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Old January 30th, 2015, 01:00 AM   #41
Verso
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aswnl View Post
There's much more that defines whether there's need for a motorway: traffic safety, economic growth, relieve of traffic congestion.
Of course, but I think this thread is about whether countries can afford their motorways.
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Old January 30th, 2015, 02:58 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Verso View Post
Of course, but I think this thread is about whether countries can afford their motorways.
If that's the question, then the table is using the wrong data. The affordability of the motorways doesn't depend directly on the the number of cars, but on the size of the economy.
The amount of cars could depend on the size of the economy, but in the case of Cuba, it doesn't, because of the boycot.
If you want to know if a country can afford its motorways, you have to look at the real infrastructure expenses and the real size of the country's economy.
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Old January 30th, 2015, 03:48 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by verfmeer View Post
If that's the question, then the table is using the wrong data. The affordability of the motorways doesn't depend directly on the the number of cars, but on the size of the economy.
The amount of cars could depend on the size of the economy, but in the case of Cuba, it doesn't, because of the boycot.
If you want to know if a country can afford its motorways, you have to look at the real infrastructure expenses and the real size of the country's economy.
Cuba could import cars from countries other than the USA. The problem is that most people earn less than 1$ a day, so cars are a luxury for the general public.
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In real life, electronic toll collection was first introduced in Bergen, Norway in 1986, and well into the 21th century many countries still struggle to implement it.
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Old January 30th, 2015, 07:08 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Verso View Post
Of course, but I think this thread is about whether countries can afford their motorways.
Which does not depend on population or surface but on costs, e.g. construction costs, maintenance costs and economical benefit.
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Old January 30th, 2015, 09:21 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by italystf View Post
Cuba could import cars from countries other than the USA. The problem is that most people earn less than 1$ a day, so cars are a luxury for the general public.
Cuba:
- One-way Ticket (Local Transport) - 0.04 $
- Average Monthly Disposable Salary (After Tax) - 24.93 $

Spain:
- One-way Ticket (Local Transport) - 1.59 $
- Average Monthly Disposable Salary (After Tax) - 1,359 $

The real salary in Cuba is in fact (1.59 / 0.04) * 24.93 $ = 991 $ which means that cubans live with a value of 32 $/day not 1 $!

Regarding imports, as long as they can maintain their fleet of 607 675 cars with local resources, imports are not needed.
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Old January 30th, 2015, 10:07 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by usbhub View Post
Cuba:
- One-way Ticket (Local Transport) - 0.04 $
- Average Monthly Disposable Salary (After Tax) - 24.93 $

Spain:
- One-way Ticket (Local Transport) - 1.59 $
- Average Monthly Disposable Salary (After Tax) - 1,359 $

The real salary in Cuba is in fact (1.59 / 0.04) * 24.93 $ = 991 $ which means that cubans live with a value of 32 $/day not 1 $!

Regarding imports, as long as they can maintain their fleet of 607 675 cars with local resources, imports are not needed.
Yes, but if they want to import cars from abroad (eg. Europe), they need to pay the full retail price.
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In real life, electronic toll collection was first introduced in Bergen, Norway in 1986, and well into the 21th century many countries still struggle to implement it.
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Old January 30th, 2015, 10:52 PM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by verfmeer View Post
If that's the question, then the table is using the wrong data. The affordability of the motorways doesn't depend directly on the the number of cars, but on the size of the economy ....
If you want to know if a country can afford its motorways, you have to look at the real infrastructure expenses and the real size of the country's economy.
If you want calculations based on the economy then we can make them. Assuming that Germany, for its 3,730,261 million US$ GDP, has exactly the right amount of highways, 12845 km, then the Netherlands should have 2939 km, more than it possesses, while Hungary just 447 km, much less than it really has.

Km highway some countries should have based on the size of their economy (GDP):
Country----- GDP(mil. US$) Km highway
============ ============= ==========
*Germany*--- ----3,730,261 -----12845
Netherlands- ------853,539 ------2939
Poland------ ------525,863 ------1810
Portugal---- ------227,324 -------782
Hungary----- ------129,989 -------447

See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._%28nominal%29 for GDP

Km highway some countries should have based on the number of cars:
Country----- -----Cars---- Km highway
============ ============= ===========
*Germany*--- ---50,184,000 ------12845
Netherlands- ----9,340,006 -------2390
Poland------ ---22,024,697 -------5637
Portugal---- ----8,730,885 -------2234
Hungary----- ----3,608,834 --------924


In conclusion, the predictions for the total length of the motorways network, calculated starting from the size of their economies (GDPs), tell that Poland, Portugal and Hungary have already built too many highways. These evaluations are much worse than those based on the number of cars.

Last edited by usbhub; January 30th, 2015 at 11:00 PM.
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Old January 30th, 2015, 10:55 PM   #48
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Germany may have just the right length of motorways, but that doesn't mean it can't afford more. Why did you pick Germany anyway?
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Old January 31st, 2015, 12:04 AM   #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Verso View Post
Why did you pick Germany anyway?
Considering that:

L(i) = the length of motorways in the country "i"
GDP(i) = the Gross Domestic Product of country "i"

where i = Germany, France, Spain, UK and Italy, a group of representative European countries,

instead of equations like:

GDP (Germany) / L(Germany) = GDP (Hungary) / L(Hungary) where L(Hungary) is the unknown,

I could have taken an average:

[ GDP(1)/L(1)) + ... + GDP(n)/L(n) ] / n = GDP (Hungary) / L(Hungary) and solve for L(Hungary).

Even calculating starting from this average, the length of motorways for Hungary (and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe) will result shorter than it is know.
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Old January 31st, 2015, 01:54 AM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by usbhub View Post
Cuba:
- One-way Ticket (Local Transport) - 0.04 $
- Average Monthly Disposable Salary (After Tax) - 24.93 $

Spain:
- One-way Ticket (Local Transport) - 1.59 $
- Average Monthly Disposable Salary (After Tax) - 1,359 $

The real salary in Cuba is in fact (1.59 / 0.04) * 24.93 $ = 991 $ which means that cubans live with a value of 32 $/day not 1 $!

Regarding imports, as long as they can maintain their fleet of 607 675 cars with local resources, imports are not needed.
But this is not correct - you are comparing public transit only to obtain PPP!

But see for example here, used car prices : http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-25595674

Cuba:
- Peugeot 508 - 262 000 $
- Average Monthly Disposable Salary (After Tax) - 24.93 $

Spain:
- Peugeot 508 - 27 300 $ (ref peugeot.es for basismodel and USD/EUR exchange)
- Average Monthly Disposable Salary (After Tax) - 1,359 $
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Old January 31st, 2015, 08:52 AM   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanadzie View Post
Cuba:
- Peugeot 508 - 262 000 $
This price is a masked form of embargo against Peugeot and other car manufacturers.

The GDP/capita in Cuba is higher than in other countries that have enough new cars (see the table below).

GDP/capita for some countries:
============== =========
--Country----- GDP Int$/capita
============== =========
Cuba---------- ----18796
Venezuela----- ----18198
Belarus------- ----17620
Lebanon------- ----17174
Bulgaria------ ----15732
Iran---------- ----15590
Brazil-------- ----15037
Iraq---------- ----14951
Montenegro---- ----14132
Serbia-------- ----13020
S. Africa----- ----12507
China--------- ----11907
Jordan-------- ----11785
Macedonia----- ----11612
Egypt--------- ----11089
Bosnia-------- -----9536
Ukraine------- -----8790

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...%29_per_capita

There would not be a problem for Cubans to have as much (new) cars/1000 people as China, Serbia, Belarus, etc.. The problem is that cars waste too much resources. Who has a greater standard of living, one without a car working 2 km away from where he lives or somebody working in the same place, having the same job but living 25 km away and being obliged to travel each day by car at least 50 km?

Last edited by usbhub; January 31st, 2015 at 06:26 PM.
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Old January 31st, 2015, 09:34 AM   #52
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I don't trust those numbers at all.
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Old January 31st, 2015, 11:58 AM   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by usbhub View Post
Assuming that Germany, for its 3,730,261 million US$ GDP, has exactly the right amount of highways, 12845 km
Why do you use "amount of highways" now? I guess you mean lengths of motorways, don't you?

Assuming........ Why should Germany be the benchmark? I absolutely don't agree.

In addtion, what's the definition of motorway (German: Autobahn)? Highway means main road. Hence, you should add tenthousands km of 2-laned German Bundesstraßen too (there are many with AADT > 20,000 vehicles/day; if I'm not mistaken no. 99, B27 north of Heilbronn should be the busiest 2-laned B road with 46,300 vehicles/day in 2010, thereof 2000 trucks).

At minimum, you should add the German yellow Autobahns (I already wrote that in the Romanian thread but it was deleted). Anyway, German yellow Autobahns have the same (or partial better) road standard than blue Autobahns. The length of blue Autobahns is about 12,800km. The length of yellow Autobahns is more than 2,000km.

Your conclusion, the German Autobahn network has not the right length can't be true because Germany itself builds and plans an extension of its network! More than 200km are currently u/c, more than 800km are planned. You have to use minimum 16,000km for your calculation subject to the condition that you show why the German network can be called "sufficient" and can be used as benchmark!
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Old January 31st, 2015, 03:38 PM   #54
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For people who do not like Germany as a reference, the average GDP/km highway for a few countries can be taken. However, the final results will not differ too much from the estimates based only on Germany as a model to follow.

The average GDP/ km highway of fife important countries in Europe:
=========== ================ ============== ===========
Country---- GDP mil. USD---- Km highway---- GDP/km----
=========== ================ ============== ===========
Germany---- ---------3730261 ---------12845 -------290
France----- ---------2806432 ---------11392 -------246
UK--------- ---------2678455 ----------6016 -------445
Italy------ ---------2149485 ----------6661 -------323
Spain------ ---------1358263 ---------16900 --------80
=========== ================ ============== ==========
Average---- ---------------- -------------- -------277


The estimated total length of the motorways network, for a few European countries, based on the average GDP/km highway of Germany, France, UK, Italy and Spain which is 277 mil. USD/km:
=============== ================ ==============
Country-------- GDP mil. USD---- Km highway----
=============== ================ ==============
Germany-------- ---------3730261 ---------13466
France--------- ---------2806432 ---------10131
UK------------- ---------2678455 ----------9669
Italy---------- ---------2149485 ----------7760
Spain---------- ---------1358263 ----------4903
Netherlands---- ----------853539 ----------3081
Poland--------- ----------525863 ----------1898
Portugal------- ----------227324 -----------821
Hungary-------- ----------129989 -----------469


As you can remark, the calculations show (see also the large table in the first post) that Spain, Portugal and Hungary should have build much less motorways than they have now.

Last edited by usbhub; January 31st, 2015 at 03:48 PM.
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Old January 31st, 2015, 03:49 PM   #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by usbhub View Post
As you can see the calculations show (see also the big table in the first post) that Spain, Portugal and Hungary should have build much less km of motorways than they have now.
Aside from exceptional assumptions... Infrastructure is built in advance to provide a technical possibilty of economical growth. So you don't expect any economical growth in these countries? You don't grant them a better economy/GDP?
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Old January 31st, 2015, 04:45 PM   #56
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(Um, is it possible we're all taking this thread a bit too seriously? At this point, I'm just lurking, slightly bemused.)
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Old January 31st, 2015, 06:05 PM   #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichiH View Post
So you don't expect any economical growth in these countries? You don't grant them a better economy/GDP?
Hungary:
GDP - 129,989 mil. USD
Km highway estimated from its GDP - 469 km (see my last post)
Km highway Hungary already has - 1361 km

Hungary would really need 1361 km when its GDP reaches 129,989 mil. USD * (1361/469) = 377,217 mil. USD which means that Hungary has to pass in front of: Venezuela, South Africa, Denmark, Singapore, Hong Kong, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, New Zealand, Romania, Ukraine, Kuwait, regarding the total GDP.
see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._%28nominal%29
I do not believe that such a spectacular growth will happen in Hungary any time soon.

Motorways deteriorate in time, so you do not build them now just because some people believe they will be of real need after 2065!
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