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Old May 9th, 2013, 04:06 PM   #81
Sunfuns
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That service with 9 extra passengers was obviously a miscalculation and was dropped in short order. Do note however, that there was no extra infrastructure spending on the line or rolling stock to provide it.

All Spanish lines are capable of providing an operating profit which accounts for salaries, rolling stock, track access charges (to Adif) and depreciation. What is not included is the capital costs of construction of the line. Those can not be repaid by the railway alone and I doubt there was ever an expectation of that happening.
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Old May 9th, 2013, 04:07 PM   #82
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But yes, let's go back to Thailand
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Old May 9th, 2013, 04:15 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by Sopomon View Post
"Plus revenue will likely double within 10years whilst total costs won't increase much. So it will probably be judged a phenomenal success because it will be carrying 50million people a year and will be really profitable."

That's the most amazing amount of projection that I've come across in a long while.

BACK TO THAILAND...
That is a conservative estimate by the way, given the railway has already been built and is running today.

In 5-7years, incomes in China will probably be double what they are today, because of widespead labour shortages which will only get worse from now.

That will vastly increase the number of travelers from the 25milliion we see today. And we're talking about Beijing (13million) and Tianjin (6million) only being 30minutes from each other. That's daily commuting distance.

So 50million is reasonable, given population growth in those cities and increased incomes.

Then you can see that the interest and depreciation are FIXED and account for most of the total cost. So total costs do not scale directly with the number of people. Experience from other HSR networks shows a modest increase in total costs with every doubling of passengers.

So you can see that revenue will scale upwards directly based on the number of people whilst costs don't rise as much. Plus it ignores the fact that a richer population has the ability to pay higher ticket prices, but we're not going down that road today.

===
NB. Every infrastructure project like this has a 20-30year projection. Have a look at the World Bank or Asian Development Bank to see some examples.
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Old May 9th, 2013, 04:23 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by Sunfuns View Post
That service with 9 extra passengers was obviously a miscalculation and was dropped in short order. Do not however, that there was no extra infrastructure spending on the line or rolling stock to provide it.

All Spanish lines are capable of providing an operating profit which accounts for salaries, rolling stock, track access charges (to Adif) and depreciation. What is not included is the capital costs of construction of the line. Those can not be repaid by the railway alone and I doubt there was ever an expectation of that ever happening.
That makes sense.

But the capital construction costs should be accounted for in some way, and there has to be enough social/economic benefits elsewhere.

Otherwise why add this to the debt issued by the Spanish government, which is now threatening to bankrupt the country?
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Old May 9th, 2013, 05:04 PM   #85
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It's all good then, looking forward to see pictures of actual construction soon.

As for Thai economy, I was roughly familiar with the situation already. It's much better than in neighbouring Laos or Myanmar, nevertheless among countries having, currently building or seriously contemplating HSR only Morocco has lover GDP per capita.
China is currently at the same wealth level with Thailand.

And the Guangzhou-Guiyang mixed passenger and freight railway is roughly comparable to what Thailand is looking for.

There are loads of project reports from the world bank below, which tell you almost everything you would want to know. I'd be surprised if the Thai government hasn't already studied this in depth, and used some of it as the basis for their requirements.
http://www.worldbank.org/projects/P1...ailway?lang=en
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Old May 9th, 2013, 05:11 PM   #86
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Siemens targets big projects

Published: 7 May 2013

Munich-based Siemens, an industrial bellwether that makes products ranging from fast trains and gas turbines to hearing aids, foresees flourishing prospects for its Thai operations particularly in line with the government's planned 2-trillion-baht infrastructure projects.

Siemens is interested in a joint development with the government in the mass transit system and, thanks to a variety of technologies, it is well equipped for any joint investments, said Roland Busch, chief executive of Siemens' infrastructure and cities sector.

"[Apart from Thailand], there are several countries where we are interested to invest, including Singapore, where the company is already involved in some infrastructure investments," he said.

"Siemens is also exploring an investment opportunity in Vietnam, where there is anticipated rapid city expansion, particularly in Ho Chi Minh City."

In the German train giant's first foray into local manufacturing, Siemens last year agreed to set up a 50-50 joint venture with Cho Thavee Dollasien Co (CTV-Doll), a Khon Kaen company, to assemble passenger coaches in Thailand.

CTV-Doll will be responsible for manufacturing, assembling and maintenance of the coaches; detailed engineering and assembling of the interiors using local materials whenever possible; and manufacturing complete car body shells including painting.

Siemens will complete the coach designs, provide technical assistance and supply complete bogies and other major components from Vienna.

Mr Busch said Siemens's main focus is to introduce more clean technologies as part of the effort to protect the environment and cope with climate change.

He said cities have been expanding rapidly around the world. The question is how can Siemens take care of health and quality of life while maintaining economic growth, he said.

With demand for energy also rising, Siemens must use energy more efficiently, invest wisely, have high-quality industries and use technologies that benefit health, Mr Busch said.

Siemens is offering a leadership award to those who have distinguished roles.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/...s-big-projects
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Old May 9th, 2013, 05:41 PM   #87
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China is currently at the same wealth level with Thailand.

And the Guangzhou-Guiyang mixed passenger and freight railway is roughly comparable to what Thailand is looking for.

There are loads of project reports from the world bank below, which tell you almost everything you would want to know. I'd be surprised if the Thai government hasn't already studied this in depth, and used some of it as the basis for their requirements.
http://www.worldbank.org/projects/P1...ailway?lang=en
Yes, but what I was questioning initially is not whether the system would be useful but whether the government has enough money to build it in the first place. It's not the same.

China is already moving rapidly into higher level economy investing a lot in education and research, can't say the same about Thailand. I'd be surprised if the former is not well ahead of the latter in terms of GDP in another decade.

Anecdotal evidence: I work in a scientific research and every year there are more and more top level publications from China in my field (#2 in Asia now). Japan is the world leader only behind US, South Korea is doing ok but not as well as one would expect given the size of their economy, same goes for Taiwan, something semi-serious has started to emerge from India (mostly still copy-cat), few strong spots in Singapore as well. The contribution of the rest of Asia has been very close to zero so far...
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Old May 10th, 2013, 01:14 AM   #88
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Yes, but what I was questioning initially is not whether the system would be useful but whether the government has enough money to build it in the first place. It's not the same.

China is already moving rapidly into higher level economy investing a lot in education and research, can't say the same about Thailand. I'd be surprised if the former is not well ahead of the latter in terms of GDP in another decade.

Anecdotal evidence: I work in a scientific research and every year there are more and more top level publications from China in my field (#2 in Asia now). Japan is the world leader only behind US, South Korea is doing ok but not as well as one would expect given the size of their economy, same goes for Taiwan, something semi-serious has started to emerge from India (mostly still copy-cat), few strong spots in Singapore as well. The contribution of the rest of Asia has been very close to zero so far...
There's a sortable ranking on Wikipedia on R&D spending, and you can see how Thailand is only spending 0.25% which is really low.

Then there's China and much of Europe at the 2.0% mark.

So I agree that Thailand won't grow as fast as China, but they will still be subject to the same growing pains in transportation and urbanisation, just a little later.

But China's growth is now spilling over into SE Asia in a big way, and will lift everyone them up as well.
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Old May 10th, 2013, 01:57 AM   #89
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But the capital construction costs should be accounted for in some way, and there has to be enough social/economic benefits elsewhere.

Otherwise why add this to the debt issued by the Spanish government, which is now threatening to bankrupt the country?
Those projects were started in a different economic climate with high growth and record low unemployment. At the time it seemed that income from other areas will easily afford enough money to pay for massive infrastructure upgrades (highways as well, not just HSR). Now they are just trying to finish (and not even all of it) what was started during the good times and where a lot of money has been spent already. It makes sense to do so even if at slower pace. It will be easier to make a profit with rail once the economic climate improves again and the new lines will probably be in use longer than any of us here are alive.
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Old May 10th, 2013, 05:39 AM   #90
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9 extra passengers at an additional 18000euro of operating cost.

For 18000euro, they must have been expecting at least 200 passengers to make it worthwhile. That is a huge margin of error, given they already had the data to model this.

===
Doesn't RENFE account for interest/depreciation/debt repayments? For a railway line, this is normally larger than the actual operating costs.

I'll give you a recent example with this.

Beijing-Tianjin 350km/h HSR
Length: 115km
Construction Cost: 20.42 billion RMB (about US$ 3.4billion)

Interest on the construction debt: 0.6 billion RMB per year
Construction Depreciation over 20years: 20.42 / 20years = 1 billion RMB per year

===

1st year of operation in 2008
Revenue: 1.1 billion RMB

Total Cost: 2.8 billion RMB
-Operating Cost: 1.2 billion RMB
-Interest Cost: 0.6 billion RMB
-Depreciation: 1 billion RMB

===

It's taken from 2008 to 2012 for revenue to match cash going out.

But to do this, they're running large trains with a capacity of 1000 passengers every 15minutes, so that's 60+ trains per day.

These construction, operating and interest costs are low by HSR standards.

Plus revenue will likely double within 10years whilst total costs won't increase much. So it will probably be judged a phenomenal success because it will be carrying 50million people a year and will be really profitable.

NB. If you ever look at the project appraisals for Eurotunnel or Eurostar, they are truly awful by any standard. The Anglo-French consortium treated the project as a cash cow to be overbilled at will, which left huge upfront debts that could never hope to be repaid by Eurotunnel/Eurostar.
This is getting really offtopic but anyway...

That service was a Toledo-Madrid-Cuenca-Albacete AVE train... previously (and currently) there was Madrid-Toledo and Madrid-Cuenca-Albacete services... as Toledo, Cuenca and Albacete are cities within the same region they tried this new service... without investing a single euro in infrastructure... what did they find out? ... that people was traveling Madrid-Toledo or Madrid-Cuenca/Albacete as previously and only 9~ persons per train were traveling beyond Madrid... so they split again the route as it didn't make sense... that doesn't mean that there was only 9 persons in the train, probably the number was over 200... but everybody was leaving/boarding at Madrid.

And no, RENFE doesn't account for interest/depreciation/debt (except for the trains, but it's included in the balance)... 1st of all, RENFE doesn't exist since 8 years ago when it was splitted in Renfe and Adif... since then, Renfe operates the railways (among other operators) and Adif manages the infrastructure (among other managers).

Renfe and the other operators pay a fee to Adif (or the owner of the infrastructure) to operate trains on that infrastructure.

The HS lines in Spain are built with an amortization period of 100 years (not 20) but it's a fact that Adif covers more than the HSL maintenance costs with Renfe's fees... anyway the best solution in Spain was making high speed lines as the initial studies indicated that an upgrade or a new conventional line has a similar construction cost (it's higher but not by far) and the operation wouldn't be profitable. Anyway, why people is always worrying about railways amortizations and never about highway amortizations? both of them have a huge indirect economic impact and a direct social impact.
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Old May 10th, 2013, 09:48 AM   #91
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Will Bangkok have another HSR station besides Bang Sue? I can't imagine coming out from Suvarnabhumi, and taking the Airport Link to Bang Sue just to go to Pattaya.
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Old May 10th, 2013, 11:37 AM   #92
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The high speed line for Bangkok-Pattaya-Rayong line will have its own station, as it will be an extension of the Airport Rail Link.
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Old May 10th, 2013, 01:51 PM   #93
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This is getting really offtopic but anyway...

That service was a Toledo-Madrid-Cuenca-Albacete AVE train... previously (and currently) there was Madrid-Toledo and Madrid-Cuenca-Albacete services... as Toledo, Cuenca and Albacete are cities within the same region they tried this new service... without investing a single euro in infrastructure... what did they find out? ... that people was traveling Madrid-Toledo or Madrid-Cuenca/Albacete as previously and only 9~ persons per train were traveling beyond Madrid... so they split again the route as it didn't make sense... that doesn't mean that there was only 9 persons in the train, probably the number was over 200... but everybody was leaving/boarding at Madrid.

And no, RENFE doesn't account for interest/depreciation/debt (except for the trains, but it's included in the balance)... 1st of all, RENFE doesn't exist since 8 years ago when it was splitted in Renfe and Adif... since then, Renfe operates the railways (among other operators) and Adif manages the infrastructure (among other managers).

Renfe and the other operators pay a fee to Adif (or the owner of the infrastructure) to operate trains on that infrastructure.

The HS lines in Spain are built with an amortization period of 100 years (not 20) but it's a fact that Adif covers more than the HSL maintenance costs with Renfe's fees... anyway the best solution in Spain was making high speed lines as the initial studies indicated that an upgrade or a new conventional line has a similar construction cost (it's higher but not by far) and the operation wouldn't be profitable. Anyway, why people is always worrying about railways amortizations and never about highway amortizations? both of them have a huge indirect economic impact and a direct social impact.
I'm thinking that 100years for amortisation seems like a long long time, since they have to rebuild and update the system after 30years.

And who does loans or mortgages for 100years? 30years seems to be the practical limit.

I think highways get away with amortization, because they usually end up running beyond their design capacity.
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Old May 10th, 2013, 02:21 PM   #94
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I'm thinking that 100years for amortisation seems like a long long time, since they have to rebuild and update the system after 30years.

And who does loans or mortgages for 100years? 30years seems to be the practical limit.
Ask it this way: what does it cost to rebuild and update a 30 year old railway on an existing right of way, compared to building a brand new railway through existing property?
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Old May 10th, 2013, 04:12 PM   #95
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Ask it this way: what does it cost to rebuild and update a 30 year old railway on an existing right of way, compared to building a brand new railway through existing property?
Exactly. The main British railway lines built 150 years ago are mostly still in use. Well maintained railways last a lot longer than 30 years and of course so do highways. 30 year mortgage limitation is for completely different reasons.
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Old May 10th, 2013, 11:52 PM   #96
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Ask it this way: what does it cost to rebuild and update a 30 year old railway on an existing right of way, compared to building a brand new railway through existing property?
Who knows? It's 30 years in the future and will depend on inflation and what needs to be done and how.

The West Coast Main Line constructed in the previous century in the UK was recently upgraded (ie. rebuilt to handle 220km/h tilting trains). The project costs overran so that it would probably have been cheaper to build an entirely new one in the first place.

But 10years ago in one of the rounds of trunkline speedups in China, the old lines were upgraded to 200km/h for barely $1million per kilometre.

Last edited by Restless; May 10th, 2013 at 11:57 PM.
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Old May 11th, 2013, 12:00 AM   #97
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Exactly. The main British railway lines built 150 years ago are mostly still in use. Well maintained railways last a lot longer than 30 years and of course so do highways. 30 year mortgage limitation is for completely different reasons.
The signalling and electronics generally have to be replaced in one go, with lifespans of 30 years in mind.

HSR trains are normally built with 10years of operation in mind.
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Old May 11th, 2013, 02:18 AM   #98
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The signalling and electronics generally have to be replaced in one go, with lifespans of 30 years in mind.

HSR trains are normally built with 10years of operation in mind.
10 years?

These trains have been running for 21 years...
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Old May 11th, 2013, 09:44 AM   #99
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Will Bangkok have another HSR station besides Bang Sue? I can't imagine coming out from Suvarnabhumi, and taking the Airport Link to Bang Sue just to go to Pattaya.
Bangsue will be the main station for northern, north eastern and southern line. Makkasan (currently main station for airport rail link) will be used for the main station of eastern line.

So going to Pattaya will used the existing link of ARL and expand from that. There is still no clear info whether you can go to Pattaya directly from the airport or you have to go back into the town first. I doubt it would be the former. Because the line HSR line from Bangsue terminal will pass through Don Mueang which will have its own HSR station as well. It should be the same case here.

Airport Link will play a major role in the future where it expansion will go through Bangsue and then Don Mueang which will completely link 2 airports and 2 main HSR station together.
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Old May 11th, 2013, 09:12 PM   #100
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Most high speed lines in the world are being built with high intensity operation with as little as 3minutes between trains.

Therefore any train faults effectively shut down the entire line, and old trains are more likely to break down.

Now, AVE can get away with this, because there are only 1 or 2 trains per hour. Fewer trains means a lower likelihood of a breakdown occurring. And if the railway is bidirectional, then they can just shunt them onto the other track which has the spare capacity.

Eurotunnel have a nice little diagram explaining how it works, because they shut down sections for maintenance all the time.
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