Orlando metro expected to surpass TB in future

[redstar25]

Let's not forget construction of the Dr. Philips Center for Performing Arts downtown...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ou_Bm0Vn_wI

[Jasonhouse]

Originally Posted by jzquince69

Someone mentioned a future FEC Line from OIA to Tampa... I know there's an easement in the I-4 median (they put it there back in '97 when they gutted it in anticipation of future growth and 2012), but if I know anything about the FEC proposal, their main interest is to compete with Orlando-Miami flights along that route. What would they compete with between Orlando-Tampa? The drive isn't that far, and noone really flies between the two cities. Now, if the train went all the way to St. Pete, then now you're talking.

My guess is FEC wouldn't extend their line here unless Tampa had some kind of time efficient transit connecting a downtown terminal to the airport, USF/Busch Gardens, St Pete and the beaches.

[Jahi98]

Originally Posted by Jasonhouse

My guess is FEC wouldn't extend their line here unless Tampa had some kind of time efficient transit connecting a downtown terminal to the airport, USF/Busch Gardens, St Pete and the beaches.

Yes, I think the I-4 median should be preserved for inter-city rail, but we need a well-developed local system here in Tampa Bay for it to be viable.

[Jasonhouse]

Maybe they could be enticed into extending to Tampa if they were able to control a bunch of land around the station, and draw in revenue that way.

[bayviews]

Originally Posted by Dale

Beats me why people are still beating down the doors to move to Orlando. It's not like there are any jobs here.

Its pretty well known that Orlando's growth has been driven mostly by Puerto Rican migration, both moving up from Puerto Rico & moving down from NYC, the Northeast, & the Midwest.

Tampa-St Pete also get substantial PR migration but not at the same pace as Orlando, thus Orlando's pulling ahead.

[Lakelander]

It's more than Puerto Rican migration that's resulting in Orlando growing faster than Tampa. Nevertheless, it will still take Orlando's MSA a while to catch up to the Bay area in population.

Originally Posted by Jasonhouse

Maybe they could be enticed into extending to Tampa if they were able to control a bunch of land around the station, and draw in revenue that way.

My guess is if AAF's Orlando-Miami line is successful, they expand to Jax before Tampa. I say this because they already own all the existing track needed, a ton of land around potential station sites and it's an opportunity to tap into Daytona Beach and St. Augustine's tourism markets.

[sam06pr]

Originally Posted by Lakelander

It's more than Puerto Rican migration that's resulting in Orlando growing faster than Tampa. Nevertheless, it will still take Orlando's MSA a while to catch up to the Bay area in population.
.

True. While Puerto Ricans are a factor to Orlando's growth (due to the bad economy in the island) We are not the sole reason for Orlando's substantial growth. It is a mixed of things. Orlando is becoming a more recognized international city thanks to our theme parks. Brazilians have been buying some property and I have seem some even move over here. I feel as if Orlando has more jobs to offer than Tampa thanks to our robust tourism. Many of my friends have moved from all over Florida to Orlando because they found jobs here...so yeah.

[Dale]

I've lived in Orlando, for ten years now, and beats the hell out of me why everyone wants to move here.

[jzquince69]

Originally Posted by Dale

I've lived in Orlando, for ten years now, and beats the hell out of me why everyone wants to move here.

...I've been here for about 15 years (feels like 5). I often wonder the same thing- jobs-wise, that is. I flip flop on this issue a lot.


as for the overtaking of Tampa issue, I don't see it ever happening, logistically.

[Lakelander]

I think being "new" (in terms of urban growth), a fairly progressive government, and the excitement of the area's tourist attractions and the environment it creates to outsiders play a big role in Orlando's popularity.

[redstar25]

Originally Posted by jzquince69

...I've been here for about 15 years (feels like 5). I often wonder the same thing- jobs-wise, that is. I flip flop on this issue a lot.


as for the overtaking of Tampa issue, I don't see it ever happening, logistically.

Logistics are exactly why the Orlando Metro will surpass the Tampa Metro: Orlando's potential East/West expansion boundaries are the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, Orlando becoming the transportation hub of the state, a rapidly diversifying economy, etc... Good or bad... it is happening quickly. But What I think is really happening is the creation of a Florida Megalopolis.

[Dale]

I don't deny that Orlando is growing. It must somehow be generating jobs. But in my daily rounds I just don't see it. Seems like just about everyone I know is living month-to-month or sucking wind. Just yesterday, my neighbors told me that they cancelled their CELLPHONES. They had to borrow mine to make an emergency call.

[CubanBread]

Orlando is growing fast, and at a faster pace than Tampa, but Tampa's metro is also growing fast... And while if both these metros continue to grow at the same speed, Orlando will eventually pass Tampa, but it's not anytime soon .. In fact it's years and years away.

[jzquince69]

the way I see it, is that by the time Orlando comes close to overtaking Tampa metro, the two metros will merge and there won't be any way to distinguish the boundary between the two, and together they'll be much larger than SoFla. Technically, the I-4 corridor already is.

[sam06pr]

HA! I can actually picture that

[jzquince69]

Right now, regarding FEC, there's an issue regarding the final alignment from Brevard into OIA. FEC is leaning toward using the south boundary of 528 into OIA as the final stretch, but the Ranch people want it cutting through the middle of their property from Melbourne.

I think the deal will get done.

Anyway, if they decide to extend to Tampa, I would definitely do what HSR wasn't planning to do: extend straight into TPA. There, they can rent a car at the airport.

[I-275westcoastfl]

Orlando is a fuck logic situation, why would anyone want to live inland in Florida? But the irony is it takes the same amount of time to get to the beach despite Orlando being fufther because of Tampa's poor road network. But having been to Orlando many times its a much better city than Tampa. The roads are better, better highway network, more development (despite being more tourist oriented, the airport is bigger and better.

[brickell]

Here's a simplistic growth model for Florida's 15 largest MSAs based on growth between 2000 and 2010. src: http://proximityone.com/metros0010.htm

I'm using absolute change instead of % of growth. I suppose I could do both later though. You can see that Orlando doesn't overtake Tampa until 2080... There's some other interesting gainers to keep an eye on though.

2000 rank
1 Miami
2 Tampa
3 Orlando
4 Jacksonville
5 Sarasota
6 Lakeland
7 Palm Bay
8 Daytona
9 Ft. Myers
10 Pensacola
11 Tallahassee
12 Port St Lucie
13 Ocala
14 Naples
15 Gainesville

2010 rank with rank change from previous decade
1 Miami
2 Tampa
3 Orlando
4 Jacksonville
5 Sarasota
6 Ft. Myers 3
7 Lakeland -1
8 Palm Bay -1
9 Daytona -1
10 Pensacola
11 Port St Lucie 1
12 Tallahassee -1
13 Ocala
14 Naples
15 Gainesville



2020 rank
1 Miami
2 Tampa
3 Orlando
4 Jacksonville
5 Sarasota
6 Ft. Myers
7 Lakeland
8 Palm Bay
9 Daytona
10 Port St Lucie 1
11 Pensacola -1
12 Tallahassee
13 Ocala
14 Naples
15 Gainesville


2030 rank
1 Miami
2 Tampa
3 Orlando
4 Jacksonville
5 Ft. Myers 1
6 Sarasota -1
7 Lakeland
8 Palm Bay
9 Port St Lucie 1
10 Daytona -1
11 Pensacola
12 Ocala 1
13 Naples 1
14 Tallahassee -2
15 Gainesville


2040 rank
1 Miami
2 Tampa
3 Orlando
4 Jacksonville
5 Ft. Myers
6 Sarasota
7 Lakeland
8 Palm Bay
9 Port St Lucie
10 Daytona
11 Pensacola
12 Ocala
13 Naples
14 Tallahassee
15 Gainesville

2050 rank
1 Miami
2 Tampa
3 Orlando
4 Jacksonville
5 Ft. Myers
6 Sarasota
7 Lakeland
8 Port St Lucie 1
9 Palm Bay -1
10 Daytona
11 Ocala 1
12 Naples 1
13 Pensacola -2
14 Tallahassee
15 Gainesville

2060 rank
1 Miami
2 Tampa
3 Orlando
4 Jacksonville
5 Ft. Myers
6 Sarasota
7 Lakeland
8 Port St Lucie
9 Palm Bay
10 Daytona
11 Ocala
12 Naples
13 Pensacola
14 Tallahassee
15 Gainesville

2070 rank
1 Miami
2 Tampa
3 Orlando
4 Jacksonville
5 Ft. Myers
6 Sarasota
7 Lakeland
8 Port St Lucie
9 Palm Bay
10 Daytona
11 Ocala
12 Naples
13 Pensacola
14 Tallahassee
15 Gainesville

2080 rank
1 Miami
2 Orlando 1
3 Tampa -1
4 Jacksonville
5 Ft. Myers
6 Sarasota
7 Lakeland
8 Port St Lucie
9 Palm Bay
10 Daytona
11 Ocala
12 Naples
13 Pensacola
14 Tallahassee
15 Gainesville

2090 rank
1 Miami
2 Orlando
3 Tampa
4 Jacksonville
5 Ft. Myers
6 Sarasota
7 Lakeland
8 Port St Lucie
9 Palm Bay
10 Ocala 1
11 Daytona -1
12 Naples
13 Tallahassee 1
14 Pensacola -1
15 Gainesville

2110 rank
1 Miami
2 Orlando
3 Tampa
4 Jacksonville
5 Ft. Myers
6 Sarasota
7 Lakeland
8 Port St Lucie
9 Palm Bay
10 Ocala
11 Naples 1
12 Daytona -1
13 Tallahassee
14 Pensacola
15 Gainesville

[jzquince69]

By 2080, Florida will sink back into the Atlantic Ocean and cease to exist.

[brickell]

Originally Posted by jzquince69

By 2080, Florida will sink back into the Atlantic Ocean and cease to exist.

Sorry. Excel doesn't have a global warming function. But yeah, predicting anything past 10 to 20 years is kind of silly. But I think it was an interesting thought exercise to show that Orlando does have a lot of catching up to do if it wants to pass Tampa.