Toronto is Booming, but how?

[KamT]

LOL thank you taller, better!

I'd rather just say argument, not fight. I'm a pretty chill dude and all of you guys probably are too.. sometimes there are misunderstandings and they simply need to be sorted out.. besides, what's the forum for anyway?

[isaidso]

I didn't know where to put this so I hope it's alright here.


Built
01. First Canadian Place - 297m
02. Scotia Plaza - 275m
03. TD Canada Trust - 261m
04. Trump Tower - 252m
05. Commerce Court West - 239m
06. Toronto Dominion - 223m
07. Bay-Adelaide - 218m
08. Shangri-La - 214m
09. Ritz-Carlton - 208m
10. Bay-Wellington - 207m
11. Four Seasons - 204m

Under Construction
01. AURA - 272m
02. One Bloor - 238m
03. ICE Condos II - 234m
04. L Tower - 205m
05. ICE Condos I - 202m

Proposed
01. Theatre Block - 284m
02. Holt Renfrew Centre 277m
03. Theatre Block - 276m
04. Theatre Block - 272m
05. 10 York - 253m (7 floor height reduction expected)
06. 45 Bay - 244m
07. 37 Yorkville - 238m
08. 43 Simcoe - 234m
09. Harbour Plaza East - 233m
10. Harbour Plaza West - 224m
11. 156 Front - 222m
12. Eau de Soleil I - 216m
13. Massey Tower - 208m
14. 460 Yonge - 207m
15. 88 Scott - 204m
16. E Condos South - 202m


If all the proposals get built, Toronto could move into 5th spot globally when it comes to 200m+ buildings. As of January 1, 2012 the top 10 were:

01. Dubai (63)
02. Hong Kong (61)
03. New York (53)
04. Shanghai (46)
05. Chicago and Shenzhen (27)
07. Tokyo (21)
08. Singapore (18)
09. Guangzhou (16)
10. Houston (14)

Chicago and Shenzhen will get bounced unless they go on a major building spree. Keep growing Toronto!

[Fitzrovian]

Originally Posted by isaidso

I didn't know where to put this so I hope it's alright here.


Built
01. First Canadian Place - 297m
02. Scotia Plaza - 275m
03. TD Canada Trust - 261m
04. Trump Tower - 252m
05. Commerce Court West - 239m
06. Toronto Dominion - 223m
07. Bay-Adelaide - 218m
08. Shangri-La - 214m
09. Ritz-Carlton - 208m
10. Bay-Wellington - 207m
11. Four Seasons - 204m

Under Construction
01. AURA - 272m
02. One Bloor - 238m
03. ICE Condos II - 234m
04. L Tower - 205m
05. ICE Condos I - 202m

Proposed

01. Theatre Block - 284m
02. Holt Renfrew Centre 277m
03. Theatre Block - 276m
04. Theatre Block - 272m
05. 10 York - 253m (7 floor height reduction expected)
06. 45 Bay - 244m
07. 37 Yorkville - 238m
08. 43 Simcoe - 234m
09. Harbour Plaza East - 233m
10. Harbour Plaza West - 224m
11. 156 Front - 222m
12. Eau de Soleil I - 216m
13. Massey Tower - 208m
14. 460 Yonge - 207m
15. 88 Scott - 204m
16. E Condos South - 202m

If all the proposals get built, Toronto could move into 5th spot globally when it comes to 200m+ buildings. As of January 1, 2012 the top 10 were:

01. Dubai (63)
02. Hong Kong (61)
03. New York (53)
04. Shanghai (46)
05. Chicago and Shenzhen (27)
07. Tokyo (21)
08. Singapore (18)
09. Guangzhou (16)
10. Houston (14)

Chicago and Shenzhen will get bounced unless they go on a major building spree. Keep growing Toronto!

Sixteen of the buildings have only been "proposed" - so it could easily be 5 to 10 years before they are actually built (if at all) - and yet you are assuming that all the other cities will be sitting still during all this time. Quite fanciful.

Have you even checked what Chicago, Shenzhen, etc already have under construction or proposed? Shenzhen has nine 200+ skyscrapers under construction and 3 more proposed. Haven't checked Chicago but to think it conceivable that it will not add quite a few more 200+ skyscrapers in the next 5 to 10 years (when it has built close to twenty in the last 10) requires an active imagination.

[KamT]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Proposed
01. Theatre Block - 284m
02. Holt Renfrew Centre 277m
03. Theatre Block - 276m
04. Theatre Block - 272m

WHAAT?! Were gettin a 280+?!

I just spent the past 10 mins looking through the forum + google and have found nothing on "Theatre Block" or "284m toronto" etc.

Mind giving us some links or renders?

[rbt]

Originally Posted by Fitzrovian

Have you even checked what Chicago, Shenzen, etc already have under construction or proposed?

Yup. Only ~3 on the proposed list are sure things with the market slowing down (they have the sales, permits and design are the delay).

That said, while Shenzen isn't going to sit still Chicago certainly seems to be moving at a significantly slower pace for the last 3 decades.

[Fitzrovian]

Originally Posted by rbt

Yup. Only ~3 on the proposed list are sure things with the market slowing down (they have the sales, permits and design are the delay).

That said, while Shenzen isn't going to sit still Chicago certainly seems to be moving at a significantly slower pace for the last 3 decades.

You are kidding right? In the last 12 years alone Chicago has built more 600 footers (19) and 500 footers (33) than Toronto has built in its entire existence. Double that in the last 30 years. I think most cities would be thrilled with such "slower pace".

[Marcanadian]

Originally Posted by KamT

WHAAT?! Were gettin a 280+?!

I just spent the past 10 mins looking through the forum + google and have found nothing on "Theatre Block" or "284m toronto" etc.

Mind giving us some links or renders?

The three tower Gehry-Mirvish development on King Street:

http://projectcore.com/

[KamT]

Wowwwwwwwwww! hope that gets built!

[rbt]

Originally Posted by Fitzrovian

You are kidding right? In the last 12 years alone Chicago has built more 600 footers (19) and 500 footers (33) than Toronto has built in its entire existence. Double that in the last 30 years. I think most cities would be thrilled with such "slower pace".

Yes, I'm familiar with both Chicago's/Toronto's numbers and their respective real-estate development cycles.

The current Toronto development bell curve puts 600' well above the peak of the curve however the curve shifts right with each cycle. The 80's had a ton of 22 to 30 floor residential buildings at the peak. This residential cycles peak seems to be finishing at 40 to 55 floors. Office development in Toronto is a small fraction of the overall skyscraper count.

Over 500 skyscrapers have been build (or are under construction) for this cycle (2000 through current). If you bump the average height by 20% and keep the curve; it puts ~15% of the next cycles construction activity at or above 600' compared to todays ~3%.

So, for Toronto's next development cycle I predict about 75 buildings in the 600'+ range and likely another 100 to 150 buildings in the 500' to 600' range. This will occur over the next 25 years in the event of a complete market collapse and sooner if there is no collapse.

A pair of new TTC subway lines or electrified and cheap GO to downtown Toronto would gut the above numbers; however halted transit investment (possible with a Conservative government) would cause them to increase. That is, downtown real-estate prices and resulting building heights are directly related to congestion/mobility. At this time only minimal investment into public transit is planned for the next 15 years, a fairly consistent pattern for Toronto.




Chicago on the other hand already develops primarily in the 450'+ range with a large portion above 500'. It's not an exception that bumps them into it; more the rule. If they get a height boost from land price escalation, it will not impact the next cycles 600'+ counts as they already build in that range. They may well add a dozen or so 1000'+ towers; but both 800' and 1000' are in the 600'+ counts.


Take a look at what happened in the 400' to 500' range between 2000 and today; then adjust upward in height.


TLDR; in short my predictions for 2037:

Chicago above 150m (~500'): 140 to 170 buildings
Chicago above 200m (~600'): 45 to 60 buildings
Chicago above 300m (~1000'): 11 buildings

Toronto above 150m: 200 to 250 buildings
Toronto above 200m: 80 to 110 buildings
Toronto above 300m: 3 buildings (one each from Tridel, Lanterra, and Great Gulf or Menkes)


For kicks, I've added this prediction to my calendar. If Google (my calendar), Skyscraper City, and this thread still exist then; I'll try to post an update.

[softee]

Chicago doesn't have any 200+ metre buildings under construction now, does it?

I think as many as 5 of Toronto's proposed 200+ metre buildings could start construction within a year.

[rbt]

Originally Posted by softee

Chicago doesn't have any 200+ metre buildings under construction now, does it?

Certainly does, at least one building under construction is about 320m. I can't remember others off the top of my head.

However, Chicago's current activity level is unusually low.

[softee]

I just checked the SSP database and it turns out that there are two buildings in the 630 ft. range under construction, no sign of that 320m building, though.

[Fitzrovian]

Originally Posted by rbt

TLDR; in short my predictions for 2037:

Chicago above 150m (~500'): 140 to 170 buildings
Chicago above 200m (~600'): 45 to 60 buildings
Chicago above 300m (~1000'): 11 buildings

Toronto above 150m: 200 to 250 buildings
Toronto above 200m: 80 to 110 buildings
Toronto above 300m: 3 buildings (one each from Tridel, Lanterra, and Great Gulf or Menkes)

So you think that Toronto, which after an unprecedented (for Canada) skyscraper boom still boasts a total of only 14 600 footers (vs 44 in Chicago) and 27 500 footers (vs 105 in Chicago), in the next 25 years will build another 66 to 96 600 footers and 170 to 220 500 footers?

I know I am on your guys' turf so I am trying to tread lightly but I do have to ask: are you high?

Are all Torontonians posting on this board this delusional?

[rbt]

Originally Posted by Fitzrovian

So you think that Toronto, which after an unprecedented (for Canada) skyscraper boom

A boom of the size Toronto experienced has happened twice before in Toronto. Of course, you obviously know how Toronto got over 2000 high-rise buildings; 1/3rd of which have over 300 residential units in them.

Right? You do know the past of the city. It's rather necessary in predicting the future.

still boasts a total of only 14 600 footers (vs 44 in Chicago) and 27 500 footers (vs 105 in Chicago), in the next 25 years will build another 66 to 96 600 footers and 170 to 220 500 footers?

Yes, did you read anything I wrote about the bell curve of developed building heights? Really, look at the 70's, the 80's and today's curves. Note the height change.

Note what happened to the 400' to 500' range during this boom (you read my last post right?). The number increased just a tiny little bit over the last decade in Toronto; a direct result of increased land values (land values rose first). In fact, if you look really closely you can watch the heights of condos march up in lock-step with land values starting from 2000 when 30 floors was common downtown through to today where ~50 floors is common for structure under construction.

It's safe to extrapolate, save for massive public transit investment (well beyond the $50B we wishfully hope for), that land values will continue to increase and, again, land values are a leading indicator for building height in Toronto. They're directly linked.

are you high?

No, just paying attention to the facts of the last 3 real-estate apartment cycles in Toronto and applying principals of extrapolation.

You are hand-waving and I've presented an actual case for my estimates.

I have no issue with dissenters; I have an issue with hand-waving.

In your 2037, what are Toronto's land values relative to today? What are the transit issues (congestion is a strong driver of Toronto's residential market)? How have construction costs changed for high-rise? How has the planning processed changed?

[Taller, Better]

I know, let's start a pissing match between Toronto and Chicago and New York!


NOT.

Let it go, and lets please get back on topic, without any fanciful predictions that are only going to attract miffed members from other cities. Thank you.

A note to everyone: Please do not ignore what I say now and steamroll right on. That has been happening too much lately. Let's let it drop, and move on.

[Fitzrovian]

Okay I will stay mum. I was just pointing out that some of the predictions and assumptions being banded about here - such as rbt's "extrapolations" that Toronto will build as many or more 500 and 600 footers in the next 25 years as NYC has built in its entire history (while right now it's barely scratching 10%) - go beyond rational discourse into pure boosterist fantasy.

I will leave it at that.

[Taller, Better]

Every time anyone starts to draw comparisons between our city and Chicago or New York and then extrapolate to the future, it stirs the pot, so let's just not do it! Please and Thanks, all.

[koolio]

I think this entire thread is silly. Nothing good can come from people predicting the end of the boom/bust cycle. Lets just sit back and enjoy reality as it unfolds, whatever it maybe.

[Taller, Better]

+1 times ten.
What will be, will be. There is many a slip twixt cup and lip.

[Fitzrovian]

Originally Posted by Taller, Better

Every time anyone starts to draw comparisons between our city and Chicago or New York and then extrapolate to the future, it stirs the pot, so let's just not do it! Please and Thanks, all.

Edited by Taller, Better.

Let It Go, please.
You had your say and wound things up; now leave it as such please. You do not have to take it any further than you have already.