Orlando metro expected to surpass TB in future

[Del Mayberry]

I guess this is good news for you guys over there. Only problem is more suburban sprawl (cracker jack boxes)

http://www.tampabay.com/news/busines...pa-bay/1250788

[jzquince69]

are people still moving to Florida? I foresee a status quo for years to come...

[Dale]

Beats me why people are still beating down the doors to move to Orlando. It's not like there are any jobs here.

[jzquince69]

My take is that I hope they continue to build more infill projects and increase the population density in places like central Orlando and Winter Park and Maitland and continue moving this place in the right direction with regards to density. If that's a result of new people moving in, then that's great.

[Lakelander]

That article says nothing about it surpassing metro Tampa in population.

[QuantumX]

Just for the sake of clarification, here is an excerpt from the article.

"Not only can Orlando expand geographically in every direction. Not only is the region already familiar to millions. But longer term, coastal Florida will get increasingly crowded, driving more newcomers — including retiring baby boomers — into the interior of the state. And many will end up in Orlando."

Judging from this satellite photo, it looks as though both metros will become one gigantic metro by then.

image hosted on flickr

507761mainiss026e013123 by QuantumX, on Flickr

[Jasonhouse]

Look at the satellite photo above... Tampa also has few meaningful geographic barriers to further outward expansion. Tampa's development has just barely begun reaching Pinellas north of the bay in the past decade, and can expand east and north virtually at will. (and Orlando actually does have some major barriers to outward growth. They're called swamps)

But if folks would read the article, they would see that geography isn't the basis for the argument being made for an ascendant Orlando. Economic factors, and especially the disparate political realities of the two regions is.

[jzquince69]

South Florida's development pattern reminds me so much of Chicago in that photo.

As for Orlando, east Orange, the area between east and west Volusia, and parts of east Osceola are protected land; barriers. But, heading westward and north, it is mostly developed from Orlando all the way up to Ocala along 441. And, heading westward towards the southwest towards Winter Haven.

The irony is that Tampa and Orlando ala Polk are in essence densifying towards one another.

[SkyDiveJunkee]

Tampa and Orlando may be moving towards each other physically, but socially, politically, and economically these two metros are on different paths.

[Jasonhouse]

^At least for now, big time.

[Jahi98]

Interesting that the article does not mention some of the bolder efforts Orlando has started to diversify its local economy (i.e. Medical City, Creative Village, UCF and other initiatives). I think Tampa Bay has a better base to build from, but there has not been any large-scale projects to create buzz and draw new residents at the same rate that we see in Orlando.

[QuantumX]

Originally Posted by QuantumX

Just for the sake of clarification, here is an excerpt from the article.

"Not only can Orlando expand geographically in every direction. Not only is the region already familiar to millions. But longer term, coastal Florida will get increasingly crowded, driving more newcomers — including retiring baby boomers — into the interior of the state. And many will end up in Orlando."

Judging from this satellite photo, it looks as though both metros will become one gigantic metro by then.

Originally Posted by Jasonhouse

Look at the satellite photo above... Tampa also has few meaningful geographic barriers to further outward expansion. Tampa's development has just barely begun reaching Pinellas north of the bay in the past decade, and can expand east and north virtually at will. (and Orlando actually does have some major barriers to outward growth. They're called swamps)

The two metropolitans areas can form a linear link along I-4, just as South Florida's metro from Miami to West Palm Beach is linear because of those things called swamps. I flew the entire length of it flying back from Chicago a couple of months ago because storms prevented us from coming in from the west. It was surely a sight to behold. I don't see why Tampa and Orlando won't eventually do the same judging from that satellite photo.

Originally Posted by Jasonhouse

But if folks would read the article, they would see that geography isn't the basis for the argument being made for an ascendant Orlando. Economic factors, and especially the disparate political realities of the two regions is.

Originally Posted by QuantumX

Just for the sake of clarification, here is an excerpt from the article.

"Not only can Orlando expand geographically in every direction. Not only is the region already familiar to millions. But longer term, coastal Florida will get increasingly crowded, driving more newcomers — including retiring baby boomers — into the interior of the state. And many will end up in Orlando."

Judging from this satellite photo, it looks as though both metros will become one gigantic metro by then.

[TampaMike]

Originally Posted by Jahi98

Interesting that the article does not mention some of the bolder efforts Orlando has started to diversify its local economy (i.e. Medical City, Creative Village, UCF and other initiatives). I think Tampa Bay has a better base to build from, but there has not been any large-scale projects to create buzz and draw new residents at the same rate that we see in Orlando.

True. But Tampa (and Tampa Bay) also has a port, major hospitals that are nationally ranked as one of the bests in this nation, Westshore, Gateway (another business district of TB), an airport that is nationally ranked as one of the bests too, USF (which just broke the Top 50 private and public college to receive federal research funding), and UT.

I think both cities compliment each other than differ from one one another. Although I am all against the continuous sprawl in this state, it would be cool to see Tampa and Orlando combine with the growth of Lakaland and Polk. Maybe once FECI opens the Orlando to Miami HSR line, they'll start construction soon right after to Tampa. They already have studies that show its profitability and the land to build the stations, they just need to buy that land from the FDOT and also the ROW on I-4.

[QuantumX]

Originally Posted by TampaMike

Although I am all against the continuous sprawl in this state, it would be cool to see Tampa and Orlando combine with the growth of Lakaland and Polk.

When I look at that satellite photo, it looks to me as though they are almost there. They don't have to form one gigantic blob paving over that huge dark mass of swamp land to become one contiguous metropolitan area. With Lakeland-Winter Haven already along I-4, all you need really are enough homes and businesses lining I-4 between Orlando and Lakeland and Lakeland and Tampa, and you're there.

[SkyDiveJunkee]

All well and good, but what positive purpose does that serve other than to look really cool on a satellite image?

I-4 is already one of the most clogged arteries in the state, no need to make it worse. I'd much rather see each of these metro areas focus on individual metro infill, both physically and economically, develop a healthy competitive spirit, than to "merge" into one giant metro like South Florida. Tampa and Orlando metros combined is already a larger population center than South Florida.

I think it's also important to note that Orlando's identity regarding coast line has always been more associated with the space coast / Atlantic -- largely due to its proximity to Cocoa (less than an hour to the beach) and the space industries in Orlando such as Lockeed Martin.

[TampaMike]

Originally Posted by SkyDiveJunkee

All well and good, but what positive purpose does that serve other than to look really cool on a satellite image?

That was what I was thinking. Besides looking cool on satellite, what does it provide for either cities? It means likely more people clogging up I-4 to get to either city. It means more county resources being spent to fund everything needed for development in areas where it is only farm and industrial land.

The only thing that can really prevent this from happening is the drop of retirees moving to Florida and the trend of people moving closer to cities instead of outside in rural and suburban areas.

[SkyDiveJunkee]

I read an article recently (sorry, cannot locate it) that retirees have dropped in relocation to Florida in recent years, in preference for the mid-South. This will no doubt have an impact on sprawl, not to mention local politics.

[TampaMike]

Originally Posted by SkyDiveJunkee

I read an article recently (sorry, cannot locate it) that retirees have dropped in relocation to Florida in recent years, in preference for the mid-South. This will no doubt have an impact on sprawl, not to mention local politics.

I was indirectly citing that article too that I can also not find. And if the cities and state work on creating areas like Medical City and hopefully a technology hub in Tampa Bay, the state will attract for 20 and 30-somethings to the state, which are more attracted to closer downtown living, mass transit, less car dependent, and green space and cultural venues and events.

[QuantumX]

Originally Posted by SkyDiveJunkee

All well and good, but what positive purpose does that serve other than to look really cool on a satellite image?

It really doesn't serve any positive purpose other than that, but that seems to be the direction the area is going in.

[jzquince69]

Originally Posted by TampaMike

True. But Tampa (and Tampa Bay) also has a port, major hospitals that are nationally ranked as one of the bests in this nation, Westshore, Gateway (another business district of TB), an airport that is nationally ranked as one of the bests too, USF (which just broke the Top 50 private and public college to receive federal research funding), and UT.

I think both cities compliment each other than differ from one one another. Although I am all against the continuous sprawl in this state, it would be cool to see Tampa and Orlando combine with the growth of Lakeland and Polk. Maybe once FECI opens the Orlando to Miami HSR line, they'll start construction soon right after to Tampa. They already have studies that show its profitability and the land to build the stations, they just need to buy that land from the FDOT and also the ROW on I-4.

Yeah, Tampa's got the port...which is huge. Orlando used to rely on Port of Tampa for fuel (OIA) until recently, with the advent of the new Vitol fuel depot at the local Port Canaveral; there's going to be a pipeline to OIA as well. The cruise industry is huge out of that port, with much of its business originating via CFLA.

Orange County, having two Lockheed Martin plants, and all of those defense industry companies out by UCF as the core of that industry closely tied to the fed and NASA is a pretty good base to build upon. Another base to build upon is its central location for warehousing and distribution centers; CSX's new intermodal center will be down by Winter Haven. The convention industry is another huge industry here. The biomed is the new kid on the block, with major players involved including Burnham and UF. The metro has UCF, Rollins, Full Sail, and Stetson ala higher ed., along with the two law schools and other post-grad school branches. Extended metro includes Embry Riddle in Daytona. Also, the Adventist Health System- their HQ is in Maitland; Houston based MD Andersen has a location here as well at ORHS; Nemours opens next month; the new VA will also be a national training center. OIA and OSI both serve the metro with commercial flights, and OIA is of course one of the busiest in the US. The icing on the cake is the CRT along the CSX line through town, and the OBX proposal for the line shadowing US 441 (CRT and rail industrial). The FEC train to Miami will add to that industry. Add to that the established success record of major retail. Add also the world class hotel inventory- in size and branding (Four Seasons being the latest u/c). Tourism- one of the busiest if not the busiest in the world. I know I missed some stuff...

These are the factors that will drive growth in CFLA from this point forward.


Someone mentioned a future FEC Line from OIA to Tampa... I know there's an easement in the I-4 median (they put it there back in '97 when they gutted it in anticipation of future growth and 2012), but if I know anything about the FEC proposal, their main interest is to compete with Orlando-Miami flights along that route. What would they compete with between Orlando-Tampa? The drive isn't that far, and noone really flies between the two cities. Now, if the train went all the way to St. Pete, then now you're talking.