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Old July 26th, 2014, 09:35 PM   #1
z0rg
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SHENZHEN | Nantou Pass Project | 300m | 984ft | Pro

http://xajdb.baoan.gov.cn/xxgk_11984...02_530167.html

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More than 300 supertall projects on going in China.

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Old July 26th, 2014, 10:06 PM   #2
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looks like a bit of a height cheater with such a big crown, but will be a nice filler building for shenzhen :P hope for other angles and better quality renders before judging the design, might be concept anyways.
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Old July 26th, 2014, 10:13 PM   #3
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The roof height is just 272m according to unsourcedcity (gaoloumi). I told you, 100 supertalls for Shenzhen within 2025 is more than feasible (well, maybe including those still u/c by the date)
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Old July 26th, 2014, 10:49 PM   #4
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well, i do hope you can prove me wrong and we really get 100 by 2025, but still that is a really big number, considering that is more than 9 supertalls finishing in average every year and we already know that will not happen for the next few years, so after that there have to be even more to get that average up. But anything is possible
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Old July 27th, 2014, 05:13 AM   #5
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I would say probably 100 proposed, u/c, top out, and built by 2025, maybe 25-30 built by 2025?
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Old July 27th, 2014, 11:12 AM   #6
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Lol, we have 88~ now including proposals, and many others coming (we just have no sources yet)

Being conservative we'll have no less than 50 completed supertalls within 2025 for Shenzhen. But if the trend of the last 3 years goes on, we should reach 100 supertalls including t/o and u/c for sure.

But as I always say, Shenzhen's ultimate skyscraper boom will come once they run out of land as they'll need skyscraper residentials by hundreds.
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Old July 27th, 2014, 12:59 PM   #7
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Possible then like 500 hundred in total for shenzhen by 2025, but once again, the land.
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Old July 27th, 2014, 02:04 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KillerZavatar View Post
looks like a bit of a height cheater with such a big crown, but will be a nice filler building for shenzhen :P hope for other angles and better quality renders before judging the design, might be concept anyways.
crowns are not ehight cheaters IMO. Antenna's are.
This crown is an integral part of the design.
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Old July 27th, 2014, 06:28 PM   #9
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Quote:
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as they'll need skyscraper residentials by hundreds.
Right now in Shenzhen and not only there are tens if not hundreds of new residential complexes each with 500-2000 apartments partially occupied (some of them much less than 50%) as well as many office buildings in the same situation. Who will occupy all these and create demand for newly built buildings ?
SEG plaza, currently the tallest building in Huaqianbei area, one of the most crowded in the city, probably the second after DongMen, has several unoccupied floors and not even decorated. I've been there not too long ago and saw with my eyes.
If we go just 40-50Km towards east, in Huizou, we find a ghost town, where thousands of building sit empty and the occupancy rate is below 5-10%. All this while the rent price for a decent flat 60-70sqm in Shenzhen cost ~ 1000$, more than many normal families can afford.
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Old July 27th, 2014, 09:18 PM   #10
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Well, if this is the case then we really could start to worry about a real estate bubble in Shenzhen. If the bubble is bursting we could witness a aprupt end of the boom with tens of proposals disapearing in one month and many on holds....

But the empty apartments could have another cause, maybe they are just situated in an undeveloped area, like the area behind Qianhai, where now nobody want to live but where the demand for residental buildings will rise later. On the other hand this isn't explaining the empty SEG-Plaza, maybe it is just a building with low qualitiy offices? Or some real estate companies make the prices so high, that not all space will get rented, but the few rented squarefeets are so expensive that they make more money with an half empty building then with a fully occupied but cheap to rent building. The same strategy could be used with the just 50% occupied residental buildings, as you said, 1000$ per square meter. Does anyone have some facts about how many percent of available space is rented in Shenzhen, and how expensive the office space is? Let's hope the best

Last edited by TowerVerre:); July 27th, 2014 at 09:29 PM.
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Old July 27th, 2014, 09:23 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TowerVerre:) View Post
Well, if this is the case then we really could start to worry about a real estate bubble in Shenzhen. If the bubble is bursting we could witness a aprupt end of the boom with tens of proposals disapearing in one month and many on holds....

But the empty apartments could have another cause, maybe they are just situated in an undeveloped area, like the area behind Qianhai, where now nobody want to live but where the demand for residental buildings will rise later. On the other hand this isn't explaining the empty SEG-Plaza, maybe it is just a building with low qualitiy offices? I don't really know... Let's hope the best
SEG Plaza could be an exception, not all the tall buildings in a city get 0% vacancy rate

The traffic of Shenzhen shows how busy and crowded the city is

Here's a recent video of Shenzhen shot by a tourist

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Il0T...nTZZWllRIjrzXw
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Old July 27th, 2014, 10:11 PM   #12
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Don't feed the troll.
Shenzhen's population is skyrocketing and vast areas all around the city are under redevelopment. It's over 15 million now, more than doubled since 2000. No further arguments needed, they need countless residential towers.
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Old July 28th, 2014, 02:54 AM   #13
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Just like many other chinese cities.
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Old July 28th, 2014, 07:26 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TowerVerre:) View Post
Well, if this is the case then we really could start to worry about a real estate bubble in Shenzhen. If the bubble is bursting we could witness a aprupt end of the boom with tens of proposals disapearing in one month and many on holds....

But the empty apartments could have another cause, maybe they are just situated in an undeveloped area, like the area behind Qianhai, where now nobody want to live but where the demand for residental buildings will rise later. On the other hand this isn't explaining the empty SEG-Plaza, maybe it is just a building with low qualitiy offices? Or some real estate companies make the prices so high, that not all space will get rented, but the few rented squarefeets are so expensive that they make more money with an half empty building then with a fully occupied but cheap to rent building. The same strategy could be used with the just 50% occupied residental buildings, as you said, 1000$ per square meter. Does anyone have some facts about how many percent of available space is rented in Shenzhen, and how expensive the office space is? Let's hope the best
This will most likely happen within 5 years, As a lot of the current supertalls get finished, there might be a flood in the market of units. A lot of Chinese cities have cooled down,
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Old July 28th, 2014, 09:08 PM   #15
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I made a bit research yesterday and I was analizing Shenzhen's situation a bit, because all this critics really made me think a bit.
I divide my reasearch in a few aspects that are essential for the demand of skyscrapers:
1. Population (Density/Groth/Number):
Number:
The population of Shenzhen in 2011 was ~12 million. Today the estimation range is from 14 million to 17 million, I will take the most pessimistic numbers
Density:
Shenzhen is 1991 squarekilometer large, that means the general population density is 14000000/1991=7031 people per square kilometer, New Yorks general population density to compare is 10500 people per square kilometer. But that means nothing because if you look up Shenzhen in google earth you will see that Shenzhen has a huge area which they can't even use, because of mountains. That means that the real population density in the build up area is much higher. You can also compare Manhatten and Futian, the both quaters with the highest population density: Futian has 16000 people per squarekilometer and Manhatten 27000. But the numbers decive again, since the water and parkarea in manhatten is deducted in this calculation and not in the calculation for Futian. That could mean that the population density of Futian and Manhatten is more equal then we think, and manhatten needs a lot of skyscrapers and supertalls as we see ...
Groth:
Shenzhen's population is exploding as you can see in this diagram:

Thats just to 2011, but the groth hasen't stopped if you consider the numbers I said above.
2. Vaccancy Rate
Shenzhens vaccancy rate for apartments is ~10% to compare: the vaccacy rate in NY is ~5% (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...96803X20130709, http://www.iz-shop.de/buch-9222/resi...enzhen-q4-2013). The big diffrence that justifies the vaccancy rate in SZ is that the demand for space is rising because of the population groth and that SZ's people need more and more sqm per person because of the new standart of living. Also as I said above many residental buildings are empty because they are in undeveloped areas.
Sadly I could't find out the vaccancy rate for office buildings in Shenzhen...
3.Economy
I wasn't able to find out new numbers but as far as I know the economy of SZ is growing and more and more companies register in SZ because of Qianhai, what means that they need a lot of office space.

As a result I can say that the facts suggest that SZ really needs many new space (and new space means new supertalls). As long as the economic, living standart and population groth doesn't stop we don't have to worry about an end of the boom, the time when the groths stopps is another story.

Btw., I compared SZ to Manhatten and NY all the time, but the facts are even more impressive if you compare them to other chinese cities. SZ has the greatest population density of all chinese megacities and the economy is one of the strongest.

I hope I was able to diffuse your worrys about the bubble a bit, you don't have to worry now, you have to worry when all of the three groth's stops.

Last edited by TowerVerre:); July 28th, 2014 at 09:14 PM.
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Old August 6th, 2014, 03:29 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crriss View Post
Right now in Shenzhen and not only there are tens if not hundreds of new residential complexes each with 500-2000 apartments partially occupied (some of them much less than 50%) as well as many office buildings in the same situation. Who will occupy all these and create demand for newly built buildings ?
SEG plaza, currently the tallest building in Huaqianbei area, one of the most crowded in the city, probably the second after DongMen, has several unoccupied floors and not even decorated. I've been there not too long ago and saw with my eyes.
If we go just 40-50Km towards east, in Huizou, we find a ghost town, where thousands of building sit empty and the occupancy rate is below 5-10%. All this while the rent price for a decent flat 60-70sqm in Shenzhen cost ~ 1000$, more than many normal families can afford.



My grandparents live in Huizhou, and I travel there regularly for the past few decades, never seen a "ghost town"? I wonder what exactly you mean.

For SEG plaza, yes there are about 3 unfinished floors towards the top - I've been there and used the open windows to take photos. Last time I was there the security was near non-existant and anyone could go to those floors - despite I was the only one curious enough to do so.

But those are abandoned offices that were never finished or used for nearly 20 years, and no one desire to use them for some reason - I wouldn't because SEG is too old and badly designed despite it is tall.
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Old August 6th, 2014, 07:51 PM   #17
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SEG Plaza is empty?
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Old August 6th, 2014, 09:18 PM   #18
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SEG Plaza is empty?
Nonsense. Just a few floors. Probably owned by some company that went bankrupt or has no need for them atm or whatever.
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Old August 6th, 2014, 10:03 PM   #19
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Shenzhen is ranked sixth most livable city in China in 2014 ranking. Zhuhai came first, ahead of Hong Kong which came 2nd in the list

List of most livable cities in China 2014
1. Zhuhai
2. Hong Kong
3. Haikou
4. Sanya
5. Xiamen
6. Shenzhen
7. Zhoushan
8. Wuxi
9. Hangzhou
10. Shanghai

Shenzhen has aldo been named 2nd most competitive city in China, just behind Hong Kong
List of top 10 competitive cities in China

1. Hong Kong
2. Shenzhen
3. Shanghai
4. Taipei
5. Guangzhou
6. Beijing
7. Suzhou
8. Tianjin
9. Foshan
10. Macau


Sources: http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-s...00099&cid=1103 , http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2...-livable-city/ , http://www.thenanfang.com/blog/zhuha...t-competitive/ ,
http://www.szdaily.com/content/2014-...nt_9506639.htm ,
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Old August 7th, 2014, 04:01 PM   #20
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Looking out for Zhuhai. That city is going to be awesome with an amazing skyline in the next 10 years
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