The Philippine Stock Exchange and the PHP/Foreign Currency Exchange

[3cr]

Stocks shine as Thais, Filipinos nurture stability
Inquirer
http://business.inquirer.net/87970/s...ture-stability

BANGKOK —The two Asian nations with the region’s best-performing stock markets in the past year are unlikely havens for investors: Thailand and the Philippines. Both are better known for troubled politics and natural disasters, but have outshone higher-octane neighbors as new leaders nurture relative calm.

The PSE benchmark in the Philippines has soared 29 percent in the last 12 months and Thailand’s SET index is up a whopping 33 percent. By contrast, an index compiled by MSCI that tracks stocks in 12 Asian countries is up a ho-hum 2 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index in rising power China has sunk nearly 14 percent.

The Philippines, long regarded as an economic backwater blighted by a succession of deeply corrupt governments, has gained a measure of credibility due to the stability ushered in by the 2010 election of President Benigno Aquino III. Analysts credit him with boosting investor confidence by cracking down on corruption and living up to his promises of openness and good governance.

Thailand too has benefited from an improvement in its politics, although it’s unclear whether the current stability will be enduring. The country seemed to be veering toward civil war in 2010 when deadly street battles raged in Bangkok between the army and loyalists of Thaksin Shinawatra, the populist prime minister ousted in a 2006 coup.

Local stock brokers were resigned to the Thai market lagging its potential but the landslide election victory in 2011 of a pro-Thaksin party and the popularity of the country’s first female prime minister, Thaksin’s younger sister Yingluck, have boosted confidence. Lately, Thai stocks have also got a fillip from big-spending government policies that include efforts to overhaul flood defenses after a widespread inundation wrecked industry last year.

For both countries, the perception abroad that they have become a bit less risky has drawn renewed attention to their selling points.

One of the high notes for the Philippines is its newly minted status as a creditor nation, the first time in 40 years. Its foreign currency reserves total $80 billion, while foreign debt is about $65 billion. Theoretically, the country could pay off all its foreign obligations and still have $15 billion in cash left over, said Alfred Dy, head of Philippines research at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.

“It’s the opposite of the countries in the West, where there’s a lot of external debt,” Dy said.

The country’s accumulation of foreign exchange is driven by two sources: remittances, or money sent home to the Philippines by citizens who work abroad, and the dramatic growth in outsourcing.

The remittance trend began as early as the 1960s, when Filipino nurses traveled to the US to work the night shifts at hospitals—hours that American nurses didn’t want to work. Today, more than one in 10 Filipinos out of a population of 95 million lives abroad for work. They sent home $20 billion in 201—more than double the amount in 2004.

The fact that they are spread across the world—in the Middle East, in America, throughout Asia—also spreads the risk if a particular region goes into an economic slump.

Meanwhile, a boom in business outsourcing, enabled by the high level of English proficiency in the Philippines and its young workforce, racked up $14 billion in 2011—soaring from $3 billion that was earned just seven years ago. The Philippines now rivals India as a global outsourcing giant.

These trends have insulated the Philippine economy from the export-reliant doldrums being experienced elsewhere in Asia.

“We don’t rely as much as other countries on exports,” Dy said. “It’s really more of a service economy, it’s sending people abroad and getting contracts on business outsourcing, which makes the Philippines a bit unique.”

“Even if the global economy slows down, we think these two items will be relatively resilient compared to traditional exports,” he said.

In Thailand, the government’s drive to boost investment and growth after massive flooding decimated industry last year has helped to make it a favorite of stock investors.

Thailand’s economy shrank 10.7 percent in the last quarter of 2011 after the country’s worst flooding in more than half a century disrupted operations at more than 1,000 factories, bringing the country’s key automotive and computer parts industries close to a halt.

But ever-resilient Thailand is bouncing back. The Asian Development Bank predicts Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy will grow 5.2 percent this year and 5 percent in 2013.

Investors view positively measures Thailand has taken to increase domestic consumption, such as raising the daily minimum wage to 300 baht ($10) and offering rebates to first-time car buyers.

“It’s enabled households to have more disposable income and spend more,” said Frederick Gibson, associate economist at Moody’s Analytics. “I think the market has taken that as a positive sign, that households will have the ability to spend and that hopefully will have a positive impact on growth.”

Thailand’s public debt load as a percent of the economy—relatively low at 40 percent—means the government has the leeway to undertake expansionary fiscal policies, such as corporate tax cuts and other measures, said economist Eugene Leow of DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore.

The country also has mapped out major infrastructure projects, including flood prevention measures, in the next few years.

“There are a lot of projects in the pipeline,” Leow said. “All these projects will cushion any slowdown.”

So of the two stock markets, which might be the better bet for investors wanting to take the plunge into Southeast Asian equities?

Herald van der Linde, head of equity strategy for Asia Pacific at HSBC, said he believes the Philippines stock market has become one of the most expensive in the world.

Van der Linde especially likes Thai banks since demand for financial services is growing fast. Like elsewhere in Asia, Thais have begun to invest in their own local markets and investment products, breaking from the traditional way of stashing wealth into houses and land, van der Linde said.

“Thailand, coming from a low base, is not that expensive yet. So if I had to put my money somewhere, I would put it in Thailand,” he said.

[3cr]

Peso, stocks end in record territory
PhilStar
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx...ticleId=860546

MANILA, Philippines - The local financial markets soared to new highs yesterday as investors continued to swamp risky assets on the back of positive news abroad.

The peso broke into a fresh 55-month high yesterday, breaking its record set just last Tuesday. The currency finished at 41.185 to the dollar, 14.50 centavos stronger than the previous day’s close of 41.33.

The peso was last seen this strong on March 11, 2008 when it ended trading at 41.20.

At the stock market, the 30-company Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) breached past the 5,400-threshold and briefly flirted at a new all-time high before closing 38.44 points or 0.71 percent higher at 5,438.38.

The main index hit an intra-day high of 5,445.95, just above the record close of 5,443.74 set last Oct.4.

Within the day, the peso likewise reached its highest level at 41.16 against the greenback, and the lowest, at 41.26.

“The regional currencies strengthened (yesterday) on the back of good US corporate earnings and the decision of Moody’s to keep Spain (at) investment grade,” a trader at the local bank said in a phone interview.

Moody’s Investors Service kept debt-ridden Spain’s rating at Baa3, with a negative outlook, as it noted of euro zone’s support “to allow the government to maintain capital market access at reasonable rates, providing it with the time it needs to stabilize public debt over the next few years.”

Spain has been struggling to contain a euro-wide debt crisis from affecting its weak banks, which in turn were suffering from a housing bubble that burst few years back. This has strapped the economy with much-needed credit to finance economic growth.

The trader said “the market felt BSP’s intervention earlier in the day,” but this did not prevent the peso from reaching new highs.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), despite keeping a generally market-determined exchange rate, has been buying dollars to keep the peso from appreciating too much that it may cause business disruptions.

A strong peso, while making imports cheaper, also trims the value of dollar export earnings and remittances when they are converted into the local money.

Since the last trading day of 2011, the peso has already appreciated 6.06 percent, making it one of Asia’s best performing currencies.

Similar to forex trading, equities market around Asia rose yesterday on better-than-expected earnings from US corporate giants and growing speculation that Spain is finally ready to ask for financial aid.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.4 percent to 8,822.35. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained one percent to 21,411.26 and South Korea’s Kospi added 0.7 percent to 1,955.94.

On Wall St., meanwhile, stocks rose on higher-than-expected third-quarter earnings for Goldman Sachs and several other blue chips. On top of that came a report that consumer prices barely rose last month. That not only gives consumers more money to spend — it also leaves the Federal Reserve the room to continue its economy-boosting efforts without the risk of sparking inflation.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 1 percent to close Tuesday at 13,551.78. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 1 percent to close at 1,454.92. The Nasdaq composite index rose 1.2 percent to close at 3,101.17.

Spain, mired in a deep recession and high unemployment, has become the latest flashpoint in the two-year European crisis due to fears that its debt problems could spiral out of control.

Investors are hoping that Spain will bite the bullet and ask for financial aid, which Madrid has been reluctant to do because of harsh terms that it might have to agree to in exchange for the help.

Instead, the government has introduced a series of austerity measures in a bid to bring down its deficit and convince investors it can manage its finances without outside help. The European Central Bank has offered to buy unlimited amounts of debt by struggling European countries, including Spain, to help lower their borrowing costs — but governments first must apply for a bailout.

“Risk assets registered further gains in the wake of speculation that Spain is close to requesting aid,” said analysts at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong in a market commentary. They said that positive economic data and third-quarter earnings from the US also boosted investment sentiment.

Asian investors were also placing bets that an upcoming leadership change in China will usher in a new wave of stimulus measures to help the economy, such as greater investment in infrastructure and housing.

Investors expect to hear more about the economy during the Communist Party congress that opens Nov. 8, when President Hu Jintao will step down as party boss and Vice President Xi Jinping will succeed him. The setting of the date, after a month-long delay due to political uncertainty, has calmed stock markets whose fortunes are closely tied to China.

“Now that the date is set, investors interpret that as they are now formulating policies to stimulate the economy,” said Jackson Wong, vice president at Tanrich Securities in Hong Kong.

Wong said that stimulus is unlikely to be monetary easing, such as that undertaken by the US Federal Reserve, because Chinese leaders are concerned about inflation.

[Bosnyboy]

Thanks to puregold's APM stock and Yehey debuts. These are real money makers many times over for those who invested in them in the last couple of days. Im sure profits from just these two stocks would be enuf to buy some new luxury items.

[nayki]

was not able to buy that Yehey stocks.. Congrats to all who made profit on those stocks!

[juniordiscovery]

Fearless Forecast: PSEi At 10,000


image courtesy of http://www.telegraph.co.uk

Online brokerage firm COL Financial, formerly Citiseconline.com, expects the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) to hit 10,000 by 2016, almost double the current level.

According to COL Financial president Conrado Bate, they are optimistic that the fearless forecast will happen because, “for the first time in the history of the Philippines, we enjoy a credit rating which is just one notch below investment grade.”

He noted that this is a consequence of the steady improvement in the country’s finances. This includes the country’s foreign exchange reserves which have increased 5 times since 2005, thanks to the strength of remittances and the business process outsourcing sector.

http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/379968...0#.UJaLOGfyF15

[anakngpasig]

...and yet again

PSEi closes at new record high

8:58 pm | Monday, November 5th, 2012

MANILA, Philippines—The local stock market closed at a new record high of 5,457.82 on Monday as investors resumed loading up on blue chips in a robust stream of third-quarter profit results as well as prospects of strong third-quarter domestic economic growth and sovereign investment grade rating.

The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index gained 33.31 points, or 0.61 percent, to post its 24th all-time high for the year, defying sluggish regional markets amid jitters over a tight US presidential race.

In intraday trade, the PSEi hit a high of 5,483.93, retesting but failing to breach the record peak of 5,484.63 posted on October 5. The main index, nevertheless, posted its best finish in history, beating the earlier record close of 5,443.74 on October 4.

Philippine Daily Inquirer

[Monchhichi]

Market continues bull run, hits new record high
MANILA, Philippines - Local stocks hit a new record high for the second straight trading session yesterday and for the 25th time this year.
Analysts said the market was buoyed by benign inflation and upbeat news on third quarter corporate earnings.
The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi), a basket of 30 stocks regarded as the benchmark of the market’s overall performance, advanced by another 0.29 percent or 15.79 points to settle at 5,473.61 from 5,457.82 a day ago.
The broader all-shares index gained 0.32 percent of 11.30 points to end at 3,595.47.
“The inflation report, economic news and corporate news basically continue to give investor confidence,” Astro C. del Castillo, managing director of First Grade Finance Inc., said in a phone interview.
“There was a positive outlook for earnings because we are in the earnings season,” said Justino Calaycay Jr., analyst at Accord Capital Equities Inc., said in a phone interview.
Del Castillo said the market traded sideways but on an upward bias given the slew of positive news.
For instance, Philippine inflation slowed to a four-month low of 3.1 percent in October from 3.6 percent in September and June’s 2.8 percent due to the deceleration in the annual increases recorded in the heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages index, the National Statistics Office said.
Calaycay said benign inflation gives the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas elbow room to cut rates anew, which will benefit the stock market.
Advancers outpaced decliners, 96 to 78, while 35 stocks did not change.
Turnover slightly fell, with 11.98 billion shares worth P8.37 billion changing hands, compared with 8.62 billion shares worth P8.65 billion on Monday.
Del Castillo said foreign investors are still waiting for the result of the tightly contested US presidential election.
All subindices, save for the property sector that dropped 0.95 percent or 20.07 points to 2,091.92, were in the green. - By Neil Jerome C. Morales (Philstar News Service, www.philstar.com)
http://ph.news.yahoo.com/market-cont...160545263.html

[anakngpasig]

OMG, finally magkakaroon na ng Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) sa Pilipinas

http://pse.com.ph/resource/memos/2012/CN_2012-0057.pdf

[Monchhichi]

Peso advances on Obama win
MANILA, Philippines - Optimism on the re-election of US President Barack Obama drove investors to risky assets such as the peso, which closed to a 56-month high against the greenback yesterday.

The local currency hit 41.06 to a dollar yesterday, 15 centavos higher than Tuesday’s 41.21. This was the peso’s strongest performance since March 7, 2008 when it hit 40.85.

Dollars traded reached $968 million, also higher than previous day’s $750.70 million.

“This is market’s initial reaction to the re-election of Obama. Basically, it is back to risk-on sentiment,” a bank trader said in a phone interview. “The re-election paves the way to addressing the problems facing the US economy such as the ‘fiscal cliff,’ issues of Iran tensions and dealings with the change of leadership in China,” he added.

“The market is more comfortable seeing the incumbent at the helm because they know he (Obama) is familiar with the issues that need to be addressed.”

Democrat Obama notched a second four-year term at the White House yesterday, defeating his Republican rival Mitt Romney in a tight race, according to projections of major television networks.

Facing Obama is a sluggish US economy characterized by slow growth, huge unemployment rate, and trillions in budget deficit and debts which could be worsened once tax breaks expire and spending cuts kick in later this year.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said it would be “difficult to say” how the US election results would affect long-term capital inflows which have also driven the local bourse to new-highs last Monday and Tuesday.

It is not just a question of political leadership but also the national psyche of pursuing more savings and more investments to sustain the recovery,” Guinigundo said in a text message.

“At the same time, it would also be necessary for the US consumers to regain confidence and start spending again. This is rather a difficult call because of tight labor market in the US,” he added.

The bank trader said the peso could test the 40-peso level against the dollar today, but stressed the BSP “will always be there” to intervene.

BSP, which has a 42-45 exchange rate assumption this year, has been buying dollars to tame the peso’s appreciation, which if proven too much could trim the value of dollar export earnings and remittances from overseas Filipinos.
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx...bCategoryId=66

[leofriends]

Philippine stocks up on selective buying

By Doris C. Dumlao
Philippine Daily Inquirer
7:55 pm | Thursday, November 8th, 2012

MANILA, Philippines—The local stocks index firmed up on Thursday after a weak opening on the back of selective buying of large-cap stocks.

The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index closed 9.42 points, or 0.17 percent, higher at 5,446.71. The index reversed early session losses on the back of hefty gains posted by Banco de Oro (+4.15 percent) and ALI (+4.04 percent).

BDO share price was boosted by an ongoing realignment of shares within the Sy family into designated holding firms. For its part, ALI attracted strong interest on the back of strong nine-month earnings.

First Gen, Megaworld, ICTSI and JG Summit also contributed to the day’s gains.

On the other hand, the PSEi laggers were SM Development, Meralco, AGI, URC, DMCI, Metrobank, Manila Water, Petron, Globe and Belle. PLDT also continued to trade with caution ahead of a public hearing on the compliance framework on foreign equity limits in the aftermath of a recent Supreme Court ruling.

Outside the PSEi, APM was an outperformer for the day, rising by 18.45 percent as the company explained the proposed change in par value. FPH (+1.34 percent) likewise gained in heavy volume.

Value turnover for the day amounted to P6.46 billion. Despite the modest PSEi gain, overall market was mostly sluggish as there were only 51 advancers versus 99 decliners.

http://business.inquirer.net/91946/p...lective-buying

[Monchhichi]

Philippine Stocks seen testing record highs

Local stocks are seen retesting record highs this week as investors selectively sift through rich valuations in the market.
Last week, the main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index gained 0.82 percent to 5,468.79 on the back of good third-quarter income results and a benign inflation rate.
BPI Securities said that this week, the Philippine market “may continue to traverse the upward trend as spending for the holiday season is approaching.”
Freya May Natividad, an analyst at 2TradeAsia.com said the 5,400 zone was likely to be supported this week by funding windows that have been opened to emerging markets such as the Philippines, citing a $1-billion risk-sharing facility announced by IFC and Citi Global to help boost trade in emerging markets through 2015. “This might help support ascents to 5,500, barring unforeseen negative events,” Natividad said. Immediate support is 5,400 and resistance at 5,500, she said.
AB Capital Securities analyst Gregg Ilag, on the other hand, said since valuation multiples have expanded significantly this year, a further upside might be limited.
“The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) was trading at 14x 2012 earnings during the start of the year and is now at 17x. We think that additional multiple expansions for this year are improbable unless 2012 earnings are upgraded. Given that earnings were generally in line with expectations, upgrades on earning projections are unlikely,” Ilag said.
A price to earnings multiple of 17x means that investors are paying 17 times the amount of money the market will make in a given year.
From a technical perspective, Ilag said there might be consolidation between 5,400 and 5,450. “Momentum indicators are showing a near-term positive divergence but are near the overbought territory,” Ilag said.
Ilag said investors should remain selective in buying equities. The brokerage has a “buy” recommendaiton on JG Summit and Ayala Corp.—Doris C. Dumlao
http://business.inquirer.net/92480/p...g-record-highs

[Monchhichi]

Peso weakens over reports of Japan’s stalling economy

MANILA, Philippines—The peso weakened slightly on the first trading day of the week following reports that the Japanese economy contracted in the third quarter.
The local currency closed at 41.075 against the US dollar, down by 2.5 centavos from Friday’s finish of 41.05:$1.
Intraday high hit 41.06:$1, while intraday low settled at 41.13:$1.
Volume of trade amounted to $805.1 million from $834.24 million previously.
The decline of the peso came after the release of reports saying that the economy of Japan contracted by 3.5 percent in the third quarter from a year ago.
Traders said the discouraging performance of Japan, a key export market, dampened outlook even for emerging markets like the Philippines. Its contraction is blamed partly on weakness of the global economy that has dragged export earnings of Japanese firms and on weak domestic demand.
The contraction of the Japanese economy indicated that global economic problems led by the crisis in the eurozone have weighed down on the performance even of Asian markets, traders said.
Market players said, nonetheless, that the peso would likely remain stronger this year than its level in 2011. The local currency is expected to stay within the 41-to-a-dollar territory in the coming weeks, if not the rest of the year, given the Philippine economy’s relatively favorable performance so far this year.
The Philippines grew by 6.1 percent in the first half from a year ago.
At Monday’s close of 41.075, the peso has appreciated by over 6 percent from 43.84:$1 in the last trading day of 2011.
http://business.inquirer.net/92626/p...alling-economy

[Monchhichi]

PSE profits more than double as of Sept
MANILA, Philippines - The Philippine Stock Exchange, Inc. (PSE) realized a 103% growth in its net income to P484.95 million in the nine months to September from a year ago.

Revenues of the PSE went up 39% to P833.98 million, while cost and expenses increased by 4% to P321.28 million. Other income of the firm also ballooned 171% to P101.13 million from P37.29 million.

"While the company has benefited tremendously from the favorable economic environment and sky-high optimism in the Philippines, we hope to further sustain the profitability of our operations as we continuously work to introduce new products and put in place corporate governance enhancements in the market," PSE President and Chief Executive Officer Hans B. Sicat said in a statement.

A bullish outlook on the economy helped drive listing-related revenues up by 61.3% to P406.05 million, while service fees climbed 25% to P233.51 million.

PSE also booked P148.75 million in trading revenues and P29.907 million in regulatory fees during the current nine-month period.

"The PSE continues to be committed to excellence and prudent financial management as it endeavors to improve its financial performance every year to provide value to its shareholders," Sicat said.
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/...re-double-sept

[garzland]

Anyone here knows how to invest in stocks? Kindly share po...

[calaguyo]

^First, dapat may pera ka kahit 5K. Then take advantage of these brokers listed below where investing/trading can be done conveniently anytime and anywhere!

Citiseconline
BPI Trade
Philstocks

I'm not sure of others. Opening an account is easy as ABC.

Goodluck!

PS. Asan na yung 5500 rally ng PSE by end of this week??

[anakngpasig]

looks like the 5500 is a strong resistance level for now. the index should fly once it's breached.

[garzland]

Originally Posted by calaguyo

^First, dapat may pera ka kahit 5K. Then take advantage of these brokers listed below where investing/trading can be done conveniently anytime and anywhere!

Citiseconline
BPI Trade
Philstocks

I'm not sure of others. Opening an account is easy as ABC.

Goodluck!

PS. Asan na yung 5500 rally ng PSE by end of this week??

Thanks for this info, sir!

[anakngpasig]

...and PSEi closed at 5,500.58 today!

[calaguyo]

^Good, but my property stock went down

[anakngpasig]

what a great week for stocks! PSEi closed friday at 5,552.34 napasilip ako bigla sa portfolio ko lol.