dept involved in buying real estate, so even if a ghost town goes bust it's not a loss for the banks, only for the people who speculated with real estate. Who are quite rich to begin with, seeing as they can purchase more apartments 50-100 % debt-free.

[Kenwen]

Originally Posted by Hallavaara

I personally don't think these ghost cities are anything else than foolish investments by some misguided individuals, and not a sign of a bigger issue.

China has a lot of wealthy people, and few ways to spend money since most people don't trust the banks or have means to purchase stocks or whatever. so they just buy real estate, with little regard on their true value.
But unlike here in Europe, there's very little dept involved in buying real estate, so even if a ghost town goes bust it's not a loss for the banks, only for the people who speculated with real estate. Who are quite rich to begin with, seeing as they can purchase more apartments 50-100 % debt-free.

Good point!

[Skyprince]

Many ghost towns , ghost parks, ghost bus/train terminals here in malaysia had been suffering initially for few years, but finally with population and economic growth they are finally filled up.

"Ghost town" phenomenon is normal IMO

It's better to over-build than having shortage of supply. Empty buildings don't kill anyone

[earthJoker]

Originally Posted by little universe

Those are so classic! Ghost men/鬼佬(Chinese People call White guys) were exploring Ghost Shopping Mall and Ghost Theme Park! At the end of the latter one the ghost man with yankee accent scared some innocent little puppies in the ruined castle.

Yeah, let's have some good old racism now end then

Ah wait, it isn't racism if you talk about the white.

[Chrissib]

Originally Posted by Skyprince

Many ghost towns , ghost parks, ghost bus/train terminals here in malaysia had been suffering initially for few years, but finally with population and economic growth they are finally filled up.

"Ghost town" phenomenon is normal IMO

It's better to over-build than having shortage of supply. Empty buildings don't kill anyone

The difference is that Malaysia has a decent and balanced population growth, so Malay developers can almost always be sure that their developments fill up with time, not so in China. The massive urbanisation wave of the 80s, 90s and 00s is turning to an end, and the supply of new rural people wanting to go to the cities is shrinking every day. At the same time the Chinese cities need ever more people to fill it's appartements because of the one child policy the fertility rate in cities is very low and many cities would loose population if there were no internal migration.

[Kenwen]

Originally Posted by Chrissib

The difference is that Malaysia has a decent and balanced population growth, so Malay developers can almost always be sure that their developments fill up with time, not so in China. The massive urbanisation wave of the 80s, 90s and 00s is turning to an end, and the supply of new rural people wanting to go to the cities is shrinking every day. At the same time the Chinese cities need ever more people to fill it's appartements because of the one child policy the fertility rate in cities is very low and many cities would loose population if there were no internal migration.

Lol, to an end? 49% of total population of China still lives in villages, at least half of them will move to cities in 2 decades time, we are looking at over 200 million people migrating to cities from their villages.
Even the house price drops to the price thats affordable for the poorest cities dwellers, there is still a big shortage with the massive amount of completed apartments and the ones being built for the current city dwellers, not to mentioned the 200 million more moving to cities in the next two decades. So demand will remain high for at least 30 to 40 more years to come. The main problems here is not over built but how should the government control the house price to a affordable level for the majority. If the urbanization rate of China is not getting over 80%, there will always be real estate boom, so does the cities will not stop growing until that point.
Cities like Beijing and Shanghai is still growing like 1 million plus per annum, not to mentions some others smaller cities which are growing much faster than the big one.

[Jay]

Originally Posted by earthJoker

Yeah, let's have some good old racism now end then

Ah wait, it isn't racism if you talk about the white.

Sometimes people need to make fun of others to feel big, compensating for something else that might be too small, in little universe's case.

[Rekarte]

So old those pics and video...