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Old November 7th, 2014, 04:40 PM   #601
Spam King
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I knew this would happen...

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I don't think this will ever get beyond being a proposal.
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Originally Posted by elekto View Post
Is not a proposal, it was a proposal several years ago, actually is an Executive Project with all feasibility studies done and approved, with a budget for the next 4 years and in the phase of tendering.

The proposals are the ones the consortiums are going to do next months.

Yes, the executive projects of every aspect are already done and included in the tendering for the consortiums to conduct them.

Construction firms in Mexico are 100% capable of the civil works, what Mexico does not have is the manufacturing capability, nor the technology to implement the high speed railway systems and the rolling stock, nor the experience, so that is why the international tendering.

Why in a single comprehensive tendering? only because international firms requested this way, so the coordination with construction firms can be flexible and efficient.
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Obviously you had to be the "spam king"
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Old November 7th, 2014, 04:52 PM   #602
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I heard that the contract award has been cancelled... Is it true ?
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Old November 7th, 2014, 05:10 PM   #603
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loool they award a project yesterday and cancelled it just 2 days after? lool

This must be a joke. It will better for them to just continue living with their current railway system, instead of making a joke out of themselves on this/laughing stock for the world.

I have been following this news for a while now, only for it to finish in a tragedy. Bombardier, Alstom and the likes even if they were to tender/participate in this project,t heir prices will be crazyyy, which im not sure the authorities in mexico will agree with this, especially after they rejected a cheaper deal. So if anything they set a trap for themselves, which means i dont see how this project will ever be carried out this coming years. Maybe in 4 or 5 years from now, when everyone has forgotten about the current fiasco.

Seems Mexico wont have the first high speed railway in the Americas afterall.
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Old November 7th, 2014, 05:49 PM   #604
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New tender to be open late November. It will be open for six months.
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Old November 7th, 2014, 06:43 PM   #605
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President Enrique Pena Nieto will have to be answering to the Chinese on his state visit next week.
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Old November 7th, 2014, 07:10 PM   #606
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New tender to be open late November. It will be open for six months.
In any case will be more expensive, add 6 more months of inflation, 6 more months of peso devaluation, 6 more months of political polarization (there will be mid term elections in Mexico next July) and if interest rates rise in the US prior to the submission of bids, forget about any financing.

My mexican fellows are tooooooo naive and ignorant about all this, they focus only in the shape and model of the train.

there wont be a cheaper bid than the former one, even if the chinese participate again.

they will have "more" transparency and "more" competition, but they won't have HSR.

unless they agree on pay more.



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Maybe is not the best for Mexico, but is the best for transparency.

Secretary Ruiz Esparza explains this decision. (audio in spanish)

Not maybe, IS the worse for Mexico.

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Old November 7th, 2014, 07:16 PM   #607
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I wonder how all this will affect Chinese/Mexican relations that they were trying to strengthen.
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Old November 7th, 2014, 07:20 PM   #608
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I wonder how all this will affect Chinese/Mexican relations that they were trying to strengthen.
I dont know for what Peña is going to China now, to request investment?

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Old November 7th, 2014, 07:26 PM   #609
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I don't have any inside knowledge about Mexican politics or corruption, but I do have some from my own native land. When I heard how cheap the project is supposed to be (I expected about the same price without rolling stock) I was wondering if this is not the old bite and switch trick used from time to time in infrastructure projects at home. The basic idea is to offer very low prices to win the project, often via collusion with government officials who would overlook any deficiencies in the proposal, then start construction and "discover" various "unforeseeable" issues which inevitably make the project more expensive. Since the construction is already half way finished later government even if not corrupt has little other option than paying up.

Maybe that's why Alstom, CAF, Siemens etc. didn't compete because they are smarter than us here and were not interested in playing such a game. They have a reputation to preserve for future projects elsewhere.

Of course all this is speculation. It could also be that President is incompetent and/or payed off by some other lobby.
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Old November 7th, 2014, 07:30 PM   #610
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the problem are the "maybes", there was hundreds of professionals working on this, with huge feasibility studies only to throwing it all away because of the "maybes".

A president that take such a decision because of the "maybes" is by definition incompetent.
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Old November 7th, 2014, 07:43 PM   #611
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You and me don't have enough inside information to judge that accurately.
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Old November 7th, 2014, 08:14 PM   #612
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These type of big ticket project always involve some (or a lot) of politics. So, weird stuff happens but this is yet another level. At least, they could have waited some time following the announcement. LOL Like Turkey is doing with Chinese FD2000
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Old November 7th, 2014, 08:26 PM   #613
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It's true that it is a failed chance, it's true that the time is important and 6 months are very long but the most important thing is first the infrastructure, after come trains. Now optimism, everytime when important and big buildings are built there are always problems. So, I don't want to say that this is normal, but only a phase of the construction of the first high speed rail in America.

________


Who won the tender for the CONSTRUCTION of the two lines?
Will work start this year like forecasts?
When will the construction end? 2016?
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Old November 7th, 2014, 11:42 PM   #614
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Quote:
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You and me don't have enough inside information to judge that accurately.
China steel and loans alone will beat any competitors ! There is just one catch though - no cash transaction .
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Old November 8th, 2014, 01:51 AM   #615
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This looks grim. Sadly, it seems to be going the way of many major Latam infrastructure projects. Not unlike the SP-RJ HSR (which made a huge economic sense) or Venezuela´s nascent rail system (which is nascent for like a decade now and has 45 km ready ).
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Old November 8th, 2014, 02:51 AM   #616
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Oke, I get it, it's Mexico's equivalent to April fools day, haha..

...


Right?!#@!
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Old November 8th, 2014, 03:57 AM   #617
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Huh, so that was why all the other bidders left the bidding.

If a more transparent process appears, they may well come back with serious offers.
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Old November 8th, 2014, 05:47 AM   #618
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Some people have doubts because the price is ridiculously low and the project is ridiculously fast. If they spend 10 minutes to study the history of HSR in China, they will notice the price and construction time is totally reasonable.

World Bank had a research report on this matter, and the conclusion is that average cost of constructing one mile of HSR in China is about 30% lower than in other countries. Without this, China could have by no means completed more than 10,000 km high speed rail track in 5 years.

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pre...ther-countries

Shanghai-Beijing HSR is 1318km long and its construction took about 3 years. The total cost is $38b. China has constructed a HSR net that exceeds 10,000km since then, and the average cost has dropped. According to the world bank report, average cost of 350kmph HSR track is $0.216b/km. Of course, this is only an average number. The cost differs case by case.

That said, I personally believe the deal that President Nieto just cancelled to avoid "any doubts about the legitimacy and transparency" is the best deal he ever gets. Nieto showed courage to give China a slap in the face, and also managed to destroy the credibility of Mexico government in front the world. If a deal can be revoked so easily since there is "doubts", then maybe this is not a serious deal after all. China is even financing 85% of this project. If CRC is not stupid, they should also redo the risk analysis and add the government's attitude as an additional risk. It will be interesting to see if CRC bids again, and how much more President Nieto is willing to pay to achieve so-called "legitimacy and transparency".
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Old November 8th, 2014, 06:07 AM   #619
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To my understanding (do not quote me) is that the issue for why this project was pulledback was due to Mexican companies affiliated. There was no question on the Chinese side at all and everyone was aware of the good deal. So in the next round there will be other Mexican companies without special privileges.

That should also allow other non-chinese companies to summit their bids and honestly there's no excuse of time this time around. I am definitely not throwing the towel in yet and believe this important project will be moving forward as planned.
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Old November 8th, 2014, 06:13 AM   #620
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Quote:
Shanghai-Beijing HSR is 1318km long and its construction took about 3 years. The total cost is $38b. China has constructed a HSR net that exceeds 10,000km since then, and the average cost has dropped. According to the world bank report, average cost of 350kmph HSR track is $0.216b/km. Of course, this is only an average number. The cost differs case by case.
One serious flaw:

Mexico is not China.
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