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Old November 22nd, 2014, 08:58 AM   #4421
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Momo1435 View Post
The 787-3 was a 787-8 sized plane with smaller wings with standard winglets, it was supposed to be as wide as a 767 making it compatible with smaller gates at local airports in Japan. In the end the size advantage didn't outweigh the fact that the 787-8 would simply have a better fuel economy even on the short domestic hops. It wasn't the lack of orders that killed the 787-3, the 787-8 was simply too good. Together with both ANA and JAL it was decided to cancel the program and convert the orders the 787-8 on a 1 to 1 basis.

JAL decided later on that they would use their 787-8 on international long haul routes, and in a lesser extend on regional internal routes. The same goes for the 787-9s they have on order. This means they still have not chosen a direct replacement for their domestic 767 and 777 fleet, their ordered A350 are also for their international routes. It seems that they will first replace the older planes in their domestic wide body fleet with newer international 767s and 777s that will be replaced by the 787s and the A350s.

Boeing has been considering a small wide body aircraft as a 737-900 / 757 replacement, both before the 737 MAX was announced and now as a future replacement of the MAX. That won't be a 787-7, a simple shrink of the 787-8 as these kind of shrinks are almost never economically viable, see the A350-800. It would be a 787 based plane with a 2-3-2 configuration with a fuselage slightly smaller then a 767. With 200-220 seats this mini 787 would be just a bit bigger then a 757-200 or a A321neoLR. But the jury is still out if such a design would be better then a large single aisle replacement for the 737/757.
Thanks for clearing it up. I don't remember hearing about a 787-7 so I assumed he was referencing the 787-3, which little knowledge I only learned from the 787's wikipedia page, since all that stuff happened before I started following the aviation industry.

I do remember hearing rumblings about a 757 replacement earlier this year and was wondering what came of it. It would appear to be not much of anything in terms of new developments.
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Old November 22nd, 2014, 09:01 AM   #4422
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Yep, it was the B787-3. Not helping matters is that Boeing is not developing a LR version of the B737MAX... which means the next best hope would be the B787-8 selling like hotcakes.
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Old November 22nd, 2014, 09:27 AM   #4423
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Yep, it was the B787-3. Not helping matters is that Boeing is not developing a LR version of the B737MAX... which means the next best hope would be the B787-8 selling like hotcakes.
That is exactly what Boeing is trying to do, but the 787-8 is not really selling as much as Boeing hopes. But availability is also the big issue here, even after more then 200 deliveries the backlog is still around 850 787s. Pretty much all the remaining delivery slots in this decade have already been sold.
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Old November 22nd, 2014, 11:28 AM   #4424
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In this case, if an airline wants to become a new B787 operator (like initial orders either by Christmas or 2015), how long will the waiting time be before it receives its first Dreamliner?
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Old November 22nd, 2014, 11:04 PM   #4425
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This from last month, but I don't recall it ever being posted here:

Why Boeing Keeps Losing Money on Each 787 Dreamliner

By Justin Bachman
October 22, 2014


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Amid all the fine financial news Boeing (BA) can tout—a record order backlog, robust profit margins, a higher profit outlook—one of the airplane maker’s dreariest performers continues to be its highest-tech, most fuel-efficient product: the 787 Dreamliner.

Boeing continues to lose money on each Dreamliner it builds. The company expects to reach the break-even point on some models turned out by its 787 program in 2015. In the most recent quarter, production costs rose again for the 787, which has become one of Boeing’s most popular models due to its lightweight carbon composite airframe and the resulting lower fuel burn. The program’s deferred production cost, an accounting measure of how efficient an assembly program becomes over time, rose 4 percent, to $25.2 billion, in the third quarter, topping the $25 billion cap Boeing had forecast for the 787 program.

Of course, Boeing officials insist the 787′s assembly costs will continue to drop over time as workers improve the efficiencies of the line and the rate at which they can build new planes. But the airplane—which suffered several delays before its 2011 introduction and then a grounding due to battery fires—remains a critical drag to the commercial airplane division’s financial performance. Wall Street analysts are ready to see black ink in the program and pressed Boeing officials repeatedly on Wednesday, Oct. 22, about how quickly the 787 can stop bleeding cash.
Has anything changed for the 787 Dreamliner in the past month since this article was published?
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Old November 23rd, 2014, 12:14 AM   #4426
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With all the production issues but still managing to increase the production rate to 10 planes per month this quickly it's not that surprising that the costs are still too high.
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Old November 23rd, 2014, 06:41 AM   #4427
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And Boeing still suffer from traveled work, probably the most costly process now.
It takes 2 months or even more to delivery plane since roll out from FAL in Everett. Over a month of traveled work before 1st flight - it's too long. They need to get under 80 days of total production, what gives them about a month for testing and delivery after roll out from FAL.

We should see testing rush in Everett, as Boeing probably wants to deliver as much as 20 787s in December.

LN231 ZA196 JA838J first flight:

JA838J Japan Airlines Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner - C/N 34849 / LN 231 by Woodys Aeroimages, on Flickr

LN236 ZB005 ZK-NZG B2 flight:

ZK-NZG Air New Zealand Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner - C/N 37963 / LN 236 by Woodys Aeroimages, on Flickr

LN238 ZA296 N30913 1st flight:

http://kpae.blogspot.com/2014/11/pai...vember-22.html
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Old November 23rd, 2014, 12:39 PM   #4428
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Boeing confirms that availability was (one of) the reason(s) why Boeing lost the Delta order.
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...0-deal-406345/

According to Flightglobal there are only 12 open production slots for the 787 in 2017, with some of those probably already sold to other customers unknown to the analyst. Boeing offered some 777-200LR as an interim solution but that wasn't enough to win Delta over.


With this Delta order it remains to be seen what the airline will do with their 787-8 order. They inherited this from the Northwest merger, but had deferred the deliveries well into the 2020s. They could cancel them now, but on the other hand they can still take delivery of these 18 787s as the Airbus order won't be sufficient to replace the current complete 767 and 777-200 fleets. Or we might see a conversion of these 787 orders into a larger 737 order.
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Old November 23rd, 2014, 05:04 PM   #4429
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Why did Delta defer the deliveries in the first place? I think I remember reading they inherited some pretty early slots from Nothwest too.
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Old November 23rd, 2014, 05:16 PM   #4430
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Even very early... LN3 and LN4 were originally destined for Northwest.
Why? Delta didn't need them then. Northwest was drown inside Delta, and introducing new type of aircraft when you already will be stuffed with many other aicrafts in day of merger isn't something easy.
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Old November 23rd, 2014, 07:58 PM   #4431
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Northwest was the 1st North American customer in 2005 with the 1st delivery scheduled for August 2008. The 1st deferral couldn't come at a better time for Boeing, as they could built the frames for other early customers instead which had to wait a bit less long with all the delays in the 787 program. Boeing also didn't have to pay Delta compensation for the delays either.

Why they kept on deferring the order might be a more interesting question. Although it was already as early as 2010 when they pushed it back to 2020-2022.
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Old November 24th, 2014, 05:41 AM   #4432
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Soon Airbus A350 XWB Will Meet Boeing 787 Dreamliner in the Sky -- Which One Will Fly Higher?

Nasdaq, the leading tech-based stock exchange in New York, is weighing in on the future of the two lightweight, long-haul wide bodied aircraft, the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350.

Quote:
Remember the epic boxing match between Rocky Balboa and Apollo Creed? That's a clip that probably every American loves to watch. There's a similar duel going on between European aircraft major Airbus and its American rival, Boeing.

Airbus, the dominant player in narrow-body jets, wants to challenge Boeing in the wide-body segment that has been the latter's forte all along. It's made its intent clear with its brand new built-from-scratch A350 XWB aircraft that will soon start flying, and take on Boeing 787 Dreamliner. According to experts, the A350's smooth development and certification processes as well as structural advantages may help the jet become popular very fast. Surely, Boeing won't like that.
Read more here
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Old November 24th, 2014, 08:19 PM   #4433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Momo1435 View Post
Northwest was the 1st North American customer in 2005 with the 1st delivery scheduled for August 2008. The 1st deferral couldn't come at a better time for Boeing, as they could built the frames for other early customers instead which had to wait a bit less long with all the delays in the 787 program. Boeing also didn't have to pay Delta compensation for the delays either.

Why they kept on deferring the order might be a more interesting question. Although it was already as early as 2010 when they pushed it back to 2020-2022.
The CEO of Delta said (back at the time) that they deferred them because he would rather have "proven" older, less efficient planes in his fleet than more efficient planes that haven't got all the bugs worked out yet. That's why he was getting the old MD-80's from everyone, and worked the deal for the Air Tran B717's.

That is why I found it very interesting that now Delta wanted delivery of either the 787 or A350 so quickly. Maybe it shows that the 787 is performing so well that he was afraid of United & American kicking his ass for the next 6+ years? Either way, I am extremely disappointed that they went with Airbus. I recognize it's a business, but considering that Boeing worked with them through challenging times previously, one would think there would be a little more of an effort to stick with Boeing.

I know, I'm naive...
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Old November 25th, 2014, 05:10 AM   #4434
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Originally Posted by CHS787NERD View Post
The CEO of Delta said (back at the time) that they deferred them because he would rather have "proven" older, less efficient planes in his fleet than more efficient planes that haven't got all the bugs worked out yet. That's why he was getting the old MD-80's from everyone, and worked the deal for the Air Tran B717's.

That is why I found it very interesting that now Delta wanted delivery of either the 787 or A350 so quickly. Maybe it shows that the 787 is performing so well that he was afraid of United & American kicking his ass for the next 6+ years? Either way, I am extremely disappointed that they went with Airbus. I recognize it's a business, but considering that Boeing worked with them through challenging times previously, one would think there would be a little more of an effort to stick with Boeing.

I know, I'm naive...
Emirates also canceled 50 a350s .....so a lot of slots opened up.

787 hasnt had that problem with the exception of a few cancellations.
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Old November 25th, 2014, 03:09 PM   #4435
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Air India B787-8 (VT-ANJ) in Singapore
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Old November 25th, 2014, 09:21 PM   #4436
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Emirates also canceled 50 a350s .....so a lot of slots opened up.

787 hasnt had that problem with the exception of a few cancellations.
Hasn't had that problem? Really? Do some research before making such a claim (I'll provide sources to make it easier for you). Here are just a few of the cancellations the 787 program has suffered:
- Air Berlin cancelled an order for 15 787 very recently Source
- Qantas cancelled an order for 35 787-9 in 2012 Source
- China Eastern cancelled an order for 24 787 in 2011 Source
If I recall correctly, Air Pacific (8), Monarch (6), Lion Air(5) and many more also cancelled their orders.

I'm not saying the 787 program is a failure. It's still a success despite those cancellations. It still has orders for more than a thousand 787 even after all those cancellations. Both the a350 and the 787 are actually very successful looking at the number of orders they have accumulated.
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Old November 25th, 2014, 11:16 PM   #4437
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This year so far there where 3 cancellations for the 787, but only one of the cancellations opened up upcoming productions slots. Transaero and Lion Air cancelled their orders for the terrible teens, that's a whole different issue. The Air Berlin cancellation did open up slots, but Boeing sold those straight away. There were some deferrals which might have opened 2017 slots, like the United conversions from the 787-8 to the 787-10. But those might also been taken up by the couple of orders Boeing booked this year or by other existing customers pushing forward deliveries.

The A350 situation was a bit different, so far the orders didn't come in as they did last year. Plus there was the large cancellation from Emirates. But that cancellation didn't free up any slots for Delta as Emirates had already deferred their order into 2019 and beyond. Last years customers had already taken up the delivery slots that became available from this earlier deferral.

The canceling of the A350-800 might have created more available slots. Aircraft Purchase Fleet (Alitalia) cancelled their order outright (12x), Hawaian will be cancelling their order (6x) as part of their conversion to the A330neo. Airbus might have had some slots reserved for Yemenia's A350-800 (10x), an order that is most likely going to be cancelled. Then we also AirAsia publicly announcing that they will probably defer deliveries of the A350-900, this could also end up in a conversion to the A330neo. Plus uncertainty of the Libyan orders, 16 in total with deliveries scheduled to start in 2017.

It's a mix of smart planning by Airbus and uncertainty in the order book which has created the opportunity to provide the delivery slots demanded by Delta. In other words, some positive, some negative, but it does seem to turn out right for Airbus. Same can be said for Boeing, loosing an order because they already have too many orders is not something to feel bad about. But it's still an order lost.

In the end it would have been interesting to see what would have happened if availability was no issue. Would Boeing have taken the order or would it still have gone to Airbus? Apparently it would be a very close race when it comes to performance between the 787-9 and the A350-900. So close that it would have come down solely to pricing. In other words, who would have given Delta the biggest discount.
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Old November 26th, 2014, 02:05 AM   #4438
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Hasn't had that problem? Really? Do some research before making such a claim (I'll provide sources to make it easier for you). Here are just a few of the cancellations the 787 program has suffered:
- Air Berlin cancelled an order for 15 787 very recently Source
- Qantas cancelled an order for 35 787-9 in 2012 Source
- China Eastern cancelled an order for 24 787 in 2011 Source
If I recall correctly, Air Pacific (8), Monarch (6), Lion Air(5) and many more also cancelled their orders.

I'm not saying the 787 program is a failure. It's still a success despite those cancellations. It still has orders for more than a thousand 787 even after all those cancellations. Both the a350 and the 787 are actually very successful looking at the number of orders they have accumulated.
recently ..... the 787 has done pretty well and gotten back on track.
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Old November 26th, 2014, 04:19 PM   #4439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Male View Post
Hasn't had that problem? Really? Do some research before making such a claim (I'll provide sources to make it easier for you). Here are just a few of the cancellations the 787 program has suffered:
- Air Berlin cancelled an order for 15 787 very recently Source
- Qantas cancelled an order for 35 787-9 in 2012 Source
- China Eastern cancelled an order for 24 787 in 2011 Source
If I recall correctly, Air Pacific (8), Monarch (6), Lion Air(5) and many more also cancelled their orders.

I'm not saying the 787 program is a failure. It's still a success despite those cancellations. It still has orders for more than a thousand 787 even after all those cancellations. Both the a350 and the 787 are actually very successful looking at the number of orders they have accumulated.
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Originally Posted by Buffalomatt1027 View Post
recently ..... the 787 has done pretty well and gotten back on track.
Air Pacific went through an overhaul of their airline. Now known as Fiji Airways and they order A330s.
Lion Air cancelled their order of terrible teens along with Transaero.
Never knew Monarch had an order for 787s.
China Eastern placed an order for more 737s so that made Boeing happy. Plus the Chinese Airlines favor the A330s more than any other long haul aircraft.
Air Berlin is in financial mess and needs to get their act together.
Qantas is in financial mess too but i am surprised that Jetstar did not keep some of their 787-9s on order to help with the long haul.

With each order being canceled Boeing moved up some of the customers delivery slots and also Delta differed their orders to well past 2020. So it is only a matter of time before they cancel their orders to favor the A330/A350.
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Old November 26th, 2014, 06:20 PM   #4440
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Plus the Chinese Airlines favor the A330s more than any other long haul aircraft. Qantas is in financial mess too but i am surprised that Jetstar did not keep some of their 787-9s on order to help with the long haul.
Isn't 8 a lucky number in Asian culture explaining why literally every Asian carrier ordered the B787 (except for CX)...
Personally, Qantas need the B787 more than JQ... Plus QF passengers would take better care of the aircraft than JQ bogan passengers...
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