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Old May 11th, 2013, 10:20 PM   #101
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Can we stop talking about Spain for goodness sakes
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Old May 12th, 2013, 12:52 AM   #102
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I'm thinking that Bangkok is a primate city with 14million people and there aren't any other cities with more than 200K people anywhere else in Thailand.

So my gut feeling is that passenger traffic is going to be really sparse, and it is going to take a long long time before there's significant traffic.

Then freight traffic is going to be fairly limited because trucks are normally the fastest and cheapest way to transport goods door-to-door. And longer distance international freight is going to be fairly limited, at least in the beginning.

But then again, it's still worth building if it's cheap enough and the costs listed seem reasonable given the benchmarks set elsewhere.
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Old May 12th, 2013, 01:31 AM   #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Restless View Post
I'm thinking that Bangkok is a primate city with 14million people and there aren't any other cities with more than 200K people anywhere else in Thailand.
I know it's a recognised term, but it still sounds like a city inhabited by monkeys

Which it might be, but hopefully a lot less than 14 million
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Old May 12th, 2013, 02:10 AM   #104
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I think that's the real problem for this project. Unless there are a lot of people who move, regularly, from Bangkok to other cities in Thailand, either to commute or travel, I don't know how much use this will actually see. Thailand is one of the most strongly primate countries in the world, so unless there's a mass exodus out of Bangkok (due to higher living expenses, better quality of life outside the city, etc.), and other cities grow much, much faster than Bangkok in the future, I don't know how much use this system will see.

Certainly, there are precedents for non-central-metro growth happening after transportation to those places grow, but it will have to happen on a massive scale for this to be truly useful.
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Old May 12th, 2013, 02:25 AM   #105
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I think that's the real problem for this project. Unless there are a lot of people who move, regularly, from Bangkok to other cities in Thailand, either to commute or travel, I don't know how much use this will actually see. Thailand is one of the most strongly primate countries in the world, so unless there's a mass exodus out of Bangkok (due to higher living expenses, better quality of life outside the city, etc.), and other cities grow much, much faster than Bangkok in the future, I don't know how much use this system will see.

Certainly, there are precedents for non-central-metro growth happening after transportation to those places grow, but it will have to happen on a massive scale for this to be truly useful.
It's certainly doable, cos you only have to look at Shenzhen to see what is possible.

1980
100,000 people in a bunch of villages

2008
14million people in the city
Richest per capita city in China

The saying was "one skyscraper a day", but that was when they were on steroids.
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Old May 12th, 2013, 06:37 AM   #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aquaticko View Post
I think that's the real problem for this project. Unless there are a lot of people who move, regularly, from Bangkok to other cities in Thailand, either to commute or travel, I don't know how much use this will actually see. Thailand is one of the most strongly primate countries in the world, so unless there's a mass exodus out of Bangkok (due to higher living expenses, better quality of life outside the city, etc.), and other cities grow much, much faster than Bangkok in the future, I don't know how much use this system will see.

Certainly, there are precedents for non-central-metro growth happening after transportation to those places grow, but it will have to happen on a massive scale for this to be truly useful.
This is quite true. As far as I can see , only northern line where Chiang Mai is the fastest growing city outside Bangkok (2 digits GDP growth rate as I heard) and they expect it to be 2nd capital city of the country. And then eastern line where all the factory , port and tourist place like Pattaya, Rayong and Chonburi has a huge amount foreigner who come to stay and work especially white and japanese (they dont get included in the official population number of course).

Thailand has always been a one big city since the beginning of country history. Due to the fear of the region wars which will come to the fight for splitting country. As none of them was a real part of thailand before. So all the political power, country investment always come from Bangkok. And most of the time stay in Bangkok. Then after 300 years when everthing is stable and everbody realize that we cannot keep it going on like this forever. As the country need the spread the advancenent and civilization to the other part of the country too. This is one of the very reason why the govern push all the transportation project so much including HSR.

It is possible if they could wait for the region city to grow enough to build a viable market and passenger for a project like this. But I doubt it would happen anytime soon without getting push by the government or this type of project. Thailand has no steroid power like China. The interesting thing about it is, even the project doesnt get official head start yet. All the property sell and price is going up significantly across the line where HSR will pass through. And all preparation regarding to the construction , human resource has alreasy start and build up a lot of good atmosphere. Many university already prepare for the course of train system and engineer to build the resource to support this project as they expect all thise student will be graduate and ready as soon as the construction finish. So financially it is still a doubt how can the economy can maintain and system. But it already build up a very good atmostphere there even from the starting point.
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Old May 12th, 2013, 12:12 PM   #107
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Due to the 300 baht (10$) minimum wage per day implemented all over the country, many people are moving back to their home towns.

Thailand does have big cities beside Bangkok (although not as big). As Bangkok is a special governed district you always get the number of population of the whole city, while other cities only get their population number within the city center only, hence the low population number as listed in wikipedia and other websites.

Here's an example of Chiang Mai. Unlike Bangkok it is more spread out and there is a height restriction on tall buildings all over the city due to its 700 years of Lanna history.


http://www.nexus.co.th/index.php


Chiang Mai City is located on the upper left side.

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Old May 12th, 2013, 12:51 PM   #108
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How many people in Bangkok are actually reasonably well off? Let's define "reasonably well off" as earning at least 500 $ a month. Do Thai middle class people travel around their country in their free time? If there are couple million of people like that in Bangkok plus all the foreigners who arrive in Bangkok, but usually want to go somewhere else as well, then there should be enough demand for 10-15 trains a day min.
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Old May 12th, 2013, 01:36 PM   #109
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500$ a month or 15.000 baht is the minimum wage for those with bachelor's degree.
And thais do travel a lot. Here's the statistic from last year.

Thailand tourism statistic

2012

22.3 million foreign tourists
960 billion baht = 31.61 billion dollars

112 million domestic travels by thais (one person may travel more than once)
500 billion baht = 16.46 billion dollars

Foreign + domestic tourism revenue
1.46 trillion baht = 48,07 billion dollars

---------------------------------------------------------------

Data from 2011

19.09 million foreign tourists
734.59 billion baht = 23.46 billion dollars
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Old May 12th, 2013, 04:34 PM   #110
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It's certainly a good idea to prepare for the long-term future, and I'm sure that having some people move out of the Bangkok metropolitan area would help to increase quality of living for everyone. It's also great to hear that they're instituting a minimum wage; that's the sort of socio-economic development that all countries, everywhere, should push for.

I guess I'm just glad to see Thailand doing so many things right .
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Old May 14th, 2013, 12:01 AM   #111
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Rail-related MoU with Korea approved

The Nation May 7, 2013 5:59 pm

The Cabinet on Tuesday approved the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Thailand's Ministry of Transport and Korea's Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs for a rail system development cooperation.

The MOU involves mutual cooperation in the areas ranging from advice, training, academic assistance, study visits, exchange of information concerning policies and regulations and staff, to workshops and seminars.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/brea...-30205609.html
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Old May 14th, 2013, 12:03 AM   #112
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Thai-French high-speed rail pact likely

Published: 11 May 2013

Thailand and France are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) next month on developing high-speed rail here and modernising the State Railway of Thailand's operations and services.

Fre´de´ric Cuvillier, France’s minister delegate for transport, maritime and fishing affairs, says his country is committed to helping Thailand develop its infrastructure. PATIPAT JANTHONG

Fre'de'ric Cuvillier, the French minister delegate for transport, maritime and fishing affairs, said the agreement will emphasise mutual cooperation on transport development.

The two countries must still decide on the private sector's role in developing the project as well as rules and regulations, he said.

The French government is committed to cooperating with the Thai government on developing its 2-trillion-baht infrastructure programme, said Mr Cuvillier.

He said France has a technological edge on its competitors in high-speed train expertise since it has been developing them for decades.

Another advantage is guaranteed safety, which France prioritises in the development process, said Mr Cuvillier.

He said France is committed to developing Thailand as a logistics hub for the upcoming Asean Economic Community.

The minister said his visit is aimed at strengthening bilateral relations in investment, transport and technical cooperation.

The French private sector will be encouraged to provide technical assistance for the project, he said.

Mr Cuvillier arrived in Thailand on Thursday and leaves tomorrow.

His arrival follows a visit by French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault and Foreign Trade Minister Nicole Bricq to Thailand in February.

The trip also focuses on supporting projects in which French enterprises are involved, encouraging reciprocal investments in both countries and access to the Thai market for French products and investments.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingn...il-pact-likely
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Old May 14th, 2013, 12:05 AM   #113
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Rayong added to high-speed rail link

Published: 13 May 2013

Bidding for the construction of a high-speed train line to Rayong is expected to be held by the first quarter of next year, State Railway of Thailand (SRT) governor Prapat Chongsanguan said on Monday.

The decision to set a timeline follows the launch of a study on the environmental impact and other details which could be completed in the next six months, he said.

“The signing of the construction contracts could be no later than the first quarter of next year,’’ Mr Prapat told FM90.5 news programme.

Initial plans were to build a high-speed train from Bangkok to Pattaya, but Rayong would be added.

Mr Prapat said the railway agency had forwarded the plan change to the Transport Ministry to build the line from Bangkok to Rayong. The new plan needs cabinet approval.

Other routes to be built are lines from Bangkok to Chiang Mai, Nong Khai and Padang Besar. Construction will be carried out in phases.

The Pattaya to Rayong route is expected to be completed first as the SRT is responsible for the study, while the other projects are under the Office of Transport and Policy and Planning, he said.

The line will be built along the existing track to avoid problems with land expropriation.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/tran...rain-to-rayong
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Old May 15th, 2013, 10:18 AM   #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Restless View Post
China is currently at the same wealth level with Thailand.

And the Guangzhou-Guiyang mixed passenger and freight railway is roughly comparable to what Thailand is looking for.

There are loads of project reports from the world bank below, which tell you almost everything you would want to know. I'd be surprised if the Thai government hasn't already studied this in depth, and used some of it as the basis for their requirements.
http://www.worldbank.org/projects/P1...ailway?lang=en
Are you sure about that? I believe China is wealthier than Thai...
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Old May 15th, 2013, 11:00 AM   #115
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Are you sure about that? I believe China is wealthier than Thai...
Depends on how you judge it. If for the total economy size. Yes China is welthier than Thailand. But not for GDP/Capita.
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Old May 15th, 2013, 11:02 AM   #116
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2012

China
GDP per capita (nominal): 6,075.919
GDP per capita (ppp) 9,161.967

Thailand
GDP per capita (nominal): 5,678
GDP per capita (ppp) 10,125.581


2013 (estimate)

China
GDP per capita (nominal): 6,628.860
GDP per capita (ppp) 10,011.481

Thailand
GDP per capita (nominal): 6,571.905
GDP per capita (ppp) 10,848.738

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/...PPPPC&grp=0&a=
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Old May 15th, 2013, 10:37 PM   #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Codename B View Post
500$ a month or 15.000 baht is the minimum wage for those with bachelor's degree.
And thais do travel a lot. Here's the statistic from last year.

Thailand tourism statistic

2012

22.3 million foreign tourists
960 billion baht = 31.61 billion dollars

112 million domestic travels by thais (one person may travel more than once)
500 billion baht = 16.46 billion dollars

Foreign + domestic tourism revenue
1.46 trillion baht = 48,07 billion dollars

---------------------------------------------------------------

Data from 2011

19.09 million foreign tourists
734.59 billion baht = 23.46 billion dollars
I heard from the news that at the time HSR project finish. The total tourism yearly revenue alone will reach 2 trillion baht which is the same amount of money for this transportation upgrade project loan. Now someone tell me if there is any reason for Thailand not to go ahead
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Old May 15th, 2013, 10:39 PM   #118
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Are there now a lot of Chinese tourists as well or still mostly Europeans?
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Old May 15th, 2013, 10:45 PM   #119
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Quote:
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Are there now a lot of Chinese tourists as well or still mostly Europeans?
Majority of the tourist in Thailand are now Asian. Especially for Chinese tourist who make a record last year by grow up as much as 98% (reach 2.5 million). And it expect to be a lot more this year I think. I heard that the movie 'Lost in Thailand' also help pushing it. I can't imagine what would happen when Thailand completely connect with China...
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Old May 15th, 2013, 11:01 PM   #120
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Quote:
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Majority of the tourist in Thailand are now Asian. Especially for Chinese tourist who make a record last year by grow up as much as 98% (reach 2.5 million). And it expect to be a lot more this year I think. I heard that the movie 'Lost in Thailand' also help pushing it. I can't imagine what would happen when Thailand completely connect with China...
The line Vientiane-Kunming goes to a relatively poor and remote part of China.

What could bring more Chinese tourists and businessmen might be a direct high speed railway Guangzhou-Nanning-Hanoi-Thailand. What would be a most sensible routing?
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