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Old October 5th, 2016, 09:11 AM   #641
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Besides, isn't it a telling sign that the US has only very little HSR to this day? Would they miss the oportunity to make business, if it were a real business?
Lol. No , just shows the power of the car and plane industries in the US and their political donations and lobbying to their politicians such as oh..George Dubya
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Old October 6th, 2016, 03:35 PM   #642
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Just repeating what I always said: HSR is, in most cases, more about image than about economic substance. In Germany HSR is, over longer distances, rarely significantly faster than medium-speed conventional trains (you may save 5 to 20 minutes). I travel every week a 500 km route via HSR and checking the timetables there is almost no difference in travel times compared to non-HSR trains (which are already quite fast). The infrastructure and train costs are much higher though. The economic benefits are mostly on the side of the companies which provide the HSR technology, which in the case of Germany are native companies, so there is at least this benefit (same for China, France and Japan). In the case of Thailand I don't know if there is any significant benefit at all. Medium-speed would have been the economically sensible way to go, considering the cost-benefit structure.

Besides, isn't it a telling sign that the US has only very little HSR to this day? Would they miss the oportunity to make business, if it were a real business?
No, your argument is that high-speed rail is a vanity project which provides zero economic benefit and spurs zero economic development. You did not consider nor acknowledge that there are cases of HSR MANAGING to spur development and/or create economic benefit such as Germany, China and Japan AND failing to spur development and/or create benefits such as Spain. There are some, like Turkey, Korea, Uzbekistan which hover in between (but their failings are more due to the nations half-assing their HSR infrastructure).

I do think that it's unreasonable to dismiss Thailand as a whole, because there IS and WILL BE demand for high-speed rail on some of the city pairs, such as Bangkok-Chiang Mai and Bangkok-Pattaya. The latter would be successful if it opened today due to the sheer volume not only from tourists, but as Bangkok conurbation and increases in density as it grows southeastwards towards its port. Bangkok-Khon Kaen is more suspect, but China is no fool which is why they proposed that instead of an all-passenger trunk line/passenger dedicated line/shinkansen (same meaning), that the route be supplemented by a fork to Laem Chabang so that freight can be carried. However, as of now, the Bangkok-Khon Kaen route is just a Bangkok-Korat high-speed line, and without an extension into China, it will remain a vanity project.

The US is really not a benchmark for high-speed rail. For its size, it's not densely populated and much of the land is flat, making airports and roads a cheaper option. Even the EU is more dense than the States. Bear in mind that the US and China is about the same size, and if China had the same proportion of usable land and the US' population, they would not be rushing the HSR the way they're doing now.
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Old October 14th, 2016, 05:33 AM   #643
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Chinese keeps postponing Thai - China railway with a price tag of 179,412.21 Million Baht by delaying the issue of comparing table and insistence of 3% annual interests which Thai government cannot accept - compelling Thai government to look for domestic sources - More government saving bonds
http://www.manager.co.th/iBizChannel...=9590000103402
http://www.thansettakij.com/2016/10/14/105382
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Last edited by Wisarut; October 14th, 2016 at 02:28 PM. Reason: Addendum
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Old October 15th, 2016, 10:26 AM   #644
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Chinese keeps postponing Thai - China railway with a price tag of 179,412.21 Million Baht by delaying the issue of comparing table and insistence of 3% annual interests which Thai government cannot accept - compelling Thai government to look for domestic sources - More government saving bonds
Incidentally - condolences. Your King is of course in mourning now, but has he expressed any opinion of the Chinese offer back when he was Crown Prince?
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Old October 15th, 2016, 10:29 AM   #645
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Incidentally - condolences. Your King is of course in mourning now, but has he expressed any opinion of the Chinese offer back when he was Crown Prince?
Crown Prince who acts as a king before coronation to prevent long interregnum would have no opinion in this issue.
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Old October 15th, 2016, 01:34 PM   #646
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Incidentally - condolences. Your King is of course in mourning now, but has he expressed any opinion of the Chinese offer back when he was Crown Prince?
I believe under the Thai constitutional monarchy, the royal family tries not to have an opinion on political affairs.
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Old October 15th, 2016, 03:13 PM   #647
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Same as in UK - usually not supposed to have a public opinion. Privately no doubt in both places they have an opinion about all kinds of things just like us here.
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Old October 17th, 2016, 09:10 AM   #648
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Lol. No , just shows the power of the car and plane industries in the US and their political donations and lobbying to their politicians such as oh..George Dubya
Oh come on. Accusing some lobby of doing this or that is a worn out and intellectually void default argument used when one doesn't have any clear thing to say about some issue. It's a poor man's argument for lazy nonthinkers, like any conspiracy "argument".
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Old October 17th, 2016, 09:51 AM   #649
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I do think that it's unreasonable to dismiss Thailand as a whole, because there IS and WILL BE demand for high-speed rail on some of the city pairs, such as Bangkok-Chiang Mai and Bangkok-Pattaya. The latter would be successful if it opened today due to the sheer volume not only from tourists, but as Bangkok conurbation and increases in density as it grows southeastwards towards its port.
Bangkok-Pattaya is the only obvious route that comes in mind (I already said that before), even more so as there would be track sharing with the Airport Link.
Thailand may be densely populated (on average), but lacks concentration outside the central region, urbanization is very low, especially in the Northeast. This is a big difference to China and Japan.
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Old October 19th, 2016, 07:32 AM   #650
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Given the importance of primate cities to their countries, and the population and housing expense pressures which often attend these cities' size, connecting transportation links from them to other areas can help to redirect people to live in those areas. South Korea's idea of basically turning the entire country into a bedroom community of Seoul jumps to mind, but the Tokyo area--with its sprawling commuter rail system and accompanying developments in the region--is a great example, too.

Also, urbanization often comes with economic development. Especially with a military dictatorship in place, the time is ripe for major change in economics and population dynamics.
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Old October 19th, 2016, 08:19 AM   #651
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Bangkok-Pattaya is the only obvious route that comes in mind (I already said that before), even more so as there would be track sharing with the Airport Link.
Thailand may be densely populated (on average), but lacks concentration outside the central region, urbanization is very low, especially in the Northeast. This is a big difference to China and Japan.
the issue is that the High Speed section has to be started at Ladkrabang which is on the Eastern suburb - If Airport Link has become operator, the track sharing scheme to allow High Speed train to head to Bangsue Central will be easy though.
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Old October 21st, 2016, 05:11 PM   #652
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Progress of the Bangkok-Nakhon Ratchasima line.

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The draft contract for the Sino-Thai high-speed railway should be finalised in October, and the first phase of construction is now expected to start in December, says Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith.

"The draft contract has to be completed in October as planned, and tendering will begin in November for private sector participation in construction the first 3.5 kilometres [of the Sino-Thai railway from Bangkok to the Northeast province of Nakhon Ratchasima]," he said at the "One Belt One Road" seminar in Bangkok.

"Construction for the first 3.5km of the Sino-Thai train project will definitely begin in December," said Mr Arkhom.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/tran...t-for-december
Progress of the Bangkok-Hua Hin and Bangkok-Pattaya-Rayong lines.

Quote:
He said progress on the planned high-speed rail routes was quite slow. The government wanted a study of the development of commercial areas before making a decision. The plan is to build the connection between Bangkok and Hua Hin, a distance of 211km and expected cost of 95 billion baht, and the Bangkok-Pattaya-Rayong route, a distance of 193.5km and expected cost of 150 billion baht.

Transport Ministry is now considering the high-speed rail projects and is likely to make a proposal to the State Enterprise Policy Office and the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Committee next month. Committees will then be set up to consider the terms of reference, and bids may be called in early 2016, Mr Chartchai said.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/gene...-go-to-cabinet
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Old October 24th, 2016, 09:10 AM   #653
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After Chinese government refusing to cut the interest rate down on the 53,823 Million Baht loan for signal and EMU system for High Speed train from Bangsue Central to Khorat, Thai government said they are going to look for other sources (domestic loan) as the way ti cut down FOREX risk
http://www.matichon.co.th/news/331077
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Old October 29th, 2016, 10:56 PM   #654
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the reasons behind the delay is due to the fact that Chinese government still insists that the interest per annum for the loan to purchase EMUs as well as the signal and electromechanic system at 20-30% of the project prices at 179,412.21 Million Baht (thus 35,882 Million Baht) will be 2.3% a year for the case of US Dollar denomination or 2.8% a year for the case of Renminbi denomination - which is unacceptable for Ministry of Finance (Thailand) who insists 2% interest per annum to the bitter end-

Hope that the comparing tables will be completed by the end of November 2016 so the project can go further in December 2016
http://manager.co.th/iBizChannel/Vie...=9590000108007
http://www.prachachat.net/news_detai...sid=1477654156
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Old October 30th, 2016, 07:17 PM   #655
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will be 2.3% a year for the case of US Dollar denomination or 2.8% a year for the case of Renminbi denomination - which is unacceptable for Ministry of Finance (Thailand) who insists 2% interest per annum to the bitter end
Is it impossible to get local credit at 2% (I have no idea on Thai interest rates)? They can't foresee future THB/CNY exchange ups and downs, so may end up paying more than the nominal 2% anyway (unless they secure the forex risk at an extra cost).
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Old October 30th, 2016, 07:46 PM   #656
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Is it impossible to get local credit at 2% (I have no idea on Thai interest rates)? They can't foresee future THB/CNY exchange ups and downs, so may end up paying more than the nominal 2% anyway (unless they secure the forex risk at an extra cost).
Expectation from Ministry of Finance (Thailand) is that Chinese loan should be 2% after they got 1.5% from JICA/JBIC loan and there should be no question about that.

BTW, the rate of Thai government Bonds in Baht denomination have swung around 1.875 - 4.000% a year as shown here:

http://www.pdmo.go.th/bond.php?m=bond

Furthermore, the 2% maximum is due to the fear of FOREX fluctuation which has given a hard lesson from 1997 economic hard time though.
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Last edited by Wisarut; October 30th, 2016 at 07:53 PM. Reason: Addendum
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Old October 31st, 2016, 07:02 PM   #657
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It needs to fund with higher cost 3% plus currency risk also.
170 k is very less for Thai ; equivalent to 3 lines of metro lines system.

Such a dumb, if anybody source with that rate and implied with the high cost of construction materials. 3.5 km is so reasonable construction ; lol.
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Old November 1st, 2016, 12:24 PM   #658
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The four high-speed-rail projects that are not expected to achieve their targets this fiscal year will be included in the 2017 plan. These are
  • the Bt179-billion 252.5-kilometre Bangkok-Nakhon Ratchasima route,
  • the Bt224-billion 382km Bangkok-Phitsanulok route,
  • the Bt152-billion 193.5km Bangkok-Rayong route, and
  • the Bt94.6-billion 165km Bangkok-Hua Hin route.
High Speed train lines would not be started in 2016 even though it is within the time line of 2016-2017
https://www.khaosod.co.th/economics/news_77369
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Old November 24th, 2016, 07:31 AM   #659
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Meanwhile, M’sia, Thailand to begin talks on Bangkok-KL HSR project - Thai Minister
Business News
The Star
Wednesday, 23 November 2016 | MYT 11:08 PM
Here is Thai versions of the news: Minister of Transport summonsing SRT to negotiate with KTMB for Thai - Malaysia High Speed Train after Malaysia - Singapore High Speed Contract is about to be signed.

BTW, 1400 km Thai - Malaysia High Speed Train is considered as the extension for High Speed train from Bangsue central to Hua Hin (the old seaside place found in 1911 after the discovery of Hua Hin Beach near Thamor Riang fishing village by Chief Engineer during the Construction of Southern line extension from Phetburi all the way to Malaya border).

Thai section will be on the first 900-1000 km while Malaysian section will be 400-500 km section. It is up to which country will study on the whole length or just study on the section within the country boundary.

There will be 5 stations for Bangsue Central - Hua Hin High Speed Train (221 km) though -
1. Bangsue Central,
2. Nakhon Pathom at the existing Nakhon Pathom station,
3. Rajburi station at Ban Khoo Bua (3 km South the existing Rajburi station),
4. Phetburi station on Phetkasem road (western end of Phetburi city municipal),
5. Hua Hin station at Bo Fai near Hua Hin Airport (4 km North of existing Hua Hin station)

the route will follow the same old Southern line with exception at Ban Pong curve which has to build anew with wider radius to meet the High Speed train standard of at least 250 kph.

For the section from Hua Hin to Padang besar, the name of stations will be as follows:

1. Prachuab Khirikhan
2. Chumporn
3. Surat Thani
4. Thung Song
5. Phatthalung
6. Hat Yai
7. Padang besar

However, the route has not been finalized yet.

So far, Thai government is planning to award Bangsue Central - Hua Hin High Speed Train to private sector who show interest to run the services while Japanese and Chinese government have shown strong interests to study on this Bangsue Central - Hua Hin High Speed Train as well as the extension to Padang Besar and KL.

http://www.dailynews.co.th/economic/538422
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Old November 24th, 2016, 09:35 AM   #660
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how likely is the southern section to pedang besar to be approved before 2020?
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