Projection: Metropolitan areas in 2050

[brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Chrissib

I made a projection that projects the size of all metropolitan areas that are larger than 1 million now and will be larger than 2 million in 2050.

For France you have forgotten to include Toulouse and Marseille, both of which will easily have more than 2 million inhabitants by 2050.

[Denjiro]

Hanoi (the whole special-class municipality) has actually more than six million people. On your map it is mentioned that Hanoi's metropolitan area (at the moment) only houses between 2 and 5 million people, that's wrong. Could you change that, please?

[brisavoine]

This should be the population of the Toulouse metropolitan area (within its current borders... the borders in 2050 may actually be further away from downtown Toulouse and include cities such as Montauban or Gaillac):
- optimistic scenario (+1.8% growth per year): 2,530,000 inh.
- median scenario (+1.5% growth per year, which has been the base growth of Toulouse for several decades now): 2,240,000 inh.
- pessimistic scenario (+1.2% growth per year): 1,985,000 inh.

For Marseille, future growth is harder to predict, because Marseille's growth has been more erratic than Toulouse's over time, but given that the Marseille metropolitan area had 1,714,828 inh. in 2009 in its current borders, it's quite likely that Marseille will be above 2 million by 2050. It may even have merged with the Toulon metropolitan area by then (the Toulon metro area had 607,681 inh. in 2009). The center of Marseille is located 49 km from the center of Toulon as the crow flies. The urban areas are almost touching each other, and it's only a matter of time before INSEE declares that Marseille and Toulon have merged into a single urban area (just like what happened with Avignon and the neighboring urban areas in 2010).

[èđđeůx]

Top 10 African cities on the list:

1. (6) Lagos, Nigeria - 46.182 million
2. (10) Kinshasa DRC - 37.151 million
3. (13) Cairo, Egypt - 33.180 million
4. (24) Nairobi, Kenya - 21.576 million
5. (25) Dar es Salaam, Tanania - 20.657 million
6. (33) Khartoum, Sudan - 16.068 million
7. (37) Joburg, SA - 15.510 million
8. (40) Kampala, Uganda - 14.949 million
9. (44) Abidjan, Ivory Coast - 13.818 million
10. (47) Kano, Nigeria - 13.604 million

Huge boom.

[èđđeůx]

Originally Posted by Chrissib

As promised, here the list of the 70 megacities in 2050 (not 69 as I previously counted, sorry about that):

]

Your Seoul estimate is interesting. The city is already declining in population itself but the metro is is still growing. I expect the metro to start its decline or at least see zero/minuscule
growth sometime around 2030. I could easily be wrong though.

[Chrissib]

Originally Posted by brisavoine

For France you have forgotten to include Toulouse and Marseille, both of which will easily have more than 2 million inhabitants by 2050.

As I wrote on my first post in this thread, I assumed that all metropolitan areas within a country will grow at the same pace, to make the calculation more easily. The French urban population is to increase by 26% until 2050 and neither Marseille (1,558,000 inh. according to citypopulation) nor Toulouse will be over 2 million by then with that growth rate.

Edit: Added Marseille as the 1,558,000 figure was aged.

[Chrissib]

Originally Posted by Denjiro

Hanoi (the whole special-class municipality) has actually more than six million people. On your map it is mentioned that Hanoi's metropolitan area (at the moment) only houses between 2 and 5 million people, that's wrong. Could you change that, please?

The municipality of Hanoi has a very large area so that not every part of it can be considered as a part of the metro area of Hanoi.

[geococcyx]

Originally Posted by Chrissib

As promised, here the list of the 70 megacities in 2050 (not 69 as I previously counted, sorry about that):

Bad. México City should be stabilising and not growing! It is already a nightmare now with less people...

¿I am wondering if you included the cities of Toluca or Puebla in calculating the metro area population for México City?

[sebvill]

Originally Posted by èđđeůx

Top 10 African cities on the list:

1. (6) Lagos, Nigeria - 46.182 million
2. (10) Kinshasa DRC - 37.151 million
3. (13) Cairo, Egypt - 33.180 million
4. (24) Nairobi, Kenya - 21.576 million
5. (25) Dar es Salaam, Tanania - 20.657 million
6. (33) Khartoum, Sudan - 16.068 million
7. (37) Joburg, SA - 15.510 million
8. (40) Kampala, Uganda - 14.949 million
9. (44) Abidjan, Ivory Coast - 13.818 million
10. (47) Kano, Nigeria - 13.604 million

Huge boom.

For sure...you are gonna leave Latin American cities way behind in size.

1. (6) Lagos, Nigeria - 46.182 million
2. (10) Kinshasa DRC - 37.151 million
3. (13) Cairo, Egypt - 33.180 million
Mexico City - 32.760 millions
Sao Paulo - 26.199 millions
4. (24) Nairobi, Kenya - 21.576 million
5. (25) Dar es Salaam, Tanania - 20.657 million
Buenos Aires - 18.576 millions
6. (33) Khartoum, Sudan - 16.068 million
Rio de Janeiro - 15.774 millions
7. (37) Joburg, SA - 15.510 million
8. (40) Kampala, Uganda - 14.949 million
Lima - 14.155 millions
9. (44) Abidjan, Ivory Coast - 13.818 million
Bogota - 13.650 millions
10. (47) Kano, Nigeria - 13.604 million

[Chrissib]

Originally Posted by geococcyx

Bad. México City should be stabilising and not growing! It is already a nightmare now with less people...

¿I am wondering if you included the cities of Toluca or Puebla in calculating the metro area population for México City?

No, neither Toluca nor Puebla is included. But there remains the possibility that Toluca merges with the metro area of Mexico city. Puebla will never merge, it simply is too far away and the mountain range dividing them is too big.

[aaabbbccc]

Casablanca , Morocco will grow but will not reach 10 million not even close , it is estimated that the metro area will reach somewhere between 6 and 7 million , today it has a population of 4 1/2 million
if you count the Rabat metro region , The Casa / Rabat metroplex in 2050 should be right around 10 million people by 2050 , these 2 metro region will merge by that time

[xrtn2]

Brazilian cities will disappear ........

Growth so slow.

;(

[isaidso]

2 mega cities is hardly tantamount to disappearing. Canada has none according to that list. We will likely have one by 2030 though: 10-13 million depending on the definition of metropolitan area.

[èđđeůx]

Originally Posted by isaidso

2 mega cities is hardly tantamount to disappearing. Canada has none according to that list. We will likely have one by 2030 though: 10-13 million depending on the definition of metropolitan area.

The greater Toronto area?

[èđđeůx]

Originally Posted by sebvill

For sure...you are gonna leave Latin American cities way behind in size.

1. (6) Lagos, Nigeria - 46.182 million
2. (10) Kinshasa DRC - 37.151 million
3. (13) Cairo, Egypt - 33.180 million
Mexico City - 32.760 millions
Sao Paulo - 26.199 millions
4. (24) Nairobi, Kenya - 21.576 million
5. (25) Dar es Salaam, Tanania - 20.657 million
Buenos Aires - 18.576 millions
6. (33) Khartoum, Sudan - 16.068 million
Rio de Janeiro - 15.774 millions
7. (37) Joburg, SA - 15.510 million
8. (40) Kampala, Uganda - 14.949 million
Lima - 14.155 millions
9. (44) Abidjan, Ivory Coast - 13.818 million
Bogota - 13.650 millions
10. (47) Kano, Nigeria - 13.604 million

The growth will be insane in African urban areas over the next 38 years and even after that. The total urban population will triple to 1.2 billion. Hundreds of thousands of new housing units will be needed yearly alongside strict urban planning, unlike today, or else we'll see many more slumscapes pop up. Though many cities are investing heavily in public transportation, infrastructure, tearing down illegal structures and so on like Lagos, Nairobi, Addis, Dar es Salaam, and Kampala. So the initiative is slowly being taken.

[geococcyx]

Originally Posted by Chrissib

No, neither Toluca nor Puebla is included. But there remains the possibility that Toluca merges with the metro area of Mexico city. Puebla will never merge, it simply is too far away and the mountain range dividing them is too big.

Yes, there is a strong posibility of Toluca/Mex City merging. The reason why I asked is becos I've seen some maps where they include Toluca and Puebla as "greater" Mexico City which I find ridiculous.

[brisavoine]

Originally Posted by geococcyx

Yes, there is a strong posibility of Toluca/Mex City merging.

Only if you can bulldoze some 4,500 m high mountains.

Some people!

[softee]

Toronto will certainly be a megacity by 2050, likely much sooner than that.

[sebvill]

Originally Posted by èđđeůx

The growth will be insane in African urban areas over the next 38 years and even after that. The total urban population will triple to 1.2 billion. Hundreds of thousands of new housing units will be needed yearly alongside strict urban planning, unlike today, or else we'll see many more slumscapes pop up. Though many cities are investing heavily in public transportation, infrastructure, tearing down illegal structures and so on like Lagos, Nairobi, Addis, Dar es Salaam, and Kampala. So the initiative is slowly being taken.

I hope you dont make the same mistakes Latin America did in the 70s and 80s. Weve payed hard our lack of urban planning.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by èđđeůx

The greater Toronto area?

Yes. The Toronto area was already at 6.574 million (GTA + Hamilton) to 8.759 million (GGH) in 2011 depending on how you count it.


Courtesy of vid