daily menu » rate the banner | guess the city | one on oneforums map | privacy policy | DMCA | news magazine | posting guidelines

Go Back   SkyscraperCity > Infrastructure and Mobility Forums > Railways

Railways (Inter)national commuter and freight trains



Global Announcement

As a general reminder, please respect others and respect copyrights. Go here to familiarize yourself with our posting policy.


Reply

 
Thread Tools
Old May 7th, 2013, 01:28 AM   #61
tonii
Registered User
 
tonii's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: London
Posts: 1,760
Likes (Received): 3293

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunfuns View Post
HSR could be a kind of populism as well. It can and sometimes is sold as a sign that the country is now technologically advanced and can afford something truly world class.
Well, that's kind of true. But I have to give you a bit of the background of the current government which its majority of the vote came from lower class people. Compare to the opposition party where majority of their votes came from middle class. So to make it populism policy, I doubt HSR is one of them.

I don't deny that the there is politic reason for every project that is pushed by the government. But this government is very well known for their economy stimulus policy. Bangkok 10 lines of urban metro system was also part of their policy. The new international airport was also part of their policy. And now the HSR and overall transportation infrastructure upgrade is also their current policy. I see more reason for them to push this from economy point of view rather than gaining political popularity from their main vote which doesn't get direct benefit from all of these. (well the freight transport will help, but still , it's more of the benefit to middle class rather than the lower class).
tonii no está en línea   Reply With Quote

Sponsored Links
Old May 7th, 2013, 12:09 PM   #62
hans280
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Paris
Posts: 755
Likes (Received): 172

Quote:
Originally Posted by tonii View Post
This is a very interesting point. I doubt the politician will gain much from pushing such project where it only affect the middle class up. Considering the current financial status of thai population. As much as everybody said in this thread. This project has a very high risk. The government would want to use those money in the populism project rather than HSR.

Maybe you could elaborate more?
Tonii, we have certainly had that argument here "on the continent". People wonder why the interior design of the TGV trains (even on first class) is so crummy. The truth is, the socialist government of Mitterand made a express decision to go for a spartan look in order to "democratiser la vitesse". They knew full-well that they were creating something for the better-off and wanted to avoid a PR disaster. The Spanish RENFE have done the exact opposite. Their AVE trains on main lines such as Madrid-Barcelona are billed as a replacement for airlines and they charge exactly the same (high!) prices that were previously paid for air tickets. The implicit message is: if you're the kind of person who wouldn't use domestic flights, then this train is not for you.
hans280 no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 7th, 2013, 12:31 PM   #63
Baron Hirsch
Kara Tren Solcusu
 
Baron Hirsch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Berlin/Istanbul
Posts: 1,337
Likes (Received): 475

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunfuns View Post
HSR could be a kind of populism as well. It can and sometimes is sold as a sign that the country is now technologically advanced and can afford something truly world class.
This is definitely the case here in Turkey, where the ruling party AKP in part resembles the Thai Rak Thai Party (only that they jailed the old establishment, not the other way around). Populism and a strong belief in 1960s style modernization (highways, nuclear power plants, giant airports, hydroelectric dams) are part of their repertoire. While they are very neoliberal in policy, they strangely have been very statist in their policy towards the railway, investing incredible amounts into the HSR network, which is still short at the moment but will connect several major cities by the end of the decade. High-speed train fares are around the same as the much slower intercity buses, which bus companies have attacked as they see it as an unfair subsidy and ruinous to their business. It must be a highly deficitary business, but the high-speed trains are being pushed as a traffic system very normal people can afford. The fares are definitely the lowest in Europe.
Baron Hirsch no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 7th, 2013, 01:55 PM   #64
Restless
Registered User
 
Restless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: London
Posts: 2,170
Likes (Received): 271

Quote:
Originally Posted by hans280 View Post
Tonii, we have certainly had that argument here "on the continent". People wonder why the interior design of the TGV trains (even on first class) is so crummy. The truth is, the socialist government of Mitterand made a express decision to go for a spartan look in order to "democratiser la vitesse". They knew full-well that they were creating something for the better-off and wanted to avoid a PR disaster. The Spanish RENFE have done the exact opposite. Their AVE trains on main lines such as Madrid-Barcelona are billed as a replacement for airlines and they charge exactly the same (high!) prices that were previously paid for air tickets. The implicit message is: if you're the kind of person who wouldn't use domestic flights, then this train is not for you.
Doesn't Barcelona-Madrid only run 17 trains per day, compared with a capacity of 150 trains per day?

And I suspect that the other HSR lines that RENFE are still building won't produce enough profit + other economic benefits to justify the cost of construction in the first place.

Think of bridges to nowhere - where it might be cheaper to let the bridge collapse rather than continue to maintain it for a few luxury vehicles.
Restless no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 7th, 2013, 08:24 PM   #65
Sunfuns
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Basel
Posts: 2,426
Likes (Received): 361

Quote:
Originally Posted by Restless View Post
Doesn't Barcelona-Madrid only run 17 trains per day, compared with a capacity of 150 trains per day?
That's a very theoretical maximum... How many trains do you think should be run there? That's exactly the same number of trains as runs between much bigger Paris and London. On both routes the majority takes the train instead of flying.

If you are looking for routes where 50 trains a day would make sense then you would never build anything anywhere in Europe.
Sunfuns no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 8th, 2013, 12:26 AM   #66
Restless
Registered User
 
Restless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: London
Posts: 2,170
Likes (Received): 271

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunfuns View Post
That's a very theoretical maximum... How many trains do you think should be run there? That's exactly the same number of trains as runs between much bigger Paris and London. On both routes the majority takes the train instead of flying.

If you are looking for routes where 50 trains a day would make sense then you would never build anything anywhere in Europe.
Let me make it real-life then.

On the Tokyo-Osaka line (515km) - looks like there are 142 trains per day
Beijing-Tianjin (115km) 60+ trains per day so far
Beijing-Shanghai (1368km) 90+ trains per day so far
London Euston to the North - looks like 100+ trains per day on the 220km/h service

These are the sorts of frequencies that are needed in order to make a high-speed train service worth building. But in order to do so, you need mass-market passenger traffic to do so, not just premium passengers. Then the resulting rise in property values around the stations could pay for all the construction costs

Does the Madrid-Barcelona line pay for itself and create enough economic benefit elsewhere to justify the investment?

===

And if we look to the Eurostar, they were expecting to run over 80 trains per day back in 2004.
But today there are only 27 eurostar trains from London and it has been a financial mess.

Generally international routes have a lot less traffic than domestic ones as well.
Restless no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 8th, 2013, 12:39 AM   #67
Restless
Registered User
 
Restless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: London
Posts: 2,170
Likes (Received): 271

Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Hirsch View Post
This is definitely the case here in Turkey, where the ruling party AKP in part resembles the Thai Rak Thai Party (only that they jailed the old establishment, not the other way around). Populism and a strong belief in 1960s style modernization (highways, nuclear power plants, giant airports, hydroelectric dams) are part of their repertoire. While they are very neoliberal in policy, they strangely have been very statist in their policy towards the railway, investing incredible amounts into the HSR network, which is still short at the moment but will connect several major cities by the end of the decade. High-speed train fares are around the same as the much slower intercity buses, which bus companies have attacked as they see it as an unfair subsidy and ruinous to their business. It must be a highly deficitary business, but the high-speed trains are being pushed as a traffic system very normal people can afford. The fares are definitely the lowest in Europe.
Mass passenger traffic is pretty much the only way a new rail line can ever hope to pay for itself.

There is a huge upfront investment cost to building a railway and a much smaller operating cost. So normally a railway ends up with a modest operating profit, but it's not enough to pay off the cost of construction.

Now, the interesting part is when you can push a lot of foot traffic through a train station. Then property values in the immediate area can increase dramatically with the number of shops and apartments built.
Eg. A 500 unit apartment block could create a profit of $100000 per apartment. So 20 apartment blocks around a station could be worth a cool $1billion
Restless no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 8th, 2013, 12:43 AM   #68
Sopomon
Hideous and malformed
 
Sopomon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 870
Likes (Received): 153

Quote:
Originally Posted by Restless View Post

And if we look to the Eurostar, they were expecting to run over 80 trains per day back in 2004.
But today there are only 27 eurostar trains from London and it has been a financial mess.

Generally international routes have a lot less traffic than domestic ones as well.

Eurostar is a profitable company, I believe.
__________________
And he kicked so many rosebushes at her that eventually, Sasuke turned into a log.
Sopomon no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 8th, 2013, 12:45 AM   #69
Sunfuns
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Basel
Posts: 2,426
Likes (Received): 361

Quote:
Originally Posted by Restless View Post
Let me make it real-life then.

On the Tokyo-Osaka line (515km) - looks like there are 142 trains per day
Beijing-Tianjin (115km) 60+ trains per day so far
Beijing-Shanghai (1368km) 90+ trains per day so far
London Euston to the North - looks like 100+ trains per day on the 220km/h service

These are the sorts of frequencies that are needed in order to make a high-speed train service worth building. But in order to do so, you need mass-market passenger traffic to do so, not just premium passengers. Then the resulting rise in property values around the stations could pay for all the construction costs

Does the Madrid-Barcelona line pay for itself and create enough economic benefit elsewhere to justify the investment?

===

And if we look to the Eurostar, they were expecting to run over 80 trains per day back in 2004.
But today there are only 27 eurostar trains from London and it has been a financial mess.

Generally international routes have a lot less traffic than domestic ones as well.
For 90% of European routes Chinese or Japanese frequencies is an impossible fantasy. There simply aren't that many passengers who would want to travel those routes regardless of price. Maybe with Indian prices, but who would support such enormous subsidies? And remember Japanese trains are just as expensive as European ones and so are Chinese when compared with average local incomes.

I'm sure Barcelona-Madrid more than pays for it's operating costs and basic infrastructure maintenance. Most high speed services do. Not certain about Renfe, but Deutsche Bahn and SNCF definitely make profits from those.
Sunfuns no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 8th, 2013, 12:48 AM   #70
Restless
Registered User
 
Restless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: London
Posts: 2,170
Likes (Received): 271

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sopomon View Post
Eurostar is a profitable company, I believe.
After most of their debts were "restructured"
Restless no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 8th, 2013, 12:49 AM   #71
Sunfuns
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Basel
Posts: 2,426
Likes (Received): 361

And having said all that there could be few more trains on the aforementioned line in Spain. Perhaps there will be when a competing company will be allowed to operate on the line in few years time. There will never be 90 or 140, though.
Sunfuns no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 8th, 2013, 01:15 AM   #72
Restless
Registered User
 
Restless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: London
Posts: 2,170
Likes (Received): 271

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunfuns View Post
For 90% of European routes Chinese or Japanese frequencies is an impossible fantasy. There simply aren't that many passengers who would want to travel those routes regardless of price. Maybe with Indian prices, but who would support such enormous subsidies? And remember Japanese trains are just as expensive as European ones and so are Chinese when compared with average local incomes.

I'm sure Barcelona-Madrid more than pays for it's operating costs and basic infrastructure maintenance. Most high speed services do. Not certain about Renfe, but Deutsche Bahn and SNCF definitely make profits from those.
Yes, 90% of routes in Europe simply don't have the traffic to ever run at East Asian traffic levels, even at Indian prices.
Japanese prices are very high, but I think that's more to do with Japan and the extremely high service levels they have, and the fact that they have a captive market with little competition from planes or cars.

And when I look at Beijing-Shanghai versus Madrid-Barcelona I see

Madrid-Barcelona
$57000 GDP per person
$222 for a 621km journey

Beijing-Shanghai
$13000 GDP per person
$90 for a 1368km journey (the equivalent of $41 for 621km)

So you can see that Beijing-Shanghai is more affordable than Madrid-Barcelona, even accounting for the GDP differential.

And this ignores the fact that incomes in China are still rising by 15%-20% per year, whilst rail fares are almost fixed.
Restless no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 8th, 2013, 01:38 AM   #73
Sunfuns
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Basel
Posts: 2,426
Likes (Received): 361

You are exaggerating Spanish prices, they have been lowered recently. 150 euros return tickets are easy to obtain, if bought few weeks in advance 100 euros are possible as well.

Spanish HSR is not the most expensive in Europe any more. I believe that honour now goes to Deutsche Bahn.
Sunfuns no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 8th, 2013, 02:36 AM   #74
OriK
Usuario Registrado
 
OriK's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 721
Likes (Received): 173

Quote:
Originally Posted by Restless View Post
Does the Madrid-Barcelona line pay for itself and create enough economic benefit elsewhere to justify the investment?
If I remember correctly, the Madrid-Barcelona HS services have an economic return of ~130%

That means thaf for each invested euro... Renfe gets 1'30€ that surplus is used to compensate the deficit on some newer HS lines that have a return of ~90%

Globaly, the HS network in Spain is profitable.
OriK no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 8th, 2013, 01:51 PM   #75
Restless
Registered User
 
Restless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: London
Posts: 2,170
Likes (Received): 271

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunfuns View Post
You are exaggerating Spanish prices, they have been lowered recently. 150 euros return tickets are easy to obtain, if bought few weeks in advance 100 euros are possible as well.

Spanish HSR is not the most expensive in Europe any more. I believe that honour now goes to Deutsche Bahn.
ok, if a single ticket is 75euro that is USD$100, then your previous assertion about relative affordability is valid.
It'll probably be true for the next 5 years, as wages in China will probably be double what they are today.

But it just highlights the point I was trying to make earlier. If you have a high-speed railway, the best way to run it is to lower prices and get as many passengers as you can.

Last edited by Restless; May 8th, 2013 at 02:00 PM.
Restless no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 8th, 2013, 02:28 PM   #76
Restless
Registered User
 
Restless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: London
Posts: 2,170
Likes (Received): 271

Quote:
Originally Posted by OriK View Post
If I remember correctly, the Madrid-Barcelona HS services have an economic return of ~130%

That means thaf for each invested euro... Renfe gets 1'30€ that surplus is used to compensate the deficit on some newer HS lines that have a return of ~90%

Globaly, the HS network in Spain is profitable.
Just to clarify, is that definition of economic return composed of:
operating profit - depreciation/interest + wider benefits to the economy

===

So for the newer lines with less benefit than what they cost, would you agree that they should never have been built in the first place?

And should rail services like the one below even have been started? How did they get the traffic estimates so wrong, given they already had the data on existing passengers?

Spain cuts high speed 'ghost train'
Spain's state-controlled rail operator has been forced to axe one of its newest high speed train services after it emerged that the only nine passengers were using it each day.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ost-train.html
Restless no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 8th, 2013, 05:33 PM   #77
OriK
Usuario Registrado
 
OriK's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 721
Likes (Received): 173

What do you mean by depreciation/interest... Renfe just gets more money that the amount they expend...

All lines start being unprofitable... and the link you mentioned is completely tendencious, that line was an experiment over existing infraestructure (no waste in infraestructure!) and they got 9 passengers MORE than when a transfer was required, so they cancelled the direct link and now transfer is compulsory again...
OriK no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 8th, 2013, 10:47 PM   #78
napoleon
Liberty, Equality, Frate
 
napoleon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 75,270
Likes (Received): 4458

Hitachi eyes train project

The Nation May 9, 2013 1:00 am

Hiroaki Nakanishi, chairman of Hitachi, yesterday held talks with Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra at Government House on the company's interest in participating in development of operating systems for the high-speed-rail project.

Nakanishi said Hitachi had invested continuously in the Kingdom, the company's production hub in the region. Yingluck thanked the chairman for Hitachi's commitment and confidence in Thailand and expressed her wish for an extension of coordination between the two countries. Japanese firms such as Hitachi are welcome to take part in Thailand's infrastructure project, which requires a huge investment of more than US$67 billion (Bt2 trillion), she said. Hitachi is a diversified company and has 11 business segments, including IT systems, electrical systems, social and industrial systems, automotive systems, electronic-component devices, and construction and financial services.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/busi...-30205720.html
napoleon no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 9th, 2013, 03:26 PM   #79
Restless
Registered User
 
Restless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: London
Posts: 2,170
Likes (Received): 271

Quote:
Originally Posted by OriK View Post
What do you mean by depreciation/interest... Renfe just gets more money that the amount they expend...

All lines start being unprofitable... and the link you mentioned is completely tendencious, that line was an experiment over existing infraestructure (no waste in infraestructure!) and they got 9 passengers MORE than when a transfer was required, so they cancelled the direct link and now transfer is compulsory again...
9 extra passengers at an additional 18000euro of operating cost.

For 18000euro, they must have been expecting at least 200 passengers to make it worthwhile. That is a huge margin of error, given they already had the data to model this.

===
Doesn't RENFE account for interest/depreciation/debt repayments? For a railway line, this is normally larger than the actual operating costs.

I'll give you a recent example with this.

Beijing-Tianjin 350km/h HSR
Length: 115km
Construction Cost: 20.42 billion RMB (about US$ 3.4billion)

Interest on the construction debt: 0.6 billion RMB per year
Construction Depreciation over 20years: 20.42 / 20years = 1 billion RMB per year

===

1st year of operation in 2008
Revenue: 1.1 billion RMB

Total Cost: 2.8 billion RMB
-Operating Cost: 1.2 billion RMB
-Interest Cost: 0.6 billion RMB
-Depreciation: 1 billion RMB

===

It's taken from 2008 to 2012 for revenue to match cash going out.

But to do this, they're running large trains with a capacity of 1000 passengers every 15minutes, so that's 60+ trains per day.

These construction, operating and interest costs are low by HSR standards.

Plus revenue will likely double within 10years whilst total costs won't increase much. So it will probably be judged a phenomenal success because it will be carrying 50million people a year and will be really profitable.

NB. If you ever look at the project appraisals for Eurotunnel or Eurostar, they are truly awful by any standard. The Anglo-French consortium treated the project as a cash cow to be overbilled at will, which left huge upfront debts that could never hope to be repaid by Eurotunnel/Eurostar.
Restless no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old May 9th, 2013, 04:02 PM   #80
Sopomon
Hideous and malformed
 
Sopomon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 870
Likes (Received): 153

"Plus revenue will likely double within 10years whilst total costs won't increase much. So it will probably be judged a phenomenal success because it will be carrying 50million people a year and will be really profitable."

That's the most amazing amount of projection that I've come across in a long while.

BACK TO THAILAND...
__________________
And he kicked so many rosebushes at her that eventually, Sasuke turned into a log.
Sopomon no está en línea   Reply With Quote


Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Related topics on SkyscraperCity


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 11:47 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11 Beta 4
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Feedback Buttons provided by Advanced Post Thanks / Like (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2018 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.

vBulletin Optimisation provided by vB Optimise (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2018 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.

SkyscraperCity ☆ In Urbanity We trust ☆ about us | privacy policy | DMCA policy

tech management by Sysprosium