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Old January 8th, 2013, 10:59 PM   #1
Amastroi2017
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Cities to potentially have 10+ completed supertalls by 2020?

I was wondering how many cities in the world have a legitimate shot at having 10 or more completed buildings 1,000+ feet in roof height by 2020.

I know 984 feet is technically a supertall but 1,000 feet to roof height is a much better feat in my opinion, a more substantial milestone.

Only one city currently has 10 or more which is Dubai.

I believe only six cities have a legitimate shot at 10 or more by 2020.
Those are:
Dubai
New York
Mumbai
Shenzhen
Tianjin
Guangzhou

Cities that will most likely be close include Shanghai, Hong Kong, Moscow, Dalian and maybe Chicago.

Look forward to hearing people's view on this topic.
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Old January 9th, 2013, 01:19 AM   #2
KillerZavatar
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current list of cities with 300m buildings topped out by ZZ-II:
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/22508016/Su...ber%202012.pdf

Now looking at CTBUH's database and analysing

So Dubai is already there.

New York has more than 5 buildings over 300m planned, so it is pretty likely unless another crisis hits the world. I think New York may get there in 2016 or 2017

So many projects for mumbai are uncertain, on hold, yet so many of them are twin or triple residential towers. Mumbai will get there for sure though. In 2015 it may get to 8 and i am pretty sure the boom won't stop there.

Shenzhen might get there in 2016 already, currently it looks like it will have 9 by then, but looking at china proposing a tower and then just pushing it up i am sure there will be at least one more tower that is only a bit over 300m which will be finished by then also. If not then 2017. By 2020 no question though.

Tianjin only has 1 building completed above 300m, but will have 8 by 2016 and from then on it will most likely compete with Mumbai what Hong Kong and New York used to compete about. By 2020 it will be there for sure.

Guangzhou has a whole new CBD planned and several more areas with 400m monsters, It will break the 10 by 2017 maybe and from then skyrocket upwards.

-----------

Shanghai is really hard to say. There is not much planned as of now, but we all know that there is just too much potential in far too many areas in the city. I think it may get there, but rather close. Maybe in 2019 or 2020. If Shanghai continues to pull massive projects instead of more smaller ones then it may not.

Hong Kong really has not enough space. I think we will see one more big project coming (400m+) and a lot more in the 200-300m range, but i don't think it will make it until 2020, although i really do hope so.

A lot of projects struggle in moscow right now already. I really can't see it coming, but it would be a happy surprise. Moscow always had very ambitious plans and visions.

Dalian is one of the new comers, but i do not think 2020 is enough time.

Chicago may get a come back. Now that i see Toronto and New York booming i really see it possible, after all it 'only' needs 4 more supertalls.

-----------

Chongqing has supposed to have a big boom, but disappointed in the outcome, yet we shouldn't scratch it completely from our boards, it defenetely has the potential, even by 2020

Nanjing will get close for sure and won't surprise me if it gets 10 even by 2018 by all these projects popping up.

Seoul still has this Mega-CBD to come. If all of it gets build it would make it and we still have time for that

-----------

Wuhan has quite ambitious plans, don't think it will be there in 2020, but it is worth keeping an eye for it.

Shenyang might have potential, but only the next years will show.

Kuala Lumpur will not make it i believe, but i still wanted to mention it, because i think it may get close with maybe 8 or something in 2020. but hard to say.

-----------

There are a lot of cities that i think will get interesting in the next years, especially Busan, Jakarta and Manila, but they will get nowhere close to 10 by 2020, yet they might be a surprise in the following decade keeping up with how Mumbai does now.

-----------

And yes i am quite a positive thinker in the moment, wrote this in a good mood After all 7 years is a long time and we see the supertall proposals popping out so often. Especially in chinese cities after a proposal and it coming of the ground it can be finished rather quickly, if it is a building of 270m with a 30m spire it is already considered a supertall. A tower like that could be unknown to us and not really proposed until like 2017 and still has a chance to bring a city up another supertall closer to the mark, so i think there are a lot of surprises we may not see coming now.

Yet if i had to put money on a choice, i would probably only put up the cities you said already.
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Old January 9th, 2013, 05:47 AM   #3
deekshith
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As of today 12 supertalls are under construction + site prep in Mumbai and are going on smoothly without any hurdles.

World one 442m x 1
Oasis 372m x 1
DB crown 337m x 2 (out of 3 one is downgraded to 65 fls)
Palais royale 320m x 1
Omkar worli 300m+ x 2
Minerva 304m x 1
Namaste tower 301m x 1
Century IT park 300m x 1
Island city center 300m+ x 2

On hold projects which can be get completed by 2020.
India tower 720m x 1
DB turf view 300m+ x 2
DB heights 328m x 2

Proposed and approved supertalls.
Third tower of
World towers complex 350m+ x 1
Four seasons II 355m x 1
Shreepati gardens 400m+ x 2
Shreepati heights 301m x 1
Indra tower 300m x 1
Island city center 300m x 5

I would say Mumbai will get around 15 supertalls by 2020 for sure.
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Old January 9th, 2013, 09:03 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KillerZavatar View Post
A lot of projects struggle in moscow right now already. I really can't see it coming, but it would be a happy surprise. Moscow always had very ambitious plans and visions.
The only supertall project under construction in Moscow really "struggle" is Federation Tower East. That's really sad, because it supposed to be tallest, and I'm afraid it will be on hold probably until late 2013 or even later date... But still I believe it will be completed in next few years.

All others supertalls UC feel fine: Mercury t/o, Eurasia t/о, Oko growing fast, so I don't expect any troubles with these ones.

But these give us only 5 supertalls (including Capital City Moscow, 302 m, 990 ft) and there are no other real plans for new supertalls. Russia tower canceled and no hope for it in near future...

The main problem is position of new mayor Sobyanin, who is strictly against any new supertalls construction
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Old January 9th, 2013, 05:44 PM   #5
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Brazil will have 0 supertalls. But finally some skyscrapers between 200 and 260 meters... so sad
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Old January 9th, 2013, 05:59 PM   #6
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I would say watch out for Delhi(NCR) guys.The height restriction has been revoked.According to sources as many as 28 skyscrapers including numerous supertalls are at the initial stage of planning or been proposed.Keeping in mind that the megacity is struggling for free space now,vertical movement is inevitable in near future.
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Old January 14th, 2013, 09:05 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KillerZavatar View Post
Chicago may get a come back. Now that i see Toronto and New York booming i really see it possible, after all it 'only' needs 4 more supertalls.
New York will get there, but Toronto will likely need more time. Toronto has no super tall buildings and is an excruciatingly pragmatic city. Building heights in Toronto reflect the economics of the market.

That said, heights have jumped considerably over the last 6 years. In 2006, the tallest buildings going up were typically just over 100m tall. By 2008, developers had pushed heights to about 150-200m. In 2010, Toronto started seeing 200-260m proposals. Today, we're seeing the first super tall proposals with 2 possibly 4* such proposals in just a few weeks.

Toronto seems to have reached that tipping point where 300m+ buildings become compelling from an economic point of view. 7 years to go from zero to 10 super talls? Sounds like a tall order. Then again, the Toronto construction boom continues to surprise the biggest skeptics.


* Oxford East (326m), Oxford West (326m), 98 floor proposal for Yonge, 92 floor proposal for Yonge.
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Old January 14th, 2013, 09:48 AM   #8
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Will have 10+ completed super talls by 2020:

New York
Dubai
Tianjin
Guangzhou
Shenzhen
Seoul
Mumbai


Outside chance of having 10+ completed super talls by 2020:

Hong Kong
Shanghai
Nanjing
Busan
Chicago
Toronto
Kuala Lumpur
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Last edited by isaidso; January 14th, 2013 at 09:56 AM.
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Old January 14th, 2013, 11:13 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amastroi2017 View Post
I believe only six cities have a legitimate shot at 10 or more by 2020.
Those are:
Dubai
New York
Mumbai
Shenzhen
Tianjin
Guangzhou

Cities that will most likely be close include Shanghai, Hong Kong, Moscow, Dalian and maybe Chicago.

Look forward to hearing people's view on this topic.
supertall skyscr and tele towers or only skyscrapers?
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Old January 14th, 2013, 12:18 PM   #10
KillerZavatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
New York will get there, but Toronto will likely need more time.
you misunderstood me. i said Toronto is booming, not it will make it into this list
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Old January 14th, 2013, 03:25 PM   #11
hunser
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New York will definitely be there.
10 completed supertalls is the worst case scenario, and 20 the most optimistic one. So I guess we'll se about 15 supertalls finished by 2020. Of course there will be proposals in the coming years but those won't make it this decade.

Here's the list (taken from my SSP thread):

1. One World Trade Center, 1787ft (544,7m), Under Construction (steel topped out)
2. Nordstrom Tower, 1550ft+ (472,4m+), Site Preparation (likely to exceed 1600ft)
3. 432 Park Avenue, 1398ft (426,1m), Under Construction (height not final; probably 1420ft (432
4. Two World Trade Center, 1349ft (411,2m), Under Construction (currently on hold)
5. Hudson Yards North Tower, 1337ft (407,5m), Approved
6. Empire State Building, 1250ft (381m), Completed [1,454ft (443,2m) when counting the spire]
7. 15 Penn PLaza, 1216ft (370,6m), Approved
8. One Manhattan West, 1216ft (370,6m), Site Preparation
9. Bank of America Tower, 1200ft (365,8m), Completed
10. Three World Trade Center, 1155ft (352m), Under Construction
11. Conde Nast Building, 1118ft (340,7m), Completed [when counting the spire]
12. The Girasole, 1060ft (323,1m), Site Preparation (likely to exceed 1400ft)
13. Tower Verre, 1050ft (320m), Site Preparation
14. Chrysler Building, 1046ft (318,8m), Completed
15. New York Times Tower, 1046ft (318,8m), Completed
16. One57, 1005ft (306,3m), Topped Out
17. Equinox Tower, 1000ft+ (304,8m+), Proposed
18. One Hudson Yards, 1000ft+ (304,8m+), Site Preparation
19. Sherwood Tower (34th & 10th), 1000ft+ (304,8m+), Proposed
20. 34th & 8th, 1000ft+ (304,8m+), Proposed
21. 138 East 50th Sreet, 1000ft+ (304,8m+), Proposed
22. Grand Central Tower, 1000ft+ (304,8m+), Proposed (likely to exceed 1700ft)

■ Completed
■ Under Construction
■ On Hold
■ In Preparation
■ Approved

Last edited by hunser; January 14th, 2013 at 03:32 PM.
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Old January 14th, 2013, 05:13 PM   #12
Kiboko
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The new future is in India. Mumbai is already on its way, but also Kolkata will start very soon.
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Old January 14th, 2013, 05:14 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kristian_KG View Post
supertall skyscr and tele towers or only skyscrapers?
For actual supertalls, not communications towers.
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Old January 14th, 2013, 05:33 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
Will have 10+ completed super talls by 2020:

New York
Dubai
Tianjin
Guangzhou
Shenzhen
Seoul
Mumbai


Outside chance of having 10+ completed super talls by 2020:

Hong Kong
Shanghai
Nanjing
Busan
Chicago
Toronto
Kuala Lumpur
I hope you're correct about Seoul, but I see it only as an outside chance. There's only one completed supertall in Incheon, one U/C and no others approved yet.
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Old January 15th, 2013, 12:01 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by n20 View Post
I hope you're correct about Seoul, but I see it only as an outside chance. There's only one completed supertall in Incheon, one U/C and no others approved yet.
there is a whole CBD coming in Seoul. the status is still unclear, but if they can fight to get it up Seoul would reach 10 supertalls finished when the buildings are finished. But i agree the chances are rather small.
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Old January 15th, 2013, 01:06 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KillerZavatar View Post
you misunderstood me. i said Toronto is booming, not it will make it into this list
No, I understood you the first time. I was just adding my 2cents.
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Old January 20th, 2013, 11:56 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amastroi2017 View Post
I was wondering how many cities in the world have a legitimate shot at having 10 or more completed buildings 1,000+ feet in roof height by 2020.

I know 984 feet is technically a supertall but 1,000 feet to roof height is a much better feat in my opinion, a more substantial milestone.

Only one city currently has 10 or more which is Dubai.

I believe only six cities have a legitimate shot at 10 or more by 2020.
Those are:
Dubai
New York
Mumbai
Shenzhen
Tianjin
Guangzhou

Cities that will most likely be close include Shanghai, Hong Kong, Moscow, Dalian and maybe Chicago.

Look forward to hearing people's view on this topic.
Good thread.

As for your list the number of towers finished by now. So you have an idea of what has to come. + under construction.

Dubai: 16 com/ 6 U/C (2 T/O)
New York: 4 com/ 4 U/C (2 T/O)
Mumbai: 0 com/ 10 U/C (0 T/O)
Shenzhen: 3 com/ 5 U/C (0 T/O)
Tianjin: 1 com/ 3 U/C (0 T/O)
Guangzhou: 5 com/ 3 U/C (0 T/O)
Shanghai: 3 com/ 2 U/C (0 T/O)
Hong Kong: 6 com/ 0 U/C (-)
Moscow: 1 com/ 3 U/C (2 T/O)
Dalian: 0 com/ 1 U/C ( 0 T/O)
Chicago: 6 com/ 0 U/C (-)

And many, many, many proposals.
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Old January 21st, 2013, 12:47 AM   #18
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I count 7 supertalls U/C (1 T/O) in Shenzhen:

Ping'an IFC, East Pacific Center (T/O), Gemdale Gangxia Tower, Hon Kwok City Center, Kingkey Xiasha Project, Heung Kong Tower, Shenzhen World Finance Center

So Shenzhen will definetely have more than 10 supertalls by 2020.
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Old January 21st, 2013, 05:34 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tim1807 View Post
Good thread.

As for your list the number of towers finished by now. So you have an idea of what has to come. + under construction.

Dubai: 16 com/ 6 U/C (2 T/O)
New York: 4 com/ 4 U/C (2 T/O)
Mumbai: 0 com/ 10 U/C (0 T/O)
Shenzhen: 3 com/ 5 U/C (0 T/O)
Tianjin: 1 com/ 3 U/C (0 T/O)
Guangzhou: 5 com/ 3 U/C (0 T/O)
Shanghai: 3 com/ 2 U/C (0 T/O)
Hong Kong: 6 com/ 0 U/C (-)
Moscow: 1 com/ 3 U/C (2 T/O)
Dalian: 0 com/ 1 U/C ( 0 T/O)
Chicago: 6 com/ 0 U/C (-)

And many, many, many proposals.
There are 12 supertall buildings presently U/C in Mumbai and not 10.
Please refer to Deekshith's list above.
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Old January 21st, 2013, 08:09 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tim1807 View Post

Good thread.

As for your list the number of towers finished by now. So you have an idea of what has to come. + under construction.

Dubai: 16 com/ 6 U/C (2 T/O)
New York: 4 com/ 4 U/C (2 T/O)
Mumbai: 0 com/ 10 U/C (0 T/O)
Shenzhen: 3 com/ 5 U/C (0 T/O)
Tianjin: 1 com/ 3 U/C (0 T/O)
Guangzhou: 5 com/ 3 U/C (0 T/O)
Shanghai: 3 com/ 2 U/C (0 T/O)
Hong Kong: 6 com/ 0 U/C (-)
Moscow: 1 com/ 3 U/C (2 T/O)
Dalian: 0 com/ 1 U/C ( 0 T/O)
Chicago: 6 com/ 0 U/C (-)

And many, many, many proposals.
Which 4 do you have UC in New York. I only see 432 park and 3 WTC.
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