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Old November 13th, 2013, 08:35 AM   #21
ZZ-II
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Quote:
Originally Posted by desertpunk View Post
This makes Chicago's 5th supertall proposal, including three 300m+ towers at the Old Post Office redevelopment, 625 W. Monroe, and now 430 N. Michigan.
And the 7th completed if build before the other proposals
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Old November 13th, 2013, 02:05 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by desertpunk View Post
This makes Chicago's 5th supertall proposal, including three 300m+ towers at the Old Post Office redevelopment, 625 W. Monroe, and now 430 N. Michigan.
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is the Old Post Office Development to be built? I thought it was in some kind of construction limbo.
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Old November 13th, 2013, 03:19 PM   #23
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Hard to tell, there has been no news since July. On the other hand, this is not uncommon. Buildings like Manhattan West, 1 Vanderbilt or Tower Verre had few news spread over a very long time period as well, so I just don't know
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Old November 13th, 2013, 03:31 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SomeKindOfBug View Post
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is the Old Post Office Development to be built? I thought it was in some kind of construction limbo.
OPOD is proposed by a minor fraud British developer who didn't finished most of the projects he started, never were involved in any skyscraper project or in any project at all in america. Make a conclusion yourself
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Old November 13th, 2013, 06:16 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by desertpunk

This makes Chicago's 5th supertall proposal, including three 300m+ towers at the Old Post Office redevelopment, 625 W. Monroe, and now 430 N. Michigan.
Perhaps...but not really. There have always been only slim chances at best that the OPOD would be built, and as for the other two, I have never heard of them. Do they have assured supertall heights? Finalized designs, even?
This seems to be a proposal that is neither a pipe dream, nor particularly ambiguous.
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Old November 13th, 2013, 10:29 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Blue Flame View Post
Perhaps...but not really. There have always been only slim chances at best that the OPOD would be built, and as for the other two, I have never heard of them. Do they have assured supertall heights? Finalized designs, even?
This seems to be a proposal that is neither a pipe dream, nor particularly ambiguous.
The likelihood of all of them getting built is fairly low but one or more may actually go up. The Old Post Office is a mainly residential development that's being expedited by the city (in what the developer had said would be many years of approval process), which wants the historic building restored and on the tax rolls. The 2,000 ft. office component will either be the last phase of the project or may be scrapped for a residential tower or scrapped altogether. 625 W.Madison is more speculative and may not reach the proposed 75 floors, depending on whether Fifield, a respected developer, can lease that much office space. This N.A.R. proposal has yet to be fleshed out so we don't even know what "deep-pocketed" developer is the muscle behind the ambitious development.

Much deeper in the realm of speculation is the Chicago Spire site which is still in the courts. Related Midwest may opt to build a very tall tower there.

Just today:

Chicago Spire developer hopes to revive project

Quote:
By: Alby Gallun November 13, 2013

The bankruptcy battle over the failed Chicago Spire is moving from Delaware to Chicago under an agreement that also gives the project's developer until mid-March to come up with a plan to pay off its creditors.

Garrett Kelleher, the Irish developer who planned to build the 2,000-foot-tall condominium tower, is feeling confident he can meet that deadline and restart the project, said his lawyer, Thomas Murphy. Mr. Kelleher is in discussions with deep-pocketed investors interested in providing financing, he said. “Garrett Kelleher is very committed to the Chicago Spire,” Mr. Murphy said. “We're coming out of the perfect storm, and Garrett thinks this is the perfect product.”

The Chicago Spire would have been the tallest building in the Western Hemisphere, eclipsing even the New World Trade Center in New York, which won that title yesterday.

Yet the fate of the development site at Lake Shore Drive and the Chicago River will be decided in Bankruptcy Court. Related Cos. acquired about $80 million in delinquent debt on the property over the summer, and then filed an involuntary Chapter 11 petition last month in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Del. Before that, Mr. Kelleher had been wrangling for about three years with creditors that wanted to foreclose on the property.

Judge Kevin Carey on Nov. 8 approved a deal between a Kelleher partnership and Related to move the Chapter 11 case to Chicago from Wilmington. Related and other creditors had objected to the move, calling it delaying tactic, but dropped their opposition as part of a larger agreement that requires the Kelleher partnership to file a bankruptcy reorganization plan by March 14.

A Related executive declined to comment, and a Related lawyer did not return a call.

[...]
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Old November 13th, 2013, 10:46 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Vito Corleone View Post
Put a big-ass spire on top of this puppy and make it 1777 ft.! hehe...
This!!
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Old November 13th, 2013, 11:53 PM   #28
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I'll put my entirely subjective speculative odds as following in order of likelihood ...........

1.) NAR Tower. 75% - I have thought for years this is perhaps THE prime untaken spot in all of Chicago including unbuilt spots along the river. The potential possibilities to be right on Michigan and be the owners of a HUGE hemmed in pedestrian plaza near the river and Wrigley to create a very unique and cool urban space are readily easy to see to anyone who has seen the location.

2.) OPO. - 50% (of a downsized version). I have a hard time believing that anything like what is being proposed will take shape but I do believe the location especially in terms of transit and space just serve themselves up perfectly for something really BIG even if downsized from the ambitious plans of today. It has a GREAT visual location looking north up the river canyon. However I only see something really big happen IF the city chooses the site or an adjoining site to build its city casino. The license and then the location are still much up in the air for a casino but if/when it happens (which could happen in the next 1-2 years) I wouldn't be surprised at all if this location is chosen. Its on a rather short list of obvious choices.

3. ) 625 W. Monroe. - (20%) Least likely IMO. I am skeptical this one really has much of a chance. The location isn't bad from a transit perspective but there is nothing really that makes it stand out. It doesn't have a river location. It isn't on a hot or in demand block especially. It would have to cater 100% to commercial business which I think is the harder sell in Chicago real estate compared to hotel/apartment rentals. Also it has tough competition from other promising commercial office projects (River Point, Wolf Point, 150 N.Riverside etc.)

Then we still have Wolf Point and the Chicago Spire site that are both very much in the news. While neither may end up being a supertall (though they potentially could) they will both be close in all probability and I think will eventually in the next five years themselves have a good if not very good shot of being built on.
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Old November 14th, 2013, 04:22 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by desertpunk View Post
The likelihood of all of them getting built is fairly low but one or more may actually go up. The Old Post Office is a mainly residential development that's being expedited by the city (in what the developer had said would be many years of approval process), which wants the historic building restored and on the tax rolls. The 2,000 ft. office component will either be the last phase of the project or may be scrapped for a residential tower or scrapped altogether. 625 W.Madison is more speculative and may not reach the proposed 75 floors, depending on whether Fifield, a respected developer, can lease that much office space. This N.A.R. proposal has yet to be fleshed out so we don't even know what "deep-pocketed" developer is the muscle behind the ambitious development.

Much deeper in the realm of speculation is the Chicago Spire site which is still in the courts. Related Midwest may opt to build a very tall tower there.

Just today:

Chicago Spire developer hopes to revive project

I really wouldn't be surprised if the Chicago Spire came back, wasn't there already foundations done etc? What are the chances of it coming back? like 25%?
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Old November 14th, 2013, 08:40 AM   #30
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That would be one of the best news ever if the CS would be back alive!
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Old November 14th, 2013, 08:46 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by N.Y.C.H View Post
I really wouldn't be surprised if the Chicago Spire came back, wasn't there already foundations done etc? What are the chances of it coming back? like 25%?
More like 5%!

The condo market in Chicago is still recovering and the kinds of prices they need to pay for Calatrava's notorious cost overruns would be a B-I-G stretch for the Chicago market in the best of times.
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Old November 14th, 2013, 12:59 PM   #32
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In Chicago they sure like to announce supertalls, sometimes even build the foundations or even the first 20 or so floors. I'll believe this one once it's topped out.
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Old November 14th, 2013, 02:00 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZZ-II View Post
Finally a new supertall proposal for Chicago. There wasn't much going on since Waterview and Spire.
I agree. With 93 floors this one might hit 400 meter?
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Old November 14th, 2013, 02:00 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by desertpunk View Post
More like 5%!

The condo market in Chicago is still recovering and the kinds of prices they need to pay for Calatrava's notorious cost overruns would be a B-I-G stretch for the Chicago market in the best of times.
Well how long would it take to build the Spire? If it was started this very afternoon? Years, right? Maybe like two or three.

So you look at where the market was three years ago. And you look at where it is today. And you project those increases forwards to when the proposed tower might be finished, and you work out if it is feasible.

You don't want to be the guy who is just starting to build a tower as the market booms, you want to be the guy who has one already finished.

Historically, large construction projects always start to happen during the recovery, not after it.

The Spire won't be built for other reasons, but something will. The US, UK, Western Europe, these are places coming out of financial ruin and they're all proposing new supertalls nearly every day. How many is NYC up to now? Seven or eight? And London has literally hundreds of billions of pounds of new developments going up just this year alone.

If Chicago is the second city, it makes perfect sense that this saturation of new projects will spread to them first, after NYC. This NAR Tower is the first of what will be many in the coming months and years.
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Old November 14th, 2013, 03:39 PM   #35
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^condo market (at least in Toronto) is based on pre-construction sales. you simply don't get financing for 2000ft condo buildings without some sort of pre-sales, which isn't viable today.
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Old November 14th, 2013, 06:44 PM   #36
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Sounds like an awesome development! Can't wait to see some renders of it.
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Old November 14th, 2013, 06:56 PM   #37
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Congrats to Chicago, an amazing amazing city!! It needs a new supertall. I for one will be the first to say the Sears Tower did not impress me much. Probably 4th in "impressiveness" behind Trump, JHC and Aon
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Old November 14th, 2013, 08:52 PM   #38
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Quote:
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I agree. With 93 floors this one might hit 400 meter?
very difficult up to impossible to say, so i can't even guess anything. it's possible it will be just arround 350m tall but it also could reach well over 400m. even beating sears tower is theoretical possible, but very unlikely. Nevertheless, 400m would be fantastic .

lets see what the using of the tower will be.
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Old November 14th, 2013, 09:02 PM   #39
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I agree, it is impossible to say now how tall the building will be. My personal bet is 450 meters because there are many buildings in NYC which are tall, but have relatively few floors, both office and residential
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Old November 14th, 2013, 10:53 PM   #40
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Given the amount of floors, I would say this could be similar in height to 432 Park (89 floors)
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