Projection: Metropolitan areas in 2050

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

No, what I'm saying is metropolitan definitions change as time goes by. And São Paulo de facto metropolitan area (12,000 km²) is already on 22.6 million people. Maybe more, in a broader definition.

By 2050, the macrometropolitan area might be very well regarded as a metropolitan area.

I see. Btw, the Pearl River Delta isn't a metropolitan area either.

[bayviews]

Originally Posted by geococcyx

Bad. México City should be stabilising and not growing! It is already a nightmare now with less people...

¿I am wondering if you included the cities of Toluca or Puebla in calculating the metro area population for México City?

Well, just imagine what a delight Karachi will be with 54 million in 2050.

[lowenmeister]

It makes me wonder which metro will(if ever) hit 100 million mark,maybe Lagos or some dhaka-Kolkata megalopolis.

[Chrissib]

Originally Posted by lowenmeister

It makes me wonder which metro will(if ever) hit 100 million mark,maybe Lagos or some dhaka-Kolkata megalopolis.

Delhi could also be a possibility. I bet my projection underestimates Delhis growth. Delhi is a cpital city so it could grow faster than the average of all Indian cities. At least that is what it's doing now.


From the people added annual between 2045-2050 you can also derive which metro areas will have a potential to reach 100 million people. Lagos will add 1.22 million people annually in the last 5 years before 2050, Kinshasa 951,000 and Karachi 883,000 people, to name the three most growing metropolitan areas.

[isaidso]

That's just crazy annual growth.

[èđđeůx]

Originally Posted by Chrissib

For LA I used the 17-18 million figure. The LA metro area is clearly larger than just LA and Orange county.

Of course. I stupidly excluded Riverside, Ventura and San Bernardino counties.

[èđđeůx]

Originally Posted by lowenmeister

It makes me wonder which metro will(if ever) hit 100 million mark,maybe Lagos or some dhaka-Kolkata megalopolis.

I thought it would be the someday formed Pearl River Delta megapolis. I couldn't imagine Lagos hitting 100 million. The state would have to extend its metro area into neighboring Ogun state. Lagos state is only over 3,500 square km and according to some stats has over 18 million people already.

[èđđeůx]

Did some pondering around on Lagos from the state government's site: http://www.lagosstate.gov.ng/pagelinks.php?p=6

Official population: 17,552,942 million of which over 85% (14.92 million) live in Metropolitan Lagos.

The rate of population growth is about 600,000 per annum with a population density of about 4,193 persons per sq. km. In the built-up areas of Metropolitan Lagos, the average density is over 20,000 persons per square km.

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Assuming Chrissib's population projections do occur, by 2050 metropolitan Lagos should swallow up all of Lagos state. Total density then would be 12,910 people per square km in the entire state (excluding just the current area that makes up Lagos's metro).

[mintgum84]

I live in a nice town of 150,000 people. Visiting London with its 8 million people is crazy and often unpleasant. I cant imagine cities of 50m people!

[pesto]

Originally Posted by èđđeůx

thats going by metropolitan area. It's already at 12.9 million, so 22-26 million isn't very far-fetched.

Looks like same maps and same charts from some time ago.

The LA area is already at 26M (LA, 10; Ventura, 1; the OC, 3.5; the IE, 5.5; SD, 3; greater Tijuana, 3 (probably more but statistics are weak)). This is one continuous populated area except where mountains or laws make buidling illegal.

Given the growth rates in N. Mexico and the capacity for greater density in LA, I would expect 40-45M to be a reaonable guess for 2050. But guesses that far out are mostly for fun.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by mintgum84

I live in a nice town of 150,000 people. Visiting London with its 8 million people is crazy and often unpleasant. I cant imagine cities of 50m people!

50 million doesn't mean it's necessarily denser. What type of density and size one is comfortable with depends a lot on what one is used to. Mexico City (20 million) is twice as big as London (9 million), but I didn't find it any crazier than smaller London, or even smaller Toronto (6 million).

Density is the biggest factor. Some place like Mumbai would feel crazier than all 3.

[Draeken]

I would say that the Gauteng metropolitan area in South Africa should exceed 20 million by 2050. It is usual to just consider Johannesburg, especially in foreign sources less familiar with the region, but a more accurate statistical consideration is the Pretoria-Witwatersrand-Vereeninging conglomeration of towns/cities

Growth projections put the 2050 population at between 21 and 28 million.

http://policydialogue.org/files/even...per_Landau.pdf

Considering this is from a 2008 study and that in 2011 the population census put the population at 12.5 million, which is in excess of the high growth estimate, the 2050 population might be more than 30 million.


Although not all of it's urban centres are fully contiguous yet, by 2050 they most certainly will be.

[Yuri S Andrade]

I think these figures are highly unlikely. PWV, as today, counts 12 million people. To reach the 30 million mark as early as 2050, it should grow at an insane rate.

[Draeken]

Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade

I think these figures are highly unlikely. PWV, as today, counts 12 million people. To reach the 30 million mark as early as 2050, it should grow at an insane rate.

I agree 30 million is more unlikely than likely, but from 2000 to 2012 the population increased from 8.7 million to 12.5 million. It will definitely be in excess of 20million, and in my opinion very close to 30 million.

[zaphod]

Do you guys think these future megacities in Africa and Southwest Asia will be to able catalyze all that population and end up with a cityscape and infrastructure like New York or Tokyo?

Or will they disperse as soon as those countries have better economies, lower birth rates, etc, and people don't have to live in filthy slums anymore?

[NicSA]

They will densify like New York and Tokyo. Slums come up in the first place because cities have better economic opportunities (and always will). As Africa and SE Asia get richer, these slums will be replaced with residential neighbourhoods but there is no historical precedent for people leaving cities en masse as they become wealthier.

[lowenmeister]

Suburbs will probably grow massively in African and South Asian cities. But those suburbs would probably be composed mostly of highrise housing like in China and South Korea. Or maybe the people will live mostly in massive apartment complexes(think sky city). Who knows,2050 is quite far into the future.

[null]

East Asian Urban Centers

[Kolony]

I think Beijing and Tianjin will definetely merge!!!

And the Moscow figure is too low!!!! It already is nearing 16 million people. It should be a minimum of 17-18 million, not 15-16!!!

[mintgum84]

Crazy times ahead.