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Old June 17th, 2016, 11:12 AM   #2981
gooner86
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Just because a city has the most supertalls doesn't make it the best. The visual feel, density, architecture, etc., plays a bigger role.

Which is why Dubai won't make it into the top 5 for me, as the skyline is scattered around in pockets- compared to sprawling metropolises like Hong Kong, Shenzen, Shanghai where almost wherever you look there are tall buildings and huge, dense skylines.
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Old June 17th, 2016, 03:29 PM   #2982
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gooner86 View Post
Which is why Dubai won't make it into the top 5 for me, as the skyline is scattered around in pockets- compared to sprawling metropolises like Hong Kong, Shenzen, Shanghai where almost wherever you look there are tall buildings and huge, dense skylines.
I am glad to see your dislike for Dubai is not driven by other factors that is taking over some members in the forum.

Dubai is now THE major sprawling metropolis worldwide and in 30 years will trump all other cities. Supertall density in Dubai is increasing like 200m buildings are doing in any other major city and given the pace that it is growing will look over the top futuristic in the near future. There is no place like Dubai. I mean its barely 10 years old and it is now considered one of the major if not the major city in terms of skyline.
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Old June 17th, 2016, 07:36 PM   #2983
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I think Singapore and Panama City will get bounced. Skylines like Mexico City, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Istanbul, Moscow, and London might eventually make a top 20 but will need more time.
what about San Francisco?

I just recently saw a documentary (HBO, San Francisco 2.0) on how the skyline is being changed by the influx of "techies" of Silicon Valley into the city.
Although, it is highly debatable if it is a desirable change or not.. Flower power which created the city are being "evicted"..

I was really surprised on the ongoing transformation of the city! It is becoming one of the richest cities in the world!
Although, critics are saying, the city is losing its soul and culture, which made it famous in the first place...


It is interesting how economies have influenced greatly on a city's development.
In the case of Manila, it is becoming a 24 hour city mainly because of BPOs and Call Centers catering for the west. Business Disctricts are becoming livelier even on graveyard/midnight shifts.
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Old June 17th, 2016, 10:07 PM   #2984
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some constructions in Manila

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Old June 17th, 2016, 11:08 PM   #2985
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I wonder how much more Dubai will grow population wise? It's not even bigger than Denver at this point, but it's skyline is incredible! I don't see it ever having the population of cities like New York, and Shanghai though.
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Old June 17th, 2016, 11:17 PM   #2986
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I wonder how much more Dubai will grow population wise? It's not even bigger than Denver at this point, but it's skyline is incredible! I don't see it ever having the population of cities like New York, and Shanghai though.
yep.. that's a really good question.

I am a bit surprised that vacancy rate in Dubai isn't that too bad anymore(in cooling stage already, although worse compared to other cities)... at least compared to few years ago, with 45% office vacancy rate.
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Old June 17th, 2016, 11:37 PM   #2987
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Don't lots of people in East Africa, the Middle East, and Indian subcontinent view Dubai with high regard, an oasis of prosperity, a regional powerhouse, etc.? Dubai's population is small relative to most big global cities, but it could continue growing rapidly due to how it's perceived by a large swath of the world's population. It's much wealthier than any world city in that region so should remain a big magnet for investment and people.

I wouldn't be shocked to see the population start to flat line, but I wouldn't be surprised to see in mushroom up to 15 million either.

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Originally Posted by gooner86 View Post
Just because a city has the most supertalls doesn't make it the best. The visual feel, density, architecture, etc., plays a bigger role.

Which is why Dubai won't make it into the top 5 for me, as the skyline is scattered around in pockets- compared to sprawling metropolises like Hong Kong, Shenzen, Shanghai where almost wherever you look there are tall buildings and huge, dense skylines.
Agree. There are lots of factors to consider, scale being one of them.

A number of skylines need time to gel, build more density, and infill. Dubai and KL jump to mind but neither is too far off now. KL is further a long than Dubai but think they'll both will have plugged those issues by 2025.

I've heavily discounted Dubai in the past due to the scattered nature of its skyline, architecture, layout, layering, etc. but it's finally coming together imo. When it does, it's going to zoom up my list.
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Old June 17th, 2016, 11:38 PM   #2988
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I wonder how much more Dubai will grow population wise? It's not even bigger than Denver at this point, but it's skyline is incredible! I don't see it ever having the population of cities like New York, and Shanghai though.
I wonder if the construction boom in Dubai is sustainable in the long term after the era of oil.

According to List of cities by GDP on Wikipedia, the Gross Domestic Product of Dubai is only $82.9 billion. Meanwhile, Denver GDP is $169.7 billion, two times bigger than Dubai GDP. Even Milwaukee has bigger GDP than Dubai with $97 billion.

New York City can afford and sustain the demand of supertalls with the GDP of $1.5 trillion and a diversified economy, but what about Dubai in the long term after the era of oil? I hope Dubai supertalls and megatalls are not going to be the ghost towers.

I guess the supply of cheap labor from poor Asian countries makes it feasible to build and sustain the demand of so many supertalls and megatalls in Dubai?

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Old June 17th, 2016, 11:42 PM   #2989
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Agree. There are lots of factors to consider, scale being one of them.

A number of skylines need time to gel, build more density, and infill. Dubai and KL jump to mind but neither is too far off now. KL is further a long than Dubai but think they'll both will have plugged those issues by 2025.

I've heavily discounted Dubai in the past due to the scattered nature of its skyline, architecture, layout, layering, etc. but it's finally coming together imo. When it does, it's going to zoom up my list.
If only Manila could build a tall iconic one.. it will really make a great impact.
the rest of the recipe is already there.. I bet it will zoom up in anyone's list.
sorry biased here

Makati district (only), Manila

old pic
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Old June 17th, 2016, 11:59 PM   #2990
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up to now.. still no Super tall proposals.. (could be the height limit)
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Old June 17th, 2016, 11:59 PM   #2991
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what about San Francisco?

I just recently saw a documentary (HBO, San Francisco 2.0) on how the skyline is being changed by the influx of "techies" of Silicon Valley into the city.
There's a lot of tech gravitating to SF from SJ, SF generated tech, and the wealth creation that comes along with that. Zoning makes building tall difficult in many areas and San Francisco is already very expensive. Some firms and people are moving to other cities like Seattle to conduct business and/or escape the high cost of living.

The San Francisco skyline should grow substantially but there are a number of mitigating factors. There's a case to be made for including San Francisco, but I don't think it will move into that top tier of ~20 skylines.

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It is interesting how economies have influenced greatly on a city's development.

In the case of Manila, it is becoming a 24 hour city mainly because of BPOs and Call Centers catering for the west. Business Disctricts are becoming livelier even on graveyard/midnight shifts.
Economic opportunity feeds growth. Manila is very early on in its growth but benefits from being far wealthier than the rest of the Philippines. In Canada, Toronto benefits from being the nation's principal city but it's far from being the wealthiest. Having lots of smaller, but wealthier cities, helps spread development and growth around the country.

We also benefit from being geographically immense. We need strong regional cities in addition to Toronto and the capital (Ottawa). Vancouver, Montreal, Winnipeg, and Halifax are all examples of that.

I'm a Torontonian, but think the stronger growth of Edmonton, Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, etc. is healthy for the country. In the last 2 years they've been hammered but hoping they'll see a return to rapid growth soon. Edmonton is one of those 'upstarts' in the skyline department. It's still tiny but set to triple in size.
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Old June 18th, 2016, 12:38 AM   #2992
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I wonder if the construction boom in Dubai is sustainable in the long term after the era of oil.

According to List of cities by GDP on Wikipedia, the Gross Domestic Product of Dubai is only $82.9 billion. Meanwhile, Denver GDP is $169.7 billion, two times bigger than Dubai GDP. Even Milwaukee has bigger GDP than Dubai with $97 billion.

New York City can afford and sustain the demand of supertalls with the GDP of $1.5 trillion and a diversified economy, but what about Dubai in the long term after the era of oil? I hope Dubai supertalls and megatalls are not going to be the ghost towers.

I guess the supply of cheap labors from poor Asian countries make it feasible to build and sustain the demand of so many supertalls and megatalls in Dubai?
I was under the impression that the Dubai economy has moved well beyond its dependence on oil. If you look at Dubai today, very little of its GDP and growth is fueled by petroleum. It's become a regional centre for everything imaginable. They have a large well developed service sector with strong positions in trade, finance, distribution, construction, and tourism.

I'd also be careful when comparing GDP. For US cities, is it the city GDP, MSA GDP, or CSA GDP? I'm also not sure how Dubai pays its migrant worker labour force. Are they included? I imagine they work for far less than the Emirati (who are generally very well off).
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Old June 18th, 2016, 12:55 AM   #2993
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If only Manila could build a tall iconic one.. it will really make a great impact.
the rest of the recipe is already there.. I bet it will zoom up in anyone's list.
sorry biased here
No, you're quite right imo. Manila has a huge backdrop of high rises, but only a few of them stand out. It's amazing how 1-2 buildings can completely change an area aesthetically. It's just a matter of time before Manila follows in the footsteps of KL and builds some show pieces.

Manila's skyline is quantitatively larger than Toronto's but most people rank Manila's skyline far behind. It goes to show that other factors besides sheer scale factor in to people's overall impressions.

I agree than Manila will zoom up people's lists when it starts building its CN Tower, Petronas, or Canton Tower. You'll likely have to build 4-5 show piece buildings, as will we. In Toronto One Yonge, the Mirvish-Gehry twins, and The One are 3 proposals that stand out above the 100s of other proposals coming down the pipe. We'll need all 4 of those buildings just to 'tread water' in the iconic building department.

The One super imposed on the Toronto skyline: tallest on left (It's since been cut down to 304m from 340m)


The One in context to other Yorkville area proposals
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Old June 18th, 2016, 01:27 AM   #2994
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One Yonge cluster proposal: city's new tallest (320m)





The Mirvish-Gehry twins (304m and 274m)
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Old June 18th, 2016, 04:32 AM   #2995
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KL skyline with PNB118 Merdeka Tower
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Old June 18th, 2016, 05:34 AM   #2996
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KL's rise is the most impressive outside China imo. Even including China, perhaps only Shenzhen is developing at a faster clip.
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Old June 18th, 2016, 05:37 AM   #2997
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I was under the impression that the Dubai economy has moved well beyond its dependence on oil. If you look at Dubai today, very little of its GDP and growth is fueled by petroleum. It's become a regional centre for everything imaginable. They have a large well developed service sector with strong positions in trade, finance, distribution, construction, and tourism.

I'd also be careful when comparing GDP. For US cities, is it the city GDP, MSA GDP, or CSA GDP? I'm also not sure how Dubai pays its migrant worker labour force. Are they included? I imagine they work for far less than the Emirati (who are generally very well off).
I think the government or monarchy is sponsoring most of the development growth so that it will become a tourist hotspot once the oil runs out.
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Old June 18th, 2016, 05:49 AM   #2998
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I think the government or monarchy is sponsoring most of the development growth so that it will become a tourist hotspot once the oil runs out.
Yep, that's my sense of it too. They started diversifying away from oil decades ago and look how far they've come. Their airport is already the 3rd busiest in the world behind Atlanta and Beijing. It's really turning into that region's New York, for lack of a better word.

I'm not arguing that the 2 cities are comparable, but Dubai is moving in that direction in every way conceivable. It's just going to take a few decades for it to reach its potential.
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Old June 20th, 2016, 01:39 AM   #2999
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No, you're quite right imo. Manila has a huge backdrop of high rises, but only a few of them stand out. It's amazing how 1-2 buildings can completely change an area aesthetically. It's just a matter of time before Manila follows in the footsteps of KL and builds some show pieces.

Manila's skyline is quantitatively larger than Toronto's but most people rank Manila's skyline far behind. It goes to show that other factors besides sheer scale factor in to people's overall impressions.

I agree than Manila will zoom up people's lists when it starts building its CN Tower, Petronas, or Canton Tower. You'll likely have to build 4-5 show piece buildings, as will we. In Toronto One Yonge, the Mirvish-Gehry twins, and The One are 3 proposals that stand out above the 100s of other proposals coming down the pipe. We'll need all 4 of those buildings just to 'tread water' in the iconic building department.

The One super imposed on the Toronto skyline: tallest on left (It's since been cut down to 304m from 340m)


The One in context to other Yorkville area proposals
It's difficult for a city like Toronto to build an iconic globally famous tower, because it's been a highrise city for so long, that it's hard for anything to stand out or make waves.
In London, the gherkin and shard became so famous because they were something relatively new, and they stood out a lot more.
If the gherkin was built in london today, it wouldn't have the same impact or become as famous.
For a city like Toronto, that is full of towers and has been for decades, only a really tall or incredibly unique tower would get a place in the publics consciousness, a media friendly nickname always helps too
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Old June 20th, 2016, 02:49 AM   #3000
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It's difficult for a city like Toronto to build an iconic globally famous tower, because it's been a highrise city for so long, that it's hard for anything to stand out or make waves.
In London, the gherkin and shard became so famous because they were something relatively new, and they stood out a lot more.
If the gherkin was built in london today, it wouldn't have the same impact or become as famous.
For a city like Toronto, that is full of towers and has been for decades, only a really tall or incredibly unique tower would get a place in the publics consciousness, a media friendly nickname always helps too
It is difficult. Skyscrapers aren't a novelty here and the show pieces we've built over the decades are lost in a sea of buildings. The Royal York, Commerce Court North, TD Centre, Scotia Plaza were all marvels when they were built. Today, you either can't see them in the skyline and/or they go under appreciated.

Culturally we have an appreciation for skyscrapers but we're quite jaded at the same time. If it's under 200m no one bats an eye. Something has to be absolutely spectacular or significantly taller to turn people's heads. Even then, a lot of people just shrug. The only thing that stands out today is the CN Tower. It's since been surpassed in height by structures/buildings in Asia but is still quite something. It stops both tourists and locals in their tracks. I've been here for 15 years and it still manages to impress me.

I agree about the Gherkin. It's a quality building but owes its fame to where and when it was built. If it had gone up in New York, few would have paid any attention to it.
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