The Philippine Stock Exchange and the PHP/Foreign Currency Exchange

[calaguyo]

5800 level! Here we come!!!

Hehe!

[fieldsofdreams]

Looks like the stock market has not lost its steam indeed. Perhaps it could break the 6,000 level by the New Year, what do you think?

[calaguyo]

Originally Posted by fieldsofdreams

Looks like the stock market has not lost its steam indeed. Perhaps it could break the 6,000 level by the New Year, what do you think?

Our stocks value still has huge potential as PH economy has emerged to be one of economies with strong and sustainable growth.

The resistance has just actually broken for PSE and this expected to soar even higher faster than expected.

[Bosnyboy]

Theres just no stopping the philippine stock market train. As of now 1026am dec11,2012, index stands at 5,824 points. Needless to say its another record!!! Sayang i sold some of my holdings yest, thinking market was correcting.

[calaguyo]

5,825.48 up by 67.94

Its a season for medium to long term buy!

[nayki]

Ako naman medyo tulog mga hawak ko stocks,,

[3cr]

Nomura says Philippine stock market has 'run its course'
InterAksyon.com
http://www.interaksyon.com/business/...run-its-course

MANILA - A top Japanese investment bank said the Philippine stock market may be losing its luster, with the local bourse overpriced even as the country is in a sweet spot on account of its strong economy.

In a research note, Nomura said things are going well for the Philippines, with the reform agenda taking place, a lower cost of capital, stable currency, improvement in the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Index and higher foreign investor interest.

Nomura said the Philippines' economic momentum would stretch until 2013, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth pegged at above potential of 6 percent, mainly driven by the public-private partnership (PPP) projects and higher fiscal spending ahead of the May elections.

The country's rosy growth story has attracted huge capital inflows, as seen in the Philippine Stock Exchange composite index hitting new record highs at least 35 times this year.

However, this has made the PSE look "frothy" and its outperformance "may have run its course for now," Nomura said.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of local companies is already at 16.5 times - the highest in Asean, and at an 18 percent premium to long-term averages. Relative to its neighbors, the PSE's P/E ratio is close to all-time highs and is even higher than what Indonesia reached at its peak.

On a price-to-book value basis, the PSE is the second-most expensive market in the region, and at the largest premium to long-term averages at 39 percent.

In terms of equity penetration, the market capitalization to GDP has already crossed above 100 percent, which is the highest in the region.

How investors have priced Philippine companies may not be standing on solid ground since return on equity (ROE) and earnings growth of PSE-listed companies are "really mid-tier" compared with its peers in the region, Nomura said.

"At similar levels of ROE (15-17 percent), we find China, India and Thailand equities at much more attractive valuations," the Japanese investment bank said.

"We believe this extreme valuation premium is primarily because of investors’ dim and worsening outlook for the rest of the region (particularly the more cyclical markets) which is likely to prove too pessimistic," Nomura said.

It advised its clients to become underweight on the Philippines given that the local bourse is already overpriced amid risks that one, extrapolation of reform momentum can be fraught with risk; and two, the strong GDP growth "does not necessarily translate" to strong stock market.

Inflation is also expected to rise by the second half of next year, averaging at 4.4 percent from 3.2 percent in 2012 due demand-side pressures. Even if this is still within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) target of 3-5 percent, there are still upside risks such as above-trend growth and the hike in sin taxes.

Other risks include the slowdown in the second half of next year, which would likely aggravate the unattractiveness of Philippine equities. Add to that, the BSP is putting additional macro-prudential measures to curb the rapid pace of foreign buying.

Because of these factors, Thailand is still Nomura's preferred market.

[leofriends]

6,000 mark is highly possible before the year ends.. 2012 IS THE YEAR OF THE PSEi..

[calaguyo]

As of lunchtime of today, PSE is on its half-way mark towards 5900!

5,855.08 Up by 23.58 points.

Biggest gainer is the property sector which is up by whooping 57.85 points!

Top Property Stock Gainers:
Ayala Land Inc. up by 3.46%
Megaworld Corp. up by 3.97%

[3cr]

The low-down on the market 'bull run' and PNoy's anti-mining stance
By: Noel G. Reyes
InterAksyon.com
http://www.interaksyon.com/business/...-mining-stance

It’s true that the PSE index has been ratcheting all-time highs almost every day for the past weeks but this really doesn’t mean much when, as it does so, the number of declining stocks outnumber or equal the number of rising stocks.

The market has been very mixed as it climbed to new peaks, with no clear market leader taking the pole position. Each day, a new sector of the market takes the point while the previous day’s leader suffers a reversal and get left in the wayside. At the same time, a number of blue-chip stocks never even gets to participate in the market run-up. In short, there is no true bull market, only a few notable outperformers, and the PSE index does not in any way reflect this reality.

But what about the “unexpected” 7.1 percent surge in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter? Isn’t that a positive event that would justify a further market run-up? It remains to be seen. The main driver on the demand side was government spending, which expanded the most by 12 percent in real inflation-adjusted terms. Household consumption was second with half of that, at 6.2 percent.

Investment in fixed capital and inventories, technically termed as “gross capital formation,” was the slowest among the three major demand components of GDP, with 4.3 percent growth in the third quarter. Investment ratio, or the percentage of investment to GDP, improved to 19.9 percent - almost reaching its long-term level of 20 percent after dropping to even below 15 percent during the recent slowdown.

Out of gas

The crucial question is what would happen to economic growth momentum when government spending runs out of gas. People who think government deficit-spending is akin to a perpetual motion machine probably still write to Santa, postmarked the North Pole.

What about the billions of pesos raised this year in the market via initial public offerings, secondary or follow-on offerings, equity carve-outs, etc? Are these not indicative of an expansionary mood among private sector businesses?

Not really. In most instances, these equity offerings have either been earmarked for debt refinancing - meaning no new capital investments - or were done by selling shareholders who were reducing their holdings or exiting the company entirely.

It must also be recognized that the Aquino administration is not that fully committed to its pro-business pronouncements. This may be seen in the ongoing travails of the extractives sector. Even as the PSE index ascended to fresh peaks, the mining index this year has tunnelled to bedrock bottom.

Its downward spiral has not been due to metal prices abroad – in fact, gold is set to record an annual rise for the nth year in a row and copper is gaining upward momentum as China’s economy recovers. The sole reason for the mining sector’s woes is the anti-mining stance of the government, evidenced by its new mining rules, ongoing ban on new mining licenses, among others.

Myopic

Funny though, the government does not seem to know its own anti-mining proclivities. This seems to be the case as the agency in charge of the sector had to backpedal on its target of $2 billion in mining investments this year after the latest figures showed a 50 percent plunge to $160 million in the first half. The government agency admitted that “uncertainties surrounding the government's mining policies” were to blame for the huge shortfall. Well, duh.

It stands to reason that the government’s “substantial” lean towards the cause of the anti-mining environmentalists would leave no room for compromise with the “pollutive” mining sector. This absence-of-a-middle-ground policy is a bit myopic: the environmentalists state that we ought to leave nature pristine for our children’s children and our grandchildren’s grandchildren.

But so long as gold prices remain elevated at over $1,700 an ounce – valuing one listed mining company’s ore reserves underground at over P250 billion – and so long as man remains motivated by profits, then it’s quite obvious that if we don’t mine it now, then it would surely be dug from the ground by our grandchildren’s grandchildren. Mining the gold cannot be stopped. The only thing to do is to make sure that the extraction will be responsibly done.

Nonetheless, since the Aquino administration has effectively boosted the risk premium on mining investments by injecting a hefty serving of political risk into the equation, investors would be better off deferring their capital outlays for the sector for the remainder of his term.

Given that the market’s continued ascent pushes it further and further into overvalued territory, it comes as no surprise that professional fund managers, the so-called “smart money,” remain highly sceptical of the market’s sustainability at current levels. Instead of asking, “What is good to buy in the market,” the correct question is, “When do I sell?”

[Bosnyboy]

Stock prices are retreating, run is almost over i guess. Sa aking palagay lang kaya nagbentahan na lahat kasi malapit na pasko kailangan na ng pera para ipamigay sa mga asawat anak pati na ren sa mga kabit para pang shopping hahahahaha.

Seriously one of the factor is the hanging uncertainty over the fiscal cliff situation in the US. But still there is still the possibility of a santa claus rally and year end window dressing, kaya sa mga di pa nakapag benta, may pag asa pa.

[Bosnyboy]

My Christmas wish is for prices to correct deeply para mura, so we can all buy at a lower price. I still foresee strong pse growth next year. Prices currently is soooo expensive already

[nayki]

Originally Posted by Bosnyboy

Stock prices are retreating, run is almost over i guess. Sa aking palagay lang kaya nagbentahan na lahat kasi malapit na pasko kailangan na ng pera para ipamigay sa mga asawat anak pati na ren sa mga kabit para pang shopping hahahahaha.

Seriously one of the factor is the hanging uncertainty over the fiscal cliff situation in the US. But still there is still the possibility of a santa claus rally and year end window dressing, kaya sa mga di pa nakapag benta, may pag asa pa.

Iyong kabet lakas magparetreat ng stocks

[anakngpasig]

perfect day for bargain-hunting today

[thescene]

I think we might get a slight uptick before year ends as companies try to buy stocks to shore up their balance sheets.

[3cr]

Looks like next year na ang 6,000 mark if ever...

PSEi slides a third session, ends week just above 5,700 mark
InterAksyon.com
http://www.interaksyon.com/business/...bove-5700-mark

MANILA - Philippine share prices on Friday stretched their losses to a third straight session to close just above the 5,700 level, tracking the weakness in regional markets because of investor concern over the US' fiscal woes.

At the Philippine Stock Exchange, the composite index dropped 80.84 points or 1.4 percent to end the week at 5,707.11.

All sub-indices finished in negative territory with the property index losing 1.61 percent. The holding firms, services and financials sectors all shed at least 1.12 percent each.

Decliners beat advancers, 106 to 71, while 34 issues were unchanged. A total of 2.35 billion stocks worth P12.77 billion changed hands.

Actively traded shares were San Miguel's Series 2 preferred shares, Metrobank, Ayala Land, Ayala Corp and PLDT.

Top gainers were Touch Solutions, iRipple and Bogo Medellin, while the biggest losers were Concrete Aggregates, Yehey and Vivant.

"It's another healthy correction for the market with investors taking profits after the recent rally," said Astro del Castillo, managing director at First Grade Finance Inc.

Before the three-day losing streak, the PSEi registered a fresh high of 5,831.50, the 37th time it has broken records this year to make it Asia’s fastest growing equity market.

Aside from the market’s overbought condition, fears of a US fiscal cliff may have triggered the sell-off, del Castillo said.

Overnight the, the Dow Jones industrial average slid 92.50 points, or 0.70 percent, to 13,152.95 over the lack of progress to avoid a fiscal cliff - referring to $600 billion of tax increases and spending cuts set to kick in by next year - that threatens to derail the recovery of the fragile US economy.

[anakngpasig]

it went down a lot today and closed at just a little over 5,600, exciting times

[leofriends]

haha.. anyare?

[calaguyo]

Stocks are on sale today!

[anakngpasig]

the market's already overbought. it needs to go down.