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Old January 25th, 2016, 11:36 PM   #21
totaleclipse1985
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uaarkson View Post
Two things:

1) China's skyscraper boom will be coming to a halt, either soon or in the coming years.

2) NYC will continue to maximize heights with a lack of buildable land. But it won't ever match Chinese cities in raw numbers without massive rezoning of entire portions of the 5 boroughs.
to 1) China will move 300million people into cities over the next 15 years. There will be no stop to skyscraper building any time soon - perhaps in super high end signature projects if the economy cools but not a halt of construction in the 200s range.

to 2) the same is true for Shenzhen - it is "sandwiched" between HK, Dongguan, Huizhou and the Pearl River. Every new piece of buildable land has to be created either by costly redevelopment of by costly reclamation from the Pearl River or by the even costlier leveling of entire small mountains.
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Old January 25th, 2016, 11:49 PM   #22
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ed500 ^ Fed us the biggest bowl of shit I have ever seen in my life. According to him CTBUH published this.
Shenyang 65
Shenzhen 47
Mumbai 45
Chongqing 43
New York 37
Chengdu 29
Jakarta 26
Toronto 26
Dubai 23
Tianjin 23
Dubai has 100's of 150 meter plus buildings not 23. Matter of fact by 2020 it will have more than 23 completed supertalls. Also New York city has around 260 150 Meter Plus Buildings. Also notice that his list doesn't even include Hong Kong which has more 150 Meter Plus buildings than any other city in the world.
Here is CTBUH's Real List
1Hong Kong 373
2 New York City United States 260
3 Dubai 180
4 Shanghai 135
5 Chicago 117
6 Tokyo 116
7 Chongqing China 103
8 Guangzhou China 98
9 Jakarta Indonesia 88
10 Singapore 74
Shenzen China 74
12 Shenyang China 73
13 Chengdu China 70
Seoul 70
15 Metro Manila 57
Mumbai 57
17 Bangkok 51
Tianjin China Tianjin Skyline 51
19 Busan South Korea Busan 48
20 Kuala Lumpur 47
NOTE THAT THIS LIST WAS FROM LIKE 2012.
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Old January 25th, 2016, 11:52 PM   #23
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I Believe Shenzhen China will stay strong with growth and construction and I believe after Hudson Yards and Nordstrom Tower, 111 West 57th St is all built there will be a big low in New York City Development. I also think Dubai will continue to build at a steady but slower pace in the future, meaning more 150 meter buildings and less 400 meter buildings. I also think we are going to see a big boom in South Eastern Asian Cities such as Jakarta and Bangkok.
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Old January 26th, 2016, 11:21 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DUBAI10000 View Post
ed500 ^ Fed us the biggest bowl of shit I have ever seen in my life. According to him CTBUH published this.
Shenyang 65
Shenzhen 47
Mumbai 45
Chongqing 43
New York 37
Chengdu 29
Jakarta 26
Toronto 26
Dubai 23
Tianjin 23
Dubai has 100's of 150 meter plus buildings not 23. Matter of fact by 2020 it will have more than 23 completed supertalls. Also New York city has around 260 150 Meter Plus Buildings. Also notice that his list doesn't even include Hong Kong which has more 150 Meter Plus buildings than any other city in the world.
Here is CTBUH's Real List
1Hong Kong 373
2 New York City United States 260
3 Dubai 180
4 Shanghai 135
5 Chicago 117
6 Tokyo 116
7 Chongqing China 103
8 Guangzhou China 98
9 Jakarta Indonesia 88
10 Singapore 74
Shenzen China 74
12 Shenyang China 73
13 Chengdu China 70
Seoul 70
15 Metro Manila 57
Mumbai 57
17 Bangkok 51
Tianjin China Tianjin Skyline 51
19 Busan South Korea Busan 48
20 Kuala Lumpur 47
NOTE THAT THIS LIST WAS FROM LIKE 2012.
His list was for buildings UC right now - not total number. Perhaps you would like to read people's postings carefully before calling them "pile of shit" in the future
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Old January 26th, 2016, 11:31 PM   #25
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I actually think (and hope) Chicago will soon come back in the game, a boom is on it's way and overdue although I don't think it will compete with cities like NYC or a few Asian ones.
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Old January 27th, 2016, 12:18 AM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by totaleclipse1985 View Post
to 2) the same is true for Shenzhen - it is "sandwiched" between HK, Dongguan, Huizhou and the Pearl River. Every new piece of buildable land has to be created either by costly redevelopment of by costly reclamation from the Pearl River or by the even costlier leveling of entire small mountains.
Shenzhen is actually more tight on land than New York is. Also, Shenzhen is a pressure release valve for Hong Kong. Right now the Hong Kong property market is a pressure cooker. There so much demand but there is no literally place the put it.
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Old January 27th, 2016, 07:20 AM   #27
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Quote:
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I actually think (and hope) Chicago will soon come back in the game, a boom is on it's way and overdue although I don't think it will compete with cities like NYC or a few Asian ones.
Chicago's issue is that its local economy is relatively anaemic. It has one of the lowest population and job growth rates of any large city in the US and corporations are moving out of Illinois due to cost, regulatory and demographic reasons. While the core remains stronger, the level of investment and economic viability in the long-term is a little more shaky.
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Old February 2nd, 2016, 05:51 AM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geoking66 View Post
Chicago's issue is that its local economy is relatively anaemic. It has one of the lowest population and job growth rates of any large city in the US and corporations are moving out of Illinois due to cost, regulatory and demographic reasons. While the core remains stronger, the level of investment and economic viability in the long-term is a little more shaky.
Thats mostly false. And it is loosing poverty level people, and picking up six figure people, so yeah.

Its biggest problem is shit tons of flat land to build things going on for miles. The biggest limiter causing higher prices is wanting waterfront access, but there are miles of coast to build on.

However, parking lots are getting filled in rapidly. Prices could start to spike once the last few are used up.
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Old February 2nd, 2016, 07:38 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Number5 View Post
Thats mostly false. And it is loosing poverty level people, and picking up six figure people, so yeah.

Its biggest problem is shit tons of flat land to build things going on for miles. The biggest limiter causing higher prices is wanting waterfront access, but there are miles of coast to build on.

However, parking lots are getting filled in rapidly. Prices could start to spike once the last few are used up.
This... plus from what I've heard the metro is growing but the city proper slowly losing people for the time being.
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Old February 3rd, 2016, 07:18 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Number5 View Post
Thats mostly false. And it is loosing poverty level people, and picking up six figure people, so yeah.

Its biggest problem is shit tons of flat land to build things going on for miles. The biggest limiter causing higher prices is wanting waterfront access, but there are miles of coast to build on.

However, parking lots are getting filled in rapidly. Prices could start to spike once the last few are used up.
Job growth is just 0.6% annually. That's really bad for a major metro area in the US, especially when most are hitting the 2% mark and upwards of 3-4% for high-growth areas. Professional services growth of 1.5% is considerably lower than in peer cities as well. I'm not denying that there are structural shifts, but the overall economic environment isn't good. Illinois is in shambles, the city is notorious for corruption and other gateway markets are more attractive for investors.
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Old February 3rd, 2016, 09:23 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DUBAI10000 View Post
I Believe Shenzhen China will stay strong with growth and construction and I believe after Hudson Yards and Nordstrom Tower, 111 West 57th St is all built there will be a big low in New York City Development. I also think Dubai will continue to build at a steady but slower pace in the future, meaning more 150 meter buildings and less 400 meter buildings. I also think we are going to see a big boom in South Eastern Asian Cities such as Jakarta and Bangkok.
I really don't see that happening, like really.
With the oil era in its last death throws it's middle eastern skylines that are the most likely to have rapid slowdown in construction. New York fundamentals are solid so it will always be building tall
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Old February 6th, 2016, 09:34 PM   #32
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I really don't see that happening, like really.
With the oil era in its last death throws it's middle eastern skylines that are the most likely to have rapid slowdown in construction. New York fundamentals are solid so it will always be building tall
NYC's fundamentals are solid because nothing is built there for the sake of it. With the massive supply being built atm, there will be less demand. I, too, believe it will cool down, but obviously not permanently, demand will increase again steadily. It's a great place to have an office and a great place to have an apartment so $$$.

Mumbai has been mentioned a few times and I can't comment on it, news from India seems to be less readily available than from other developing countries. I know the names of districts in Chinese cities but India still seems like another planet. Any local, what's going on in Mumbai exactly and how do you see it developing?
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Old February 6th, 2016, 10:03 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by droneriot View Post
Mumbai has been mentioned a few times and I can't comment on it, news from India seems to be less readily available than from other developing countries. I know the names of districts in Chinese cities but India still seems like another planet. Any local, what's going on in Mumbai exactly and how do you see it developing?
Im not indian but Mumbai will boom for the same reasons that New york did a 100 years ago,Mumbai is the richest,most developed finance centre on the Indian subcontinent and a destination of migrants from all over a nation of 1.3 billion people.
Most of Mumbai is located on the island of Salsette
(population 15 million) which is directly comparable to Manhattan in population density only being 10 times more populated.
With so much wealth and people concentrated on one place and nowhere to grow but up the result should be pretty clear.
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Old February 6th, 2016, 11:12 PM   #34
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What are we classifying boom as?

Over 300m?
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Old February 7th, 2016, 12:57 AM   #35
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Undeniably both Shenzhen and New York will continue to grow.

Dubai, already home to the world's busiest international airport and 9th busiest container port (undergoing further major expansion) will also continue to grow despite dwindling oil production, boosted also by other sectors and industries like international trade, commerce and tourism.
Considering only aviation, it is projected that the sector's economic contribution to Dubai's GDP will be 37% by 2020 compared to approximately 25% today.

However, the 'boom' could well come from from elsewhere. Here I'm talking especially about cities from the South East Asian belt namely Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Jakarta and even HCMC.

Many Chinese cities, some currently off the radar, will also undergo massive boom. One notable example is Urumqi in Western China which lies on the newly implemented 'Silk Route'. If it can capitalise fully on this trade network with huge potential, the city no doubt will undergo massive growth.

India with its high economic growth and exploding population and high population density will trigger large scale construction in some cities like Mumbai and also maybe New Delhi and Bangalore.
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Old February 7th, 2016, 08:32 PM   #36
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Truly hope and pray for the upcoming future Chicago Supertall/Megatall Skyscraper boom. It is time for Chicago to start building some World class skyscraper as we all know they can build. Think that Chicago will become the first city in the US and all the rest Americas to have their first Megatall skyscraper. This would send a message to the rest of the World that Chicago is back for sure on the right track.
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Old February 11th, 2016, 08:52 AM   #37
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hopefully Toronto. But most likely dubai or china.
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Old February 11th, 2016, 06:45 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DUBAI10000 View Post
I also think we are going to see a big boom in South Eastern Asian Cities such as Jakarta and Bangkok.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KavirajG View Post

However, the 'boom' could well come from from elsewhere. Here I'm talking especially about cities from the South East Asian belt namely Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Jakarta and even HCMC.


Agree.. if not China, it has to be south east Asia..
But I'll put KL ahead of Bangkok. Thai economy is the slowest among the 6 major ASEAN economies for a few years now... it could have an effect on construction "booming".


And yes HCMC is gearing towards a boom as well..

Everyone seems to be forgetting Manila.. it has the biggest skyscraper boom in the last 5 years or more. But sadly no supertalls..
Same with Singapore... might be the height restrictions...
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Old February 12th, 2016, 06:51 AM   #39
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hopefully Toronto.
Does seem to be one of the very few Western cities where building tall is something that actually happens, not just one never built proposal after another. Very present in the Skyscrapers section of the WDN Forums. Possible that it could go further.

For Western cities I also like to keep Melbourne in the back of my head. Dunno how much the country's stubborn economic focus on the ever shifting mining sector affects the city's real estate market, but I believe under the right conditions it could turn into something any time.
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Old February 13th, 2016, 11:52 AM   #40
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Agree.. if not China, it has to be south east Asia..
But I'll put KL ahead of Bangkok. Thai economy is the slowest among the 6 major ASEAN economies for a few years now... it could have an effect on construction "booming".
Thai public sector had always been very strong. Bangkok still getting around 200 projects every year, and while Thai GDP growth is the slowest in the region at 3%, Thai GDP per capita (ppp) increases as one of the fastest among major ASEAN economies, more so than countries that has higher GDP growth.

There's also a lot of new 200+ skyscrapers and some supertalls popping up.

Here's a list of all the new 200+ skyscrapers currently u/c
  1. IconSiam Tower II: 268M
  2. ESSE : 254M
  3. Waldorf Astoria + Magnolias Ratchaprasong : 242M
  4. Menam Residence : 239M
  5. Marque : 222M
  6. Singha Headquartiers : 217M
  7. Nimit : 209M

and here's a list of all 300+ supertalls currently u/c
  1. Super Tower : 615M
  2. IconSiam Tower I : 315M
  3. MahaNakhon : 314M
  4. Four Seasons Hotel : 305M
  5. Soontareeya 300+M

And more will be revealed and launching this year..

“The property market will grow by 5-10 percent nationwide this year, especially in greater Bangkok, thanks to the government’s investment in infrastructure projects,”


http://www.cbre.co.th/propertynews/d...h-of-launches/
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