Miami, 44th most dynamic city with 7,2 million inhaibitants in 2025

[1772]

Foreign Policy Magazine (FP) puts Miami at the 44th spot of the most dynamic cities with an population increase to 7,2 million (from todays 5,6) in the year 2025.

Your thoughts?

The article: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...cities_of_2025

The list: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...cities_of_2025

[QuantumX]

That's 7.2 million for the metropolitan area. Just want to be clear about that. I would place us higher than Houston and Dallas by that time though.

[CF221]

At our current pace, we won't even have ONE light rail line by 2025... a city that used to host 8 lines in the past.

[UMdev]

Originally Posted by QuantumX

I would place us higher than Houston and Dallas by that time though.

Why do you say that. Dallas and Houston both have a higher population and are also growing at a fast pace.

Dallas 6.5M people and grew by 2.43%
Houston 6M people and grew by 2.35%
Miami 5.6M people and grew by 1.90%

It's highly unlikely that Miami surpasses either of them in population in the next 10 - 15 years.

I think they have it right. Philadelphia is probably the only metropolitan area that Miami over takes in the next decade.

[QuantumX]

Originally Posted by UMdev

Why do you say that. Dallas and Houston both have a higher population and are also growing at a fast pace.

Dallas 6.5M people and grew by 2.43%
Houston 6M people and grew by 2.35%
Miami 5.6M people and grew by 1.90%

It's highly unlikely that Miami surpasses either of them in population in the next 10 - 15 years.

I think they have it right. Philadelphia is probably the only metropolitan area that Miami over takes in the next decade.

I wasn't thinking in terms of population. I was thinking in terms of dynamism and how important the city will become to the rest of world in the future.

[PeterSmith]

You've confused me, as well, Q. The list has both Houston and Dallas ahead of Miami on the dynamism list. Houston is 22; Dallas is 23. FP also projects both cities to have larger populations than Miami. Of course, the list doesn't attempt to measure a city's global importance. We could still make the argument that Miami will be more important globally in 2025. That will depend, as it relates to Houston, on our energy policy and on how firmly Dallas can cement itself as a financial hub. It will also depend on whatever direction Miami's economy takes over the next decade, which appears to be a flip of the coin, at the moment.

[QuantumX]

Originally Posted by PeterSmith

You've confused me, as well, Q.

Sorry! I should have at least paragraphed this.

Originally Posted by QuantumX

That's 7.2 million for the metropolitan area. Just want to be clear about that.

Here, I'm just clarifying what 1772 said about population.

Originally Posted by QuantumX

I would place us higher than Houston and Dallas by that time though.

Here, I'm addressing the thread title as 1772 typed it. The way he typed it, it sounded as though population alone is what makes a city dynamic when I know that's not true. How do you measure that? Not sure.

Originally Posted by PeterSmith

Of course, the list doesn't attempt to measure a city's global importance. We could still make the argument that Miami will be more important globally in 2025. That will depend, as it relates to Houston, on our energy policy and on how firmly Dallas can cement itself as a financial hub. It will also depend on whatever direction Miami's economy takes over the next decade, which appears to be a flip of the coin, at the moment.

I think it's more than a flip of a coin with the kind of renewed interest and attention that has been brought to the city.

[PeterSmith]

Sure, flip of the coin may have been harsh. I am optimistic that Miami will keep growing. I think it's a bit more uncertain what will be driving that growth. So many of our industries - finance, tourism, construction, and our port - are tied to foreign economies. We could emerge as the financial hub of a increasingly wealthy Latin America... or we could find ourselves sidelined as a third or fourth tier hub behind Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Santiago, etc. There will be a lot of opportunity, but just how much there is and how much of it we can grasp is still up in the air, I think.

[QuantumX]

Originally Posted by PeterSmith

...or we could find ourselves sidelined as a third or fourth tier hub behind Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Santiago, etc.

I don't think it will be this bad. When I drive downtown these days, I can feel the energy, especially with all those Brickell Citicentre lots under construction. A much more powerful and dynamic city is coming. It's almost a palpable thing. My anticipation of that is keeping me alive even more than my own family. It's electric!

Originally Posted by PeterSmith

There will be a lot of opportunity, but just how much there is and how much of it we can grasp is still up in the air, I think.

How much of it we can grasp with our leadership is definitely up in the air.

[ftlauddude]

Population wise I don't think will reach that level in 13 years. Also to be more dynamic; the amount of investment required is nothing we're seeing as of now. Dallas has an impressive light rail system for a sprawled city, which is growing in length as we speak; therefore, i don't think we'll surpass it any time soon unless mobility becomes a priority in our near future. Maybe Houston, which has a worse transportation system than us but Dallas never as of the level of investment we have right now.

[UMdev]

Originally Posted by QuantumX

I wasn't thinking in terms of population. I was thinking in terms of dynamism and how important the city will become to the rest of world in the future.

Q,

I could be wrong but you seem to be basing your idea of how important a city is to the rest of the world in terms of notoriety and not economic impact. When you look at the GDP numbers they posted its clear Miami will not be passing either of those on that front either.

GDP
Dallas $341B current, $560B projected 2025, 64% growth
Houston $325B current, $541B projected 2025, 67% growth
Miami $236B current, $380B projected 2025, 61% growth

I think its a safe bet that Miami isn't going to catch either of these two cities in terms of GDP. And the positive thing about the two of them is that they are located near each other and can use that synergy along with other fast growing cities like Austin, while Miami in general is segregated from anything.

Now of course if you wen't around the world and asked people which city is more dynamic undoubtedly you'd get Miami over either of them because most people simply don't know them. How many international people fly to America just to visit Dallas or Houston. But notoriety doesn't really count much as Miami's economy is built on tourism while Dallas and Houston's economy is built on energy.

As of right now Miami is still a one trick (or actually two trick) pony relying heavily on tourism and real estate. Now maybe over the next 10 to 20 years as we continue to develop downtown Miami will be able to attract industry to Miami so it will be able to surpass Dallas or Houston sometime in the 20 years after that.

And to be clear, I'm extremely optimistic about Miami. But as of right now both those cities are ahead of Miami and have a lot of things going for them as well.

[QuantumX]

Originally Posted by UMdev

Q,

I could be wrong but you seem to be basing your idea of how important a city is to the rest of the world in terms of notoriety and not economic impact.

No, it's a combination of things including notoriety.

Originally Posted by UMdev

Now maybe over the next 10 to 20 years as we continue to develop downtown Miami will be able to attract industry to Miami so it will be able to surpass Dallas or Houston sometime in the 20 years after that.

But 2025 is still 12 years away, and even if we don't attract the industry alone to surpass Dallas or Houston in GDP, I think dynamism is a combination of things, including our location as being the crossroads between Europe and the Americas, and yes, Miami's notoriety is part of what makes it dynamic.

[UMdev]

Originally Posted by QuantumX

But 2025 is still 12 years away

That's my point, 12 years isn't enough time. Annual GDP only grows by a few percent a year. Dallas' GDP would have to grow at an annual rate of less than 1% while Miami grows at an annual rate of greater than 4%. That simply isn't going to happen when Dallas as of right now is growing faster than Miami.

This isn't a case of Miami not doing good, it's just a matter of fact that in terms of GDP Dallas and Houston are doing better.

Originally Posted by QuantumX

, and even if we don't attract the industry alone to surpass Dallas or Houston in GDP, I think dynamism is a combination of things, including our location as being the crossroads between Europe and the Americas, and yes, Miami's notoriety is part of what makes it dynamic.

Here in lies the problem. You are incorrectly using the word dynamic. Dynamic just means "changing" or "active" or "adaptable". The article is talking about how 600 cities (actually metropolitan areas) control the most of the global GDP and how that list of 600 cities will be different in 2025 due cities being dynamic or "changing" to become more urban.

So I'd agree with you that Miami is more dynamic. But not because of it's location because it has always been located in the same place. But when you go from a downtown that isn't looked at like a residential place at all and you add 22,000 condos in 10 years and then follow that up with projects like Citicentre, 1101 Brickell, MyBrickell, Brickell House, 1100 Millicento, EnV coming out of a recession you've definately have a dynamic urban center.

But with all that said there is no way that this urban change leads to Miami's GDP being higher than Dallas or Houston in 12 years.

[QuantumX]

Originally Posted by UMdev

That's my point, 12 years isn't enough time. Annual GDP only grows by a few percent a year. Dallas' GDP would have to grow at an annual rate of less than 1% while Miami grows at an annual rate of greater than 4%. That simply isn't going to happen when Dallas as of right now is growing faster than Miami.

This isn't a case of Miami not doing good, it's just a matter of fact that in terms of GDP Dallas and Houston are doing better.

Then, I think the list should say something like the biggest economic powerhouses of 2025.

Originally Posted by UMdev

Here in lies the problem. You are incorrectly using the word dynamic. Dynamic just means "changing" or "active" or "adaptable". The article is talking about how 600 cities (actually metropolitan areas) control the most of the global GDP and how that list of 600 cities will be different in 2025 due cities being dynamic or "changing" to become more urban.

Well, I think this describes Miami and how I've been using the word.

Originally Posted by UMdev

So I'd agree with you that Miami is more dynamic. But not because of it's location because it has always been located in the same place.

Yes, I know it's always been in the same place, but here's a point where I'll have to agree with Casamagda when he made the point as Roark. I think Miami always had the potential to become a more dynamic city because of its location as a global crossroads as opposed to landlocked Dallas which has the advantage of being more centrally located than isolated like Miami, but Miami was hindered by its local government having had more of a reputation for being a banana republic.

Originally Posted by UMdev

But when you go from a downtown that isn't looked at like a residential place at all and you add 22,000 condos in 10 years and then follow that up with projects like Citicentre, 1101 Brickell, MyBrickell, Brickell House, 1100 Millicento, EnV coming out of a recession you've definitely have a dynamic urban center.

Well, most definitely agreed there.

Originally Posted by UMdev

But with all that said there is no way that this urban change leads to Miami's GDP being higher than Dallas or Houston in 12 years.

And I didn't say that. I said I thought it would be more dynamic than Dallas or Houston by (using your words) becoming more adaptable, active, and changing, and becoming much more an economic power house than it is today, not necessarily more so than Dallas or Houston. Remember, I thought dynamism included other things, and by your definition, it does include other things than being an economic powerhouse.

[UMdev]

Originally Posted by QuantumX

Then, I think the list should say something like the biggest economic powerhouses of 2025.

Look at how the list is ranked. The city with the most economic growth is at the top and the city with the least economic growth is at the bottom. They explain it in the article:

The list .... is based largely on national per capita GDP growth rates.

Originally Posted by QuantumX

And I didn't say that. I said I thought it would be more dynamic than Dallas or Houston by (using your words) becoming more adaptable, active, and changing, and becoming much more an economic power house than it is today, not necessarily more so than Dallas or Houston. Remember, I thought dynamism included other things, and by your definition, it does include other things than being an economic powerhouse.

It's not according to my definition, its the actual definition. From Webster:

dy·nam·ic : marked by usually continuous and productive activity or change <a dynamic city>

You can't really rank being dynamic. Thats like saying which city is changing more. That is something very subjective. Does adding a fortune 500 company account for a city changing more than building a new stadium, or adding light rail? You really can't compare. You have to put the "change" in some sort of context. Which city is changing its population more, which city is changing to add more light rail, etc. In the case of this article and ranking its which city is changing its GDP more.

Again if you look at the list you will see that the city with the highest economic growth is ranked 1st, the city with the second highest growth is ranked 2nd, etc.

This is what is at the bottom of the list:

Ranked by projected absolute GDP growth 2012-2025 at predicted real exchange rates.


With that being said I think this is great for Miami. When you look at the US you have:

New York
Los Angeles
Houston
Dallas
Washington
Chicago
Miami

I'm sure if you asked most people to rank the top US cities, places like Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, etc. would all rank higher.

[QuantumX]

Then, they shouldn't have called the list what they did, as a I said in so many words. There in lies the problem. They are the ones using the word dynamic incorrectly according to Webster.

[nicaraguag]

xxx

[diablo234]

Originally Posted by ftlauddude

Maybe Houston, which has a worse transportation system than us but Dallas never as of the level of investment we have right now.

The only real advantage Miami has over Houston as far as transportation infastructure is concerned is the Tri-Rail commuter rail line. Houston is actually in the process of expanding their light rail system with a line extension and two new lines already under construction (expected to open in 2014), and with two more lines being planned.

Here is a link to the thread I created in case you are curious about any construction photos/updates.

HOUSTON | METRO Transit Development News

[ftlauddude]

Originally Posted by diablo234

The only real advantage Miami has over Houston as far as transportation infastructure is concerned is the Tri-Rail commuter rail line. Houston is actually in the process of expanding their light rail system with a line extension and two new lines already under construction (expected to open in 2014), and with two more lines being planned.

Here is a link to the thread I created in case you are curious about any construction photos/updates.

HOUSTON | METRO Transit Development News

No, that's not the only one. The metropolitan area has more mass transit options than Houston, even if these street car lines are opened. I've used the line in Houston and it's convenient if you live/work/play in Downtown but that's it. Miami, besides Tri-Rail which serves the metropolitan counties, has the Metrorail (green and orange lines) and the MetroMover, the Downtown circulator just as the one you guys currently have in service up there. Just recently, MIA was connected to the mass transit grid which in my opinion is a huge milestone. In addition, all major airport are connected by the commuter line, which it is not how IAH and HOU are. For example, If you live in Boca Raton and wanna go to Downtown Miami, you have the Tri-Rail and the Metrorail. Now, if you live in Katy and wanna go to Downtown Houston you only have the BRT during rush hours (I've used this as well).

[UMdev]

Houston and Dallas right now are leading the nation in terms of job growth. Houston is number 1 at 3.2% and Dallas is number 2 at 2.1%. Miami is close to the bottom at 0.5%.