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Old September 19th, 2013, 09:30 AM   #141
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Old October 8th, 2013, 06:33 AM   #142
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Credit Suisse Report: doubts about HSR in Thailand

One perspective:

Quote:
High-speed rail appears unusually inappropriate for Thailand, meaning that subsidies will need to be unusually high, and the opportunity costs of misallocated resources will be unusually burdensome. Successful high speed rail lines generally require three supporting factors – multiple urban centers, high per capita incomes and potential routes within a 100-500km radius. Thailand looks weak on all counts.

Skewed urbanization patterns appear the most troubling problem. In other countries, high speed rail lines connect major urban centers. Fast trains connect Tokyo and Osaka, Beijing and Shanghai, Madrid and Barcelona, Frankfurt and Munich, and Paris and Brussels, among others. Thailand, on the other hand, has no city with more than around 600,000 people to connect to Bangkok.
Source (esp. pp. 12~13):
https://doc.research-and-analytics.c...2fcPHveBgIY%3d
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Old October 8th, 2013, 07:31 AM   #143
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I must say I didn't know that about thailand I always assumed it had other very large cities other than Bangkok.
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Old October 8th, 2013, 01:26 PM   #144
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I always assumed there would be considerable demand for travel to Phuket and Chiang Mai, at least.
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Old October 8th, 2013, 08:42 PM   #145
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High Speed train doesn't go to Phuket.

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Originally Posted by Codename B View Post
Thailand does have big cities beside Bangkok (although not as big). As Bangkok is a special governed district you always get the number of population of the whole city, while other cities only get their population number within the city center only, hence the low population number as listed in wikipedia and other websites.

Here's an example of Chiang Mai. Unlike Bangkok it is more spread out and there is a height restriction on tall buildings all over the city due to its 700 years of Lanna history.


http://www.nexus.co.th/index.php

All cities in Thailand and their sizes.

image hosted on flickr

http://www.flickr.com/photos/5685519...n/photostream/
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Old October 10th, 2013, 04:50 AM   #146
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Southern High speed rail line station from design competition has been chosen as follow.
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Originally Posted by atom View Post
Nakorn Pathom Station

Phetburi Station

Ratchaburi Station

Hua Hin Station


http://board.postjung.com/706345.html
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Old October 12th, 2013, 05:48 PM   #147
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http://www.economist.com/blogs/banya...nding-thailand

Infrastructure spending in Thailand
Fast train coming
Oct 12th 2013, 9:45 by T.J. | BANGKOK



IN THE grand concourse of Bangkok’s main train station, Hua Lamphong, the future is on display. Hulking billboards announce the impending arrival of high-speed trains and an age of international connectedness. For those who happen not to pass through the capital, a two-month road show called “Building the Thai Future 2020” is touring the provinces to keep people abreast of the government’s plans for the country’s railways and other infrastructure.

In the past 20 years, train passenger numbers have collapsed from 88m per year to 46m. The government, it would seem, is no longer willing to tolerate the slide.

The big idea is to spend 2 trillion baht ($64 billion) by 2020 towards upgrading the country’s creaking infrastructure. Another 3 trillion baht will come due as interest on the loans, accumulating over the next 50 years. It aims to fulfil a favourite dream of Thailand’s political class: To make the country the keystone of mainland South-East Asia. (WikiLeaks reveals that in 1973 Thai mandarins joined Edward Teller, an American nuclear nut, in the fantasy of using Hiroshima-sized bombs to blast a canal from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean.) The “Future 2020” plan will be the first state-led push to build anything on a truly grand scale since the crash of 1997, which ended a monumental construction boom.

This will also be a stimulus programme, so large as to trigger labour migration. The new works should create 500,000 jobs—more than there are unemployed people in Thailand, the only country in Asia that enjoys an effective rate of full employment. The timing is convenient for the government, even if there are already jobs aplenty. Elections must be held by 2015 and a pot of off-budget spending worth nearly one-fifth of the country’s GDP is a nice thing for the politicians to have handy, just when well-placed allies and voters need reassurance that their loyalty is appreciated.

Yingluck Shinawatra, the prime minister, has embarked on a mission to raise the cash. A fortnight ago parliament passed a bill that permits the government to take on off-budget debt equivalent to the combined annual economic output of Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia.

The centrepiece of the spending plan is a network of high-speed railway lines to connect the country’s four main regions with Bangkok. (Smaller dollops of cash are to be earmarked for roads and ports.) Two of the lines are part of a broader plan to link China’s Yunnan province with Singapore. One of these runs right through Thailand’s north-east, which is the political base of Ms Yingluck’s family; the other connects the capital with Thailand’s second city, Chiang Mai, which is their actual hometown. The economic rationale is to cut transport costs everywhere, bearing in mind that almost twice as many Thais live in the countryside as in the cities; Thailand is still among the least urbanised countries in Asia. Another objective of the beefed-up rail network is to keep migrant workers in the cities connected to their roots.

The Democrat Party, at the head of the opposition, agrees with the general thrust of the bill—but not with its financing. The Democrats have come up with their own 2 trillion baht plan, which would use the annual budget (rather than emergency legislation) for less-costly trains and then leave money in the pot for education, health and irrigation. Korn Chatikavanij, an opposition politician and former finance minister, says the government’s bill violates “the main tenets of fiscal prudence”. He says his party will contest it in the constitutional court before it is sent to the palace for royal endorsement.

This call for fiscal prudence is not what the opposition needs if it is to change the electoral map in its favour. As it stands, districts are heavily tilted towards the Pheu Thai party, the third incarnation of a party founded by Ms Yingluck’s exiled brother. The close relationship between the Thai state and rural Thailand—where Ms Yingluck’s family has its base—owes more to generosity than to prudence.

Largesse and the culture of easy credit are what worry the Bank of Thailand, the central bank, and many other economists too. According to Standard Chartered, a private bank, household borrowing as a share of national income now stands at 68% of Thailand’s GDP, much higher than in bigger Asian countries, such as China (20%), India (18%) and Indonesia (17%).

But the spending bill is not likely to create either a monstrous level of public debt or a household-debt problem. The public debt, at 45% of Thailand’s GDP, is still very low. And unlike most Asian countries, Thailand has a vast stock of assets—land and property—against which people can borrow. And so looking at rising debt-to-income ratios, as everyone in the debate appears to be doing, is to miss an important part of the story. Robert Townsend, an economist at MIT, runs the Townsend Thai Project, the largest and longest-running survey of households in the developing world. He reckons that average debt-to-asset ratios in rural Thailand are relatively low and have actually been falling since 2006.

The case against the infrastructure plan, which everyone agrees is needed in principle, starts not with debt but with corruption. Thailand’s government agencies are notorious for their procurement contracts’ lack of transparency. The slipshod State Railway of Thailand, which was founded by King Rama V as a non-profit entity (and anyway run in a manner that precludes the possibility turning a profit), is supposed to handle more than a trillion of the baht to be raised.

China has been looking for reassurances from Ms Yingluck’s government that Thailand’s future really can be expected to pull into the station by 2020. That is when China plans to connect Vientiane, the capital of Laos, to Thailand. In the meantime China plans to sink $6.2 billion into a passenger and freight railway that will run from Kunming to Vientiane, tunnelling through 196km of mountains to get there. A Swiss man based in Vientiane remarks that in his country a project on this scale would be called a Jahrhundertprojekt, “a project of the century”. China’s clock however, runs faster: they are giving it five years.

On October 12th Ms Yingluck and Li Keqiang (pictured facing one another, at the left), the prime minister of China, stood together at a press event, to gaze at a model train and then into the future of high-speed railway magic—on a large screen, in Bangkok.
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Old October 13th, 2013, 01:06 AM   #148
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It seems to me like there's the potential to depopulate Bangkok and decentralize the country. I, like I'm sure most people on here are, am a big fan of megacities and the efficiencies they provide, but there's something to be said for having multiple large metropolises instead of one that simply dominates everything else. Enhanced quality of life in Bangkok, decentralization of the political demography and thus reduced corruption, and greater opportunities to modernize the Thai countryside all seem like potential positive externalities to this project.
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Old October 13th, 2013, 07:18 PM   #149
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One shouldn't only think Thailand itself. Integration with rest of the region might be very important in the future, too.
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Old October 13th, 2013, 07:40 PM   #150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aquaticko View Post
It seems to me like there's the potential to depopulate Bangkok and decentralize the country. I, like I'm sure most people on here are, am a big fan of megacities and the efficiencies they provide, but there's something to be said for having multiple large metropolises instead of one that simply dominates everything else. Enhanced quality of life in Bangkok, decentralization of the political demography and thus reduced corruption, and greater opportunities to modernize the Thai countryside all seem like potential positive externalities to this project.
That's almost impossible to do absent some major historical forces. Your own country hasn't had much luck in decentralising away from London. The opposite in fact might be happening...
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Old October 14th, 2013, 04:40 AM   #151
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I'm from Manchester, NH (the U.S). I only said "potential"; not arguing that it'd be a major change if it happened at all, anyway. But any positive change is naturally positive, right?
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Old October 14th, 2013, 05:14 AM   #152
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Credit Suisse analysts don't realize that 'multiple, high-GDP per capita urban centers within 500-600kms apart' may very well be the RESULT of increased connectivity that HSR will provide. I can't imagine cities like Okayama or Shizuoka being as populated and developed if it wasn't for the Sanyo and Tokaido Shinkansen respectively.

Here we reach the age-old chicken and egg question of transport planning - does the infrastructure follow the urban development or does the urban development follow the infrastructure? I'd say it works both ways - as long as the HSR goes to some mid sized cities, those mid sized cities will see their economic values boosted and will subsequently grow in size and importance.
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Old October 14th, 2013, 12:29 PM   #153
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China shares up on Thai fast-rail

Published: 14 Oct 2013 at 14.36

China CNR Corp led gains in shares of Chinese companies that build and supply equipment for railways on speculation they will win contracts for the construction of Thailand’s high-speed train system.

China CNR, which produces passenger cars and wagons, rose by the 10% daily limit in Shanghai to 4.59 yuan, the biggest one-day gain since February 2013. CSR Corp, which makes locomotives and cars, and Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co, a maker of train axles, also surged by the daily limit. China Railway Construction Corp rose 7.4% and China Railway Group Ltd climbed 8.1% at the mid-day trading break. China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) rose 0.5%.

The shares gained after Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra told reporters on Oct 11 after meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in Bangkok that Chinese train companies had expressed interest in developing the southeastern Asian country's high-speed train system. China and Thailand signed six initial agreements during Li's visit last week covering cooperation in technology, energy, environment and culture.

Ms Yingluck's comment triggered "event-driven sentiment on the railway stocks," Wu Kan, a Shanghai-based fund manager at Dragon Life Insurance Co, which oversees US$3.3 billion, said by telephone. "Besides the fact that railway investment is an effective way to boost domestic demand, the government is now also adopting a 'going out' strategy for the railway industry to boost their competitiveness. That'll boost the sector in the medium and long term."

Thailand and China earlier signed a railway cooperation agreement including construction of high-speed lines when MsYingluck visited Beijing last year, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

The first phase of Thailand's high-speed train system includes total investment of 400 billion baht ($12.8 billion). China, Japan, South Korea and France expressed interest in bidding for contracts to build the network, according to the report.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/...igh-speed-rail

Last edited by napoleon; October 14th, 2013 at 11:46 PM.
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Old October 14th, 2013, 12:30 PM   #154
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https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?...9540032&type=3

















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Old October 14th, 2013, 08:52 PM   #155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aquaticko View Post
I'm from Manchester, NH (the U.S). I only said "potential"; not arguing that it'd be a major change if it happened at all, anyway. But any positive change is naturally positive, right?
You might consider written NH then, I've never heard of such a town and I've been in US several times.

Back to Thai HSR now... Hope it does get built and to the maximum benefit of local population.
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Old October 15th, 2013, 02:36 PM   #156
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Quote:
Originally Posted by napoleon View Post
Nakhon Ratchasima to be proposed, developed as 'Second Bangkok'

NAKHON RATCHASIMA, Oct 10 - The government will propose this northeastern city to become the second Bangkok and develop it as the centre of transport to distribute wealth to the northeast.

Transport Minister Chadchart Sittipunt presided over the opening ceremony of Building Thailand's Future in 2020 in Nakhon Ratchasima and spoke on the government's Bt2 trillion infrastructure investment project.

He said the development of the transportation system is needed in order to facilitate those travelling to Nakhon Ratchasima, known as Korat, and other provinces.

As Korat is considered the gateway to the northeastern region and a link with neighbouring countries, Mr Chadchart said the province will potentially be seen as the second capital.

The key project of which changes will clearly be made in Korat in the next seven years is the change in transportation system from road to rail such as the future high-speed train from Bangkok to Nakhon Ratchasima, taking only 90 minutes for the journey.

A budget of Bt450 billion, from the Bt2 trillion overall development funds, will be set for investments in the northeast. The budget includes building a custom house, flyover bridges and tunnels.

The government strategy is to develop 20 provinces in the northeast for further urbanisation and connectivity to neighbouring countries once the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) takes effect in 2015. (MCOT online news)

http://www.mcot.net/site/content?id=...c#.UlwwSlCnras
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Old October 15th, 2013, 09:34 PM   #157
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunfuns View Post
You might consider written NH then, I've never heard of such a town and I've been in US several times.

Back to Thai HSR now... Hope it does get built and to the maximum benefit of local population.
Typically if people ask where I'm from, I just say the Boston area; it's only about an hour's drive away.
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Old October 17th, 2013, 07:25 AM   #158
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Thailand do really need infrastructure economic to stimulate the GDP. its a good chance now.

I cant wait to have a ride of Thai HSR in short future.

I dont wish to see this project will be call off because of changing parliament.
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Old October 18th, 2013, 03:52 AM   #159
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I wish there were selling those models Especially in 1/48 scale
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Old October 18th, 2013, 12:25 PM   #160
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Quote:
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I wish there were selling those models Especially in 1/48 scale
A lot of shops through Hong Kong.
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